Author Topic: Number of panda coin collectors  (Read 6789 times)

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Offline Herrmo93

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Number of panda coin collectors
« on: June 20, 2016, 05:29:44 PM »
How many panda coin collectors are there in the US, EU , China? Has anybody got a rough guess?
Let's say collectors who have panda coins worth more than 5000 $, to make it easier.
This Forum counts 2062 members...

The prices that people are curretnly paying for some coins (Gold 1/2 oz 1994-1998), indicate a pretty high(and increasing) demand i guess...?

Would be happy to get some info, thanks  N30


Offline silberschatzimsee

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2016, 05:45:49 PM »
For me 1/2oz is a big bubble but ok i might also only be jealous because i dont own one ;)

Offline moosician

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #2 on: June 21, 2016, 12:07:12 AM »
Bubble or not imo it will depends if the trend of set buiding/demand will continue. Also more China collectors/investors are starting to take the BU Panda market more seriously i gather?

Offline silberschatzimsee

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2016, 01:50:53 PM »
I cant believe there is such demand for explaining 25k$ for a single coin. How many masterset collectors are out there? 10-20? They already have their coins so the demand now is investordriven hopeing that even more mastercollectors are out there or start collecting. But new collcetors will go for the new metric system and would not care about the old stuff. Just my oppinion.

Offline Pandora

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2016, 01:56:07 PM »
The Master Sets I think are being sold to wealthy bank customers for prestige, who are not necessarily panda coin collectors. I doubt we will see these coins again in market for years. That means, the available market supply has gone down considerable, leaving very little for collectors/investors out there. Particularly true for 1/2 oz-es. In addition, new master-sets are being built and dealers are building inventory of key/semi-key coins in anticipation. That leaves even less for collectors.

Offline r3globe

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2016, 02:09:12 PM »
I cant believe there is such demand for explaining 25k$ for a single coin. How many masterset collectors are out there? 10-20? They already have their coins so the demand now is investordriven hopeing that even more mastercollectors are out there or start collecting. But new collcetors will go for the new metric system and would not care about the old stuff. Just my oppinion.

I believe the market is getting ahead of itself. The prices of gold and silver are fueling speculation. June is historically an inflection point for metals. Proceed with extreme caution. Markets like to trap the majority to move to the opposite direction.

Offline Obsidian

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2016, 02:48:59 PM »
I personally have more confidence in the market now than I have over the last 4 years when prices were depressed.  The increase in prices is based on a tightening of supply.  I view that as a good thing for the longer term stability of pricing.  That doesn't mean that current pricing won't come down some in certain areas and increase in others.  Just like any market like this, there will be ups and downs.  My confidence is simply based on supply being very tight.  I am sure this tightening of supply has a lot to do with the master set builders and investors.  I don't have a problem with that.  If some investors / collectors are selling and taking profits and other investors or collectors are buying at the new higher prices then there is stability in the market.

Much of my experience is with US coins.  I am constantly amazed at the millions and millions of dollars that are exchanged each month in US coins via eBay, auctions, and dealer to dealer.  Much of the action is dealer / investor to dealer / investor on the higher priced coins.  The average new collector doesn't have the funds to purchase most of the higher end coins.  This is very similar to what is happening with some of the higher priced gold pandas.  Some of the collectors / dealers / investors that purchased these coins years ago are selling them at the new higher prices.  The fact that there are people to buy them at these new, higher prices should give us all confidence in the market in my opinion.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #7 on: June 21, 2016, 03:09:59 PM »
Another explanation for the possible tight supply situation is that astute collectors/investors are hanging unto their coins expecting the market to go higher.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline Mak007

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2016, 03:20:32 PM »
Ditto Obsidian

Offline paul4444

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #9 on: June 21, 2016, 03:41:58 PM »
Obsidian I also agree. I think many American coin collectors are collecting Chinese coins today due to the low mint numbers in comparison to US coins.  Thousands to millions

Offline purpuratum

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #10 on: June 21, 2016, 04:58:25 PM »
As a collector of ancient coins (beside my beloved Chinese Pandas) I'm pretty sure that this uptrend will continue. The older, the rarer, the better.
I believe that the metric system and the mintage in x-thousands to millions might put off new collectors and lead them to the older issues as they are 'more under control'
considering their low mintage numbers and a very little fan-club who bought those coins in the years of issue.

