Author Topic: Registry winner include panda coin collectors  (Read 8971 times)

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Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« on: January 14, 2018, 08:13:34 AM »
Congratulation to Russ736 for putting together amazing collection of coins besides the top 1/4 gold panda set.

Another collector was also recognized for his silver kilo set. 

https://www.ngccoin.com/news/article/6361/

Having had a month to reflect on the state of the market without being much involved in the transaction side I have noticed a few trends and counter trends.

1) Investors selling collections to go all in on cyrtos.  Tired of flat returns for years and dwindling opportunities to buy (very little offered) or sell (harder to ship to China).

2) Gold is making strong run during the last month, many believe with stock market set to top, gold bullion run will take it to new highs in 2018, if it breaks $1400 I will be on board.

3) Yuan is getting stronger as capital controls make it harder to export currency except for one road, one belt projects.  This trend is particularly bullish and is the main reason I got involved with mcc back in 2007.

4) The combination of 1-3, is getting me very interested in being a net buyer of mcc vs being a huge net seller since June of 2017.  Only concern is who to buy from, all weak hands have sold alongside me last year, now only strong hands, few strong dealers and very few closet collections exist in the US.

5) The final wild card is master set demand for 2018, how many sets will be ordered and what will happen if gold breaks $1400.  Looking forward to Long Beach show as it will be good indicator of the market to come, if strong mainland presence at show it will bode well for the year and may create some spectacular returns for sleeper coins.

Interesting auction, they minted 3,500 of these physical brass coins in 2011, one just auctioned for double its bitcoin value.  They sold for about $50 dollars back in 2011, with 1 bitcoin included.
https://m.ebay.com/itm/FULLY-FUNDED-2011-Casascius-1-BTC-Series-2-Physical-Bitcoin-ANACS-grade-MS-65-/322986321601

They even made 1oz gold coin loaded with 1000 BTC.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Casascius_physical_bitcoins

Happy New Year.

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2018, 09:47:07 AM »
Thanks for another great analysis.


1) Investors selling collections to go all in on cyrtos.  Tired of flat returns for years and dwindling opportunities to buy (very little offered) or sell (harder to ship to China).


No doubt you've read that many people are buying bitcoin with credit card:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-11/new-survey-reveals-staggering-number-people-are-buying-bitcoin-their-credit-cards
I remembered your comment that when people start to 'invest' with credit card debt, that's when price topped.  I'm interest to see how this all turn out--in tears most likely.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2018, 11:03:09 AM »
You are correct market tops happen when late comers buy with credit cards.  Looking forward to that day again in mcc, as it will signal time to get out. 

For cryptos credit cards are unfortunately one of the easiest way to buy, because many banks refuse to send or receive wires from exchanges.  It take me 7 days for Wells Fargo to process my ACH to US based exchanges.  Even wires can take 3 days to clear.  95% of the cyrtos are owned by 4% of the participants and these participants are up huge, the remaining 96% of the owners are likely to take big losses when the market turns, so bottom line is if you don’t already have millions in profits, you are at risk to lose a lot if you get too greedy and hold for long term.  Right hundreds of thousands of new customers are being added, so many more will join the party before the music will stop.  Goldman is calling bitcoin the new gold, this will bring a lot of new customers.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2018, 08:04:08 AM »
Hard to believe people are mortgaging their homes and selling their gold/silver or MCC to buy bitcoins.      Most people i talk to want nothing to do w/ Chinese money even when they know China is the world's #1 economy and they own the gold.     The West is brain dead (maybe due to fake news?).      The collector friends of mine are happy because they can see the light and they love Chinese coins/medals now.  Their only complaint is lack of cash to buy.    The collector friends of mine that have $hundreds of thousands or millions in mining stock, cash, etc... are very, very small buyers....

4)  Is the US that low on MCC inventory?     

People really pay that much for physical bitcoins?     One born every minute....

From my low viewpoint it looks like what the posts say here, Vintage and circ coins are moving up while MCC is flat.     Makes sense the Chinese or other buyers would want a first date 1890 silver dragon or 1955 circ coin   vs   1979 MCC.      MCC will take off in time too.     The market could be ready to bust open but the Manipulators may have another knockdown or 2 in bullion price soon also.   Time will tell.......

Offline jc888888888

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2018, 05:17:25 PM »
  :)    Warren Buffet says he would buy 5 year puts on every Crypto currency out there :) with a very high degree of confidence .

  I have owned Berkshire Hathaway shares for close to 20 years and never have sold a dime,s worth ..it has treated me darn good....I will stick with Warren. Cyrpto will end badly....  every time it goes up the 4% that have million s sell into the move and it freezes coinbase. notice the lower high,s constantly being made ..sure sign of net sellers  and late people to the party ..... creating the new lower high,s it is closing in on a crash.... once it bust below 10K  next stop ZERO   

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2018, 06:06:17 AM »
Everyone knows it will end in tears, anything speculative that isn't backed by fundamentals always does.  It is the interim period of moving assets from elite 4% who own 97% of all cryptocurrencies to the masses is the process that will be interesting and filled with opportunity.  Bitcoin was $31 in July 2011, by December it was $2, today it is $12,000, a year from now it could drop to $2,000 and then rally to $200,000, nobody knows, which is why it is a traders dream and longer term holders nightmare. 

The blockchain technology will create true wealth, so those that find opportunities to create these companies will do just fine. 

Warren is too old to learn new tricks.  He missed all the FANG stocks that are worth multiples of berkshire over 15 year period vs berkshire 50 year period. He did finally buy some Apple at $109 in 2016, but thought it was overvalued from $2 in 2004 through $100 in 2015.  He didn't even own microsoft despite being buddies with Bill. 

If you are your 60s Warren way is the correct approach, but in your 20-40s you need to play what is working now and make many shifts as technology disrupts everything.  I certainly wouldn't want to open a bricks and mortar coin store right now, but 50 years ago that would have made you millions by now. 

Offline jc888888888

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2018, 07:15:29 AM »
You have valid points Arif as always ..... block-chain technology is extraordinary and revolutionary  bit coin is simply not the way to invest in it IMHO  ,  now on to Warren Buffet :)  he has doubled the S&P return since 1965 no one can claim that record:) and did it safely with only a negative return in a couple of years in that 50 year time span.Overall Gain 1.9million % vs S&P500 12,700% pretty impressive
   Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-2016 ............................ Warren 20.8%     S&P 500 9.7%
   Overall Gain – 1964-2016 ............................................... Warren 1,972,595%    S&P 500 12,717%
Lets talk about FANG stocks(full disclosure I own them all)
Lets pick one: the most famous of them all IMHO APPLE  that you mention
If you invested $1000 in the IPO of APPLE in 1980 your $1000 would be worth $394,000.00 if you reinvested Dividends and took in account stock splits.Pretty Darn good
NOW : Now lets take a look at washed up Warren:) 1980 you invest $1000 in Berkshire Hathaway you got $510,808.00 today:)
Why I admire Buffet? he is an opportunist extraordinaire: lets take 2008 financial crisis : people thought the banking world was going to end :) What does he do he tries to buy all of Bank of America for $5 a share:) .THE BEST PART : He takes this huge position with a loan to BOA @10% interest and a massive amount of Warrants that he can exercise or not exercise to buy stock At apx $6  the guy smells blood in the water as good or better than anyone :)  IS he the absolute best place to invest .....who knows?? but if you want relative safety and pretty darn good returns  it does not hurt to tuck a few bucks away with the old man:)


Offline jc888888888

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2018, 07:44:31 AM »
Dont get the wrong impression here ...... If you are a very nimble astute trader and can take on risk you can make millions trading crypto in the next who knows what time period . Arif is absolutely right.  Anything that swings 25% in a day is a traders DREAM. If you trade cyrto their is nothing more volatile..... again traders dream:) .You better have HUGE DISCIPLINE and clear a position daily in my humble opinion ....you never know if you are going to wake up, up 50% or down 50%:)   

Offline bonke

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #8 on: January 16, 2018, 11:36:01 AM »
Arif

I know little or nothing about cryptocurrencies.  I do not even know enough to get in trouble. 

If you are participating as a long-term investor or day-trader, you have opened one or more accounts to facilitate the transactions.  is it possible to protect your money in the account from loss while it is not invested in one of the cryptocurrency products?  Or is the money at risk by just being in the account needed to facilitate the purchase and sale of the various products?

As a stock investor, I open an account with a brokerage house, deposit money and purchase stock.  During the time of ownership, I have a risk of movement in price.  Then, when I sell the stock, it takes three days to complete the sale.  During this three day period, I am permitted to re-invest the money, but I am not permitted to withdraw the money.  If something happens to my brokerage house in the interim, I have some government insurance to hopefully protect me from loss.  If my account balance in more than the government insurance, the brokerage house has purchased additional insurance which will hopefully protect my excess balance.

From my comments, it is obvious that I do not know what the cryptocurrency traders are doing or how they are doing it.  I do not know the risks they are taking and i certainly do not know how they are protecting against these risks.   

Mark Bonke

Offline ccl

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #9 on: January 16, 2018, 12:53:30 PM »
Alternative cryptocurrencies are generally purchased with (and priced in terms of) bitcoin. You can then change the btc back to fiat at one of the gateway exchanges that facilitate this. Coinbase is the best known, Gemini is a better alternative.

The nature of this internet money means that it is fast. There is little to no delay in switching between cryptocurrencies as you go in and out of bitcoin each time. Similarly it is fast switching back any profits to USD.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #10 on: January 16, 2018, 04:29:21 PM »
I have been trading future for more than 30 years and watching bitcoin future since CME started it on Dec.17, 2017. Attached are charts for BTCF18 contract from 12/17/2017 to today. For comparison, chart for 30 year Treasury bond (USH18) also attached for the same period.

