Author Topic: Influx of Chinese Pandas in the market??  (Read 6503 times)

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Offline silverpv

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Influx of Chinese Pandas in the market??
« on: July 11, 2016, 01:38:08 PM »
Is it me or do you guys notice an increase in the number of quality Pandas in the market? I think the Panda market is slowing down a little in purchases and inventory is increasing.

Offline Honus

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Re: Influx of Chinese Pandas in the market??
« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2016, 02:01:19 PM »
High prices / spiking prices always seem to bring more inventory out of the woodwork.  Plenty of collectors and investors who are just waiting for the right opportunity to take their money and run, which brings new supply to the market.   But yes, it does seem like there's good availability of many semi-key date coins.  I'm sure the key dates are still tough to find.   My guess is any spike in supply won't last, and demand will be there to soak it up, just takes time.
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Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Influx of Chinese Pandas in the market??
« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2016, 02:53:53 PM »
But their prices are quite high generally and I am not sure the expensive ones are being snapped up that fast if any!

Furthermore, "AU3" is dominating all fractionals with the sheer volume of his wares on display. It is therefore difficult knowing what is the right price to pay for those coins.

I still believe that sellers should leave some money on the table for cushioning buyers' investment in these coins. Just my opinion.
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Offline mazinger7000

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Re: Influx of Chinese Pandas in the market??
« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2016, 04:03:02 PM »
it's a good question, has been on my mind too. when a smart dealer like keydate1/2ozpandas starts listing some really great coins, and stops posting his buy prices, one must stop and wonder for a minute. but i agree that both his listings and the few other sellers offering good stuff are usually for high prices, and that includes the few coins i have listed for ambitious prices (94 half for 14K). there have been very few real auctions on eBay for key/ semi-key 1/2 pandas in the last two months. most coins are listed for buy it now. the last few real auctions a couple weeks ago ended in record pricing for raw 2000 and 2003 gold halves. i agree with honus and others that what we are seeing now is just some folks trying to cash in on historically high prices.
listing a 2003 1/2 gold panda for $5,500 or $5,400, which are the two prices currently on eBay, is analogous to listing a 95 1/2 for $30k. that hardly means the market is slowing down.

Offline Honus

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Re: Influx of Chinese Pandas in the market??
« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2016, 04:19:05 PM »
In regards to sellers leaving money on the table, to cushion buyers' investments, I'm not sure I'd look at it from that angle.  Where I think good, reputable sellers will gladly leave money on the table is with good, reputable repeat buyers.  I'm that way with our own jewelry customers - whereas I may demand $2500 for a particular piece of jewelry from an unknown buyer, I may gladly be willing to accept $2200 for that same piece from someone with whom I have history, a level of comfort, and a sense of loyalty through repeat patronage.  Most of the dealers here on this forum work that way - they'll treat their repeat buyers well, and they'll reward those buyers who don't continually "beat them up" so to speak.  But leaving money on the table just for the sake of lowering the buyer's downside risk, and only for that reason, I don't think I'd put that on a seller.    I do think that most of the good people here would prefer a fair and equitable price, if not top dollar, from someone they're comfortable working with over absolute top dollar from a buyer that causes them loss of sleep!
Eric Liquori
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Offline dynamike51

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Re: Influx of Chinese Pandas in the market??
« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2016, 05:16:14 PM »
In regards to sellers leaving money on the table, to cushion buyers' investments, I'm not sure I'd look at it from that angle.  Where I think good, reputable sellers will gladly leave money on the table is with good, reputable repeat buyers.  I'm that way with our own jewelry customers - whereas I may demand $2500 for a particular piece of jewelry from an unknown buyer, I may gladly be willing to accept $2200 for that same piece from someone with whom I have history, a level of comfort, and a sense of loyalty through repeat patronage.  Most of the dealers here on this forum work that way - they'll treat their repeat buyers well, and they'll reward those buyers who don't continually "beat them up" so to speak.  But leaving money on the table just for the sake of lowering the buyer's downside risk, and only for that reason, I don't think I'd put that on a seller.    I do think that most of the good people here would prefer a fair and equitable price, if not top dollar, from someone they're comfortable working with over absolute top dollar from a buyer that causes them loss of sleep!

