Author Topic: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017  (Read 4146 times)

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Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« on: March 17, 2017, 08:46:42 PM »
Key date sets and 1/2oz gold panda are signalling a turning point in the gold panda market after a sharp correction in the second half of 2016.

Inventory being sold into the market is very tight.  The % of unsophisticated or weak hand sellers continues to hit multi-year lows and should continue to decline unless gold spikes a few hundred dollars.

Demand is very strong for certain key and semi-key coins relative to December 2016.  Demand for the more common coins is flat to down, which is a good indicator that the current run hasn't run its course, when the common stuff starts spiking then another peak in the market may be nearing.

Offline mazinger7000

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Re: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2017, 11:47:41 PM »
thanks once more arif for your thorough work on charting all this info over the years. it's invaluable stuff.  it's also exciting to hear good news about the market from someone knowledgable and honest like yourself.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« Reply #2 on: March 18, 2017, 03:16:21 AM »
Do you know the reason why the price spike for 2016 was more acute and reached higher levels than in previous years? What is the expectation for price trends in the short-medium term (1-5 years)? Thanks for insight.
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Offline r3globe

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Re: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« Reply #3 on: March 18, 2017, 11:45:54 AM »
Arif, thanks again for your very credible insight. However, I would love to get your response on the following:

Global economy is very uncertain and volatility will explode. There will be one last panic into the dollar to possibly surpass 1985 highs in the next 12 months. That will definitely affect gold and coins. Key date coins will fair much better than common dates, but they will be affected in the uncertain period. During that panic, there might be one last PANIC and strongest of hands will start selling. Market bottoms are not made until most hardcore faithful start giving up!

Now,capital is trying to flee china (through bitcoins and other ways). Once that capital decides to stay in China. Then, huge fortunes will be made in Gold pandas.

Offline r3globe

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Re: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« Reply #4 on: March 18, 2017, 11:47:23 AM »
For the average buyer, do not go all in yet. Spread your buys, and wait patiently.

Offline Birdman

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Re: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« Reply #5 on: March 18, 2017, 06:46:11 PM »
It is interesting that you labeled the last year on your figure as the "confusion period."  Would you care to expand on that?

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« Reply #6 on: March 19, 2017, 09:15:36 AM »
In other financial charts the "confusion" period is the time for "market correction" and "taking of profits".
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Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« Reply #7 on: March 19, 2017, 11:01:39 AM »
Confusion period in my opinion has several cross currents, some of which have been stated by others on this forum:

Negatives
1) rising interest rates in the US, which makes dollar stronger.
2) anti-China rhetoric from Trump targeting trade and rmb currency.
3) weaking rmb relative to basket of currencies.
4) directionless gold price.
5) retail buyers thinking better opportunity to buy around the corner.

Positives
1) master set demand for key coins exceeds available supply
2) middle class wealth continues to grow and demand for modern coins grows as seen by higher mintage of new issues and more new issues.
3) higher global inflation expectations.
4) tighter currency controls for mainland retail buyers.
5) key coins in strong hands with very little new supply available in US and Germany.
6) very low retail participation in the US with dealers hoarding key coins.
7) over valued real estate market in major mainland cities, making collectibles more attractive.

The spike in June 2016 was caused by master set demand, with key coin inventory in strong hands it took a large percentage change in prices to draw out sellers.  The trough in December 2016 was caused by lack of master set demand in November-December and depreciation of rmb from 6.5 to 6.9.

Two things I am fairly confident about:
1) the next master set buying spree will create even larger spike for certain key and semi key coins as supply is even tighter today than last year.
2) retail buyers thinking an opportunity to acquire key and semi key gold panda coins at better prices is around corner will be disappointed, because dealers holding  those coins will support prices, unless a very large hoard comes to market or rmb currency meltsdown.

Notice the color I choose for the confusion period is green, that should be a clue of my bias.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2017, 06:52:06 PM »
Got to say it again, yes ad nauseum, but the yearly change in coin design and the extensive and still continued growth of information surrounding these Panda coins, make this likely to be a very long running and viable numismatic coin series. Add to these and other reasons the very wide base of the pyramid on which the early mintages form the tip of.  N38
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Offline pandamonium

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Re: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« Reply #9 on: March 19, 2017, 07:34:14 PM »
The moderators here continue to cancel my posts so i contacted Snowball to allow my posts....

Google to Koos Jansen his articles are usually on Goldseek or Bullionstar....Have never read any articles that dispute his information...

He says China now owns over 21+ tons of gold.    The USA claims 8+ tons of gold but even Mr Trump says it was sold...
When China shows their gold holdings it will be game over as capitol flight will flow to China.     I stated this years ago.   Even common gold or silver pandas will rise to the moon above bullion.     It is now a matter of time......

Offline Birdman

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Re: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« Reply #10 on: March 19, 2017, 08:12:44 PM »
The moderators here continue to cancel my posts so i contacted Snowball to allow my posts....