The margin requirement for bitcoin contract (5 bitcoins/contract) is $88,900 while margin requirement for Treasury bond is $2,750. In other words, you can trade 32 contracts of Treasury bond with the same amount of money for one bitcoin contract. If you short bitcoin and Treasury bond from 12/17/2017 to today, the profit for bitcoin trade is $36,685 ((18782-11445) x 5), while Treasury bond trade nets $113,600 ((154.05-150.41) x 1,000 x 32). IMO, no knowledgeable future trader will trade bitcoin future at current margin requirement. It is just not cost-effective. More trading activities will be happened only when the bitcoin valuation drops to about $2,000 and margin requirement to about $10,000.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2018, 07:31:06 AM »
You have valid points Arif as always ..... block-chain technology is extraordinary and revolutionary  bit coin is simply not the way to invest in it IMHO  ,  now on to Warren Buffet :)  he has doubled the S&P return since 1965 no one can claim that record:) and did it safely with only a negative return in a couple of years in that 50 year time span.Overall Gain 1.9million % vs S&P500 12,700% pretty impressive
   Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-2016 ............................ Warren 20.8%     S&P 500 9.7%
   Overall Gain – 1964-2016 ............................................... Warren 1,972,595%    S&P 500 12,717%
Lets talk about FANG stocks(full disclosure I own them all)
Lets pick one: the most famous of them all IMHO APPLE  that you mention
If you invested $1000 in the IPO of APPLE in 1980 your $1000 would be worth $394,000.00 if you reinvested Dividends and took in account stock splits.Pretty Darn good
NOW : Now lets take a look at washed up Warren:) 1980 you invest $1000 in Berkshire Hathaway you got $510,808.00 today:)
Why I admire Buffet? he is an opportunist extraordinaire: lets take 2008 financial crisis : people thought the banking world was going to end :) What does he do he tries to buy all of Bank of America for $5 a share:) .THE BEST PART : He takes this huge position with a loan to BOA @10% interest and a massive amount of Warrants that he can exercise or not exercise to buy stock At apx $6  the guy smells blood in the water as good or better than anyone :)  IS he the absolute best place to invest .....who knows?? but if you want relative safety and pretty darn good returns  it does not hurt to tuck a few bucks away with the old man:)






What is Buffet's opinion of precious metals?     I read he once owned a lot of silver bullion then sold it about 10 yrs ago?     Buffet was the first to label derivatives "weapons of financial destruction".      The West is full of derivatives (thanks to W. Bush) so Buffet knows where that leads to.      Why does he not promote bullion or PM?     What is his opinion?.....

Offline jc888888888

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2018, 07:49:41 AM »
Actually he does not like metals  ..this is an area we disagree:)   Buffet is real old school he is still walking around with a flip phone...he buys good businesses at a discount he understands and tries to hold it forever,  .....you can knock him for not understanding  Tech and staying away from it. that is understood... but once he gets it he is all in ...He currently owns more than 5% of Apple  .one could argue he got in late ??  on the flip side the biggest move in the shortest period of time in apple stock has taken place at his entry point at apx $100 a share, $170 now (look at the chart)...  one could also theorize part of that huge short term move  had something to do with him entering into the stock, a lot of people watch his moves very closely... What interest me most is he willing to add to that position at these $170 levels. 

Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2018, 04:39:56 PM »
Mark:

Cryptocurrency exchanges are not regulated, so the cash in the account is not insured. And there is no guarantee cash and/or coins in the account will not be misplaced, mishandled, or worse, the entire account gets suspended, for reason of possible criminal activity, such as money laundering, at the exchange’s discretion. If you trade bitcoin, you will also encounter long waits (hours) for a trade to get confirmed. This is because the bitcoin blackchain is not designed to handle such large amount of trades fast. And this is why there is a talk about increasing the block size, a thing which is already done in bitcoin cash, after the hardfolk.

There is a bitcoin investment trust traded at the otc market that you can check out. Its symbol is GBTC. This is a much safer way of investing in bitcoin, not counting the volatility factor.

Offline jc888888888

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2018, 05:59:54 PM »
Baron 88  is correct GBTC is safer but the premium (fee)  is huge anywhere from 20 to 100%  you are in many instances paying double the spot price    do your research ....

Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #15 on: January 17, 2018, 09:04:29 PM »
GBTC’s premium is determined by supply and demand. One can check out its discount/premium to NAV everyday. But most importantly is its price action. When bitcoin was traded around $3,000, GBTC was at $330. Today it closed at $1,636. And that is down from $3,523 just about a month ago. The point is, if you buy low, there is still nice profit to be made, regardless of the premium you paid. Crytocurrency has lost its initial purpose and intent, and become a big speculative game. I hope those who sold their mcc holdings and got into the game, made some good money and got out already. This is the most volatile price action I I've seen since the year 2000 dot com bubble.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #16 on: January 17, 2018, 11:09:39 PM »
I am not fan of GBTC anymore, it was fine when it was the only publicly traded security to own despite high premium to NAV, but now with more equities and ETFs coming out the premium will shrink and you could lose 30% during a flat bitcoin price market. 

The dot come bubble was scary as it was my first experience with bubble popping, but relatively it was like watching paint dry compared to bitcoins, take look at this chart comparing various bubbles.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-01-17/did-bitcoin-just-burst-how-it-compares-to-history-s-big-bubbles

Owning cyrotos is like owning paper money stored in a house filled with natural gas, any moment it could go up in smoke or if no spark occurs business as usual.  Today bitconnect exchange platform announced it was shutting down in a week, its tokens to finance its operation and to own a piece of the platform equity dropped by 90%, it probably will drop by 100% by the end of the week.  The owners sold tokens (equity) in the business say at $400 and now are running away with the proceeds and there is nothing investors can do about it.  This is why governments are getting involved.   
https://www.coindesk.com/bitconnect-investors-left-lurch-tokens-price-drops-90/amp/

Finally, today people are switching from cyrotos to physical gold, at least in europe.  The mcc sellers will probably not switch back until they lose everything based on the personalities involved.  They held mcc for far longer than they should and will certainly hold cyrotos way longer than they should. 
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-17/online-gold-sales-quintupled-as-bitcoin-plunged-coininvest-says 

Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #17 on: January 17, 2018, 11:52:06 PM »
As I know the SEC has rejected all bitcoin ETF applications to date. And I am curious as to why you said if gold breaks above $1,400 you will be on board?

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #18 on: January 18, 2018, 12:18:16 AM »
Two block chain ETF launched today. 
http://www.altcointoday.com/the-first-blockchain-etfs-have-launched-on-the-nasdaq-exchange/   

I am much more technical trader for gold, as fundamentals haven't worked for the last 6 years.  Despite all the craziness in the world gold has done nothing, but go down or trade sideways.  A break above $1400 would signal breakout of multi year pattern and a high likelihood of testing prior high.  Sold out of my entire bullion position in 2017 after a 10 year hold for many of the coins like strips of 1986-1988 gold panda proof sets.  If gold breaks I will buy mining shares and stay liquid until breakout is confirmed.

Offline jc888888888

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #19 on: January 18, 2018, 07:17:02 AM »
  Arif  I love your analogy sitting  in the house filled with natural gas LOL I might add with a chain smoker sitting in the living room LOL I am also watching the action on the ETF BLOK Interesting

Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #20 on: January 18, 2018, 10:06:43 AM »
To clarify, block chain ETFs are not cryptocurrency or bitcoin ETFs. They own block chain tech company stocks. I am watching them closely too. Am especially interested in which company stocks they buy. As for gold, last year I did buy a few 2017 Gold panda halfs, just in case they become rare coins based on the fact gold coins sales was one of the lowest ever.

Offline r3globe

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #21 on: January 18, 2018, 12:59:46 PM »
Two block chain ETF launched today. 
http://www.altcointoday.com/the-first-blockchain-etfs-have-launched-on-the-nasdaq-exchange/   

I am much more technical trader for gold, as fundamentals haven't worked for the last 6 years.  Despite all the craziness in the world gold has done nothing, but go down or trade sideways.  A break above $1400 would signal breakout of multi year pattern and a high likelihood of testing prior high.  Sold out of my entire bullion position in 2017 after a 10 year hold for many of the coins like strips of 1986-1988 gold panda proof sets.  If gold breaks I will buy mining shares and stay liquid until breakout is confirmed.

For me, I am very very humbled by the market. This forum is great because I can always come and read the analysis of people who are much smarter than I am.

To load up on Gold and Mining shares, I have been waiting for the retest of $875-$1000 level for 2-3 years  :cursing: I thought that the market needs this move to clear all optimism in the market. We could have bottomed, but the possibility of the retest of the $1000 gold level has been extended another 2-3 years. Yes, gold prices are going up, but silver seems to lag. In bull markets, silver usually leads aggressively, and we are not seeing that.

From Arif's experience, it appears to me that the Gold Panda market went through a Panic selling of sorts last year which could mean we finally bottomed ? Even if Gold prices have not bottomed or are destined to go sideways for another 2-3 years, MCC market has probably bottomed with gold pandas leading the way. Is there a "lag" and/or "divergence" between Gold/Silver prices and MCC market? I know for example that American Numismatics peaked much later than the 1980 Gold peak.

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #22 on: January 18, 2018, 04:34:08 PM »
I don't see the recent action in the MCC market as panic selling,  however, I am not a dealer so I don't have access to that level of information. I see the MCC market as moving in waves, each wave being triggered by a new catalyst, and each pull back a result of changing Chinese demand. I don't think MCC price has much of anything in common with the spot price of metals. Am I wrong?

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #23 on: January 18, 2018, 05:32:40 PM »
There was no panic selling, everyone was selling around market prices and prices didn’t move much.  Where there has been problems is bullion coins, those with numismatic premiums of 15% of less, they were very hard to move above melt.  Also low grade ms67 and lower have been tough to move, without master set demand there is almost no demand for them, while when master set demand comes back we will see ms67 trade almost like ms68 vs now they are trading at 20-50% premium discounts.

For years I was proven wrong about not keeping ms67-68 coins as investments, as they traded almost at same price as ms69, but now without master set demand, owning ms69 has provided strong liquidity, while the lower grades are much less liquid to almost illiquid for ms67 and below. Always invest in assets that can be sold during worst of times so you can cash out when needed.

Offline r3globe

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #24 on: January 18, 2018, 05:51:00 PM »
There was no panic selling, everyone was selling around market prices and prices didn’t move much.  Where there has been problems is bullion coins, those with numismatic premiums of 15% of less, they were very hard to move above melt.  Also low grade ms67 and lower have been tough to move, without master set demand there is almost no demand for them, while when master set demand comes back we will see ms67 trade almost like ms68 vs now they are trading at 20-50% premium discounts.

For years I was proven wrong about not keeping ms67-68 coins as investments, as they traded almost at same price as ms69, but now without master set demand, owning ms69 has provided strong liquidity, while the lower grades are much less liquid to almost illiquid for ms67 and below. Always invest in assets that can be sold during worst of times so you can cash out when needed.

