Topic: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?

[Mirkkanen]

About 1 month ago, there was a true auction for a 1997 1/2 gold panda on ebay that ended for $4050. The sale is not reported in this month's Pricepedia, which still lists the value of a 1997 1/2 at $3,425. As of 2 weeks ago, Robert Mish was buying problem-free 1997 1/2s at $3,800. As of last week, Arif's offer is $3,900 (public info on this forum).

Private sales of 2003 1/2 gold pandas have been in the range of $2,300 to $2500+ for at least 4 weeks now, yet this month's Pricepedia still lists the value of a 2003 1/2 at $1,325. I sold one for $2,500. As of last week, Arif's offer is $2,900 (public info on this forum).

Without much thought, I could list 5 to 10 more examples of buyer/dealer bids that are significantly higher than Pricepedia's reported values.

What I see happening is that Pricepedia's focus is on Chinese auction house results at the exclusion of the main public venue for sales within the USA (eBay). Furthermore, since private transactions are rarely if ever reported/made public, Pricepedia also has no access to that price information UNLESS WE CHOOSE TO PROVIDE THIS INFO to the author. Since most sellers do not give this info to Mr. Anthony, Pricepedia no longer accurately reflects the value of most gold pandas in the US marketplace.

This might benefit some buyers, who will get a great deal from uninformed sellers, however, it may hurts sellers who may have trouble justifying their high "ask" to a prospective buyer for a coin that Pricepedia says is worth much less.  

WHAT I PROPOSE:

I am going to create a NEW thread that I propose should be STICKY in which CCF members can choose to publicly disclose completed sales with other forum members (or non-forum members). Sellers will be required to specify the date of the sale (month and year) and the venue (on CCF, private sale with CCF member, etc), but not the identity of the BUYER.

That way, this public information can be used by informed buyers and sellers to properly value gold pandas and other MCC for trades within the US market. Pricepedia's author, also a forum member, will have an easy time vetting this information for accuracy and authenticity, which I believe is why eBay auctions are not currently included within Pricepedia.

Feel free to comment. I hope this post does not offend any forum members nor ruin any business prospects. You may PM me if you feel this idea is horrible and should be stopped.

[KeyDate1/2ozPandas]

Your proposal has several flaws. 

1) I would never disclose private transactions identities or prices, they are private for reason, if I wanted to make them public I would list on eBay or post buy prices publicly or just create my own price guide. 

2) Back in 2011 pump and dump artists would post on the forum crazy prices they were getting for coins.  For example, you would see some say just sold a pagoda set for $25k.  Then you call him up and ask if he wants to buy one from you and he would offer $8K max, which was the right price to offer at the time, but newbies would be of the mind set, someone is offering me a set for $15K, $10K discount to the last transaction.  The artist ring (2-3 ids would pump, 1-2 ids would dump) created a false market on the forum and duped many newbies at the time (now they better) paying multiples of the coins true value.  None of us want a false market to dupe newbies that may join in the coming year. 

3) There are dealers that play this same game that Mirk is proposing here with an auction company rather than forum, they would hammer crazy auction prices for a rare coin (shill transaction), then at the show immediately following the auction they would have the same coin for sale (serial numbers were blocked in the auction record) at 10% discount to the auction price, when in reality the value of the coin was 30-50% less than hammer price. 

4) The more uncertainty there is in the market for the price of given item, the faster supply of that item will be locked up, allowing prices to rise to their eventual steady state quickly. 

Tread carefully whenever someone wants to create a thread (auction) to track market transactions, there is more risk of people getting burnt than being helped.

[Birdman]

About 1 month ago, there was a true auction for a 1997 1/2 gold panda on ebay that ended for $4050. The sale is not reported in this month's Pricepedia, which still lists the value of a 1997 1/2 at $3,425. As of 2 weeks ago, Robert Mish was buying problem-free 1997 1/2s at $3,800. As of last week, Arif's offer is $3,900 (public info on this forum).

Private sales of 2003 1/2 gold pandas have been in the range of $2,300 to $2500+ for at least 4 weeks now, yet this month's Pricepedia still lists the value of a 2003 1/2 at $1,325. I sold one for $2,500. As of last week, Arif's offer is $2,900 (public info on this forum).