Pandamonium,

I cancelled your previous post because it seemed to have little to do with the thread it was posted on, which was KeyDate1/2Panda's data-driven comments on gold panda investments.  Your post ranged from remarks on fake news, to recommendations of your favorite news channels and commentators, to speculation on conspiracy theories.  In moderating, I try to keep us focused on Chinese coins.  Please make the job of the moderator easy by staying focused :)

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2017, 09:42:31 PM »
Take time to read my (deleted) posts and look up the information.   I do not give details, that is up to the reader if they choose to learn.    I do not want to start a new topic.   Conspiracy theories are in your mind.    Look into it and weigh it out.   The truth is out there, we just got to find it.   The information i gave will soon affect all gold pandas, MCC, bullion, etc.     For example, Koos Jansen's information relates to gold pandas doesn't it?....

Offline eric

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Re: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2017, 12:19:36 AM »
Pandamonium,

I cancelled your previous post because it seemed to have little to do with the thread it was posted on, which was KeyDate1/2Panda's data-driven comments on gold panda investments.  Your post ranged from remarks on fake news, to recommendations of your favorite news channels and commentators, to speculation on conspiracy theories.  In moderating, I try to keep us focused on Chinese coins.  Please make the job of the moderator easy by staying focused :)

I never saw the deleted posts so I should probably stay out of it, but in pandamonium's defense I think those topics (fake news, commentators about Gold in China, and even conspiracy theories) are somewhat relevant to the original post and the follow up posts from others. There is discussion of global economy, gold prices, rmb currency... all with the focus of figuring out what has happened and is happening, with the purpose of predicting what is going to happen next. IMO pandamonium is bringing information to the table about what is happening which may affect gold prices, china currency, and by extension MCC. But I can see the case for making a new thread for it.

*please don't smite me  :thumbup1:

*also want to say I think it's a great chart Arif made, I love seeing that info. Great stuff.

Screen shot from blog pandamonium mentioned...

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« Reply #13 on: March 20, 2017, 12:30:16 AM »
Pandemonium, you should create your own thread to which you add comments, blogs, ideas etc that fit into your world view. When I open *your* thread, I'll know what to expect. When I open *this* thread, I don't want to read Zero Hedge or King World News type stuff. I go to Zero Hedge or KWN for that. I come here for discussion about MCC, discussion deeper than "prices are headed to the moon!," which is what I often take away from your posts. I am not trying to offend, at all, simply stating my opinion about what I do and do no want to see in CCF threads.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2017, 08:10:36 AM »
Sounds fair to me, will start a topic next time.   The world markets are changing at a faster pace now.....MCC will rule...

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« Reply #15 on: March 20, 2017, 02:26:21 PM »
Pandamonium,

I cancelled your previous post because it seemed to have little to do with the thread it was posted on, which was KeyDate1/2Panda's data-driven comments on gold panda investments.  Your post ranged from remarks on fake news, to recommendations of your favorite news channels and commentators, to speculation on conspiracy theories.  In moderating, I try to keep us focused on Chinese coins.  Please make the job of the moderator easy by staying focused :)

I agree with you that the post be delated. I did see the post. The Jansen's article was mentioned in the first sentence and the rest posting was political statements and had nothing to do with coin collection, gold valuation or China.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« Reply #16 on: March 20, 2017, 02:38:14 PM »
Key date sets and 1/2oz gold panda are signalling a turning point in the gold panda market after a sharp correction in the second half of 2016.

Inventory being sold into the market is very tight.  The % of unsophisticated or weak hand sellers continues to hit multi-year lows and should continue to decline unless gold spikes a few hundred dollars.

Demand is very strong for certain key and semi-key coins relative to December 2016.  Demand for the more common coins is flat to down, which is a good indicator that the current run hasn't run its course, when the common stuff starts spiking then another peak in the market may be nearing.

Very interesting chart. If the base line started on June 2013, for about 4 years, the valuation of spot gold and common date has not changed, while semi-key date, key date and 1/2 set have been appreciated about 10%, 50% and 65% respectively.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« Reply #17 on: March 21, 2017, 12:28:09 AM »
Good observation.  The common dates are really not that common anymore, trying to find a 2002 1/2 or 1/4 is almost as tough as some of the 1999 1/2 and 1/4. 

Also what has happened in the last 3 years is premiums on 1, 1/10, 1/20 have come down, while premiums on 1/2 and 1/4 gone up for common year dates. A 2002 set price hasn't changed much, but 1/10 value as come down by $1000, while 1/2 and 1/4 value has increased by a $1000.

Offline xiaohei99

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Re: Gold Panda Investment Chart, March 15, 2017
« Reply #18 on: March 27, 2017, 08:03:55 PM »
Also what has happened in the last 3 years is premiums on 1, 1/10, 1/20 have come down, while premiums on 1/2 and 1/4 gone up for common year dates. A 2002 set price hasn't changed much, but 1/10 value as come down by $1000, while 1/2 and 1/4 value has increased by a $1000.

Do you know the fair price or ongoing price of 2002 ms69 set now?

It used to be a bit over $8000 several years ago, now is its price close to 2000 ms69 set?