Author Topic: Gold Panda recent prices  (Read 10946 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1774
  • Karma: 56
  • Gender: Male
Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #15 on: June 02, 2016, 10:56:40 PM »
In the short term, I can't say what exactly will happen but I think in the long run collectors and investors alike will be unable to collect full date sets of all sizes and years..  Just like in the US gold coin market very few collectors have the means to collect all years of $21/2, $5, $10, $20 eagles let alone the Liberty head and other types of older gold coins with very low populations.  Most collectors try to complete a certain size or even just certain years, etc.

Assuming nothing drastic changes to negatively affect things, I believe collectors will start to specialize into 1/20th, 1/10th, 1/4s, etc.  Maybe the banks will even start doing programs for a particular size rather than a whole set.

Affordability will demand this happens.  At that point you will likely see increases in values of smaller sizes.

How quickly this will happen and how dramatically, I certainly don't know.

Good to hear this opinion; +1. I had similar thoughts some time ago: http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=12538.msg74144#msg74144

Furthermore, I believe it is those top tier (ultra) key coins that will price out a lot of potential full coin set collectors from the market.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline mazinger7000

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+6)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 197
  • Karma: 14
Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #16 on: June 02, 2016, 11:40:12 PM »
For 1/10s, seems 94 and 95 have run up fast, could this be due to 94 and 95 1/4s and 1/2s run up? year set demand? if so, based on this logic, would 93,96,97,00,03  be next rising? they seem to be in supply and not too expensive (yet?) though.

just for the sake of accuracy here, many coins are not worth more than they were 3 years ago. i have my records from the june long beach show in 2013, and i paid $1,000 for a 1994 LD quarter ounce gold panda. pretty sure that's still about what it's worth. paid $550 for a 1992. don't think that's worth any more today either. some time before that i paid $940 for a 1995 tenth. maybe worth a bit more today. yes, halves have gone crazy these last several months. but i think there's some extra hype now on the quarters and tenths without maybe all the numbers. not saying some are not headed upwards, but several are worth about the same as 3 years ago.

Offline moosician

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 303
  • Karma: 12
Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #17 on: June 03, 2016, 12:11:12 AM »
just for the sake of accuracy here, many coins are not worth more than they were 3 years ago. i have my records from the june long beach show in 2013, and i paid $1,000 for a 1994 LD quarter ounce gold panda. pretty sure that's still about what it's worth. paid $550 for a 1992. don't think that's worth any more today either. some time before that i paid $940 for a 1995 tenth. maybe worth a bit more today. yes, halves have gone crazy these last several months. but i think there's some extra hype now on the quarters and tenths without maybe all the numbers. not saying some are not headed upwards, but several are worth about the same as 3 years ago.

Thanks for your input. Im basing the assumptions on a few coins i bought earlier, mostly in the past 3 years till as recent as last week. There is a significant rise from my records and observations, especially the 94,95 1/10s and semi key 1/4s.

Offline moosician

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 303
  • Karma: 12
Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #18 on: June 03, 2016, 12:24:37 AM »
In the short term, I can't say what exactly will happen but I think in the long run collectors and investors alike will be unable to collect full date sets of all sizes and years..  Just like in the US gold coin market very few collectors have the means to collect all years of $21/2, $5, $10, $20 eagles let alone the Liberty head and other types of older gold coins with very low populations.  Most collectors try to complete a certain size or even just certain years, etc.

Assuming nothing drastic changes to negatively affect things, I believe collectors will start to specialize into 1/20th, 1/10th, 1/4s, etc.  Maybe the banks will even start doing programs for a particular size rather than a whole set.

Affordability will demand this happens.  At that point you will likely see increases in values of smaller sizes.

How quickly this will happen and how dramatically, I certainly don't know.

 :thumbup1:

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 921
  • Karma: 202
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #19 on: June 03, 2016, 12:53:31 AM »
"What's the next 95 1/4?"

If i would have to decide...  N33




I think you have stumbled the concept of sleeper coin.  While you are trying to compare different 1/4 which is the first step, there are other ways to compare, rarity within a set.
  
                                              Price 1/1/2016      Price 6/1/2016
2006 1/2   NGC pop 150                 $1200                 $1700
2006 1/4   NGC pop 120                 $600                   $1400
2006 1/10 NGC pop 220                 $1100                 $1400

On 1/1/2016 it was obvious that 1/10 was overvalued compared to 1/2 and 1/4 based solely on NGC pop reports, the only question was how many years will it take others to figure it out.  5 months later the 2006 1/4 finally woke up and its rarity started catching the eye of investors, collectors and dealers.  The 2006 1/4 was the perfect sleeper coin that woke up in the last 2 months.  In next awaking 1/2 and 1/4 will need to continue to appreciate at a faster rate than 1/10.  

Offline Obsidian

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+7)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 587
  • Karma: 32
Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #20 on: June 03, 2016, 01:36:17 AM »
I don't necessarily believe that the 2006 1/10 is "overvalued".  It comes down to relative rarity amongst 1/10th oz pandas.  I believe the reason that 2002 and 2006 1/10th pandas trade at premiums to other 1/10 panda is because relative to other years of 1/10th oz pandas their mintages are low.  That doesn't mean relative to other sizes they are especially rare. That is why comparing pop reports between sizes doesn't tell the whole story of price.  To the person collecting 1/10 oz pandas some of the keys or semi-keys are different than the person collecting 1/4s or 1/2s.  That is why the market is paying more, and should pay more for those years.

Now take the 2006 1/4 oz relative to other years for 1/4 there are a number of years with substantially lower mintages.  This suppresses the price relative to these other years.  

Now whether these mintages translate into the coins actual rarity, I can't say for sure.  There are obviously other factors at play.

