Author Topic: basic question on gold BU panda 1995 vs 1998 1/2oz  (Read 3423 times)

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Offline PandaOrLunar

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basic question on gold BU panda 1995 vs 1998 1/2oz
« on: December 24, 2016, 01:03:01 AM »
The answer is probably burned in the forum already.

But here go anyway.

1995 1/2 gold panda mintage is 11,749 vs 1998 1/2 gold panda mintage 4,168?

Why 1995 price is more than double the 1998?


Offline Hippanda

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Re: basic question on gold BU panda 1995 vs 1998 1/2oz
« Reply #1 on: December 24, 2016, 01:34:11 AM »
WG possibly sitting on 7,000 of 'em ? LOL



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Re: basic question on gold BU panda 1995 vs 1998 1/2oz
« Reply #2 on: December 24, 2016, 03:55:35 AM »
The answer is probably burned in the forum already.

But here go anyway.

1995 1/2 gold panda mintage is 11,749 vs 1998 1/2 gold panda mintage 4,168?

Why 1995 price is more than double the 1998?



The actual population of the 1995 is lower. It is the key coin in the series.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

Offline PandaOrLunar

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Re: basic question on gold BU panda 1995 vs 1998 1/2oz
« Reply #3 on: December 24, 2016, 04:12:39 AM »
The actual population of the 1995 is lower...
What pop are we looking at?

Offline ccl

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Re: basic question on gold BU panda 1995 vs 1998 1/2oz
« Reply #4 on: December 24, 2016, 02:26:51 PM »
We have 130 sales for 1998 1/2 oz gold pandas, 105 for 1995 1/2 oz gold pandas. Naturally, some sales will be the same coin reselling.

NGC say they have graded 381 1/2 oz gold pandas from 1998. 277 1/2 oz gold pandas from 1995.

This is a better barometer of relative availability/ scarcity than most other metrics at this point.

Also, consider the demand-side not just supply-side on the price of any piece.

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Re: basic question on gold BU panda 1995 vs 1998 1/2oz
« Reply #5 on: December 24, 2016, 03:58:47 PM »
What pop are we looking at?

I could recommend a book that has this information, but it might be a little self-serving. NGC population reports are a good start.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

Offline PandaOrLunar

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Re: basic question on gold BU panda 1995 vs 1998 1/2oz
« Reply #6 on: December 24, 2016, 10:29:08 PM »
I could recommend a book that has this information, but it might be a little self-serving...

I got the books.  Only problem is there are couple of hundreds of miles between me and the books  :lol:

Online KeepOnTrying!

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Re: basic question on gold BU panda 1995 vs 1998 1/2oz
« Reply #7 on: December 25, 2016, 03:58:25 AM »
According to the second edition of the "Gold and Silver Panda Coin Buyer's Guide" the estimated population of the 1995 1/2oz gold panda BU coin is less than 1750 (page 99) while that of the 1998 BU coin is less than 2500 (page 124).
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Offline poconopenn

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Re: basic question on gold BU panda 1995 vs 1998 1/2oz
« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2016, 04:59:32 PM »
I could recommend a book that has this information, but it might be a little self-serving. NGC population reports are a good start.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

Peter,

The population estimate was revised slightly in your second edition vs. first edition. Have you done any major revision in your new edition? As attached table suggested, the population estimates in your book do not correlated to the current market valuation. The correlation of actual mintage to the market price is slightly better, but not too much.
  
IMO, arif’s bid prices are fair and in consistency with the current bid prices by major dealers inside China.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=13218.msg78504;topicseen#msg78504

Just for information.

Prior to 2007, before the People’s Bank of China published the mintage data for gold pandas, 1995 was considered to be the # 1 key yearly set. Therefore, collectors in US/EU bought most of them and still held them in their collection. However, for 1998, the low mintage was not known until 2007 and Chinese dealers had the information before US dealers/collectors and bought many of them immediately, thus the price of ½ oz.1998 gold panda had reached about $38,000 at the peak. To this date, some Chinese dealers are still holding their very expensive 1998 gold panda and no shortage of it for the master set. IMO, the current valuation of gold panda is controlled by few large dealers inside China and totally depends on their inventory situation. Any one of them decides to buy few of key coins will make significant price upward in a very short period of time, since the mintage of those key coins is so low.  
         
Population Estimate (2nd Edition of Peter's book ) vs. bid on 12/24/2016 posted by arif for 1/2 oz. gold panda         
         
Date             Population Estimate     Arif 's buying price     Actual Mintage
1995                1,750                         $13,000                     11,739
1996                1,750                         $3,300                     13,849
1994                2,000                          $5,600                     16,788
1998                2,500                          $6,000                      4,168
1991                2,500                          $1,225                     32,717
2002                2,900                          $1,375                     28,514
1992                3,000                          $1,125                     26,495
1993                3,000                          $1,125                     31,254
2000                3,000                          $2,700                     20,811
2001                3,000                          $1,425                     33,215
2003                3,000                          $2,750                     25,000
1999                3,500                          $2,500                     12,482
1997               4,000                          $3,500                     15,463
1982             7,000                          $1,850                     13,391
         

Offline ccl

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Re: basic question on gold BU panda 1995 vs 1998 1/2oz
« Reply #9 on: December 27, 2016, 05:09:50 PM »
Peter, how do you come up with an estimate that is more reliable than official numbers? Did you obtain any information from the Mint which makes the official numbers no longer valid?

Online KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: basic question on gold BU panda 1995 vs 1998 1/2oz
« Reply #10 on: December 27, 2016, 08:04:19 PM »
Peter estimates surviving population, not actual mintage.  Many/most gold panda coins were melted between 1992-2001, so surviving populations is more important that actual mintage.   

Every 6 months I update my model on surviving population with help of NGC and PCGS pop reports and what is available in the market, then use the information to selectively buy certain coins.   That is secret to buying before the big dealers are forced to buy.  Popo table shows that 1996 1/2 is still mispriced if Peter estimates of surviving populations is correct.

Offline ccl

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Re: basic question on gold BU panda 1995 vs 1998 1/2oz
« Reply #11 on: December 27, 2016, 08:16:59 PM »
good, thanks!

Offline poconopenn

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Re: basic question on gold BU panda 1995 vs 1998 1/2oz
« Reply #12 on: December 27, 2016, 09:06:27 PM »
Peter estimates surviving population, not actual mintage.  Many/most gold panda coins were melted between 1992-2001, so surviving populations is more important that actual mintage.   
 

The surviving population estimate in Peter's book excludes all coins with grade less than 66.

Offline Birdman

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Re: basic question on gold BU panda 1995 vs 1998 1/2oz
« Reply #13 on: December 28, 2016, 05:36:24 PM »
Peter estimates surviving population, not actual mintage.  Many/most gold panda coins were melted between 1992-2001, so surviving populations is more important that actual mintage.   

Every 6 months I update my model on surviving population with help of NGC and PCGS pop reports and what is available in the market, then use the information to selectively buy certain coins.   That is secret to buying before the big dealers are forced to buy.  Popo table shows that 1996 1/2 is still mispriced if Peter estimates of surviving populations is correct.

And I gather from the photo of the 1996 G1/2 next to your name that you agree that it is mispriced? ;) $

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Re: basic question on gold BU panda 1995 vs 1998 1/2oz
« Reply #14 on: December 30, 2016, 03:15:05 AM »
I like all dates from 89-11, except 1994 and 1995.  1998 I have avoided but with price down in $6000s it looks safe to own again.