Author Topic: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?  (Read 7512 times)

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Offline Pandora

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #15 on: May 06, 2016, 05:45:49 PM »
$23,500 for ms69, variety doesn't matter for this coin.  The ngc price guide is free, you should log in to your NGC account.

Thank you. Somehow I thought these prices came from Pricepedia. I will check out the NGC Guide.

Offline silverxsurfer

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #16 on: May 06, 2016, 06:09:04 PM »
$23,500 for ms69, variety doesn't matter for this coin.  The ngc price guide is free, you should log in to your NGC account.

Arif,

I'm curious, why do varieties for 1995 1/2 not matter?  Isn't the LD the rarer variety?  Even per the 2nd Panda Book?

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #17 on: May 06, 2016, 08:11:13 PM »
Arif,

I'm curious, why do varieties for 1995 1/2 not matter?  Isn't the LD the rarer variety?  Even per the 2nd Panda Book?


These are currently being bought for date sets. The buyers are oblivious to varieties.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #18 on: May 06, 2016, 08:13:02 PM »
Kudos to Peter for promptly updating the prices of the G1/2 in the new edition of Pricepedia he sent out today.  That helps to catch the price guide up to current market prices for most of these coins.  A quick scan through suggests that the big disparities have been addressed.  Thank you for so quickly responding to forum feedback N31 +1

I appreciated the input from everyone. Thank you.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

Offline silverxsurfer

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #19 on: May 06, 2016, 08:18:13 PM »
These are currently being bought for date sets. The buyers are oblivious to varieties.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

Thank you, Peter!  Much appreciated for the response.

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #20 on: May 06, 2016, 08:40:17 PM »
$23,500 for ms69, variety doesn't matter for this coin.  The ngc price guide is free, you should log in to your NGC account.

The NGC Price Guide and China Pricepedia track each other closely for obvious reasons. Prices for graded Panda, Lunar and IDOC (Inventions and Discovery) coins can be found on NGC. For anyone needing that information I highly recommend it, and please look at the many other resources that NGC provides. China Pricepedia adds Original Mint Packaging prices, set prices, prices around the world, condition notes, etc. It also has articles by me and Adam Biagi as well as guest contributors. Each month we provide an inside look at the coin world that can't be found anywhere else. For May, Part 1 is 54 pages. This month Part 2 of China Pricepedia is 76 pages of almost exclusively prices, prices, prices for many other modern Chinese coins and series. A few examples are Guan Yin, Olympics, Traditional Culture, Romance of Three Kingdoms, Yellow River Culture etc., etc, etc. Last but not least is the China Pricepedia MCM Index which follows the movement of the overall modern Chinese coin market – only in China Pricepedia.

Happy collecting.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #21 on: May 07, 2016, 12:25:06 AM »
Arif,
I'm curious, why do varieties for 1995 1/2 not matter?  Isn't the LD the rarer variety?  Even per the 2nd Panda Book?

First of all you have you to understand the personality of a price guide editors vs dealers.  

Price guide editors are reporters that report on prices they see in the public market place.  Next realize that the public market place accounts for 1-3% of all transactions and during periods of market spikes, closer to 1%.  So imagine if you were a price guide editor you are getting just 1% of the transaction information to update your price guide, clearly you can see price guides often will not reflect reality when markets are moving, but will do great when prices are flat for long periods of time.

Dealers on the other hand, are doing transactions everyday and are aware of bid/ask spreads for every coin, they have excellent pricing information at their finger tips, because they have to put out thousands to tens of thousands of dollars in checks every day as part of daily operation of their business.  So whenever someone quotes pricepedia price or NGC price guide or ebay transaction, I just inform them I don't look at any price guide to make my pricing decisions, because I have 20-50x more information available to me than price guide editors, sometimes my prices are 20% below price guides other times it is above by 30%, I just really don't know because I don't ever look at price guides unless some asks me why does the price guide have x going up or down.  

Now that you are aware of how price guides are made, next you have understand who are buyers in the transactions that are publicly recorded, are they dealers/investors or collectors.  Right now almost ALL the public transactions for gold panda and especially 1/2oz are dealer transactions and dealers don't care about varieties because they are buying to contribute to the effort to build master sets, so 1995 1/2 LD or SD doesn't really matter and price is the same.  Same goes for pricing of different grades, MS69, MS68 and OMP are all selling for the same price because it is dealers buying it. The fact that all varieties and grades are going for the same price is a big clue that collectors are not participating in the public record auctions.  When prices for varieties and high grades start spreading out, then we will have shifted from a dealer bid market to a collector bid market and you will know this is occurring because the price of 1995 1/2 LD will be selling for 10-40% higher than that of SD.

