Author Topic: Grade rarity  (Read 3062 times)

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Offline poconopenn

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Grade rarity
« on: August 10, 2016, 01:16:23 PM »
https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/2016/08/technically-perfect-example-1989-american-eagle-silver-dollar.html?utm_medium=Email&utm_source=ExactTarget&utm_campaign=cw_editorial_rare&utm_content=

Perfect (MS70) 1989 silver eagle fetched $14,000 in recent HA auction. There are 8753 MS69, but only have 7 in MS70.

It is possible that some earlier silver pandas with low population of MS70 can have the same potential to reach a very high valuation in the future.

For example, NGC has grade 1985 of 1998 BU silver panda, only 1 (S.D.) is MS70

Offline Tao-Panda

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Re: Grade rarity
« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2016, 01:47:56 PM »
Tiny premium  :blink:

In fact, there are 12 MS70 graded by PCGS and the value is estimated at $21000 by PCGS:
http://www.pcgscoinfacts.com/Coin/Detail/9826


The jump from the grade 69 to 70 is very tiny  N20

Offline silverpv

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Re: Grade rarity
« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2016, 02:23:13 PM »
It is possible if the china population cares about it, right now they don't at the same level. Is it possible by me? No, never. Your typical american will never pay that kind of money for a foreign modern coin when they have US coins as their primary market. Then you ask yourself, would you pay $15,000 for a 1985 silver ms70? probably only if you had more money than you knew what to do with and your coin collecting friends bidding up to get to $15k

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Grade rarity
« Reply #3 on: August 10, 2016, 04:08:01 PM »
It is possible if the china population cares about it, right now they don't at the same level. Is it possible by me? No, never. Your typical american will never pay that kind of money for a foreign modern coin when they have US coins as their primary market. Then you ask yourself, would you pay $15,000 for a 1985 silver ms70? probably only if you had more money than you knew what to do with and your coin collecting friends bidding up to get to $15k

Sociology 101: The typical American is not monolithic!
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Offline silverpv

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Re: Grade rarity
« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2016, 05:12:48 PM »
Sociology 101: The typical American is not monolithic!

The sentence was conditional, "when they have US coins as their primary market". I still stand by it too. Your typical American will not even pay $100 for a silver 1 oz coin. You are talking a subset of a subset of people who would actually purchase. Coin collectors in general is a very small niche and if I'm not mistaken, your typical american barely has less than $1,000 in the bank at any given time.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/most-americans-have-less-than-1000-in-savings-2015-10-06

It is the niche collectors that drive up prices. The more collectors the higher the prices go, classic supply and demand. As of not demand is not high enough to drive prices up. When i started doin videos, a lot of people didn't even like pandas. They associated them with all the negative things and China. Many say they won't buy china gold/silver because they don't want to support communist dictatorship, though the tide has changed a bit since then. A lot less of that now-a-days, but still most would never pay that much for a 1 oz silver panda, hell most won't pay for a silver dollar. Look how many people complain about the gold mercury dime @ $205 and they are collectors! Let alone breaking 5 digits for a chinese coin most have no idea what it is. I still get 50% of viewers thinking every chinese coin is fake. lol.

Offline jc888888888

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Re: Grade rarity
« Reply #5 on: August 10, 2016, 08:39:38 PM »
well who knows, but I have seen a fair amount of ms70 panda,s sell in the $1000 to $4000 range ..I once owned 30 sheets of 1996 sd and ld pandas I would periodically grade a few sheets and I was fortunate enough to grade 4 or so ms70  I never had any problem selling them for $1500 usd  ( I have 1 in my collection) 1996 IS NOT a rare panda per say, 2001 small d :) lol everyone remembers that coin  $3000 to $5000 ms70, ms 69 750 to 1200  so $14000 for a truly rare graded ms70 silver panda not far fetched at all IMHO

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Grade rarity
« Reply #6 on: August 10, 2016, 09:04:44 PM »
Tiny premium  :blink:

In fact, there are 12 MS70 graded by PCGS and the value is estimated at $21000 by PCGS:
http://www.pcgscoinfacts.com/Coin/Detail/9826


The jump from the grade 69 to 70 is very tiny  N20

Apparently, PCGS has a tougher standard than NGC in grading silver eagles, therefore, a much higher premium. 

