Author Topic: Gold Panda recent prices  (Read 10948 times)

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Offline moosician

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Gold Panda recent prices
« on: June 02, 2016, 03:43:57 AM »
1/2s took off a few months back this year, now we are seeing a sudden price surge of 1/4s.

My immediate response would be thinking are the rises long due and seen as 'healthy'? Is it sustainable and seen as will continue in the uptrend?
2ndly, will 1/10s and 1/20s follow suit?

Ive read the term 'high tide lifts all boats' and understand the rises are mostly due to master and yearly panda sets demand.
But seeing the 1/4s are much expensive now, im torn between collecting 1/4s or 1/10s.

Yes, im refering to key/ semi key dates 1/4s and 1/10s.

Appreciate your thoughts.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2016, 06:28:53 AM »
One has to acknowledge that there is some degree of speculation here and not all strategies will work out successfully in future.

But once these coins are minted no additional coins of the same years will be minted again. Then comes attrition of numbers; the coin population keeps on falling and fewer of these coins will be publicly available in the coming years. And the population of collectors is expected to continue increasing.

Therefore investing in key/semi key 1/10oz and 1/4oz coins is likely to yield some returns in future but by how much is not clear. However the key coins are already quite expensive.

I don't think it matters which fractional coin series you buy as long as you buy when the coin is undervalued/undiscovered.
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Offline xiaohei99

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #2 on: June 02, 2016, 08:55:57 AM »
1/2s took off a few months back this year, now we are seeing a sudden price surge of 1/4s.

My immediate response would be thinking are the rises long due and seen as 'healthy'? Is it sustainable and seen as will continue in the uptrend?
2ndly, will 1/10s and 1/20s follow suit?

Ive read the term 'high tide lifts all boats' and understand the rises are mostly due to master and yearly panda sets demand.
But seeing the 1/4s are much expensive now, im torn between collecting 1/4s or 1/10s.

Yes, im refering to key/ semi key dates 1/4s and 1/10s.

Appreciate your thoughts.

94, 96, 97, 02, 03, 06 1/4oz are all exploding in prices, some of which already surpass price of some common 1/2oz.

What's the next 95 1/4?

Offline wittu

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2016, 09:49:47 AM »
"94, 96, 97, 02, 03, 06 1/4oz are all exploding in prices, some of which already surpass price of some common 1/2oz.

What's the next 95 1/4?"

If i would have to decide...  N33



 :lol:

wittu  N48

Offline moosician

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #4 on: June 02, 2016, 11:11:13 AM »
One has to acknowledge that there is some degree of speculation here and not all strategies will work out successfully in future.

But once these coins are minted no additional coins of the same years will be minted again. Then comes attrition of numbers; the coin population keeps on falling and fewer of these coins will be publicly available in the coming years. And the population of collectors is expected to continue increasing.

Therefore investing in key/semi key 1/10oz and 1/4oz coins is likely to yield some returns in future but by how much is not clear. However the key coins are already quite expensive.

I don't think it matters which fractional coin series you buy as long as you buy when the coin is undervalued/undiscovered.

Thanks!  :thumbup1:




"94, 96, 97, 02, 03, 06 1/4oz are all exploding in prices, some of which already surpass price of some common 1/2oz.

What's the next 95 1/4?"

If i would have to decide...  N33



 :lol:

wittu  N48

 :drool: Sell/trade me one!

Offline Seng_84

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #5 on: June 02, 2016, 11:19:34 AM »
How much would a 02 1/4 be?

Offline wittu

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2016, 12:11:31 PM »
@moosician

this is, why i don´t sell yet.
This is, why i collected pandas, too.

It is my understanding that all coins issued by China Mint since 2003 were made according to the planned mintage, except pandas, which have not been popular among collectors inside China, until recently.
 
Very nice, to read this from you! N48 Gives me even more courage.

It just started... VERY fast though...

I wouldn´t sell any size right now. Nobody knows: if master sets are successfull, why not "smaller ones", like for example:



This is part of the China Story... i was/ we were always hoping, that chinese collectors may start to get interested, weren´t we?

Let`s see, how much potential our Pandas still have. IT IS a thankfull collection area, which is fun and pretty easy to overview (but hard to complete  :blink:)

Greetings,
wittu  N48

Offline silverpv

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2016, 02:16:17 PM »
@moosician

this is, why i don´t sell yet.
This is, why i collected pandas, too.
 