Without much thought, I could list 5 to 10 more examples of buyer/dealer bids that are significantly higher than Pricepedia's reported values.

What I see happening is that Pricepedia's focus is on Chinese auction house results at the exclusion of the main public venue for sales within the USA (eBay). Furthermore, since private transactions are rarely if ever reported/made public, Pricepedia also has no access to that price information UNLESS WE CHOOSE TO PROVIDE THIS INFO to the author. Since most sellers do not give this info to Mr. Anthony, Pricepedia no longer accurately reflects the value of most gold pandas in the US marketplace.

This might benefit some buyers, who will get a great deal from uninformed sellers, however, it may hurts sellers who may have trouble justifying their high "ask" to a prospective buyer for a coin that Pricepedia says is worth much less.  

WHAT I PROPOSE:

I am going to create a NEW thread that I propose should be STICKY in which CCF members can choose to publicly disclose completed sales with other forum members (or non-forum members). Sellers will be required to specify the date of the sale (month and year) and the venue (on CCF, private sale with CCF member, etc), but not the identity of the BUYER.

That way, this public information can be used by informed buyers and sellers to properly value gold pandas and other MCC for trades within the US market. Pricepedia's author, also a forum member, will have an easy time vetting this information for accuracy and authenticity, which I believe is why eBay auctions are not currently included within Pricepedia.

Feel free to comment. I hope this post does not offend any forum members nor ruin any business prospects. You may PM me if you feel this idea is horrible and should be stopped.

The long term reputation of a particular price guide is dependent upon how accurate it is.  The price increases you note have been publicly available to anyone who has been paying attention.  The most charitable explanation for the inaccuracies in current value is that the author of a price guide has been distracted by other things, and hasn't put the work in to keep the guide current.  If I was a new subscriber, however, and I paid my subscription to learn current values, and I ended up selling my 1994 G1/2s for $4100  and my 2003 G1/2 for $1375, I would be upset.  Until there is a competing guide that is superior, however, there perhaps won't be pressure to improve the pricing information.

These past several months further emphasize the importance of doing your due diligence and determining from multiple sources and perspectives what the true value of something is before buying or selling.

[Mirkkanen]

@KeyDate1/2ozPandas, you make a couple of points that ring true to me. The idea may not be appropriate for this forum.

Would you care to comment on the assertion in the first half of my post, that "Pricepedia no longer accurately reflects the value of most gold pandas in the US marketplace?"

Your proposal has several flaws. 

1) I would never disclose private transactions identities or prices, they are private for reason, if I wanted to make them public I would list on eBay or post buy prices publicly or just create my own price guide. 

2) Back in 2011 pump and dump artists would post on the forum crazy prices they were getting for coins.  For example, you would see some say just sold a pagoda set for $25k.  Then you call him up and ask if he wants to buy one from you and he would offer $8K max, which was the right price to offer at the time, but newbies would be of the mind set, someone is offering me a set for $15K, $10K discount to the last transaction.  The artist ring (2-3 ids would pump, 1-2 ids would dump) created a false market on the forum and duped many newbies at the time (now they better) paying multiples of the coins true value.  None of us want a false market to dupe newbies that may join in the coming year. 

3) There are dealers that play this same game that Mirk is proposing here with an auction company rather than forum, they would hammer crazy auction prices for a rare coin (shill transaction), then at the show immediately following the auction they would have the same coin for sale (serial numbers were blocked in the auction record) at 10% discount to the auction price, when in reality the value of the coin was 30-50% less than hammer price. 

4) The more uncertainty there is in the market for the price of given item, the faster supply of that item will be locked up, allowing prices to rise to their eventual steady state quickly. 

Tread carefully whenever someone wants to create a thread (auction) to track market transactions, there is more risk of people getting burnt than being helped.