Offline silverpv

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Re: Grade rarity
« Reply #7 on: August 10, 2016, 10:27:26 PM »
Apparently, PCGS has a tougher standard than NGC in grading silver eagles, therefore, a much higher premium. 

The volume graded is different as well. I'm surprised that so few were graded by PCGS compared to NGC. NGC looks on avg 100k submitted where as PCGS has only 10k, just about 10x less. So I wouldn't necessarily say its tougher standards, but from the ones that I've owned, I do think there is a visable difference between a MS70 in NGC and PCGS, specifically I noticed more depth, which would support the tougher standards. I've also clearly seen terrible pandas in pcgs ms70's and ngc has a stricter standard. So I don't know.

 

Offline Tao-Panda

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Re: Grade rarity
« Reply #8 on: August 11, 2016, 06:38:15 AM »
Apparently, PCGS has a tougher standard than NGC in grading silver eagles, therefore, a much higher premium.  
Sincerly, is there any good reason to pay 10 times much higher for a MS70 PCGS (14000 USD) ?
The same coin graded by NGC is worth 1350 USD.
It could be a good idea to buy 10 NGC and submit them for crossing over  N16

If they is really a difference in grading standard, I do not see why these standard would not be applied to any other coins too... like MCC.

As told in another topic, there are many urban legends about grading.

I have had a discussion about grading with a dealer who is active since 30 years into coins market.
For the record, he is not active in MCC and his business is old gold coins which can reach dozens of euros.
What he told me is based on his 30 years experience:

"Both main grading corporation, PCGS and NGC, are commercial corporation.
Their goal is to make profit.
To make profit, they need to keep their customers and to get more customers.
If they are too strict, they will loose customers and if they are too laxist, they loose customers too.
So, they are always trying too find the right equilibrium to maximalize their customers basis.
It means that sometimes, they are stricter and sometimes laxister.
But at the end, PCGS and NGC are equal."

But it is an undeniable fact that NGC grades much more MCC coins (and, as far as I can see, US coins) than PCGS.

Offline jc888888888

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Re: Grade rarity
« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2016, 06:49:13 AM »
As told in another topic, there are many urban legends about grading.

I have had a discussion about grading with a dealer who is active since 30 years into coins market.
For the record, he is not active in MCC and his business is old gold coins which can reach dozens of euros.
What he told me is based on his 30 years experience:

"Both main grading corporation, PCGS and NGC, are commercial corporation.
Their goal is to make profit.
To make profit, they need to keep their customers and to get more customers.
If they are too strict, they will loose customers and if they are too laxist, they loose customers too.
So, they are always trying too find the right equilibrium to maximalize their customers basis.
It means that sometimes, they are stricter and sometimes laxister.
But at the end, PCGS and NGC are equal."

But it is an undeniable fact that NGC grades much more MCC coins (and, as far as I can see, US coins) than PCGS.

Too add to that on both on the MCC and the US side NGC has some huge customers that live right next door ,Modern coin Mart grades huge amounts of Eagles and new issue panda,s ,Paridise mint?? many dealers are located in florida and contribute to NGC volume

Offline Tao-Panda

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Re: Grade rarity
« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2016, 06:54:56 AM »
Too add to that on both on the MCC and the US side NGC has some huge customers that live right next door ,Modern coin Mart grades huge amounts of Eagles and new issue panda,s ,Paridise mint?? many dealers are located in florida and contribute to NGC volume

This could be a very good explanation for usual coins.
But I also notice this kind of difference for some rare coins which cannot be submitted massively by these dealers.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Grade rarity
« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2016, 10:13:10 AM »
This guy has been trying to sell this PCGS PR70 5oz 2015 FUN Show Panda medal for $2999. It is supposed to be the only PCGS PR70. But several have been graded PF70 by NGC.