Very nice, to read this from you! N48 Gives me even more courage.

It just started... VERY fast though...

I wouldn´t sell any size right now. Nobody knows: if master sets are successfull, why not "smaller ones", like for example:



This is part of the China Story... i was/ we were always hoping, that chinese collectors may start to get interested, weren´t we?

Let`s see, how much potential our Pandas still have. IT IS a thankfull collection area, which is fun and pretty easy to overview (but hard to complete  :blink:)

Greetings,
wittu  N48

Are you based in china?

I'm also a collector of 1/10 and 1/4's but had to stop witht he 1/4's because they are creeping up in price. I'm not really buying or selling at the moment, its kinda frustrating!

The good thing is the portfolio is up... I really do hope the increase hits the 1/10ths with the type of demand for the 1/2's but realistically, there are many more 1/10ths than any other. The 1/4 is nice, but is already moving up. I'm also curious if China catches on and starts to build sets of 1/4's. Then of course, would it make sense if paying 4 digits for 1/4's, does it make sense to go for the full ounce 1oz...

Offline wittu

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2016, 02:21:50 PM »
Hi,

no... i live in Germany.

The most important thing for me... is:

In China, collectors seem to begin to get interested in pandas.

The most important point --> from now on the "China Story" can begin or go further...  N38
I am not able to predict what sizes and so on... but i don´t care too much about that question. If enough new collectors come to the market, all sizes will profit.
But of Course i hope the 1/10th come next...  :w00t:

I am not doing anything right now either. There is nothing affordable coming up to the market anyways and i didn´t get used to new Prices yet... I am just watching and enjoying. It is nice, to see rising prices after some harder years, isn´t it?

And like Arif said: if it is hard, to get the sold coins back...he rather takes them out.
The same for me as a collector. I want to keep them for now, and in this market, i wouldn´t get them back easily...

wittu  N48

Offline silverpv

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #9 on: June 02, 2016, 02:31:02 PM »
Hi,

no... i live in Germany.

The most important thing for me... is:

In China, collectors seem to begin to get interested in pandas.

THAT`s the most important point --> from now on the "China Story" can begin or go further...  N38

I am not doing anything right now either. There is nothing affordable coming up to the market and i didn´t get used to new prices... I am just watching and enyoing. It is nice, to see rising prices after some harder years, isn´t it?

wittu  N48


I just started collecting Pandas in November 2015 so prices have only been going up for me.   N25  . I don't know how the prices compare to the past, I did buy up as much as I could afford without getting into trouble. I'm glad I made the move to 1/4's when I did, but only have a small collection. 2002-2007

Offline Wafdawg

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2016, 04:17:53 PM »
My speculation is that coins that have run up will consolidate gains establishing new floors while others which haven't moved up yet will begin to catch up in price. 

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2016, 08:39:22 PM »
How much would a 02 1/4 be?

There is currently no such coin for sale I can see on eBay USA. However, a 2002 MS69 1/4oz gold panda coin sold on eBay (#291701792332) for $1250 in March 2016.
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Offline moosician

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #12 on: June 02, 2016, 09:19:34 PM »
For 1/10s, seems 94 and 95 have run up fast, could this be due to 94 and 95 1/4s and 1/2s run up? year set demand? if so, based on this logic, would 93,96,97,00,03  be next rising? they seem to be in supply and not too expensive (yet?) though.

Offline Obsidian

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2016, 10:17:48 PM »
In the short term, I can't say what exactly will happen but I think in the long run collectors and investors alike will be unable to collect full date sets of all sizes and years..  Just like in the US gold coin market very few collectors have the means to collect all years of $21/2, $5, $10, $20 eagles let alone the Liberty head and other types of older gold coins with very low populations.  Most collectors try to complete a certain size or even just certain years, etc.

Assuming nothing drastic changes to negatively affect things, I believe collectors will start to specialize into 1/20th, 1/10th, 1/4s, etc.  Maybe the banks will even start doing programs for a particular size rather than a whole set.

Affordability will demand this happens.  At that point you will likely see increases in values of smaller sizes.