[PandaCollector]

China Pricepedia relies primarily on auction results to define market prices.  This works quite well for the vast majority of listings, although no method is perfect. I can also often weed out prices for fake or impaired coins by checking auction photos. On the other hand, Pricepedia covers thousands of coins and it is not possible to adjust the price of every coin from every source every month. In the case of the 1997 1/2 oz. gold Panda private prices have gotten ahead of the auction results I checked. I do take dealer buy offers into consideration when the source is trusted. From personal experience Robert Mish's buy prices are trusted. As you have brought this auction to my attention the coin's price will be adjusted in the next issue. If anyone feels that there are other coin prices in China Pricepedia that are not current feel free to email or pm me and I will look into it. Sometimes I will agree with suggestions, sometimes I won't. I appreciate the discussion and will always make an effort to keep China Pricepedia as current and accurate as possible.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

[KeepOnTrying!]

The China Pricepedia is one of several resources that can help guide coin buying and selling decisions. I hope it continues to evolve with the times so as to remain relevant. I also like the news and write-ups that come with it as that provides more insight into market conditions especially in China. I am quite sure the proprietor (and forum member) will welcome insight and market alerts as they arise, best communicated by PM or email.

My unease when I started reading this thread was reduced by KD1/2ozP's post (+1  ). No matter how noble initial intentions may be there is always a risk for market manipulation.

I would hope that someone who is uncertain about coin pricing will seek counsel from more experienced collectors too.

[Mirkkanen]

I am quite sure the proprietor (and forum member) will welcome insight and market alerts as they arise, best communicated by PM or email.

I agree, and he mentioned as much above.

No matter how noble initial intentions may be there is always a risk for market manipulation.

A bad apple theoretically has hundreds of opportunities to manipulate prices. Why wait for the creation of my thread to do so?

[KeyDate1/2ozPandas]

A bad apple theoretically has hundreds of opportunities to manipulate prices. Why wait for the creation of my thread to do so?

By having a senior member or worse admin creating the thread you give the manipulator more creditability.  This how 2011 played out, senior members and admin provided the creditability veil which duped so many.  

[Mirkkanen]

Peter, thank you for your reply above.

Also, thanks KD1/2P for your wisdom.

[Birdman]

Kudos to Peter for promptly updating the prices of the G1/2 in the new edition of Pricepedia he sent out today.  That helps to catch the price guide up to current market prices for most of these coins.  A quick scan through suggests that the big disparities have been addressed.  Thank you for so quickly responding to forum feedback +1

[Mirkkanen]

I, too, noticed that some of the disparities have been addressed. That was quick!

[KeyDate1/2ozPandas]

Looks like NGC price guide has been updated.    
 1994 LARGE DATE GOLD PANDA 50 YUAN MS    $ -  -  8,500(MS66)   9,000(MS67)   9,500(MS68)   10,500(MS69)   11,500 (MS70)
 1994P GOLD PANDA 50 YUAN PF UC                 $ -  -  8,500(PF66)    9,000(PF67)    9,500(PF68)     10,500(PF69)   11,500(PF70) 

[Pandora]

How about 1995 1/2 SD and LD?

[KeyDate1/2ozPandas]

$23,500 for ms69, variety doesn't matter for this coin.  The ngc price guide is free, you should log in to your NGC account.

[Birdman]

Looks like NGC price guide has been updated.    
 1994 LARGE DATE GOLD PANDA 50 YUAN MS    $ -  -  8,500(MS66)   9,000(MS67)   9,500(MS68)   10,500(MS69)   11,500 (MS70)
 1994P GOLD PANDA 50 YUAN PF UC                 $ -  -  8,500(PF66)    9,000(PF67)    9,500(PF68)     10,500(PF69)   11,500(PF70)  

Yet, also at NGC the 1992P GOLD PANDA 50 YUAN PF UC    $ -  -  1,400  1,450   1,550   2,150 (PF69)

Does anyone want to trade me five 1992P G50Y PF for one 1994P G50Y PF69?  Please PM me! Fast changing prices and limited number of auction sales puts a premium on reading between the lines and thinking through valuations.

[Pandora]

$23,500 for ms69, variety doesn't matter for this coin.  The ngc price guide is free, you should log in to your NGC account.

Thank you. Somehow I thought these prices came from Pricepedia. I will check out the NGC Guide.

[silverxsurfer]

$23,500 for ms69, variety doesn't matter for this coin.  The ngc price guide is free, you should log in to your NGC account.

Arif,

I'm curious, why do varieties for 1995 1/2 not matter?  Isn't the LD the rarer variety?  Even per the 2nd Panda Book?