Why am I collecting Chinese Panda coins? That's easy..:-)
At the beginning I wanted to buy one ounce of gold from each country of the world.  
Then I came across China and discovered that they change the appearance/image of the pandas every year (btw: BIG disappointment in 2002 :-) )
And not only that... China has even different denominations!! WOW..!! so I sold all my ounces from all the other countries except China and started with my little Panda collection.

At that time it was very easy in Switzerland to buy Pandas from banks or from local coin dealers. Nowadays I go to the banks and ask for Gold Panda coins and
they tell me, oh we are so sorry, there was just another customer here and bought all Chinese Gold coins.... Well.... supply has dried up.  I'm fighting here to find the
coins I want at a reasonable price.

This all leads me to think that this up-trend is still intact!
Just my 5 cents  N48

Offline purpuratum

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #11 on: June 21, 2016, 05:53:07 PM »
oops.. stupid Swiss mistake: just my two cents !!  :blushing:

Offline paul4444

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #12 on: June 21, 2016, 06:15:27 PM »
I love it. My grandfather collected American coins. When grading companies started prices of US coins blew the roof off old prices.  Now that I'm in my 40's I realize there are so many US coins out there.  Panda populations are minuscule in comparison.  So for me I love the hunt of tracking down high grade pandas.  My passion is hunting for those rare beautiful shiny pandas. 

Offline silberschatzimsee

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #13 on: June 21, 2016, 06:21:34 PM »
oops.. stupid Swiss mistake: just my two cents !!  :blushing:

You mean: Just my 2 Rappen ;)

I personally have more confidence in the market now than I have over the last 4 years when prices were depressed.  The increase in prices is based on a tightening of supply.  I view that as a good thing for the longer term stability of pricing.  That doesn't mean that current pricing won't come down some in certain areas and increase in others.  Just like any market like this, there will be ups and downs.  My confidence is simply based on supply being very tight.  I am sure this tightening of supply has a lot to do with the master set builders and investors.  I don't have a problem with that.  If some investors / collectors are selling and taking profits and other investors or collectors are buying at the new higher prices then there is stability in the market.

Much of my experience is with US coins.  I am constantly amazed at the millions and millions of dollars that are exchanged each month in US coins via eBay, auctions, and dealer to dealer.  Much of the action is dealer / investor to dealer / investor on the higher priced coins.  The average new collector doesn't have the funds to purchase most of the higher end coins.  This is very similar to what is happening with some of the higher priced gold pandas.  Some of the collectors / dealers / investors that purchased these coins years ago are selling them at the new higher prices.  The fact that there are people to buy them at these new, higher prices should give us all confidence in the market in my opinion.

I do not believe in it. I still think its not the collectors who are buying at the moment but the "investmentsharks". Higher prices attract more of that kind of persons and its an endless price spiral until the big bang occurs.
Yeah of course i am also happy that my old pandas go up in price, even though its only for the books, but i do not thrust this whole thing. The increasement went just to fast.

@paul4444
Yeah i also admit that i am speculating a bit by buying the new pandas. I think even 600000 mintage number is not a big figure with so many potential buyers from china.


Offline Mak007

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #14 on: June 21, 2016, 11:08:34 PM »
I believe the 1/4 ounce pandas are the next too go up!

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #15 on: June 21, 2016, 11:45:51 PM »
I cant believe there is such demand for explaining 25k$ for a single coin. How many masterset collectors are out there? 10-20? They already have their coins so the demand now is investordriven hopeing that even more mastercollectors are out there or start collecting. But new collcetors will go for the new metric system and would not care about the old stuff. Just my oppinion.

China has more billionaires than the U.S.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/15/investing/china-us-billionaires/

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #16 on: June 22, 2016, 02:08:08 AM »
How many panda coin collectors are there in the US, EU , China? Has anybody got a rough guess?
Let's say collectors who have panda coins worth more than 5000 $, to make it easier.
This Forum counts 2062 members...

The prices that people are curretnly paying for some coins (Gold 1/2 oz 1994-1998), indicate a pretty high(and increasing) demand i guess...?

Would be happy to get some info, thanks  N30



How many panda coin collectors in the USA? How about some estimates?

If two collectors per State x 50 = 100 collectors minimum.

But we know at least 10 serious collectors/sellers from just California alone. When you screen eBay sellers you find more from other states. Add that to some forum members here and elsewhere. So let's upgrade to 10 x 50  States = 500 at least.