I guess using "panic selling" was wrong. There seemed to be "loss of faith" in gold pandas as an investment by long term holders. I am not sure how widespread that is? Do you care to comment on where MCC prices are in terms of the cycle?

I don't see the recent action in the MCC market as panic selling,  however, I am not a dealer so I don't have access to that level of information. I see the MCC market as moving in waves, each wave being triggered by a new catalyst, and each pull back a result of changing Chinese demand. I don't think MCC price has much of anything in common with the spot price of metals. Am I wrong?

It seems you are describing "sector rotation". The money keeps chasing the overlooked until it is frothy then it looks somewhere else.

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #25 on: January 18, 2018, 06:39:21 PM »
Yes, sector rotation has definitely been happening, based on Master Set needs. And I don't think MCC holders are questioning long term investment potential as much as they were opting to test the waters in another speculative play (Cryptos) that could produce stronger retuens in the near term. They were correct because of the immaturity of the crypto market.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #26 on: January 23, 2018, 11:06:26 AM »
Good article about Warren philosophy, which I very much subscribe, just say no to everything so you can focus on a few things you know very well.  This is why I never branched out into many other countries as all world coin dealers do.  Northbay is the same way, US and China only, no need to expand just for the sake of expanding, even though many other countries are red hot while US and China are cold. 

https://www.inc.com/marcel-schwantes/warren-buffett-says-this-is-1-simple-habit-that-separates-successful-people-from-everyone-else.html 

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #27 on: January 24, 2018, 06:43:20 AM »
Two trends that are surprising and almost in stealth mode as main streams media is ignoring it.

1) US dollar making multi year lows, with yuan getting close to its Dec 2013 peak.

2) Gold quietly making progress week by week. A lot institutional money is flowing into gold indicates a bias towards inflation and/or hedge for instant turn from current prosperity.

Unfortunately none of these are helping mcc advance prices.  Has the general public soured after losing money in exchanges, missing out on stock market, real estate, or crypto surge, collectors are retiring and want more liquid assets, crack down on corruption is actually working in China and young generation have other interests than collecting coins.  All these cross currents will make 2018 a unique year that will be hard to forecast.

Offline jc888888888

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #28 on: January 24, 2018, 07:58:17 AM »
Agreed..... MCC has been dead money at the very least .....Even collectors like myself are not committing new money...If I didn't like my collection so much the smart move would be to sell it and redeploy the moneys..look at the stock market IMHO  , there is no crash coming no geo political news has moved it down,I dont think anything short of a nuclear warhead will. Daily... large corporations are spitting out pay raises ,bonuses and share buy backs due to this tax cut, earnings are rocketing skyward solely based upon it . Can the market correct ? It absolutely will ... it drops 5 to 20% and will race right back up there is monumental cash on the sidelines. Crypto? (pyramid scheme) you can get rich trading it for sure ....but that is a game for less than 1% of retail investors.The stock market is actually quite safe like the new CD if you have a 2 to 5 year time horizon and dont knee jerk sell during a short lived correction  the odds of any crash and it staying down are close to zero. There is only one thing IMHO to get MCC moving and that is a serious move up in the metals ...folks might start paying attention with a gold price north of 1450.One can hope..............My collection is for my kids so whatever it is it is is my attitude.

Offline mook

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #29 on: January 24, 2018, 08:27:16 AM »
JC88888.

The stock market started a terminal blow off, it will crash this year.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #30 on: January 24, 2018, 08:31:02 AM »
Gold has broke $1,350.     COT reports last 2 weeks have added a ton of shorts so price should have dropped.     Is this the real deal?    We will soon find out.        Many articles say China will make a big planned move after the Chinese New Years or about middle of Feb, next month.    The direction cannot change, it just takes continued patience on the part of those involved in this market....   
The Master Manipulators are discouraging gold/silver owners again.    They want to shake out the weak hands as usual.    Strong hands will win. .....

Offline mook

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #31 on: January 24, 2018, 08:41:49 AM »
1350 is the price of gold paper
The value of gold, nobody knows it today

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #32 on: January 24, 2018, 09:05:59 AM »
A stock market crash (a.k.a. correction) is in the offing either within the next few months or two years. This is the traditional pattern. Those who are experienced know what to do. The inexperienced, unfortunately, will compound their losses when that happens. Those who need some of their gains normally will take it now. Those who have a longer horizon will just continue to invest. If the market corrects in a substantial way strategic selling and reinvesting will realize some capital loss tax opportunities. Also that is when money on the sidelines swoops in to scoop up cheap bargains!

I still don’t understand gold and silver but they seem to be more liable to hyping and manipulation. Therefore, much care has to be exercised when investing in those metals. A long term perspective may be in order here. If you are collecting as a habit and plan to move it on to the next generation, keep on enjoying your hobby!
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
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Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #33 on: January 24, 2018, 09:22:44 AM »
1350 is the price of gold paper
The value of gold, nobody knows it today




Some know the true value of gold today, that is why they are buying/preparing.      China has the Petro Yuan and Gold backed Yuan in place now.     The East will eventually control gold price, not the West's 100 yr old London Gold Price Fix.      Lets see when the  East takes over gold pricing, some articles say after Chinese New Years..... 
We are casual observers for now.    The best we can do is be strong hands that do not get discouraged.....
I only own a few gold mining stocks so the stock market has little impact on me.....

 

Offline 1668Chris

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #34 on: January 24, 2018, 10:18:44 AM »
Two trends that are surprising and almost in stealth mode as main streams media is ignoring it.

1) US dollar making multi year lows, with yuan getting close to its Dec 2013 peak.

2) Gold quietly making progress week by week. A lot institutional money is flowing into gold indicates a bias towards inflation and/or hedge for instant turn from current prosperity.

Unfortunately none of these are helping mcc advance prices.  Has the general public soured after losing money in exchanges, missing out on stock market, real estate, or crypto surge, collectors are retiring and want more liquid assets, crack down on corruption is actually working in China and young generation have other interests than collecting coins.  All these cross currents will make 2018 a unique year that will be hard to forecast.

Weak dollar is driving gold prices higher and this trend line seems like it will continue for a while. 

Regarding MCC's, I think its a prudent strategy to diversify your holdings....in short, how much of your total assets do you want in the stock market.  401K's force you to put every dollar into equities, as there are no other choices.  As the market rises, asset allocation starts to get overweight equities.  It is smart investing to diversify your holdings and look for alternative investments...I think low MCC prices provide good value for the long term, much better than real estate (especially not in high tax states) or crypto. 

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #35 on: January 24, 2018, 10:56:16 AM »
The comparison with real estate is too broad. It depends on multiple factors, when, where, buying price, how long, poor real estate investment decisions etc.
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Offline 1668Chris

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #36 on: January 24, 2018, 11:03:19 AM »
The comparison with real estate is too broad. It depends on multiple factors, when, where, buying price, how long, poor real estate investment decisions etc.

it was just an analogy...everybody situation is different. 

Offline ccl

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #37 on: January 24, 2018, 12:13:45 PM »
I'm buying platinum bullion at these prices

Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #38 on: January 24, 2018, 08:16:31 PM »
I also like platinum, and am watching platinum mining company stocks closely. Platinum seems to be undervalued right now; price is even lower than palladium.

Offline 1668Chris

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #39 on: January 24, 2018, 08:40:49 PM »
I also like platinum, and am watching platinum mining company stocks closely. Platinum seems to be undervalued right now; price is even lower than palladium.

Major industrial uses for platinum are in catalytic converters in Diesel engines vs palladium in converters for gas engines.  Diesel demand has taken a major hit over past couple of years while traditional gas engine demand is up.  Not sure if this trend line will reverse.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #40 on: January 25, 2018, 07:44:09 AM »
Weak dollar is driving gold prices higher and this trend line seems like it will continue for a while. 

Regarding MCC's, I think its a prudent strategy to diversify your holdings....in short, how much of your total assets do you want in the stock market.  401K's force you to put every dollar into equities, as there are no other choices.  As the market rises, asset allocation starts to get overweight equities.  It is smart investing to diversify your holdings and look for alternative investments...I think low MCC prices provide good value for the long term, much better than real estate (especially not in high tax states) or crypto. 




I agree w/ MCC pick as China will soon flex their gold backed financial muscle.       This will surprise most of the world but not us.....

Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #41 on: January 25, 2018, 11:09:24 AM »
Major industrial uses for platinum are in catalytic converters in Diesel engines vs palladium in converters for gas engines.  Diesel demand has taken a major hit over past couple of years while traditional gas engine demand is up.  Not sure if this trend line will reverse.

Platinum and palladium are used as oxidation catalysts in catalytic converters for diesel and gas engines. They are interchanable. What matters is the price. Palladium used to be much cheaper and a prefered metal but now with its price higher than platinum, the trend may change.

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #42 on: January 25, 2018, 01:59:55 PM »



I agree w/ MCC pick as China will soon flex their gold backed financial muscle.       This will surprise most of the world but not us.....

I doubt that any major policy change in China on gold is imminent, or even close. Just the observation of an interested party.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #43 on: January 25, 2018, 04:09:42 PM »
Major industrial uses for platinum are in catalytic converters in Diesel engines vs palladium in converters for gas engines.  Diesel demand has taken a major hit over past couple of years while traditional gas engine demand is up.  Not sure if this trend line will reverse.

In less than 15 years, majority car and truck will be operated by battery and catalytic converter is not needed for electric car and truck.

Nevertheless, the valuation of coin is related to the rarity and has nothing to do with the metal content.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #44 on: January 25, 2018, 04:47:53 PM »
In general, gold price always moves up 2-3 months before Chinese lunar new year and down after Chinese new year. The lower US dollar (3 years low last week) does help the gold to move up recently. IMO, dollar has reached the bottom and gold will go down. I will not be surprised if gold price go down 10-15 % in the next three months, after Chinese new year.

Chinese Governoment may starts to collect real estate property tax sometimes this year. Apparently, the higher down payment for second home has not stop the speculation in the housing market. The property tax will defintely affect the investment strategis of most mid-income Chinese.



Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #45 on: January 25, 2018, 06:35:07 PM »
Let's not ignore the possibility of a US preventive strike against North Korea by March, after the February winter Olympics game.

Words have been circulating since December, that the US now sees North Korea as an immediate threat. This is the best article I found: https://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/us-attack-north-korea-march/2017/12/19/

If it happens, all markets could get affected, especially gold.


Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #46 on: January 25, 2018, 07:07:27 PM »
Let's not ignore the possibility of a US preventive strike against North Korea by March, after the February winter Olympics game.

