Author Topic: Registry winner include panda coin collectors  (Read 9125 times)

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Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« on: January 14, 2018, 08:13:34 AM »
Congratulation to Russ736 for putting together amazing collection of coins besides the top 1/4 gold panda set.

Another collector was also recognized for his silver kilo set. 

https://www.ngccoin.com/news/article/6361/

Having had a month to reflect on the state of the market without being much involved in the transaction side I have noticed a few trends and counter trends.

1) Investors selling collections to go all in on cyrtos.  Tired of flat returns for years and dwindling opportunities to buy (very little offered) or sell (harder to ship to China).

2) Gold is making strong run during the last month, many believe with stock market set to top, gold bullion run will take it to new highs in 2018, if it breaks $1400 I will be on board.

3) Yuan is getting stronger as capital controls make it harder to export currency except for one road, one belt projects.  This trend is particularly bullish and is the main reason I got involved with mcc back in 2007.

4) The combination of 1-3, is getting me very interested in being a net buyer of mcc vs being a huge net seller since June of 2017.  Only concern is who to buy from, all weak hands have sold alongside me last year, now only strong hands, few strong dealers and very few closet collections exist in the US.

5) The final wild card is master set demand for 2018, how many sets will be ordered and what will happen if gold breaks $1400.  Looking forward to Long Beach show as it will be good indicator of the market to come, if strong mainland presence at show it will bode well for the year and may create some spectacular returns for sleeper coins.

Interesting auction, they minted 3,500 of these physical brass coins in 2011, one just auctioned for double its bitcoin value.  They sold for about $50 dollars back in 2011, with 1 bitcoin included.
https://m.ebay.com/itm/FULLY-FUNDED-2011-Casascius-1-BTC-Series-2-Physical-Bitcoin-ANACS-grade-MS-65-/322986321601

They even made 1oz gold coin loaded with 1000 BTC.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Casascius_physical_bitcoins

Happy New Year.

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2018, 09:47:07 AM »
Thanks for another great analysis.


1) Investors selling collections to go all in on cyrtos.  Tired of flat returns for years and dwindling opportunities to buy (very little offered) or sell (harder to ship to China).


No doubt you've read that many people are buying bitcoin with credit card:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-11/new-survey-reveals-staggering-number-people-are-buying-bitcoin-their-credit-cards
I remembered your comment that when people start to 'invest' with credit card debt, that's when price topped.  I'm interest to see how this all turn out--in tears most likely.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2018, 11:03:09 AM »
You are correct market tops happen when late comers buy with credit cards.  Looking forward to that day again in mcc, as it will signal time to get out. 

For cryptos credit cards are unfortunately one of the easiest way to buy, because many banks refuse to send or receive wires from exchanges.  It take me 7 days for Wells Fargo to process my ACH to US based exchanges.  Even wires can take 3 days to clear.  95% of the cyrtos are owned by 4% of the participants and these participants are up huge, the remaining 96% of the owners are likely to take big losses when the market turns, so bottom line is if you don’t already have millions in profits, you are at risk to lose a lot if you get too greedy and hold for long term.  Right hundreds of thousands of new customers are being added, so many more will join the party before the music will stop.  Goldman is calling bitcoin the new gold, this will bring a lot of new customers.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2018, 08:04:08 AM »
Hard to believe people are mortgaging their homes and selling their gold/silver or MCC to buy bitcoins.      Most people i talk to want nothing to do w/ Chinese money even when they know China is the world's #1 economy and they own the gold.     The West is brain dead (maybe due to fake news?).      The collector friends of mine are happy because they can see the light and they love Chinese coins/medals now.  Their only complaint is lack of cash to buy.    The collector friends of mine that have $hundreds of thousands or millions in mining stock, cash, etc... are very, very small buyers....

4)  Is the US that low on MCC inventory?     

People really pay that much for physical bitcoins?     One born every minute....

From my low viewpoint it looks like what the posts say here, Vintage and circ coins are moving up while MCC is flat.     Makes sense the Chinese or other buyers would want a first date 1890 silver dragon or 1955 circ coin   vs   1979 MCC.      MCC will take off in time too.     The market could be ready to bust open but the Manipulators may have another knockdown or 2 in bullion price soon also.   Time will tell.......

Offline jc888888888

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2018, 05:17:25 PM »
  :)    Warren Buffet says he would buy 5 year puts on every Crypto currency out there :) with a very high degree of confidence .

