Author Topic: Panda 50 gr gold any thoughts on these? Especially PF70 graded  (Read 1213 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline christians86

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 28
  • Karma: 1
Panda 50 gr gold any thoughts on these? Especially PF70 graded
« on: January 28, 2017, 10:47:23 AM »
I bought some of the 2016 50 grs, and while my prices were fair I'm wondering if it was a good buy. Later when I look at how they perform at NGC and PCGS I find that a small fraction, approx. 30% at best get PF70.
So I'm wondering, given the official mintage - however not confirmed of 20,0000.

1) What are your general thoughts about the 50 gr, is it worth it as a investment in a 5-10 year perspective?
2) Does the fact that very few get PF70 influence the price more than usual? I see that the bigger the coin the less the chance is of a PF70
3) Can one expect the first issue to be more valuable than the later, or will we see the same as with ordinary pandas depending on gold price
ces, actual mintage etc?

Offline KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1672
  • Karma: 51
  • Gender: Male
Re: Panda 50 gr gold any thoughts on these? Especially PF70 graded
« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2017, 11:43:41 AM »
First of all fewer people will be buying this coin due to cost considerations. It is likely that it is purely a collector item; it might maintain its price but the lower fractional coins are likely to appreciate faster and sell quicker especially if early mintage coins. These are just my thoughts and nothing scientific.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline christians86

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 28
  • Karma: 1
Re: Panda 50 gr gold any thoughts on these? Especially PF70 graded
« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2017, 11:50:20 AM »
So if I first where to have several of one it would be easier and better to have MS70 2014,2015 and 2016 if I get you correctly?

Offline Jens

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 23
  • Karma: 7
Re: Panda 50 gr gold any thoughts on these? Especially PF70 graded
« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2017, 03:27:59 PM »
I think what KOT is trying to say is that 8,15 or 30g will probably have a better chance to raise in price compared to just the gold value.
There are fewer collectors of 50g gold coins because the gold itself is worth so much already.

Offline christians86

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 28
  • Karma: 1
Re: Panda 50 gr gold any thoughts on these? Especially PF70 graded
« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2017, 04:33:00 PM »
Thanks...my gut feeling had the same feeling...hence the reason why I stopped on the 2016 version. I planned on collecting them partially as investment, but seeing the numbers for getting a PF70 I was concerned. I figured getting the MS70 on the others while they are still cheap was a better idea. I found the 8, 15 and 30 gr to close my price in norway inc premium, and cost of grading. So I will probably run with that, gives more gold for the money and its a bit more sense :)

Offline eric

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+5)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 153
  • Karma: 6
Re: Panda 50 gr gold any thoughts on these? Especially PF70 graded
« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2017, 04:09:16 PM »
I think there are a few ways of looking at it. But your qualifier of "5-10 year perspective" is a big factor.

For 5-10 year investment, I think purchasing the 50g gold panda is similar to buying any gold bullion. The biggest thing that will affect its value is gold prices. Based on what the collector market looks like today, it just doesn't look like a high number of collectors will be looking to buy 50g gold pandas in the near future (like what the other guys said above).

That having been said, buying and holding some 50g proof coins could make sense, especially from a contrarian investment standpoint. Today there are a lot more 30g gold panda collectors, even though they're minting 700k of them compared to 20k for the 50g proof. But history (which is a short history dating back only to 1982) thus far has shown that the lower mintage pandas eventually get recognized and valued by collectors.

Just because there are not "a lot" of buyers for an item doesn't mean its not a good investment. It's just less liquid. There are few 5 oz gold panda buyers, fewer 12 oz gold panda buyers, and even fewer 1kg gold buyers. But for a seller of a 1kg gold panda, you only need one buyer. Some of those coins have sold for hundreds of thousands of dollars more than their original purchase price.

I also think your strategy to get PF70 makes sense. If yours comes back as PF69, you could turn around and sell it and keep trying for PF70. An example would be 2007 1 oz gold panda in MS70 (a coin that is just 10 years old). That coin in MS69 sells for about $200 over spot, but in MS70 it sells for $1000 over spot, because of the relative scarcity of the MS70. So if you're seeing that a small percentage of the 50g gold proofs are getting PF70, it could make sense to hold onto some of those.

Offline polldav

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 22
  • Karma: 2
Re: Panda 50 gr gold any thoughts on these? Especially PF70 graded
« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2017, 11:17:13 AM »
Do you guys think that the increase in 70 grades for new coins is just because the minting process has gotten better, or is there something else strange going on at NGC? Are they also grading older coins at generally higher grades nowadays?

Offline eric

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+5)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 153
  • Karma: 6
Re: Panda 50 gr gold any thoughts on these? Especially PF70 graded
« Reply #7 on: February 19, 2017, 07:22:49 PM »
Do you guys think that the increase in 70 grades for new coins is just because the minting process has gotten better, or is there something else strange going on at NGC? Are they also grading older coins at generally higher grades nowadays?

There was a recent discussion related to that topic. http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=13278

I personally think the main reason for increase in 70 for new MCC is because the minting process is better. Of course the population for newer coins is higher because the mintage #'s are bigger too. But there are definitely arguments being made that the grading companies have relaxed their standards.