Words have been circulating since December, that the US now sees North Korea as an immediate threat. This is the best article I found: https://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/us-attack-north-korea-march/2017/12/19/

If it happens, all markets could get affected, especially gold.



News can overwhelm any seasonal pattern. I won't be surprised it art does the year.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com


Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #47 on: January 25, 2018, 10:05:44 PM »
News can overwhelm any seasonal pattern. I won't be surprised it art does the year.


News can overwhelm any seasonal pattern. I won't be surprised if it does the year. (sorry for the typos)

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #48 on: January 25, 2018, 10:18:25 PM »
In general, gold price always moves up 2-3 months before Chinese lunar new year and down after Chinese new year. The lower US dollar (3 years low last week) does help the gold to move up recently. IMO, dollar has reached the bottom and gold will go down. I will not be surprised if gold price go down 10-15 % in the next three months, after Chinese new year.

Chinese Governoment may starts to collect real estate property tax sometimes this year. Apparently, the higher down payment for second home has not stop the speculation in the housing market. The property tax will defintely affect the investment strategis of most mid-income Chinese.


You gave a somewhat similar opinion when the valuation of the 2016 1gm gold panda coin went crazy. You were right; the hype died down and the dust settled!

If you turn out right again, then one must carefully note this as a fact that events in China alone may have an impact (?positive and/or negative) on world bullion prices. The kicker would then be how predictable this is as a guide to world or Chinese bullion purchase or speculating.

Thanks for the insight.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #49 on: January 26, 2018, 01:38:57 AM »
This rally in gold is all on paper, demand for physical bullion is the lowest I have ever seen.  If it wasn’t for the paper gold markets gold could be down in the $700-$800 range.  Just a year ago silver eagle always had a bid of $2.25 over melt, today you are lucky to get $0.50 for the common years, and for stray rolls that have been searched melt if you are lucky. Even gold bullion bids are at melt.  Same goes for recent Chinese panda, mainly due to exchange liquidation for silver and very little demand for gold. 

One factor that is hurting the coin market besides the cyrtos is the Chinese coin market is red hot, take a look https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/01/25/chinas-stock-market-is-on-a-once-in-a-lifetime-kind-of-rally.html. Money follows money, if you can make money without dealing with the postman and bid/ask commissions, why not. When we see a hick up (not fiancial crisis) in the stock market then we will see people flood back into coins. 


Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #50 on: January 26, 2018, 12:16:54 PM »
Using gold and silver demand in the US as the global barometer can be very misleading, as US demand is just a very small fraction of global demand.

For China alone, this is the article from Kitco in November of last year: http://www.kitco.com/news/2017-11-01/China-s-Gold-Bar-Demand-Up-More-Than-40-This-Year.html

Also in December from the other site: https://lawrieongold.com/2017/12/08/Chinese-2017-gold-demand-headed-for-more-than-2000-tonnes/

So I really doubt last year's gold panda sales is low in China.



Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #51 on: January 26, 2018, 04:04:43 PM »

So I really doubt last year's gold panda sales is low in China.


You would be wrong. The public in China isn't buying (much), somebody else must be. That is the word from dealers all over the country.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #52 on: January 26, 2018, 04:34:43 PM »
This rally in gold is all on paper, demand for physical bullion is the lowest I have ever seen.  If it wasn’t for the paper gold markets gold could be down in the $700-$800 range.  Just a year ago silver eagle always had a bid of $2.25 over melt, today you are lucky to get $0.50 for the common years, and for stray rolls that have been searched melt if you are lucky. Even gold bullion bids are at melt.  Same goes for recent Chinese panda, mainly due to exchange liquidation for silver and very little demand for gold. 

One factor that is hurting the coin market besides the cyrtos is the Chinese coin market is red hot, take a look https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/01/25/chinas-stock-market-is-on-a-once-in-a-lifetime-kind-of-rally.html. Money follows money, if you can make money without dealing with the postman and bid/ask commissions, why not. When we see a hick up (not fiancial crisis) in the stock market then we will see people flood back into coins. 



Arif, I quite agree with your second paragraph except I think there may be a typo. Do you mean, "Chinese stock market is red hot."?

Regarding the first paragraph, a prominent gold dealer – whom I respect and who has been in the business since the 1960s – made an interesting claim in a China Pricepedia interview. He said that physical demand for gold by the public is a lagging indicator, not a coincident or leading one. The early stages of a bull market generate skepticism and more selling from the public, not buying. So the first wave of buying does not come from the public and low premiums for coins are typical.

If his observations hold, then late 2016 and 2017 were the final bottom of this cycle. That so many people are still waiting for the price to drop again is consistent with his experience. I don't have a crystal ball, but think that may be useful information..

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #53 on: January 26, 2018, 05:13:13 PM »
Thanks for the information, Peter. What did the bullion dealers say about bar sales? If the Chinese public was not buying, then who was?  Buying quite a lot actually.

As for the pandas, does it mean they might become key-date coins?

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #54 on: January 26, 2018, 06:26:07 PM »
Thanks for the information, Peter. What did the bullion dealers say about bar sales? If the Chinese public was not buying, then who was?  Buying quite a lot actually.

As for the pandas, does it mean they might become key-date coins?

Everyone, without exception, tells me that business for gold and silver is bad, so I don't think that bar sales are an exception. Who is buying gold now in China? Nobody connected to coins as far as I can tell.

I started writing in China Pricepedia as early as last July that 2017 Pandas could turn out to be a key date. At that time it was possible, with careful shopping, to get NGC MS70 2017 Pandas for barely above melt value. 15 gram 2017 gold Pandas in 70 could be purchased in quantity on eBay for around $670. As much as 10% of that amount could be gotten back in eBay Bucks with a coupon making the net cost around $600 for a 70! I even included a link to a dealer who had dozens available.

The complete lack of interest in the coins was striking (pun intended). Key date stature is still possible and I am still doing research. Semi-key looks very likely, at least.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #55 on: January 26, 2018, 07:14:16 PM »
Yes I meant stock market is red hot.  Coin market is ice cold. 

As for 2016-2017 issues, nobody is melting them, instead bullion investors are buying them as a pure bullion play, so when their spread becomes 20%+ hoards can be released and kill any price movement.  They made too many of them to be special IMHO.  10 years from now we'll see who is right.  I think post 2011 is uninvestable from a numismatic perspective. 

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #56 on: January 26, 2018, 08:04:00 PM »
They made too many of them to be special IMHO.   

What is this based on?

10 years from now we'll see who is right.  I think post 2011 is uninvestable from a numismatic perspective. 

Yes, we will see.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #57 on: January 26, 2018, 09:44:01 PM »
Too many of the big US coin dealers selling 2017 in quantity very close to melt for most of 2017.  2017 may be better than 2015, but both I think are much more plentiful compared to anything from 1989-2010.   I got an investor to buy 100x 2017 1/2 at melt plus 5% from me based on your article in pricepedia, another investor I know probably bought 30-50 from another dealer at 4% over.  When I look at the type of buyers that eventually bought them, the hoard risk is too great.  We all saw what happens when 100 pieces of 1997 1/2 hit the market this last summer and fall or Stacks/Bowers dumping of lunar coins a few years back in multiple back to back auctions, the market isn't deep enough to absorb 100 pieces of any coin over short period of a few months.

I don't agree physical demand is a lagging indicator when prices are rising, when prices are falling, yes physical demand is a lagging indicator.  Right now we have some of the strongest paper momentum in the gold market, yet nobody wants physical gold, they all want paper gold.

With greater acceptance of digital assets happening all over the world, I think physical bullion will have a smaller role in the investment world, people will prefer to own paper gold in lieu of bullion.  Numismatic gold and silver will continue to be desirable, because they can't be replaced by electronic trading as the chinese exchanges found out.   All my purchase of bullion will be either GLD, mining stocks or via futures, I have no desire to buy physical bullion anymore even if it is discounted below melt.  Of course if world war III breaks out I will be sorry with the last paragraph, but I don't think I need to plan my future based on a war scenario in which no one will survive. 

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #58 on: January 26, 2018, 09:51:32 PM »
I am captivated by this thread. Let's keep it going guys!

Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #59 on: January 27, 2018, 12:46:47 AM »
Strong gold demand in China last year is a fact, especially gold bars, driven by investors buying as reported. Could it be bullion coins (pandas) are out of favor? This would be a scenario I really hate to see.

Here in the US, gold ownership has never been so popular. I can't name even one white firend of mine who's owned any gold. And banks are making it harder by telling customers not to store gold bullion in their safe deposit boxes. For investment purpose I do agree it is much easier to buy GLD or other gold investment trusts. For more leverage, buy gold, silver ETFs, and if risk factor is tolerable, buy individual mining shares.

Physical demand of gold is there, just not much in the US. Globally, central banks were buying too, lead by Russia. IMO 2017 gold pandas are good buys at bullion price, plus the potential to become semi-key dates 10 years from now, if one does not have any bullion as core holdings already. If world war III breaks out, and Paper money becomes worthless, at least I have a few gold coins to buy food, until the end. As least I don't die starving.

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #60 on: January 27, 2018, 04:29:35 AM »
2017 may be better than 2015, but both I think are much more plentiful compared to anything from 1989-2010.   

I disagree with my friend here.

I got an investor to buy 100x 2017 1/2 at melt plus 5% from me based on your article in pricepedia, another investor I know probably bought 30-50 from another dealer at 4% over.   

It is good to hear that that people found some merit in my writing.

When I look at the type of buyers that eventually bought them, the hoard risk is too great.  We all saw what happens when 100 pieces of 1997 1/2 hit the market this last summer and fall or Stacks/Bowers dumping of lunar coins a few years back in multiple back to back auctions, the market isn't deep enough to absorb 100 pieces of any coin over short period of a few months.


So the risk is that a coin could drop from 7x melt to 5 or 4X melt when a hoard was released? Compared to buying at 4-5% above melt, 400% sounds pretty sweet to me. In addition there was only one real buyer for the '97s.

I also would not predict how deep the market will be in a decade. In the meantime your buyer has made a solid profit (so far) on the gold 2017 15 gram Pandas. That the underlying metal was undervalued was part of the motivation for buying something that was abysmally unpopular at the time.


I don't agree physical demand is a lagging indicator when prices are rising, when prices are falling, yes physical demand is a lagging indicator.  Right now we have some of the strongest paper momentum in the gold market, yet nobody wants physical gold, they all want paper gold.   