  I have owned Berkshire Hathaway shares for close to 20 years and never have sold a dime,s worth ..it has treated me darn good....I will stick with Warren. Cyrpto will end badly....  every time it goes up the 4% that have million s sell into the move and it freezes coinbase. notice the lower high,s constantly being made ..sure sign of net sellers  and late people to the party ..... creating the new lower high,s it is closing in on a crash.... once it bust below 10K  next stop ZERO   

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2018, 06:06:17 AM »
Everyone knows it will end in tears, anything speculative that isn't backed by fundamentals always does.  It is the interim period of moving assets from elite 4% who own 97% of all cryptocurrencies to the masses is the process that will be interesting and filled with opportunity.  Bitcoin was $31 in July 2011, by December it was $2, today it is $12,000, a year from now it could drop to $2,000 and then rally to $200,000, nobody knows, which is why it is a traders dream and longer term holders nightmare. 

The blockchain technology will create true wealth, so those that find opportunities to create these companies will do just fine. 

Warren is too old to learn new tricks.  He missed all the FANG stocks that are worth multiples of berkshire over 15 year period vs berkshire 50 year period. He did finally buy some Apple at $109 in 2016, but thought it was overvalued from $2 in 2004 through $100 in 2015.  He didn't even own microsoft despite being buddies with Bill. 

If you are your 60s Warren way is the correct approach, but in your 20-40s you need to play what is working now and make many shifts as technology disrupts everything.  I certainly wouldn't want to open a bricks and mortar coin store right now, but 50 years ago that would have made you millions by now. 

Offline jc888888888

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2018, 07:15:29 AM »
You have valid points Arif as always ..... block-chain technology is extraordinary and revolutionary  bit coin is simply not the way to invest in it IMHO  ,  now on to Warren Buffet :)  he has doubled the S&P return since 1965 no one can claim that record:) and did it safely with only a negative return in a couple of years in that 50 year time span.Overall Gain 1.9million % vs S&P500 12,700% pretty impressive
   Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-2016 ............................ Warren 20.8%     S&P 500 9.7%
   Overall Gain – 1964-2016 ............................................... Warren 1,972,595%    S&P 500 12,717%
Lets talk about FANG stocks(full disclosure I own them all)
Lets pick one: the most famous of them all IMHO APPLE  that you mention
If you invested $1000 in the IPO of APPLE in 1980 your $1000 would be worth $394,000.00 if you reinvested Dividends and took in account stock splits.Pretty Darn good
NOW : Now lets take a look at washed up Warren:) 1980 you invest $1000 in Berkshire Hathaway you got $510,808.00 today:)
Why I admire Buffet? he is an opportunist extraordinaire: lets take 2008 financial crisis : people thought the banking world was going to end :) What does he do he tries to buy all of Bank of America for $5 a share:) .THE BEST PART : He takes this huge position with a loan to BOA @10% interest and a massive amount of Warrants that he can exercise or not exercise to buy stock At apx $6  the guy smells blood in the water as good or better than anyone :)  IS he the absolute best place to invest .....who knows?? but if you want relative safety and pretty darn good returns  it does not hurt to tuck a few bucks away with the old man:)


Offline jc888888888

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2018, 07:44:31 AM »
Dont get the wrong impression here ...... If you are a very nimble astute trader and can take on risk you can make millions trading crypto in the next who knows what time period . Arif is absolutely right.  Anything that swings 25% in a day is a traders DREAM. If you trade cyrto their is nothing more volatile..... again traders dream:) .You better have HUGE DISCIPLINE and clear a position daily in my humble opinion ....you never know if you are going to wake up, up 50% or down 50%:)   

Offline bonke

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #8 on: January 16, 2018, 11:36:01 AM »
Arif

I know little or nothing about cryptocurrencies.  I do not even know enough to get in trouble. 

If you are participating as a long-term investor or day-trader, you have opened one or more accounts to facilitate the transactions.  is it possible to protect your money in the account from loss while it is not invested in one of the cryptocurrency products?  Or is the money at risk by just being in the account needed to facilitate the purchase and sale of the various products?

As a stock investor, I open an account with a brokerage house, deposit money and purchase stock.  During the time of ownership, I have a risk of movement in price.  Then, when I sell the stock, it takes three days to complete the sale.  During this three day period, I am permitted to re-invest the money, but I am not permitted to withdraw the money.  If something happens to my brokerage house in the interim, I have some government insurance to hopefully protect me from loss.  If my account balance in more than the government insurance, the brokerage house has purchased additional insurance which will hopefully protect my excess balance.

From my comments, it is obvious that I do not know what the cryptocurrency traders are doing or how they are doing it.  I do not know the risks they are taking and i certainly do not know how they are protecting against these risks.   

Mark Bonke

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #9 on: January 16, 2018, 12:53:30 PM »
Alternative cryptocurrencies are generally purchased with (and priced in terms of) bitcoin. You can then change the btc back to fiat at one of the gateway exchanges that facilitate this. Coinbase is the best known, Gemini is a better alternative.