I believe the figure is higher than this.

How many serious collectors out of this 500 or whatever is the more accurate figure? How about an estimate of 200?

Say about half are long term collectors who have acquired the important coins and are just watching the action now; probably not selling or selling a few coins here and there.

The other half are nouveau serious collectors who are scrabbling to get a few choice pieces before their valuation renders them completely out of reach.

I don't think we have 1000 eager aggressive serious collectors yet in the USA. One sign is how quickly and easy saturation point is reached when sellers start upping their prices rapidly or bringing many coins and medals all at once to market.

This is all conjecture and will benefit from further illumination.

KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline Birdman

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #17 on: June 22, 2016, 05:56:18 AM »
China has more billionaires than the U.S.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/15/investing/china-us-billionaires/

Wow, I did not realize there were so many billionaires in China.

I'm continually struck by how much money there is in China.  Just in driving around China the past week, I've seen a couple Rolls Royces, a McClaren, and countless BMWs and Mercedes, and I haven't even been to Shanghai yet.  Heck, there is even a Bentley dealership right next to my hotel right now in Chengdu!  A lot of people have made a lot of money over the past 10 or 15 years and they are looking for creative places to stash the wealth.  A master set would be a nice place to diversify.

Offline Herrmo93

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #18 on: June 22, 2016, 06:55:09 AM »
500 seems like a good number but yeah it is hard to tell...

When estimating the number of collectors in Germany , I think it is intresting to look at ebay auctions with shipping to Germany only :

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=172215973965&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565

There are 12 bidders total ,of which 7 are bidding more than 1400 euro (=1568$) for a half ounce coin. Meaning 12 German collectors/investors involved in this single auction... total number of collectors ? no idea ;) but i imagin it could exceed 80..

To tell if the coins are overpriced or not it is important to know if there are still many ungraded coins out there. Because Panda coins all were minted in recent years , I guess there are still a lot of ungraded coins.
But some coins are definitely overpriced when compared to others :

1/2 oz 1996 -> mintage 13.849 -> total graded 271 -> MS69 179 -> NGC price for MS69   4.000$
1/2 oz 1995 -> mintage 11.749 -> total graded 231 -> MS69 159 -> NGC price for MS69 27.500$

Now I don't see many OMPs of neither of these two coins. Do you?
I can not imaging a diffrence of 20 coins (12%) making a price diffrence of +587%.

For some coins it seems to me that people are paying prices that NGC is listing rather than NGC listing prices that people are paying....  :001_smile:
Correct me if I'm wrong , I'm still pretty new in this business.

Offline moosician

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #19 on: June 22, 2016, 07:26:27 AM »
Some interesting numbers to share. This is from a casual conversation with a Gold Panda dealer in Shanghai which i have built a fairly well relationship with over time. Everytime i try to buy something from him its always mostly not for sale or i have to make an offer he cant refuse or trade other gold pandas which always works  :blink:  He recounts selling hundreds of bu gold panda master sets in his profession and last year alone sold 30-40 sets. And this is just 1 dealer, but a big one.

Offline Nanjing and Lhasa

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #20 on: June 22, 2016, 01:23:00 PM »
Folks,
I'm new to this forum, but have been collecting Pandas (Au-Sweat of the Sun & Ag-Tears of the Moon, more so Ag as I'm just an ordinary nobody trying to live with champagne taste on a beer budget) since first arriving in China in Feb 2005. All my years here have been in Nanjing, a 2nd tier city of now around 7-8 million about 150-200 miles from Shanghai. I also lived for two years, 2009-2011, in Tibet, Lhasa during my 2nd time there, my first time there was in 2006. I've ridden the railroad route across China, Nanjing-Lhasa 7 times. During a circumambulation of Mt. Kailash I got up to roughly 18,500 ft. on the Kailash backside Drolma Pass; (highest I've ever been not counting perhaps a few Grateful Dead concerts back in the '70s but we're not goin' there, memory is a bit fuzzy.)  I'm American, over 50.

During my early years here I was getting great stuff for Very cheap prices, far below Western market values at the time, an advantage of a 2nd tier city vs. a 1st tier (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hong Kong)
In recent years though prices have begun to rise, and interested Chinese with money have increased. Over the years I would get this and that, what I can when I can, things of interest and/or things that seem to be a particularly good deal at the time.
Ag table attached......
Except for the PCGS stuff, everything else I've gotten locally, either Nanjing or Lhasa.