Well that's the observation of a bright guy who has seen several more gold cycles than most people (and is much older than youthful Arif). Take it or leave it, I found it interesting enough to pass on.


With greater acceptance of digital assets happening all over the world, I think physical bullion will have a smaller role in the investment world, people will prefer to own paper gold in lieu of bullion.  Numismatic gold and silver will continue to be desirable, because they can't be replaced by electronic trading as the chinese exchanges found out.   All my purchase of bullion will be either GLD, mining stocks or via futures, I have no desire to buy physical bullion anymore even if it is discounted below melt.  Of course if world war III breaks out I will be sorry with the last paragraph, but I don't think I need to plan my future based on a war scenario in which no one will survive. 

OK, maybe it is different this time.

Thanks to Arif for the point-counterpoint. I hope everyone is having a good time and thinking about our views, too.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #61 on: January 27, 2018, 04:39:03 AM »
Strong gold demand in China last year is a fact, especially gold bars, driven by investors buying as reported. Could it be bullion coins (pandas) are out of favor? This would be a scenario I really hate to see.


It is not retail customers who are taking delivery of massive quantities of 100 oz. (or any other weight) gold bars in China, now. The jewelry industry is a possibility. It is ubiquitous, here.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline mook

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #62 on: January 27, 2018, 05:23:54 AM »
Interesting discussion

What I know:

All financial assets are in a historic bubble
Central banks are in the corner
We printed trillions of money
The dollar system is at the end
Bitcoin is a symptom of all this
Gold has done nothing and more people do not want it.

What I learned

We do not know the value of physical gold for centuries (gold standard, bretton woods, future market)
We buy when nobody wants (not everyone, see Russia))
After the rain, always good weather.

Livermoore said, that he always sat on his positions when the fundamentals was favorable, the fondamenatux for the physical gold have never been so favorable, I sit on my position and when I earn a little money I strengthen my position.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #63 on: January 27, 2018, 07:55:37 AM »
In time there will be a flood to gold/silver.     Be a strong hand and hold tight/add more.      Up down, then more up down until we go to liftoff.      Many articles say watch the end of Chinese New Years about Feb 14th?    It is possible China will ramp up the Petro Yuan and/or gold backed Yuan.    Lets see is anything plays out but i am still a solid believer in owning Chinese money and the best is gold/silver minted in China.......

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #64 on: January 27, 2018, 08:20:16 AM »
There has always been a steady trade in physical gold world over but most pronounced in Asia and associated regions. This takes the form of ornaments and coins, which act as a socially accepted store of wealth, and women are prominent participants here. It is however not publicized and the extent of accumulation is not fully appreciated at first glance. I believe it is substantial because I have seen it happen in the past. You can regard this as one of the gold buffers.

Government accumulation of gold is another substantial gold buffer. However, no one knows exactly what governments’ plans are!

Gold speculators don’t have any allegiance to the gold itself and are most likely sector rotators, here today gone tomorrow. Therefore, their influence on the trajectory of gold itself may not be permanent. It makes sense for them to invest digitally in gold because it allows them to be nimble.

I believe that there will always be a critical mass of people who accumulate physical gold either as collectors or family wealth builders. They tend to be silent but are most favored to capitalize on any downturn in gold prices because it allows them to accumulate more. I can’t foresee any future in which people do not accumulate physical gold (and Silver)!

IMO!
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Offline ccl

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #65 on: January 27, 2018, 12:23:33 PM »
I see Bitcoin and some other cryptocurrencies challenging existing perceptions regarding money. This could be the dawn of the money revolution. Peer-to-peer payments that can be made independent of an intermediary will shake things up as email did to the postal service. Government debt/economy/military backed currencies aren't going anywhere, nor are banks. That said future will have exponential growth in payments not going through  Banks/ VISA/ MASTERCARD/ PayPal.

In time, with the conversation ongoing about what money really is - I would expect more focus on the precious metals and for a symbiotic relationship at some point between two. Even now, many coin dealers like APMEX have positioned themselves to accept bitcoin payments.

Offline r3globe

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #66 on: January 27, 2018, 05:22:49 PM »
Wow very interesting, informative, and eye-opening discussion. Over the past 2-3 months, I have been chatting with multiple coin dealers and attending coin shows.Everything said here is very consistent with my discussions. You go to a show and everyone is desperate for cash (I do not take the word desperate lightly)!!! I have never been treated better because they think I have cash to spend. I avoid bullion like the plague and look for rare/numismatic coins with very motivated sellers. Dealers are paying 3%-5% less than melt for gold coins INCLUDING PROOF American eagles! In flea markets, dealers pay $100/per oz less than melt!

The negative sentiment is a requirement for the bottom to be made, but I am not sure if this negative "enough!" I learned that final bottoms are not made until things get so tough that a lot of bankruptcies and some suicide happens (very horrible) by a known dealer or a businessman!!! I do not know if there is such a thing happening in the coin precious metals business. Sorry for bringing up this morbid aspect.

Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #67 on: January 27, 2018, 07:04:44 PM »
In time, with the conversation ongoing about what money really is - I would expect more focus on the precious metals and for a symbiotic relationship at some point between two. Even now, many coin dealers like APMEX have positioned themselves to accept bitcoin payments.

Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #68 on: January 27, 2018, 07:13:20 PM »
I was wondering how APMEX and other dealers cope with the volatility of bitcoin. In December when bitcoin hit the $20,000 mark briefly many smart bitcoin owners got out by buying gold form these dealers. Price then quickly took a 50% drop. Unless dealers hedge their bitcoin position at the future exchange, they are Trapped big time right now.

Offline ccl

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #69 on: January 27, 2018, 07:18:54 PM »
they can hedge that way now or just liquidate the BTC within 30 min on an exchange manually or maybe via API

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #70 on: January 27, 2018, 07:21:12 PM »
I was wondering how APMEX and other dealers cope with the volatility of bitcoin. In December when bitcoin hit the $20,000 mark briefly many smart bitcoin owners got out by buying gold form these dealers. Price then quickly took a 50% drop. Unless dealers hedge their bitcoin position at the future exchange, they are Trapped big time right now.

If you need to hedge the value of the money, or medium of exchange, you accept as payment that would be a significant expense.  It's like getting hyperinflation or hyperdeflation in one day, maybe both?

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com


Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #72 on: January 28, 2018, 08:03:49 AM »
Goldseek by Steve Angelo   "The coming market crash will set off the biggest gold panic buying in history".         I still agree, gold and silver are the bottom line and the sheeple still do not get the picture......

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #73 on: January 28, 2018, 11:13:48 AM »
Most people on here do believe gold will go up.  I too think it will do well if it breaks the multi-year resistance between $1400-$1450.  Where I disagree is what form of gold will people buy, the old school thinking is physical gold (most of these people will be out of the market in the next 10-20 years), my thinking is more aligned with the 20-40 years old and it is paper gold (GLD, mining shares, futures) and these folks will be in the market for another 30-50 years.  With KYC/AML requirements becoming more strict, buying physical gold is and will become much less desirable.  With the younger generations accepting electronic assets as equivalent to physical assets, I think you will see a shift away from physical bullion purchases over the next 10-20 years. 

Anyone that bought bullion at a spread of 3%-5% over melt, today is selling at below melt, while if they bought the ETF the bid ask spread is a few cents, plus small annual expense ratio which is far less than cost of safe deposit box with private insurance.  For numismatic coins we don't have an ETF or futures contract to own, for those coins owning the physical is the only option and they should do well when collector and investor demand spikes.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #74 on: January 28, 2018, 11:47:28 AM »
Most people on here do believe gold will go up.  I too think it will do well if it breaks the multi-year resistance between $1400-$1450.  Where I disagree is what form of gold will people buy, the old school thinking is physical gold (most of these people will be out of the market in the next 10-20 years), my thinking is more aligned with the 20-40 years old and it is paper gold (GLD, mining shares, futures) and these folks will be in the market for another 30-50 years.  With KYC/AML requirements becoming more strict, buying physical gold is and will become much less desirable.  With the younger generations accepting electronic assets as equivalent to physical assets, I think you will see a shift away from physical bullion purchases over the next 10-20 years. 

Anyone that bought bullion at a spread of 3%-5% over melt, today is selling at below melt, while if they bought the ETF the bid ask spread is a few cents, plus small annual expense ratio which is far less than cost of safe deposit box with private insurance.  For numismatic coins we don't have an ETF or futures contract to own, for those coins owning the physical is the only option and they should do well when collector and investor demand spikes.

Paper gold investments are just like thousands of stocks out there. The decision to own them should not depend on whether one is a gold aficionado or not; it depends on conclusions reached after unbiased fundamental analysis of competing stocks. I know people invest in those gold stocks but a disproportionately higher number of people invest in other stocks that continue to do better than those gold delimited stocks. Yes, there could be a place for gold stocks in an investment portfolio but they need to duke it out with other stocks to establish that position. Again just IMO!
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Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #75 on: January 28, 2018, 01:12:06 PM »
Anyone that bought bullion at a spread of 3%-5% over melt, today is selling at below melt

IMO, Buying gold and silver bullion should be for long term hold. 3 to 5% over melt is nothing if price doubles over the long run. And chances are, as price moves up, dealers bid will increase. I was selling silver American eagles at $4 over melt to a dealer when silver price shot up to over $45 an ounce the last cycle up. Just need to decide what percentage you want to be in physical possesion as core holdings. Yes one does need to handle the safe storage issue. But the extra caveat is you have an asset hidden from the prying eyes of the information era.

Paper investment is for trading.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #76 on: January 28, 2018, 05:59:41 PM »

I started writing in China Pricepedia as early as last July that 2017 Pandas could turn out to be a key date. At that time it was possible, with careful shopping, to get NGC MS70 2017 Pandas for barely above melt value. 15 gram 2017 gold Pandas in 70 could be purchased in quantity on eBay for around $670. As much as 10% of that amount could be gotten back in eBay Bucks with a coupon making the net cost around $600 for a 70! I even included a link to a dealer who had dozens available.

The complete lack of interest in the coins was striking (pun intended). Key date stature is still possible and I am still doing research. Semi-key looks very likely, at least.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

I agree with arif about post-2012 pandas. They will not become semi-key date in the future.

Since 2014, the distribution of MCC has changed significantly. Majority of MCC were distributed via banks and CGCI own stores.