[PandaCollector]

Arif,

I'm curious, why do varieties for 1995 1/2 not matter?  Isn't the LD the rarer variety?  Even per the 2nd Panda Book?

These are currently being bought for date sets. The buyers are oblivious to varieties.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

[PandaCollector]

Kudos to Peter for promptly updating the prices of the G1/2 in the new edition of Pricepedia he sent out today.  That helps to catch the price guide up to current market prices for most of these coins.  A quick scan through suggests that the big disparities have been addressed.  Thank you for so quickly responding to forum feedback +1

I appreciated the input from everyone. Thank you.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

[silverxsurfer]

These are currently being bought for date sets. The buyers are oblivious to varieties.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

Thank you, Peter!  Much appreciated for the response.

[PandaCollector]

$23,500 for ms69, variety doesn't matter for this coin.  The ngc price guide is free, you should log in to your NGC account.

The NGC Price Guide and China Pricepedia track each other closely for obvious reasons. Prices for graded Panda, Lunar and IDOC (Inventions and Discovery) coins can be found on NGC. For anyone needing that information I highly recommend it, and please look at the many other resources that NGC provides. China Pricepedia adds Original Mint Packaging prices, set prices, prices around the world, condition notes, etc. It also has articles by me and Adam Biagi as well as guest contributors. Each month we provide an inside look at the coin world that can't be found anywhere else. For May, Part 1 is 54 pages. This month Part 2 of China Pricepedia is 76 pages of almost exclusively prices, prices, prices for many other modern Chinese coins and series. A few examples are Guan Yin, Olympics, Traditional Culture, Romance of Three Kingdoms, Yellow River Culture etc., etc, etc. Last but not least is the China Pricepedia MCM Index which follows the movement of the overall modern Chinese coin market – only in China Pricepedia.

Happy collecting.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

[KeyDate1/2ozPandas]

Arif,
I'm curious, why do varieties for 1995 1/2 not matter?  Isn't the LD the rarer variety?  Even per the 2nd Panda Book?

First of all you have you to understand the personality of a price guide editors vs dealers.  

Price guide editors are reporters that report on prices they see in the public market place.  Next realize that the public market place accounts for 1-3% of all transactions and during periods of market spikes, closer to 1%.  So imagine if you were a price guide editor you are getting just 1% of the transaction information to update your price guide, clearly you can see price guides often will not reflect reality when markets are moving, but will do great when prices are flat for long periods of time.

Dealers on the other hand, are doing transactions everyday and are aware of bid/ask spreads for every coin, they have excellent pricing information at their finger tips, because they have to put out thousands to tens of thousands of dollars in checks every day as part of daily operation of their business.  So whenever someone quotes pricepedia price or NGC price guide or ebay transaction, I just inform them I don't look at any price guide to make my pricing decisions, because I have 20-50x more information available to me than price guide editors, sometimes my prices are 20% below price guides other times it is above by 30%, I just really don't know because I don't ever look at price guides unless some asks me why does the price guide have x going up or down.  

Now that you are aware of how price guides are made, next you have understand who are buyers in the transactions that are publicly recorded, are they dealers/investors or collectors.  Right now almost ALL the public transactions for gold panda and especially 1/2oz are dealer transactions and dealers don't care about varieties because they are buying to contribute to the effort to build master sets, so 1995 1/2 LD or SD doesn't really matter and price is the same.  Same goes for pricing of different grades, MS69, MS68 and OMP are all selling for the same price because it is dealers buying it. The fact that all varieties and grades are going for the same price is a big clue that collectors are not participating in the public record auctions.  When prices for varieties and high grades start spreading out, then we will have shifted from a dealer bid market to a collector bid market and you will know this is occurring because the price of 1995 1/2 LD will be selling for 10-40% higher than that of SD.

Right now I am very comfortable buying in this market as prices are starting to move up, because I know other dealers have put a floor on the market and my downside risk is very low.  When collectors come in and really take price up, then I will get worried and will lighten up on my holdings because their demand can disappear as quickly as it appears.