How quickly this will happen and how dramatically, I certainly don't know.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2016, 10:29:37 PM »
Article from Coin World (June 1st issue)

WHAT MAKES THE 1995 PANDA HALF-OUNCE GOLD BULLION COIN SO VALUABLE?

https://www.coinworld.com/news/precious-metals/2016/06/what-makes-the-1995-half-ounce-gold-panda-so-valuable.html

IMO, when coin magazine writes a special article about the valuation of a special coin, it suggests the peak price has reached for that coin in the current circle.


Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #15 on: June 02, 2016, 10:56:40 PM »
In the short term, I can't say what exactly will happen but I think in the long run collectors and investors alike will be unable to collect full date sets of all sizes and years..  Just like in the US gold coin market very few collectors have the means to collect all years of $21/2, $5, $10, $20 eagles let alone the Liberty head and other types of older gold coins with very low populations.  Most collectors try to complete a certain size or even just certain years, etc.

Assuming nothing drastic changes to negatively affect things, I believe collectors will start to specialize into 1/20th, 1/10th, 1/4s, etc.  Maybe the banks will even start doing programs for a particular size rather than a whole set.

Affordability will demand this happens.  At that point you will likely see increases in values of smaller sizes.

How quickly this will happen and how dramatically, I certainly don't know.

Good to hear this opinion; +1. I had similar thoughts some time ago: http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=12538.msg74144#msg74144

Furthermore, I believe it is those top tier (ultra) key coins that will price out a lot of potential full coin set collectors from the market.
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Offline mazinger7000

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #16 on: June 02, 2016, 11:40:12 PM »
For 1/10s, seems 94 and 95 have run up fast, could this be due to 94 and 95 1/4s and 1/2s run up? year set demand? if so, based on this logic, would 93,96,97,00,03  be next rising? they seem to be in supply and not too expensive (yet?) though.

just for the sake of accuracy here, many coins are not worth more than they were 3 years ago. i have my records from the june long beach show in 2013, and i paid $1,000 for a 1994 LD quarter ounce gold panda. pretty sure that's still about what it's worth. paid $550 for a 1992. don't think that's worth any more today either. some time before that i paid $940 for a 1995 tenth. maybe worth a bit more today. yes, halves have gone crazy these last several months. but i think there's some extra hype now on the quarters and tenths without maybe all the numbers. not saying some are not headed upwards, but several are worth about the same as 3 years ago.

Offline moosician

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #17 on: June 03, 2016, 12:11:12 AM »
just for the sake of accuracy here, many coins are not worth more than they were 3 years ago. i have my records from the june long beach show in 2013, and i paid $1,000 for a 1994 LD quarter ounce gold panda. pretty sure that's still about what it's worth. paid $550 for a 1992. don't think that's worth any more today either. some time before that i paid $940 for a 1995 tenth. maybe worth a bit more today. yes, halves have gone crazy these last several months. but i think there's some extra hype now on the quarters and tenths without maybe all the numbers. not saying some are not headed upwards, but several are worth about the same as 3 years ago.

Thanks for your input. Im basing the assumptions on a few coins i bought earlier, mostly in the past 3 years till as recent as last week. There is a significant rise from my records and observations, especially the 94,95 1/10s and semi key 1/4s.

Offline moosician

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #18 on: June 03, 2016, 12:24:37 AM »
In the short term, I can't say what exactly will happen but I think in the long run collectors and investors alike will be unable to collect full date sets of all sizes and years..  Just like in the US gold coin market very few collectors have the means to collect all years of $21/2, $5, $10, $20 eagles let alone the Liberty head and other types of older gold coins with very low populations.  Most collectors try to complete a certain size or even just certain years, etc.

Assuming nothing drastic changes to negatively affect things, I believe collectors will start to specialize into 1/20th, 1/10th, 1/4s, etc.  Maybe the banks will even start doing programs for a particular size rather than a whole set.

Affordability will demand this happens.  At that point you will likely see increases in values of smaller sizes.

How quickly this will happen and how dramatically, I certainly don't know.

 :thumbup1:

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #19 on: June 03, 2016, 12:53:31 AM »
"What's the next 95 1/4?"

If i would have to decide...  N33




I think you have stumbled the concept of sleeper coin.  While you are trying to compare different 1/4 which is the first step, there are other ways to compare, rarity within a set.
  