For example, for recently issued 35th anniversary of issuance of gold panda, 1,120 bimetal (AU/AG) were allocated to CGCI’s three stores, 480 for export and 3,600 for banks. The balance of the 6,000 mintage (1,080) were sold to licensed distributors (more than 200). Similarly, gold & silver set (mintage, 50,000), 7,000 were distributed via CGCI stores, 4,000 set for export and 30,000 were sold to banks. Only 9,000 sets were available for licensed distributors (dealers).

http://www.jibi.net/news/YGGCHMD/16583471.html

Most dealers inside China have no interest in selling post-2012 panda due to their low profit margin, especially their price are much higher than bank offered. General public still buy post-2014 panda as investment, but not buy from dealers.

IMO, the planned mintage will be the actual mintage.


Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #77 on: January 28, 2018, 06:31:52 PM »
Most people i talk to own paper gold and maybe some physical gold.      Very few see the relevance of rare coins no matter what country.     I have emailed many online authors about rare Chinese and most say buy cheapest gold bullion.     Also have talked to many employees like on ebay, paypal, frontier, etc.. and tell them about Chinese coins, so there are people that are interested and read both sites.     Chinese money will surprise a lot of citizens.      Lets see if there are Chinese financial firecrackers after Chinese New Years as some writers suggest.....

USA Watchdog  "Nuclear bomb memo is about to explode"  by Mark Taylor.     Read that on Steve Quayle site.   Drain the swamp means to expose the criminal elite in the US and world, then hold them accountable.      I have contacted the White House and Trump team (and most all national media, etc..) many times to bring attention to our Pacific NW legal criminal police.     Hopefully we are headed in that direction....

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #78 on: January 28, 2018, 06:52:20 PM »
I agree with arif about post-2012 pandas. They will not become semi-key date in the future.

Since 2014, the distribution of MCC has changed significantly. Majority of MCC were distributed via banks and CGCI own stores.

For example, for recently issued 35th anniversary of issuance of gold panda, 1,120 bimetal (AU/AG) were allocated to CGCI’s three stores, 480 for export and 3,600 for banks. The balance of the 6,000 mintage (1,080) were sold to licensed distributors (more than 200). Similarly, gold & silver set (mintage, 50,000), 7,000 were distributed via CGCI stores, 4,000 set for export and 30,000 were sold to banks. Only 9,000 sets were available for licensed distributors (dealers).

http://www.jibi.net/news/YGGCHMD/16583471.html

Most dealers inside China have no interest in selling post-2012 panda due to their low profit margin, especially their price are much higher than bank offered. General public still buy post-2014 panda as investment, but not buy from dealers.

IMO, the planned mintage will be the actual mintage.



I agree that dealers shun selling low profit coins in China. If you think that some coins will have no numismatic value in the future then don't buy them. In regards to other previous matters and views, to quote the Gershwins, "It ain't necessarily so."

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #79 on: January 28, 2018, 09:16:31 PM »
Well known author predicts $10k gold, better load up on bullion before it is too late.  If bullion really does go to $10k numismatic premiums would disappear on all post 2005 1/2 coins. 

https://www.thestreet.com/amp/story/14464897/1/gold-price-outlook-and-weak-dollar.html

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #80 on: January 29, 2018, 05:39:37 AM »
Well known author predicts $10k gold, better load up on bullion before it is too late.  If bullion really does go to $10k numismatic premiums would disappear on all post 2005 1/2 coins. 

https://www.thestreet.com/amp/story/14464897/1/gold-price-outlook-and-weak-dollar.html

Even making the big assumption that this happens, it seems sort of simplistic to predict the consequences down to what year of gold Panda would lose its premium. $10,000/oz. gold would certainly imply rejection of the USD, but would it also mean the rejection of the RMB? It might mean that wealth has fled to China and Chinese buying power has skyrocketed. That could mean more demand and bigger premiums for Chinese coins.

Personally, I find predictions like this too sensational and too vague to be useful. We don't live in a binary world. Your mileage may vary (a lot).

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #81 on: January 29, 2018, 08:00:42 AM »
I agree w/ your skepticism that Chinese buying power will skyrocket and more demand/premium for Chinese coins.....
The world must go to $10,000 gold or beyond.     The rich Chinese will pay a big premium for their National pride coins...
A strong USD will eventually be the past and a strong Yuan will be the future but i could be right!.....
It may sound like sensationalism or vague but for me those are the facts, we will soon find out this year....

Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #82 on: January 29, 2018, 09:15:54 AM »
Personally, I find predictions like this too sensational and too vague to be useful. We don't live in a binary world. Your mileage may vary (a lot).

Totally agree! $10,000 gold in 40 years? Some of us might not even live that long.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #83 on: January 29, 2018, 11:03:40 AM »
Isn’t all this hype? Something we eschew in this forum? For predictions are always inaccurate. And the most factual anyone can be is to present the two sides to the story?
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Offline ccl

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #84 on: January 29, 2018, 11:22:19 AM »
Not hype, speculation. If you want hype find some threads on Chinese medals here on CCF.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #85 on: January 29, 2018, 04:45:56 PM »
Thanks for clarification!  :lol:
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Offline r3globe

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #86 on: January 29, 2018, 04:48:14 PM »
I think Arif is being sarcastic about the $10000 prediction. With all due respect to all, USD is not going anywhere anytime soon. It will go much much higher before a “reset”. There is no viable alternative to it right now. China is not ready yet for prime time. Listening to the doom and gloom crowd back in 2009 led a lot of people nowhere. Listen to Peter Schiff (and his clones) and you will lose a lot of money guaranteed.

Offline r3globe

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #87 on: January 29, 2018, 04:49:24 PM »
 
Not hype, speculation. If you want hype find some threads on Chinese medals here on CCF.
N27  N16

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #88 on: January 29, 2018, 11:01:05 PM »
I have heard Jim R. talk live twice.  He is very bearish on USD and thinks gold is ultimate wealth preservation asset.  A $10,000 target in 40 years implies a 5% annual compounded growth rate.  Considering overall inflation is historically 3%, the real return from $1350 would be $3000 in 40 years, which is not that aggressive.  Health care inflation is about 5%, so his target will give you equal health care purchasing power, while education inflation is 7%, in which case your gold purchasing power 40 years from now at $10000 target for education would be only $600.

Just comparison, bond market 3%, stock market averages 8%, land appreciation in constrained cities averages 11% compounding return, sports teams 12%, real estate private equity 20%, so 5% appreciation in gold is nothing to get excited about.  However, in world war or electromagnetic war scenario gold might be the only one wants to own.

Offline Hippanda

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #89 on: January 29, 2018, 11:05:27 PM »
"Snake Oil" Jim Rickards has been singing this same exact tune for many years (see his prediction in 2011 yes 2011 !  of $7,000 gold in just a "few years")  and anyone following his calls for sky-high gold have lost their shorts during this time.  Actually speaking of shorts, I suspect (since he is presumably solvent) that he himself shorted gold at the time of this video August 22 2011 with gold at its high of $1,900 and laughed all the way to the bank while he told followers that $7,000 gold was imminent in "just a few years".  So now you believe him again? ( But he "presents YET ANOTHER clear and concise...")

Beware the gurus, people.
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #90 on: January 30, 2018, 07:43:44 AM »
J Rickards is not the only one predicting high gold.     Other authors say there is big money flowing into gold behind the scenes.    Why is China/Russia buying gold as their high priority?       For those that sit back and wait, when the boom happens it will be too late to buy cheap.     Just like bitcoin when it hit $19,000 the herd flooded in then it dropped by 1/2.      Better to be prepared and ahead of the game.     12 yrs ago when i told many to own bullion they thought i was a madman.    Today they tell me to buy bullion and forgot i was the one that warned them.     The majority of people even in backward rural OR are buying or own bullion.     Some are buying Chinese.      The writing is clearly on the wall but we have never seen a unmanipulated bullion price. Before he ran for office, Mr Trump said the US sold our gold as have many, many others.     He who owns the gold will make the rules and today that is China/Russia.    It will happen in our lifetime.       People on this forum are prepared but the sheeple are not.     IF you do not believe that we will soon see a bullion boom then it is wise for you to sell ALL of your bullion/Chinese and reinvest in paper instruments.   Does that make sense?   Not to me.........   

Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #91 on: January 30, 2018, 09:52:44 AM »
"Snake Oil" Jim Richard’s has been singing this same exact tune for many years (see his prediction in 2011 yes 2011 !  of $7,000 gold in just a "few years")  and anyone following his calls for sky-high gold have lost their shorts during this time.  Actually speaking of shorts, I suspect (since he is presumably solvent) that he himself shorted gold at the time of this video August 22 2011 with gold at its high of $1,900 and laughed all the way to the bank while he told followers that $7,000 gold was imminent in "just a few years".  So now you believe him again? ( But he "presents YET ANOTHER clear and concise...")

Beware the gurus, people.

Wisely said! It is always dangerous to take gurus seriously and make investment decisions based on their predictions.

Realistically, why not take it one step at a time? Gold's bear market since 2011 might have already ended and has been trying to break out. It has to clear the $1,400 strong Resistance area first. If successful, will confirm in deed a new bull phase is in progress. How high will it go and over how long of a timespan, nobody really knows, unless you are God. Some people may have already been buying, some may want to wait till the bull phase is confirmed. Do your own due diligence with independent thinking is most important thing in investing.

Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #92 on: January 30, 2018, 10:42:57 AM »
By the way, the widely popular Bitcoin investment trust just got a 91 to 1 price split. It’s price is now $18.

And this is a post on reddit. This dude started with 3 bitcoins he won at a poker game, traded all the way up to 200 bitcoins (4 million dollars), and then traded down to 0. All happened in less than a year.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/7s8umm/how_i_lost_nearly_200_btc_trading_this_past_month/

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #93 on: January 30, 2018, 05:01:16 PM »
There are 1000's of stories like this in Macau or Las Vegas every day, people losing their life savings or going on a crazy win streak only to lose it all.  It always surprises me when people write or talk about this type of financial swing as being unique, it is all too common from all walks of life, even 95 billionaire princes in Saudi Arabia are in jail right now, because they don't want to give up 50% of their wealth to the ruler as a tax amnesty. 

Offline ccl

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #94 on: January 30, 2018, 05:12:16 PM »
it's interesting to others, that's why. Also never a bad idea to hear other's mistakes, there can be nuggets of truth in there to learn from.