The nature of this internet money means that it is fast. There is little to no delay in switching between cryptocurrencies as you go in and out of bitcoin each time. Similarly it is fast switching back any profits to USD.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #10 on: January 16, 2018, 04:29:21 PM »
I have been trading future for more than 30 years and watching bitcoin future since CME started it on Dec.17, 2017. Attached are charts for BTCF18 contract from 12/17/2017 to today. For comparison, chart for 30 year Treasury bond (USH18) also attached for the same period.

The margin requirement for bitcoin contract (5 bitcoins/contract) is $88,900 while margin requirement for Treasury bond is $2,750. In other words, you can trade 32 contracts of Treasury bond with the same amount of money for one bitcoin contract. If you short bitcoin and Treasury bond from 12/17/2017 to today, the profit for bitcoin trade is $36,685 ((18782-11445) x 5), while Treasury bond trade nets $113,600 ((154.05-150.41) x 1,000 x 32). IMO, no knowledgeable future trader will trade bitcoin future at current margin requirement. It is just not cost-effective. More trading activities will be happened only when the bitcoin valuation drops to about $2,000 and margin requirement to about $10,000.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2018, 07:31:06 AM »
You have valid points Arif as always ..... block-chain technology is extraordinary and revolutionary  bit coin is simply not the way to invest in it IMHO  ,  now on to Warren Buffet :)  he has doubled the S&P return since 1965 no one can claim that record:) and did it safely with only a negative return in a couple of years in that 50 year time span.Overall Gain 1.9million % vs S&P500 12,700% pretty impressive
   Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-2016 ............................ Warren 20.8%     S&P 500 9.7%
   Overall Gain – 1964-2016 ............................................... Warren 1,972,595%    S&P 500 12,717%
Lets talk about FANG stocks(full disclosure I own them all)
Lets pick one: the most famous of them all IMHO APPLE  that you mention
If you invested $1000 in the IPO of APPLE in 1980 your $1000 would be worth $394,000.00 if you reinvested Dividends and took in account stock splits.Pretty Darn good
NOW : Now lets take a look at washed up Warren:) 1980 you invest $1000 in Berkshire Hathaway you got $510,808.00 today:)
Why I admire Buffet? he is an opportunist extraordinaire: lets take 2008 financial crisis : people thought the banking world was going to end :) What does he do he tries to buy all of Bank of America for $5 a share:) .THE BEST PART : He takes this huge position with a loan to BOA @10% interest and a massive amount of Warrants that he can exercise or not exercise to buy stock At apx $6  the guy smells blood in the water as good or better than anyone :)  IS he the absolute best place to invest .....who knows?? but if you want relative safety and pretty darn good returns  it does not hurt to tuck a few bucks away with the old man:)






What is Buffet's opinion of precious metals?     I read he once owned a lot of silver bullion then sold it about 10 yrs ago?     Buffet was the first to label derivatives "weapons of financial destruction".      The West is full of derivatives (thanks to W. Bush) so Buffet knows where that leads to.      Why does he not promote bullion or PM?     What is his opinion?.....

Offline jc888888888

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2018, 07:49:41 AM »
Actually he does not like metals  ..this is an area we disagree:)   Buffet is real old school he is still walking around with a flip phone...he buys good businesses at a discount he understands and tries to hold it forever,  .....you can knock him for not understanding  Tech and staying away from it. that is understood... but once he gets it he is all in ...He currently owns more than 5% of Apple  .one could argue he got in late ??  on the flip side the biggest move in the shortest period of time in apple stock has taken place at his entry point at apx $100 a share, $170 now (look at the chart)...  one could also theorize part of that huge short term move  had something to do with him entering into the stock, a lot of people watch his moves very closely... What interest me most is he willing to add to that position at these $170 levels. 

Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2018, 04:39:56 PM »
Mark:

Cryptocurrency exchanges are not regulated, so the cash in the account is not insured. And there is no guarantee cash and/or coins in the account will not be misplaced, mishandled, or worse, the entire account gets suspended, for reason of possible criminal activity, such as money laundering, at the exchange’s discretion. If you trade bitcoin, you will also encounter long waits (hours) for a trade to get confirmed. This is because the bitcoin blackchain is not designed to handle such large amount of trades fast. And this is why there is a talk about increasing the block size, a thing which is already done in bitcoin cash, after the hardfolk.

There is a bitcoin investment trust traded at the otc market that you can check out. Its symbol is GBTC. This is a much safer way of investing in bitcoin, not counting the volatility factor.

Offline jc888888888

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2018, 05:59:54 PM »
Baron 88  is correct GBTC is safer but the premium (fee)  is huge anywhere from 20 to 100%  you are in many instances paying double the spot price    do your research ....