                                              Price 1/1/2016      Price 6/1/2016
2006 1/2   NGC pop 150                 $1200                 $1700
2006 1/4   NGC pop 120                 $600                   $1400
2006 1/10 NGC pop 220                 $1100                 $1400

On 1/1/2016 it was obvious that 1/10 was overvalued compared to 1/2 and 1/4 based solely on NGC pop reports, the only question was how many years will it take others to figure it out.  5 months later the 2006 1/4 finally woke up and its rarity started catching the eye of investors, collectors and dealers.  The 2006 1/4 was the perfect sleeper coin that woke up in the last 2 months.  In next awaking 1/2 and 1/4 will need to continue to appreciate at a faster rate than 1/10.  

Offline Obsidian

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #20 on: June 03, 2016, 01:36:17 AM »
I don't necessarily believe that the 2006 1/10 is "overvalued".  It comes down to relative rarity amongst 1/10th oz pandas.  I believe the reason that 2002 and 2006 1/10th pandas trade at premiums to other 1/10 panda is because relative to other years of 1/10th oz pandas their mintages are low.  That doesn't mean relative to other sizes they are especially rare. That is why comparing pop reports between sizes doesn't tell the whole story of price.  To the person collecting 1/10 oz pandas some of the keys or semi-keys are different than the person collecting 1/4s or 1/2s.  That is why the market is paying more, and should pay more for those years.

Now take the 2006 1/4 oz relative to other years for 1/4 there are a number of years with substantially lower mintages.  This suppresses the price relative to these other years.  

Now whether these mintages translate into the coins actual rarity, I can't say for sure.  There are obviously other factors at play.

Hopefully my rambling post made some sense.  It's late!

Offline wittu

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #21 on: June 03, 2016, 03:38:22 AM »
Hi Arif,

thank you for your comment!  N48
Always VERY appreciated.

I don´t know, if "stumbled" is the right word...but o.k.
I learn a lot of you, since you have a very clear structure.

I always watch the markets, compare Zhao  with US and European market and so on. That way i sometimes get a feeling, where a coin is underpriced and which sizes (Pandas) don´t show up often and are very hard to find.
The chinese market has a pretty heavy weight in my decision... not always just the price, but "hard to find" and so on.
That way i always compare and compare and compare and finally get a feeling (without making myself notes  :( )

The picture you see (1/10 and 1/4) is the result of about 5 years searching for 2006- always finding single coins, because i realized, that they showed up way less than many expected and price reflected. If i would have found more for good prices, i would own more today. My last buy 1/4 is 2 years ago and my last 1/10 3 years ago.

This way i collected my pandas- of course in combination with numbers of real mintages... (P.A. book and so on).   

You might call it stumbeling...i call it "have an eye on and searching for".  :001_rolleyes: The prices always were before big rising prices.
Of course your research is much more effectic and much better- professional!!!  That´s why i always listen to you so carefully.
I am just a collector, having fun and being satisfied with a couple right decisions...

wittu  N48

Offline wg

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #22 on: June 03, 2016, 05:21:04 AM »

wittu

1.april 2016

I  stumbled ...   :blink: at the ground of the safe i find some little pandas.
 N48
have a nice day


Offline wittu

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #23 on: June 03, 2016, 05:31:00 AM »
@wg

you always have better pictures, don´t you?   N2  N31
01. April 2016...  :001_tt2:

@ Arif
and as i told you before:
I have to start to compare the Pop within NGC , too. I never did until now (THANK YOU)
Your way of describing it, makes it very clear.
 N39

wittu  N48

Offline Patschero

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #24 on: June 03, 2016, 08:30:25 AM »
@wg

The new favourite hobby: digging in the safe  :laugh:

What do you think, are this good prices for 1/4 gold pandas OMP to buy now:

1994 800 $

1996 1000 $

1997 800 $

Have a nice day

Patschero  N38

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #25 on: June 03, 2016, 09:28:52 AM »
Wittu - I use the word stumble in a positive humble manner to become first aware of a coins potential.  Then after careful study as you have done, stumble turns to conviction and you buy in aggressively.  I stumble onto sleeper coins all the time even after doing this for 8 years.  My first stumble was into 1998 ld followed by 1999 serif, back in early 2008 nobody cared about varieties, even NGC would not designate sd and ld, but as I noticed what was coming in, 98 ld and 99 serif for all sizes were harder to get relative to other varieties from those years.  So I started paying premium for those sleeper varieties to accelerate my accumulation and make others aware of varieties. 