For two years I have been complaining how supply has dried up, but in the last two weeks I have accumulated months of supply, in the last 3 months over a year of supply compared to 2015 numbers.  Higher gold and higher prices for 1/2 is really brining the 1/2 out, today I bought 2x 1994 1/2 and 2003 1/2, I didn't even know the price guides had updated the prices when I bought based on my bids earlier in the week and luckily the people selling to me bought the coins for a fraction of their true value in coin shops. 

[PandaCollector]

Well, my friend Arif and I are at least in agreement that price guide writers and dealers have different perspectives and motives. There is room for both within the coin market. I have great esteem for Arif, as well as many other dealers who are my friends. They have a great deal of knowledge about the coins they handle, but are under no obligation to share that information in a way that might interfere with their business. Their job is to adjust and shade prices to make a profit. So, as Arif says, dealers may pay more or less than the going price for a coin as part of their normal business practices.

That is not, or should not be, the role of a price guide. China Pricepedia does not attempt to favor either buyers or sellers.  It is meant to provide a reasonable guide to market prices. Coins often sell for more or less between different stores, different cities and different countries. After reading this discussion on the Forum one dealer called me today to assert that there is no such thing as a “price” for a coin. There is only a range in which it should trade. He says people are always calling him to say his prices are too high or too low — for the same coin!

As for the rest, I am comfortable that China Pricepedia has access to a wide variety of sources, both public and private, to provide useful information to its readers. Prior to its first publication many collectors sold their coins for a small fraction of market value due to lack of knowledge about true coin prices. That is why when this discussion raised questions on a small, but important, segment of its coverage a new issue was released so soon.

Thanks again to everyone for raising some valid issues and provoking a very interesting discussion. Special thanks to Arif for all his efforts to educate and inform collectors of modern Chinese coins.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

[silverxsurfer]

Wow! Thank you, Arif, for the detailed explanation. This is very insightful and helpful.

First of all you have you to understand the personality of a price guide editors vs dealers. 

Price guide editors are reporters that report on prices they see in the public market place.  Next realize that the public market place accounts for 1-3% of all transactions and during periods of market spikes, closer to 1%.  So imagine if you were a price guide editor you are getting just 1% of the transaction information to update your price guide, clearly you can see price guides often will not reflect reality when markets are moving, but will do great when prices are flat for long periods of time.

Dealers on the other hand, are doing transactions everyday and are aware of bid/ask spreads for every coin, they have excellent pricing information at their finger tips, because they have to put out thousands to tens of thousands of dollars in checks every day as part of daily operation of their business.  So whenever someone quotes pricepedia price or NGC price guide or ebay transaction, I just inform them I don't look at any price guide to make my pricing decisions, because I have 20-50x more information available to me than price guide editors, sometimes my prices are 20% below price guides other times it is above by 30%, I just really don't know because I don't ever look at price guides unless some asks me why does the price guide have x going up or down. 

Now that you are aware of how price guides are made, next you have understand who are buyers in the transactions that are publicly recorded, are they dealers/investors or collectors.  Right now almost ALL the public transactions for gold panda and especially 1/2oz are dealer transactions and dealers don't care about varieties because they are buying to contribute to the effort to build master sets, so 1995 1/2 LD or SD doesn't really matter and price is the same.  Same goes for pricing of different grades, MS69, MS68 and OMP are all selling for the same price because it is dealers buying it. The fact that all varieties and grades are going for the same price is a big clue that collectors are not participating in the public record auctions.  When prices for varieties and high grades start spreading out, then we will have shifted from a dealer bid market to a collector bid market and you will know this is occurring because the price of 1995 1/2 LD will be selling for 10-40% higher than that of SD.

Right now I am very comfortable buying in this market as prices are starting to move up, because I know other dealers have put a floor on the market and my downside risk is very low.  When collectors come in and really take price up, then I will get worried and will lighten up on my holdings because their demand can disappear as quickly as it appears.

For two years I have been complaining how supply has dried up, but in the last two weeks I have accumulated months of supply, in the last 3 months over a year of supply compared to 2015 numbers.  Higher gold and higher prices for 1/2 is really brining the 1/2 out, today I bought 2x 1994 1/2 and 2003 1/2, I didn't even know the price guides had updated the prices when I bought based on my bids earlier in the week and luckily the people selling to me bought the coins for a fraction of their true value in coin shops.