Absolutely! I couldn't agree more.  N31 N31

Offline dynamike51

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Re: Influx of Chinese Pandas in the market??
« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2016, 06:20:35 PM »
I still believe that sellers should leave some money on the table for cushioning buyers' investment in these coins. Just my opinion.

You are entitled to you opinion, of course, but it's ludicrous to "believe that seller should leave some money on the table for cushioning buyers' investment" because seller (should) price the item(s) based on the market and demand for it. If the you don't like the price tag, don't buy it.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Influx of Chinese Pandas in the market??
« Reply #7 on: July 11, 2016, 06:55:44 PM »
In regards to sellers leaving money on the table, to cushion buyers' investments, I'm not sure I'd look at it from that angle.  Where I think good, reputable sellers will gladly leave money on the table is with good, reputable repeat buyers.  I'm that way with our own jewelry customers - whereas I may demand $2500 for a particular piece of jewelry from an unknown buyer, I may gladly be willing to accept $2200 for that same piece from someone with whom I have history, a level of comfort, and a sense of loyalty through repeat patronage.  Most of the dealers here on this forum work that way - they'll treat their repeat buyers well, and they'll reward those buyers who don't continually "beat them up" so to speak.  But leaving money on the table just for the sake of lowering the buyer's downside risk, and only for that reason, I don't think I'd put that on a seller.    I do think that most of the good people here would prefer a fair and equitable price, if not top dollar, from someone they're comfortable working with over absolute top dollar from a buyer that causes them loss of sleep!

Thanks for the points you make.

I have made a majority of my purchases, in the last year or so, from reputable forum members as a repeat customer, as compared to buying on other platforms such as eBay, and I understand the concepts you touched upon. (I also use similar principles in my businesses). It has even come to the point where I leave my shopping list with one of the sellers and he fills the order as items become available. There has not been a problem with this arrangement.

Again, known sellers on platforms such as eBay pull their items off the shelf for repeat customers who contact them through established channels.

The point I am making with respect to "leaving money on the table" for the buyer is that the seller needs to price his/her items so as to maximize profit but at the same time make sure that the buyer is purchasing an item that still has room to appreciate. Obviously everyone is adult and has personal responsibility to deciding on what pricing makes sense. However, those who have been successfully in business long term with longterm client relationships know that such mutually beneficial pricing practices are one of the factors that make people come back to you repeatedly to buy more items.

Without looking at my records I can say that most items I have bought from forum members have appreciated in price. The fact that the current market is upward projecting still does not invalidate the fact that their pricing was mutually beneficial. And that is the point being made, especially with pricing trends found outside the forum.
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Offline Wafdawg

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Re: Influx of Chinese Pandas in the market??
« Reply #8 on: July 12, 2016, 02:06:29 AM »
Is it me or do you guys notice an increase in the number of quality Pandas in the market? I think the Panda market is slowing down a little in purchases and inventory is increasing.

I think you're 100% right.  There's an unprecedented amount of quality pandas which suddenly flooded the market.  I've never seen so many available like this. Not even when MCM has those MCC auction events.

Looking back at the May rankings, Arif referred to this chart and stated that he believed we were in the optimism phase.  Let's take another look.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=12498.0;attach=36608

I believe we are now at the thrill stage on 1/2 oz pandas. We've had a massive run. Astute investors are already taking profits and are setting up the next run in the newly discovered semi-key dates.

As a collector I can't even decide which coins to target as the opportunity cost has exploded. These coins don't pop up often and there are plenty of priced to sell items.

"We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors… and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do." Dick Cheney

That quote applies to this market.

Offline jc888888888

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Re: Influx of Chinese Pandas in the market??
« Reply #9 on: July 12, 2016, 06:29:14 AM »
nothing goes straight up :)  things peak and retrace a bit  , then retest a previous level and either go higher or fall thru that level  .I think we have gotten a slight bit frothy but if gold price moves to 1450 it will encourage folks to buy 

Offline Birdman

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Re: Influx of Chinese Pandas in the market??
« Reply #10 on: July 12, 2016, 06:34:31 AM »
I'll share an observation I made as I checked my inventory list.