In 2011 when Xi Jinping went to Lhasa for their really big 2-day observance of the 60th (60 is an especially auspicious number in both Chinese and Tibetan cultures) Anniversary of the
'Peaceful Liberation' (ahem) of Tibet, I was invited as a VIP guest to attend all the events, (dinner and Broadway style stage show the first evening with Xi Jinping and big delegation of Beijing Party Commies and big parade the next day in front of the Potala Palace also with Xi).
I was literally the ONLY American in attendance, among the many photos (and little bit of video), I've got some of Xi only some 20-30 feet away from my seat immediately next to the hot shot delegation, I was closer even than a group of top military generals, etc.
(In 1995 I personally met HH The Dalai Lama in Atlanta when I lived there, though this of course most certainly did NOT have any bearing on my having been invited for those who may not be especially astute about China/Tibet politics)
You won't find any of my photos/stories about this on the internet as I'm a somewhat private person, though I do have them and some various other mementos from this relatively/somewhat historically significant event.

So naturally I had to also get any and all associated Au & Ag with the event that I could get my hands on, which I did. The commemorative Au/Ag set is one of 2000 from the total number of sets that has special packaging that was blessed by the current Beijing gov't approved, bogus Panchen Lama; nonetheless it's a really nice set.

Anyway, collectors are increasing among increasingly savvy Chinese with money and relatively few places to put it.

Offline dynamike51

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #21 on: June 22, 2016, 02:32:50 PM »
Hi Nanjing and Lhasa,

Welcome  N40   Thanks for sharing your experience. Cheers  N47

Offline Pandaguy

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #22 on: June 22, 2016, 03:23:52 PM »
China has more billionaires than the U.S.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/15/investing/china-us-billionaires/

They are mostly long-time Communist hacks who garnerd their wealth form political and business bribes. From this "undeserved" wealth accumulation, they achieve the means of acquiring businesses that further their wealth position. Furthermore, the vast majority of Chinese billionaires get wealthier BECAUSE of the U.S. and AMERICAN products and services. Not many U.S. billionaires achieved their wealth because of China. Shall we talk about unfair trade practices?  Naw, this is a coin forum!!!

Offline Herrmo93

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #23 on: June 22, 2016, 04:19:46 PM »
Some interesting numbers to share. This is from a casual conversation with a Gold Panda dealer in Shanghai which i have built a fairly well relationship with over time. Everytime i try to buy something from him its always mostly not for sale or i have to make an offer he cant refuse or trade other gold pandas which always works  :blink:  He recounts selling hundreds of bu gold panda master sets in his profession and last year alone sold 30-40 sets. And this is just 1 dealer, but a big one.

What do you mean buy master set? A five coin set ?

Offline moosician

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #24 on: June 22, 2016, 08:45:27 PM »
What do you mean buy master set? A five coin set ?

A b.u. gold panda master set is made up of all yearly 5~coin sets (1982~4coin) from 1982~now.

Offline Herrmo93

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #25 on: June 23, 2016, 03:47:40 AM »

A b.u. gold panda master set is made up of all yearly 5~coin sets (1982~4coin) from 1982~now.


oh that's a lot   :blink:

Offline Tao-Panda

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #26 on: June 23, 2016, 04:24:11 AM »
I'm just an ordinary nobody trying to live with champagne taste on a beer budget

Welcome !


Offline Nanjing and Lhasa

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Re: Number of panda coin collectors
« Reply #27 on: June 23, 2016, 08:46:20 AM »
DynaMike51 & Tao-Panda,
Thanks very much! Gan Bei! Bottoms up! :biggrin: Today was a nice warm 92 degrees here in Nanjing with probably nearly matching humidity, ugh! Just like back home....
Days like this I miss the nice desert dry 12,000 ft. elevation (the bottom land down by the river! where everything else was uphill from there!) of Lhasa.

Finally gotten around to getting some photos, here's (sans location metadata) four '96 silver 1 oz proofs, 2 in adjoining pouches with consecutively numbered COAs, & two '95 micro date 3 leaves in adjoining pouches......and a couple other items, nice weighty 2 oz beautiful design Yungang grotto(have COAs & all packaging)