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #26 on: June 03, 2016, 09:50:17 AM »
I don't necessarily believe that the 2006 1/10 is "overvalued".  It comes down to relative rarity amongst 1/10th oz pandas.  I believe the reason that 2002 and 2006 1/10th pandas trade at premiums to other 1/10 panda is because relative to other years of 1/10th oz pandas their mintages are low.  That doesn't mean relative to other sizes they are especially rare. That is why comparing pop reports between sizes doesn't tell the whole story of price.  To the person collecting 1/10 oz pandas some of the keys or semi-keys are different than the person collecting 1/4s or 1/2s.  That is why the market is paying more, and should pay more for those years.

Now take the 2006 1/4 oz relative to other years for 1/4 there are a number of years with substantially lower mintages.  This suppresses the price relative to these other years.  

Now whether these mintages translate into the coins actual rarity, I can't say for sure.  There are obviously other factors at play.

Hopefully my rambling post made some sense.  It's late!

I use the word overvalued in a relative sense against 2 particular coins 2006 1/4 and 1/2, and to compare how that coin appreciation in the future will compare with those two particular coins.  

For the 1/10 series 2006 may be undervalued and may appreciate faster than other 1/10.  But looking at it against 2006 1/4 and 1/2, it has a strike against it in my notes. By doing non obvious comparisons (everyone likes to buy the key coins of a series, but finding key coins of a yearly set, denomination set, of a grade, etc) I find more sleeper coins because fewer people are looking at it from that perspective.  Despite these comments I rarely pass on the opportunity to buy 2006 1/10, because there is always strong demand for it.

Offline wittu

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #27 on: June 03, 2016, 11:19:30 AM »
@ Arif

 N39

Greetings from Germany,
wittu  N48

Offline wg

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #28 on: June 03, 2016, 12:40:13 PM »
@wg

The new favourite hobby: digging in the safe  :laugh:

What do you think, are this good prices for 1/4 gold pandas OMP to buy now:

1994 800 $

1996 1000 $

1997 800 $

Have a nice day

Patschero  N38

arif knows better then me. ;)
for me everything is to expensiv :(
my buying price was between 200 and 280 euro each 1/4 oz
only 2000 mirror was 1000 euro ...




Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #29 on: June 03, 2016, 01:46:13 PM »
arif knows better then me. ;)
for me everything is to expensiv :(
my buying price was between 200 and 280 euro each 1/4 oz
only 2000 mirror was 1000 euro ...





Nice stack!  :blink:
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Offline moosician

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #30 on: June 03, 2016, 02:13:18 PM »
Now that is why its so difficult to find them!

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #31 on: June 03, 2016, 09:56:18 PM »
NGC changed its census reporting format which make my data collection difficult, so I quit collecting it lately.  There is a 7 month gap in the data between the latest data point and the one before it.  Still, the chart maybe useful to show that 1/10oz population had a big jump in spring of 2014, possibly due to higher price?  The 1/2 population also jumped disproportionately, possibly due to the disproportional rise in price.

Offline banyantree

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #32 on: June 04, 2016, 12:11:48 AM »
@WG

your pictures are the wow of the day.

Offline wg

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #33 on: June 16, 2016, 08:43:10 AM »
Quote
buying price was between 200 and 280 euro each 1/4 oz

:closedeyes:

200 - 283 euro

Offline Wafdawg

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #34 on: June 16, 2016, 11:45:19 AM »
Are those prices real?  Also, that's a picture of a 1 oz 2006.

Offline wg

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #35 on: June 16, 2016, 02:38:00 PM »
yes real ..  jan. and feb. 2011 ;)
i bought some sheets 1/4 oz panda 06

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #36 on: June 16, 2016, 04:02:38 PM »
*2006, 2207, and 2011 gold pandas pictured above are 500 Yuan 1oz pieces.

Offline wittu

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #37 on: June 16, 2016, 04:57:19 PM »
This particular dealer always shows just an example Panda from the year... he doesn´t care about the right size on his pictures.

Greetings,
wittu  N48

Offline wg

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #38 on: June 17, 2016, 03:54:07 AM »
btw. 2011


Offline wg

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Re: Gold Panda recent prices
« Reply #39 on: June 17, 2016, 06:19:02 AM »
2011