On January 15, 2015 I bought an OMP gold panda with some red spots.  It is still in my inventory as OMP.  Why?  Because I still haven't accumulated enough OMP to meet the minimum (5) to send into NCS/NGC for the better rates.  After 1 1/2 years, I still only have three waiting in the cue!   It has been so long since I've last submitted that I can't remember what the categories are.  Several years ago, I would sometimes buy MORE than 5 OMP gold pandas in ONE day.  Now I go to website after website that used to be a rich source of better-date OMP gold pandas and there are none to be found.  And, I've stopped calling around to various coin dealers, near and far, that used to be good sources of OMP pandas, because it is no longer worth my time, because it so rarely produces success.

There are a variety of factors that explain this, but bottom line, it is a lot tougher to find fresh material these days.

Prices have run up quite a bit on certain coins, and that creates a strong temptation for people to sell an extra they might have, which brings some supply on to the market.  Indeed, I have sold several coins, here and there, into this strength over the past four or five months.  Unfortunately, prices for some of those coins have doubled since then, and I haven't found any replacements, which makes me less likely to sell more of what I have.  Notice that I've been trying to work trades recently.  It is less efficient, as the chances of someone having the exact coin I'm looking for and that someone also wanting one of the coins I'm offering, and us both agreeing on value for each in this fast-changing market, is challenging.  However, working trades will keep me from selling and then not being able to buy back in at a reasonable price.

It is like we are playing musical chairs and China is steadily removing chairs.  The inexorable flow of gold pandas back to China is creating challenges.  A run up in prices may bring out a bit of fresh supply for certain coins, but I don't think it changes the long term trend of decreasing supply.




Offline 1668Chris

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Re: Influx of Chinese Pandas in the market??
« Reply #11 on: July 12, 2016, 07:14:49 AM »
I'm also behind in my submissions, but not because I don't have enough material.

Offline Birdman

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Re: Influx of Chinese Pandas in the market??
« Reply #12 on: July 12, 2016, 07:30:29 AM »
I'm also behind in my submissions, but not because I don't have enough material.

 :001_tongue:

I guess the dealers have your number on speed dial.  They probably call Arif, you, or one of the other big dealers first when they have OMP come into their shop, instead of spending their time messing with cherry-picking small fry like me  :biggrin:

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Influx of Chinese Pandas in the market??
« Reply #13 on: July 12, 2016, 07:45:00 AM »
I'm also behind in my submissions, but not because I don't have enough material.

Another wg-type stash!  :drool:
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Online pandamonium

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Re: Influx of Chinese Pandas in the market??
« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2016, 07:56:55 AM »
I'll share an observation I made as I checked my inventory list.

On January 15, 2015 I bought an OMP gold panda with some red spots.  It is still in my inventory as OMP.  Why?  Because I still haven't accumulated enough OMP to meet the minimum (5) to send into NCS/NGC for the better rates.  After 1 1/2 years, I still only have three waiting in the cue!   It has been so long since I've last submitted that I can't remember what the categories are.  Several years ago, I would sometimes buy MORE than 5 OMP gold pandas in ONE day.  Now I go to website after website that used to be a rich source of better-date OMP gold pandas and there are none to be found.  And, I've stopped calling around to various coin dealers, near and far, that used to be good sources of OMP pandas, because it is no longer worth my time, because it so rarely produces success.

There are a variety of factors that explain this, but bottom line, it is a lot tougher to find fresh material these days.

Prices have run up quite a bit on certain coins, and that creates a strong temptation for people to sell an extra they might have, which brings some supply on to the market.  Indeed, I have sold several coins, here and there, into this strength over the past four or five months.  Unfortunately, prices for some of those coins have doubled since then, and I haven't found any replacements, which makes me less likely to sell more of what I have.  Notice that I've been trying to work trades recently.  It is less efficient, as the chances of someone having the exact coin I'm looking for and that someone also wanting one of the coins I'm offering, and us both agreeing on value for each in this fast-changing market, is challenging.  However, working trades will keep me from selling and then not being able to buy back in at a reasonable price.

It is like we are playing musical chairs and China is steadily removing chairs.  The inexorable flow of gold pandas back to China is creating challenges.  A run up in prices may bring out a bit of fresh supply for certain coins, but I don't think it changes the long term trend of decreasing supply.









Agreed.    Demand is high and rising as supply is low and dropping.    Bullion still has not broke out in price yet, just small moves.   The fireworks are ahead........