Right now I am very comfortable buying in this market as prices are starting to move up, because I know other dealers have put a floor on the market and my downside risk is very low.  When collectors come in and really take price up, then I will get worried and will lighten up on my holdings because their demand can disappear as quickly as it appears.

For two years I have been complaining how supply has dried up, but in the last two weeks I have accumulated months of supply, in the last 3 months over a year of supply compared to 2015 numbers.  Higher gold and higher prices for 1/2 is really brining the 1/2 out, today I bought 2x 1994 1/2 and 2003 1/2, I didn't even know the price guides had updated the prices when I bought based on my bids earlier in the week and luckily the people selling to me bought the coins for a fraction of their true value in coin shops. 

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #22 on: May 07, 2016, 02:19:55 AM »
Well, my friend Arif and I are at least in agreement that price guide writers and dealers have different perspectives and motives. There is room for both within the coin market. I have great esteem for Arif, as well as many other dealers who are my friends. They have a great deal of knowledge about the coins they handle, but are under no obligation to share that information in a way that might interfere with their business. Their job is to adjust and shade prices to make a profit. So, as Arif says, dealers may pay more or less than the going price for a coin as part of their normal business practices.

That is not, or should not be, the role of a price guide. China Pricepedia does not attempt to favor either buyers or sellers.  It is meant to provide a reasonable guide to market prices. Coins often sell for more or less between different stores, different cities and different countries. After reading this discussion on the Forum one dealer called me today to assert that there is no such thing as a “price” for a coin. There is only a range in which it should trade. He says people are always calling him to say his prices are too high or too low — for the same coin!

As for the rest, I am comfortable that China Pricepedia has access to a wide variety of sources, both public and private, to provide useful information to its readers. Prior to its first publication many collectors sold their coins for a small fraction of market value due to lack of knowledge about true coin prices. That is why when this discussion raised questions on a small, but important, segment of its coverage a new issue was released so soon.

Thanks again to everyone for raising some valid issues and provoking a very interesting discussion. Special thanks to Arif for all his efforts to educate and inform collectors of modern Chinese coins.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

Offline silverxsurfer

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #23 on: May 07, 2016, 02:47:13 PM »
Wow! Thank you, Arif, for the detailed explanation. This is very insightful and helpful.


First of all you have you to understand the personality of a price guide editors vs dealers. 

Price guide editors are reporters that report on prices they see in the public market place.  Next realize that the public market place accounts for 1-3% of all transactions and during periods of market spikes, closer to 1%.  So imagine if you were a price guide editor you are getting just 1% of the transaction information to update your price guide, clearly you can see price guides often will not reflect reality when markets are moving, but will do great when prices are flat for long periods of time.

Dealers on the other hand, are doing transactions everyday and are aware of bid/ask spreads for every coin, they have excellent pricing information at their finger tips, because they have to put out thousands to tens of thousands of dollars in checks every day as part of daily operation of their business.  So whenever someone quotes pricepedia price or NGC price guide or ebay transaction, I just inform them I don't look at any price guide to make my pricing decisions, because I have 20-50x more information available to me than price guide editors, sometimes my prices are 20% below price guides other times it is above by 30%, I just really don't know because I don't ever look at price guides unless some asks me why does the price guide have x going up or down. 

Now that you are aware of how price guides are made, next you have understand who are buyers in the transactions that are publicly recorded, are they dealers/investors or collectors.  Right now almost ALL the public transactions for gold panda and especially 1/2oz are dealer transactions and dealers don't care about varieties because they are buying to contribute to the effort to build master sets, so 1995 1/2 LD or SD doesn't really matter and price is the same.  Same goes for pricing of different grades, MS69, MS68 and OMP are all selling for the same price because it is dealers buying it. The fact that all varieties and grades are going for the same price is a big clue that collectors are not participating in the public record auctions.  When prices for varieties and high grades start spreading out, then we will have shifted from a dealer bid market to a collector bid market and you will know this is occurring because the price of 1995 1/2 LD will be selling for 10-40% higher than that of SD.

Right now I am very comfortable buying in this market as prices are starting to move up, because I know other dealers have put a floor on the market and my downside risk is very low.  When collectors come in and really take price up, then I will get worried and will lighten up on my holdings because their demand can disappear as quickly as it appears.

For two years I have been complaining how supply has dried up, but in the last two weeks I have accumulated months of supply, in the last 3 months over a year of supply compared to 2015 numbers.  Higher gold and higher prices for 1/2 is really brining the 1/2 out, today I bought 2x 1994 1/2 and 2003 1/2, I didn't even know the price guides had updated the prices when I bought based on my bids earlier in the week and luckily the people selling to me bought the coins for a fraction of their true value in coin shops.