Hopefully my rambling post made some sense.  It's late!

Offline wittu

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 92
  • Karma: 20
Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #21 on: June 03, 2016, 03:38:22 AM »
Hi Arif,

thank you for your comment!  N48
Always VERY appreciated.

I don´t know, if "stumbled" is the right word...but o.k.
I learn a lot of you, since you have a very clear structure.

I always watch the markets, compare Zhao  with US and European market and so on. That way i sometimes get a feeling, where a coin is underpriced and which sizes (Pandas) don´t show up often and are very hard to find.
The chinese market has a pretty heavy weight in my decision... not always just the price, but "hard to find" and so on.
That way i always compare and compare and compare and finally get a feeling (without making myself notes  :( )

The picture you see (1/10 and 1/4) is the result of about 5 years searching for 2006- always finding single coins, because i realized, that they showed up way less than many expected and price reflected. If i would have found more for good prices, i would own more today. My last buy 1/4 is 2 years ago and my last 1/10 3 years ago.

This way i collected my pandas- of course in combination with numbers of real mintages... (P.A. book and so on).   

You might call it stumbeling...i call it "have an eye on and searching for".  :001_rolleyes: The prices always were before big rising prices.
Of course your research is much more effectic and much better- professional!!!  That´s why i always listen to you so carefully.
I am just a collector, having fun and being satisfied with a couple right decisions...

wittu  N48

Offline wg

  • Trade Count: (+1)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 831
  • Karma: 66
Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #22 on: June 03, 2016, 05:21:04 AM »

wittu

1.april 2016

I  stumbled ...   :blink: at the ground of the safe i find some little pandas.
 N48
have a nice day


Offline wittu

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 92
  • Karma: 20
Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #23 on: June 03, 2016, 05:31:00 AM »
@wg

you always have better pictures, don´t you?   N2  N31
01. April 2016...  :001_tt2:

@ Arif
and as i told you before:
I have to start to compare the Pop within NGC , too. I never did until now (THANK YOU)
Your way of describing it, makes it very clear.
 N39

wittu  N48

Offline Patschero

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 5
  • Karma: 0
Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #24 on: June 03, 2016, 08:30:25 AM »
@wg

The new favourite hobby: digging in the safe  :laugh:

What do you think, are this good prices for 1/4 gold pandas OMP to buy now:

1994 800 $

1996 1000 $

1997 800 $

Have a nice day

Patschero  N38

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 921
  • Karma: 202
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #25 on: June 03, 2016, 09:28:52 AM »
Wittu - I use the word stumble in a positive humble manner to become first aware of a coins potential.  Then after careful study as you have done, stumble turns to conviction and you buy in aggressively.  I stumble onto sleeper coins all the time even after doing this for 8 years.  My first stumble was into 1998 ld followed by 1999 serif, back in early 2008 nobody cared about varieties, even NGC would not designate sd and ld, but as I noticed what was coming in, 98 ld and 99 serif for all sizes were harder to get relative to other varieties from those years.  So I started paying premium for those sleeper varieties to accelerate my accumulation and make others aware of varieties. 

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 921
  • Karma: 202
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #26 on: June 03, 2016, 09:50:17 AM »
I don't necessarily believe that the 2006 1/10 is "overvalued".  It comes down to relative rarity amongst 1/10th oz pandas.  I believe the reason that 2002 and 2006 1/10th pandas trade at premiums to other 1/10 panda is because relative to other years of 1/10th oz pandas their mintages are low.  That doesn't mean relative to other sizes they are especially rare. That is why comparing pop reports between sizes doesn't tell the whole story of price.  To the person collecting 1/10 oz pandas some of the keys or semi-keys are different than the person collecting 1/4s or 1/2s.  That is why the market is paying more, and should pay more for those years.

Now take the 2006 1/4 oz relative to other years for 1/4 there are a number of years with substantially lower mintages.  This suppresses the price relative to these other years.  

Now whether these mintages translate into the coins actual rarity, I can't say for sure.  There are obviously other factors at play.

Hopefully my rambling post made some sense.  It's late!

I use the word overvalued in a relative sense against 2 particular coins 2006 1/4 and 1/2, and to compare how that coin appreciation in the future will compare with those two particular coins.  

For the 1/10 series 2006 may be undervalued and may appreciate faster than other 1/10.  But looking at it against 2006 1/4 and 1/2, it has a strike against it in my notes. By doing non obvious comparisons (everyone likes to buy the key coins of a series, but finding key coins of a yearly set, denomination set, of a grade, etc) I find more sleeper coins because fewer people are looking at it from that perspective.  Despite these comments I rarely pass on the opportunity to buy 2006 1/10, because there is always strong demand for it.

Offline wittu

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 92
  • Karma: 20
Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #27 on: June 03, 2016, 11:19:30 AM »
@ Arif

 N39

Greetings from Germany,
wittu  N48

Offline wg

  • Trade Count: (+1)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 831
  • Karma: 66
Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #28 on: June 03, 2016, 12:40:13 PM »
@wg

The new favourite hobby: digging in the safe  :laugh:

What do you think, are this good prices for 1/4 gold pandas OMP to buy now:

1994 800 $

1996 1000 $

1997 800 $

Have a nice day

Patschero  N38

arif knows better then me. ;)
for me everything is to expensiv :(
my buying price was between 200 and 280 euro each 1/4 oz
only 2000 mirror was 1000 euro ...




Offline KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1774
  • Karma: 56
  • Gender: Male
Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #29 on: June 03, 2016, 01:46:13 PM »
arif knows better then me. ;)
for me everything is to expensiv :(
my buying price was between 200 and 280 euro each 1/4 oz
only 2000 mirror was 1000 euro ...





Nice stack!  :blink:
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!