Author Topic: A controlled comparison of a dealer's buy prices for G1/2 pandas over 12 months  (Read 1219 times)

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Offline Birdman

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I noticed that Arif made a post offering to buy ½ Gold Pandas today.  “Buying ½ Gold Pandas” http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=13215.msg78470;topicseen#msg78470  December 24, 2016

I recall that he started a similar thread about one year ago “Buying ½ Gold Pandas”   http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=12083.msg70561#msg70561  January 18, 2016

These two data sets offer a very interesting, somewhat controlled, comparison for how the market has changed over one year.  Gold price was about the same in Jan 18, 2016 ($1090/oz), as it is now on Dec 24, 2016  ($1130).  Similarly, it was the first buy price of the season by the same dealer.

I’ve created a table below.  I respect Arif a lot for putting is buy prices out there for all to see.  Some people (but not all) who post that they are buying, but don’t post prices, may be looking to catch some sucker to contact them and sell for way below market value.  Arif is very transparent here with this public post, and anyone is free to post higher buy prices.  He is an honest and fair dealer. I have bought many coins from him and sold many coins to him.  I hope he doesn’t mind me making this post regarding his buy prices.  It is not meant to scrutinize.  It is meant to be a somewhat scientific comparison to see how the market for different coins is changing.

                      1/18/2016      12/24/2016      % change in buying price
1982 1/2         Not Buying      $1850         X
1984 1/2         N.B.         $1075         X
1990 1/2         $1025         $1275         +24%
1991 1/2         $1125         $1225         +9%
1992 1/2         $975         $1125         +15%
1993 1/2         $1050         $1125         +7%
1994 1/2         N.B.         $5600         X
1995 1/2         N.B.              $13000              X
1996 1/2         $1700         $3300         +94%
1997 1/2         $3050         $3500         +15%
1998 1/2         N.B.          $6000         X
1999 1/2        $2050         $2500         +22%
2000 1/2        $1650         $2700         +64%
2001 1/2        $1200         $1425         +19%
2002 1/2        N.B.         $1375         X
2003 1/2        $1250         $2750         +120%
2004 1/2         N.B.         $850                 X
2005 1/2         N.B.          $1050         X
2006 1/2         N.B.          $900         X
2007 1/2         $950          $800         -16%
2008 1/2         $950          $1100         +16%
2009 1/2         N.B.           $750         X
2010 ½        $950            N.B.          X

The percent change for each coin is interesting.  Also, what this very smart dealer was or wasn't buying last year at this time, but is this year, can be informative.  There are, of course, a few caveats in applying this data set to the broader market.  Individual dealers may be offered different collections to buy, and they might be sitting on a healthy supply of a given coin already after being offered a few sheets of coins, even if it is tough to find in the general market.  That might cause them to have a softer buy price than another dealer, since they don't want to have overly large exposure to a given coin.  Similarly, the same dealer, by chance, might not have been offered a particular coin by the coin shops that call him, even though it is reasonably available in the general market.  That might cause the dealer to offer a slightly higher buy price than another dealer would in order to increase his exposure to that coin.

Having stated the caveats, take the data for what they are worth.  I guess I should also repeat my disclosure that I have quite a few G1/2 (hence my interest in analyzing how the market is doing).

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Here is full buy list comparison.  Couldn't get table to paste into the message, see attached.

Offline Birdman

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Thanks for sharing, Arif.  Interesting data.

Offline mazinger7000

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thanks to both of you for posting this great data. i agree that arif has always been amazing to deal with and also deeply informative here on the forum. i and many others have studied his posts over the years and learned a great deal.
it's encouraging to see some top dealers starting to buy again after the recent down period too. it could make a person wonder what might be going on in the market, or perhaps it's just a good time to buy because prices are low again. full disclosure i also own several G halves and want them to do well.