Item#252461232138

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2015-China-Panda-Fun-Show-First-Reverse-Proof-PCGS-PR-70-5oz-Silver-Low-Pop-of-1-/252461232138?hash=item3ac7dcb00a:g:1YsAAOSwHnFVmqBn
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Offline Tao-Panda

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Re: Grade rarity
« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2016, 10:45:38 AM »
This guy has been trying to sell this PCGS PR70 5oz 2015 FUN Show Panda medal for $2999. It is supposed to be the only PCGS PR70. But several have been graded PF70 by NGC.

Item#252461232138

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2015-China-Panda-Fun-Show-First-Reverse-Proof-PCGS-PR-70-5oz-Silver-Low-Pop-of-1-/252461232138?hash=item3ac7dcb00a:g:1YsAAOSwHnFVmqBn

I emailed him a few months ago to ask if he was serious... he was... and not very friendly.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Grade rarity
« Reply #13 on: August 11, 2016, 04:42:11 PM »
Sincerly, is there any good reason to pay 10 times much higher for a MS70 PCGS (14000 USD) ?
The same coin graded by NGC is worth 1350 USD.
It could be a good idea to buy 10 NGC and submit them for crossing over  N16

If they is really a difference in grading standard, I do not see why these standard would not be applied to any other coins too... like MCC.

As told in another topic, there are many urban legends about grading.

I have had a discussion about grading with a dealer who is active since 30 years into coins market.
For the record, he is not active in MCC and his business is old gold coins which can reach dozens of euros.
What he told me is based on his 30 years experience:

"Both main grading corporation, PCGS and NGC, are commercial corporation.
Their goal is to make profit.
To make profit, they need to keep their customers and to get more customers.
If they are too strict, they will loose customers and if they are too laxist, they loose customers too.
So, they are always trying too find the right equilibrium to maximalize their customers basis.
It means that sometimes, they are stricter and sometimes laxister.
But at the end, PCGS and NGC are equal."

But it is an undeniable fact that NGC grades much more MCC coins (and, as far as I can see, US coins) than PCGS.

The volume graded is different as well. I'm surprised that so few were graded by PCGS compared to NGC. NGC looks on avg 100k submitted where as PCGS has only 10k, just about 10x less. So I wouldn't necessarily say its tougher standards, but from the ones that I've owned, I do think there is a visable difference between a MS70 in NGC and PCGS, specifically I noticed more depth, which would support the tougher standards. I've also clearly seen terrible pandas in pcgs ms70's and ngc has a stricter standard. So I don't know.

 

The data from NGC and PCGS for silver eagles posted in my previous post (Reply #6) shown PCGS has a total of 49 out of 52335 graded as 70, while NGC is 1767 out of 510813 for the period of 1987-1991. This is about 3.5 X better chance to receive MS70 from NGC. Clearly PCGS has a tougher standard in grading silver eagles than NGC. 10 X premium received for PCGS over NGC is debatable, but, at least one collector has considered this to be a fair value.

The grading standard of NGC and PCGS for MCC was discussed in the following thread two years ago. Perhaps, I will try to update the data, since they are two years old.

 http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=10709.0

Attached is a table for the population report of NGC and PCGS graded MS70 silver panda for the period of 2012-2016. The sample size is large enough to suggest that PCGS has, at least, a similar grading standard as NGC, if it is not slightly tougher.  The data for 2016 does not include the special NGC holder for Guobao (1599) and Shanghai (1640). They were graded as MS70 (99.8%).


Offline Wafdawg

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Re: Grade rarity
« Reply #14 on: August 11, 2016, 05:39:08 PM »
The way NGC is the clear preferable option for pandas is the way PCGS is the clear preferable option for American coins.  These choices were made by the collectors. I'd even say the gap between PCGS and NGC on American coins is greater than the gap between NGC and PCGS on pandas.  American coins graded PCGS are way more desirable to the general public and are also much more expensive to grade.  When you factor in first strike and show labels they are even more expensive.