Offline r3globe

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #95 on: January 30, 2018, 05:37:23 PM »
There are 1000's of stories like this in Macau or Las Vegas every day, people losing their life savings or going on a crazy win streak only to lose it all.  It always surprises me when people write or talk about this type of financial swing as being unique, it is all too common from all walks of life, even 95 billionaire princes in Saudi Arabia are in jail right now, because they don't want to give up 50% of their wealth to the ruler as a tax amnesty. 

I know this is unrelated, but this "ruler" promised in a private meeting that he will become the first Trillionaire in the world  N16  :w00t: What is a few billions amongst friends and family  N66

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #96 on: January 30, 2018, 10:04:20 PM »
Getting back to coins.  I was offered a fresh sheet of 1987 1oz gold pandas today.  I offered 96% of melt, winning bid was 98% of melt.  Poor dealer couldn't get a single buyer to pay full melt.  He paid the customer 95% of melt.  It is shocking to see panda bullion so cheap.  I think if gold was at $1150 I would have paid full melt, but with it close to major resistance and long beach a few week away didn't want to get involved with such low margin transaction.  I think a lot of the dealers are thinking the same way right now.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #97 on: January 30, 2018, 11:43:24 PM »
The knock on effect on this dealer is now he will pay future customers not 95% of melt, but maybe 90-92% of melt, it is vicious cycle until it turns.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #98 on: January 31, 2018, 08:20:06 AM »
It is a vicious cycle for the weak hands to sell out...    It cannot be manipulated forever...

jsmineset     Zero Hedge "These are 6 traders who were arrested for manipulating gold market"....
Many articles say the 100+ yr old London Gold Price Fix is coming to a end and that means the East will take over gold price...

Kitco     " Gold and silver are going to explode"  by Bill Murphy..
Many articles say big money continues to move into gold....


Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #99 on: January 31, 2018, 03:12:53 PM »
If the seller was the original owner of the sheet of coins he could still have made a lot of profit given what he paid for it years ago when spot was 3-5 times less than the current value.
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Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #100 on: February 01, 2018, 12:08:04 PM »
jsminest    see graph of rising Yuan.    These graphs will soon be common on most sites....

jsminest   Listen to   "Bill Holter - DC so dirty they tried a coup attempt"   he also talks about gold, yuan, etc...

Goldseek   See  "The most gold you've ever seen"     Russia is showing off their gold.    China will show off their gold soon too, then they will encourage the US to display the gold but many, including Trump, says the US sold the gold long ago....

Chinese New Years is this month.    Sometime when it is over expect the Chinese to begin the Petro Yuan to replace Petro Dollar.    The gold backed Yuan will also begin.       Gold price will soon be controlled by the East not the West.    Hopefully this will be a slow process......       Maybe Trump's new economy can hold off the East for a while......   


Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #101 on: February 01, 2018, 12:39:02 PM »
You say these things like they are facts, like they're going to happen soon. Holter, Sinclair, Willie, Morgan, Schiff, etc have all been wrong for years now with their predictions, yet you parrot their words as if the predictions are going to happen next month. Do you *really* think these changes are imminent? Why would China want to show off their gold? What good would it accomplish? And a rising Yuan graph on most financial sites? You, sir, must be living in a different world that I am.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #102 on: February 01, 2018, 09:30:48 PM »

The Yuan is making a strong move against the USD.  This move is the only reason mcc haven't dropped that much despite very low demand.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CNY&view=1Y

Here are three experts on gold market, they think gold will move up a little in 2018.  Rick Rule is probably partially responsible for me to be in mcc, I used to have an account with his firm back in 2005-2007 during the greatest uranium bull market, the profits from that run all went into mcc. 
http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/VRIC-2018/1837/2018-02-01/Is-Gold-About-To-Break-Out-And-Destroy-Everything-Three-Giants-Of-The-Industry-Talk-The-Outlook-For-2018-Part-1

Offline silverpv

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #103 on: February 01, 2018, 11:02:31 PM »
Very interesting topic. I've been away for a bit from the stacking and can confirm a lot of the assumptions. I'm not sure how many of you invest in cryptos but I did sell a lot of bullion last year to fund crypto purchases. I'm also one that used credit cards to buy cryptos but I did the same thing since i started with gold and silver on ebay so I don't think that is really too big a deal, but can also say many people have over extended a bit due to the rise. What I see now in the most recent drop reminds me of charts I used to see in 2011-2012 for metals. With a lot of hype and a subsequent fall.

To me the two follow are likely to follow the same path for the same reasons. Crypto Hodlers are no different than bullion Stackers both fear the dollar and gov't collapse with crypto people just using computers vs physical. It's a different solution to the same problem IMO. I see similar trends in both metal and crypto and the tide changes with sentiment. As Key1/2 mentioned money follows money so it's not surprising a lot of people sold their collections to fund crypto purchases. I still have my collection and had a look at the NGC rankings, looks like i'm going to be stuck out of placing top 3 for awhile. ;)   

I was interested in this thread because I don't see physical demand very high. If anything physical is very low in my area, the spread to buy and sell is quite large with -$20 for AGE's which used to be +$20 over spot. So that definitely tells me physical demand is weak. I've been eyeing physical but it is very difficult to sell. I've actually just sold off a lot of physical silver bullion because the price is up and it takes time to move it over spot. I did buy some physical, but also have buy and hold gold etf's since its much easier to liquidate at the price listed, there's less variance. Physical is much more difficult to sell these days and get the price you want.

Crypto's are in a bit of a weird area right now, but the sentiment is the same. Once the Chinese come back from CNY, there's supposed to be a pop in cryptos. There is the belief that cryptos will behave like gold 2.0, since people can transact with it and acts as neutral currency that can be traded into any local currency, sometimes at premiums as high as 20%. This makes it an exceptional medium for exchange rate since you can get even more for your money. I'd definitely like to see a comeback to physical, but also with the world having several different types of natural disasters, physical doesn't make as much sense as it used to. Fires, flood, earthquakes, winter storms etc all make mobility very limited but having some is ok, these days though I like having digital because i know i can go anywhere with it without a lot of questions. KYC/AML is getting more and more strict all around the world for cash, gold/silver, and crypto. Banks and CC providers are cutting access by introducing higher fees or blocking tx's and Gov'ts are looking for trading records from exchanges. Gold/Silver, i need to provide and id to make sure the physical isn't stolen. So these days some of everything seems like the best hedge since everything seems like they are on edge, cash going down, stock market at ATH, crypto bubbles, real estate bubbles, QE by several countries, no single asset seems safe for me hide in. All I think i can do is try to have contingency plans for each scenario.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #104 on: February 01, 2018, 11:29:53 PM »
A lot of great points silverpv. 

I didn't even consider the natural disasters risk with owning physical.  Silver is definitely a never own physical metal for me, too bulky to store or ship. 

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #105 on: February 02, 2018, 08:02:53 AM »
You say these things like they are facts, like they're going to happen soon. Holter, Sinclair, Willie, Morgan, Schiff, etc have all been wrong for years now with their predictions, yet you parrot their words as if the predictions are going to happen next month. Do you *really* think these changes are imminent? Why would China want to show off their gold? What good would it accomplish? And a rising Yuan graph on most financial sites? You, sir, must be living in a different world that I am.




Yes i live in a different world then you.    I believe what i post.     Like my past posts, when i told people to own physical gold/silver over 12 yrs ago the crowd had your opinion.     They saw no relevance in bullion.      Today most everyone can see the writing on the wall and physical gold/silver is owned by the crowd.    It is good to be ahead of the game.      All the authors have been wrong w/ timing but not w/ their facts.       I do not understand cryptos so i will not invest or recommend them to anyone.     The world is looking for alternatives to the USD so cryptos will probably do OK.      The present/past rules at some point will change.      This rule will not change, he that owns the gold makes the rules.     Today that is China/Russia.      Remember China's gold army?       The manipulation that keeps happening today will soon come to a end.      It is very wise to own bullion and Chinese.   Give it time to unfold, then there will be no disagreements.....

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #106 on: February 03, 2018, 06:38:53 PM »
I believe pure bullion (brand depends on your geography) is the best form of physical gold to own if you plan on selling fast especially if you have lots of coins to move.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #107 on: February 03, 2018, 11:06:45 PM »
For certain countries, like Singapore only .9999 gold is duty free to bring into the country, so american eagles (0.9167) are a bad choice to own if you plan to take your gold on the road. 

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #108 on: February 05, 2018, 07:49:05 PM »
A stock market crash (a.k.a. correction) is in the offing either within the next few months or two years. This is the traditional pattern. Those who are experienced know what to do. The inexperienced, unfortunately, will compound their losses when that happens. Those who need some of their gains normally will take it now. Those who have a longer horizon will just continue to invest. If the market corrects in a substantial way strategic selling and reinvesting will realize some capital loss tax opportunities. Also that is when money on the sidelines swoops in to scoop up cheap bargains!

I still don’t understand gold and silver but they seem to be more liable to hyping and manipulation. Therefore, much care has to be exercised when investing in those metals. A long term perspective may be in order here. If you are collecting as a habit and plan to move it on to the next generation, keep on enjoying your hobby!

February 2018
US Stock Market "correction" Day#2
Not yet a crash
But what do I know?
I am just a Panda coin collector!  N16  N17  :lol:
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline silverpv

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #109 on: February 05, 2018, 08:06:01 PM »
Yeah.. no where is safe right now.. Every where is a ticking time bomb.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #110 on: February 05, 2018, 10:26:45 PM »
USD is always a safe haven, we are lucky in that respect.

Offline wg

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #111 on: February 06, 2018, 05:04:12 AM »
USD is always a safe haven, we are lucky in that respect.

jim rickards

https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2018/01/26/politicians-lying-about-us-dollar-001391

Quote
....By the way, Russia and China have both tripled their gold reserves in the last 10 years. If you use 2006, slightly over 10 years. If you use 2006 as a base line, Russia has gone from 600 tons to almost 2,000 tons. China, same thing, from 600 tons to almost 2,000 tons. Although, China no doubt has more ... the 2,000-ton figure is the official number, but they actually have a lot more than that that they keep off the books. The country is officially buying it, but the people are buying it also. I see a lot of interest in Australia and we just spent 10 days in Australia very recently and I see the same interest in Europe. The people who don't get it are Americans. I don't know why. Maybe it's because we have the dollar and the dollar's the major global reserve currency. Maybe Americans don't get out enough.

There's a surprising statistic, only 16% of Americans even have passports, 16%. That's the percentage who even have passports. Of those, most of them no doubt use them to go to the Caribbean, or Canada, or Mexico, or Bermuda. Maybe they take a trip to London or Paris once a year, Italy or something on a vacation. The number of Americans who have actually been to China or for that matter, Japan, Australia, or Africa, or anywhere else, is very, very few. Look, I don't blame people if they haven't been around, but you should understand that it's a big world out there and there's an enormous demand for gold, but I don't see it in America. I think Americans will be the last to catch on....


Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #112 on: February 06, 2018, 07:21:29 AM »
I think the safe haven is changing from USD to gold/silver minted in China.     Give it time to unfold....

The opinions i like from Rickards is when he travels to the 3 refineries in Swiss? that accept, refine and supply the world w/ gold.
His past articles says gold supply for these refineries is getting very low and 1 may refinery may close...   

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #113 on: February 06, 2018, 01:10:17 PM »
Gold demand trends of 2017, published by World Gold Council today.

https://www.gold.org/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2017

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #114 on: February 06, 2018, 10:37:10 PM »
Two takeaways:

1) Total investment demand took a big hit of 23% in 2017 with US ETF down 63% in demand, while China up 8%.  Gold is moving form the West to the East as pandemonium as been saying for years, maybe 2017 is the inflection point year where US investors throw in the towel forever on gold (it certainly seems that way on the front lines of the coin market). 
https://www.gold.org/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2017/investment

2) Russia central bank is on tear to buy up gold, check out the chart, would love to see similar chart for China.
https://www.gold.org/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2017/central-banks




Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #115 on: February 09, 2018, 12:44:39 AM »
Chart of the day, PCGS stock price.  35% drop after reporting bad earnings.  Buying opportunity or first nail in the coffin?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CLCT?p=CLCT

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #116 on: February 09, 2018, 12:50:03 AM »
Chart of the day, PCGS stock price.  35% drop after reporting bad earnings.  Buying opportunity or first nail in the coffin?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CLCT?p=CLCT

If the dividend is not on the chopping block it yields 7.8% now.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #117 on: February 09, 2018, 01:04:08 AM »
The drop is mainly due to cut in the dividend by 50%, forward dividend rate is roughly 4%.

The Board of Directors approved a dividend of $0.175 per share for the third quarter of fiscal 2018.  This represented a reduction from the quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share that we have previously paid to our stockholders.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/collectors-universe-reports-operating-results-210300173.html

Also David Hall has been an aggressive seller of shares in the last 12 months.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CLCT/insider-transactions?p=CLCT

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #118 on: February 09, 2018, 01:12:23 AM »
The drop is mainly due to cut in the dividend by 50%, forward dividend rate is roughly 4%.

The Board of Directors approved a dividend of $0.175 per share for the third quarter of fiscal 2018.  This represented a reduction from the quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share that we have previously paid to our stockholders.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/collectors-universe-reports-operating-results-210300173.html

Also David Hall has been an aggressive seller of shares in the last 12 months.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CLCT/insider-transactions?p=CLCT

Statement: I have no, none, zero inside knowledge of David Hall's actions, or anything else going on at PCGS, for that matter. I didn't even know he is a seller. That said, I can think of less obvious reasons that could explain the selling, but it is pure speculation on my part. I just wouldn't jump to any conclusions.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #119 on: February 09, 2018, 01:37:43 AM »
All knowing KeyDatePanda1/2s, please predict where the DOW Jones is headed next. I want to know if you truly are profetic, or just another Harry Dent :)

Offline ccl

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #120 on: February 09, 2018, 01:48:52 AM »
Statement: I have no, none, zero inside knowledge of David Hall's actions, or anything else going on at PCGS, for that matter. I didn't even know he is a seller. That said, I can think of less obvious reasons that could explain the selling, but it is pure speculation on my part. I just wouldn't jump to any conclusions.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Why is a statement necessary, do you work for PCGS these days?

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #121 on: February 09, 2018, 01:59:03 AM »
Why is a statement necessary, do you work for PCGS these days?

I was expressing a personal opinion, that is all. Problem?

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com


Offline ccl

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #122 on: February 09, 2018, 02:08:26 AM »
:-) no

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #123 on: February 09, 2018, 08:22:35 AM »
Why would D Hall be a big seller of PCGS stock?       
NGC grades over 2 million coins a year.     Could the bulk of rare world coins be graded?
Lots of new grading companies in China.     Could technology be taking over human inspection of coins?
Just my guesstimate.....

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #124 on: February 09, 2018, 11:40:24 PM »
All knowing KeyDatePanda1/2s, please predict where the DOW Jones is headed next. I want to know if you truly are profetic, or just another Harry Dent :)

I don't have any interest in following the dow, I prefer to bet on technologies of the future, cash flow assets or collectibles. 

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #125 on: February 10, 2018, 12:00:06 AM »

Why would D Hall be a big seller of PCGS stock?       
NGC grades over 2 million coins a year.     Could the bulk of rare world coins be graded?
Lots of new grading companies in China.     Could technology be taking over human inspection of coins?
Just my guesstimate.....

Peter thinks personal reasons.  I believe that when you sell 1/3 of your holdings (600K shares at start of year to 400K now) over a course of a year in a company you have been part of for 30 years it is a strategic decision. 

He has every right to sell and if I were him I would sold 100% of my shares once they broke low 20s.  What is interesting is the flawless timing of it, just as many of us dealers were turning against bullion type coins the sale transactions started occurring.  One advantage of being a dealer vs collector or investor is as a dealer we saw all this IRA bullion and collector/investor start to come to market in a big way as Trump pro business agenda was unfolding and stock market continued to climb with little volatility and crytos caught the attention of many.  This was a clear message that bullion will be in trouble later in the year, which means grading companies would struggle as their primary revenue is grading new bullion issues.  The worst part was you couldn't short CLCT, because it had high dividend and that carrying cost made the short very expense to hold.

PCGS dominance is in vintage coins, there are very few of these floating around that need certification, their big push has already happened and from a grading perspective this will be a declining revenue forever.  China grading companies I don't know if that matters, but what does matter is mint and/or dealers prefer to sell in fancy boxes rather than slabs all the newer issues.  There are dealers that are looking into computer graded coins, I don't know how close we are to a true AI algo to do this, but it would certainly be a good investment to make. 


Offline Pandaguy

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #126 on: February 10, 2018, 12:24:15 AM »
Peter thinks personal reasons.  I believe that when you sell 1/3 of your holdings (600K shares at start of year to 400K now) over a course of a year in a company you have been part of for 30 years it is a strategic decision. 

He has every right to sell and if I were him I would sold 100% of my shares once they broke low 20s.  What is interesting is the flawless timing of it, just as many of us dealers were turning against bullion type coins the sale transactions started occurring.  One advantage of being a dealer vs collector or investor is as a dealer we saw all this IRA bullion and collector/investor start to come to market in a big way as Trump pro business agenda was unfolding and stock market continued to climb with little volatility and crytos caught the attention of many.  This was a clear message that bullion will be in trouble later in the year, which means grading companies would struggle as their primary revenue is grading new bullion issues.  The worst part was you couldn't short CLCT, because it had high dividend and that carrying cost made the short very expense to hold.

PCGS dominance is in vintage coins, there are very few of these floating around that need certification, their big push has already happened and from a grading perspective this will be a declining revenue forever.  China grading companies I don't know if that matters, but what does matter is mint and/or dealers prefer to sell in fancy boxes rather than slabs all the newer issues.  There are dealers that are looking into computer graded coins, I don't know how close we are to a true AI algo to do this, but it would certainly be a good investment to make. 



I also think it was for personal reasons and not business reasons. His timing WAS flawed! If he knew something, he would have waited to sell only one month later, and he would have gotten substantially more ($30+ per share). Sure, the recent dump in the share price is mostly due to the dividend cut, but also to the recent dump in the Dow coupled with the fact that this equity is very thinly traded (low share transaction volume).

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #127 on: February 10, 2018, 06:21:47 AM »
It doesn’t work that way with timing for major inside owners.  You have to set up a trading plan months in advance that sells during certain unrestricted periods, so you can’t be acused of insider trading.  I have spent a lot of time studying insider trading plans to help make decisions which sectors to invest in. 

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #128 on: February 10, 2018, 12:11:05 PM »
It doesn’t work that way with timing for major inside owners.  You have to set up a trading plan months in advance that sells during certain unrestricted periods, so you can’t be acused of insider trading.  I have spent a lot of time studying insider trading plans to help make decisions which sectors to invest in. 

It kind of funny; same facts, different conclusion – or at least I see two equal possibilities.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #129 on: February 11, 2018, 07:12:29 PM »
Read this on Steve Quayle.    Hal Turner radio show.    "World news  something very serious is happening w/ banks - they have almost stopped lending to each other."......

Now Goldenlord tells us Germany is low on Chinese.    Members here tell us the US has low inventory.    How about Japan? 
   Other Asian countries (besides China) sold out years ago.    Guess they all found their way back to China........

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #130 on: February 11, 2018, 09:06:27 PM »
Guess they all found their way back to China........

One difference that this makes is that the coins cannot be legally melted in China, unless the government does it. Twenty years ago, in a very slow market and with precious metal prices wobbly, Western store owners converted Chinese coins into bars that could be sold on commodity exchanges. Because so many coins are legally protected today the supply is less fluid, more or less frozen in place waiting for a thaw.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com



Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #131 on: February 11, 2018, 11:25:39 PM »
That is a great point about coins can't being melted in China, never consider that.  I wonder if medals can legally be melted by mainland dealers. 

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #132 on: February 11, 2018, 11:52:25 PM »
I wonder if medals can legally be melted by mainland dealers. 

As far as I know, yes.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #133 on: February 13, 2018, 05:10:26 PM »
Chart of the day, PCGS stock price.  35% drop after reporting bad earnings.  Buying opportunity or first nail in the coffin?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CLCT?p=CLCT

If PCGS goes down/away, all its products become collector items...no, oops! collector items within collector items  N17 N17 :001_tt2:

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #134 on: February 13, 2018, 11:42:01 PM »
I would be happy to sell you some ANCS holder MS70 at a premium to NGC MS70, so you can play out your theory.  What actually will happen if PCGS disappears, is NGC will offer cross over service and worst case crack and reholder to a lower grade, which is what I currently do for ANCS and PCGS holder coins in anticipation of a day where only NGC exist.