Author Topic: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?  (Read 7199 times)

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Offline Mirkkanen

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About 1 month ago, there was a true auction for a 1997 1/2 gold panda on ebay that ended for $4050. The sale is not reported in this month's Pricepedia, which still lists the value of a 1997 1/2 at $3,425. As of 2 weeks ago, Robert Mish was buying problem-free 1997 1/2s at $3,800. As of last week, Arif's offer is $3,900 (public info on this forum).

Private sales of 2003 1/2 gold pandas have been in the range of $2,300 to $2500+ for at least 4 weeks now, yet this month's Pricepedia still lists the value of a 2003 1/2 at $1,325. I sold one for $2,500. As of last week, Arif's offer is $2,900 (public info on this forum).

Without much thought, I could list 5 to 10 more examples of buyer/dealer bids that are significantly higher than Pricepedia's reported values.

What I see happening is that Pricepedia's focus is on Chinese auction house results at the exclusion of the main public venue for sales within the USA (eBay). Furthermore, since private transactions are rarely if ever reported/made public, Pricepedia also has no access to that price information UNLESS WE CHOOSE TO PROVIDE THIS INFO to the author. Since most sellers do not give this info to Mr. Anthony, Pricepedia no longer accurately reflects the value of most gold pandas in the US marketplace.

This might benefit some buyers, who will get a great deal from uninformed sellers, however, it may hurts sellers who may have trouble justifying their high "ask" to a prospective buyer for a coin that Pricepedia says is worth much less.  

WHAT I PROPOSE:

I am going to create a NEW thread that I propose should be STICKY in which CCF members can choose to publicly disclose completed sales with other forum members (or non-forum members). Sellers will be required to specify the date of the sale (month and year) and the venue (on CCF, private sale with CCF member, etc), but not the identity of the BUYER.

That way, this public information can be used by informed buyers and sellers to properly value gold pandas and other MCC for trades within the US market. Pricepedia's author, also a forum member, will have an easy time vetting this information for accuracy and authenticity, which I believe is why eBay auctions are not currently included within Pricepedia.

Feel free to comment. I hope this post does not offend any forum members nor ruin any business prospects. You may PM me if you feel this idea is horrible and should be stopped.



Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2016, 03:01:54 PM »
Your proposal has several flaws. 

1) I would never disclose private transactions identities or prices, they are private for reason, if I wanted to make them public I would list on eBay or post buy prices publicly or just create my own price guide. 

2) Back in 2011 pump and dump artists would post on the forum crazy prices they were getting for coins.  For example, you would see some say just sold a pagoda set for $25k.  Then you call him up and ask if he wants to buy one from you and he would offer $8K max, which was the right price to offer at the time, but newbies would be of the mind set, someone is offering me a set for $15K, $10K discount to the last transaction.  The artist ring (2-3 ids would pump, 1-2 ids would dump) created a false market on the forum and duped many newbies at the time (now they better) paying multiples of the coins true value.  None of us want a false market to dupe newbies that may join in the coming year. 

3) There are dealers that play this same game that Mirk is proposing here with an auction company rather than forum, they would hammer crazy auction prices for a rare coin (shill transaction), then at the show immediately following the auction they would have the same coin for sale (serial numbers were blocked in the auction record) at 10% discount to the auction price, when in reality the value of the coin was 30-50% less than hammer price. 

4) The more uncertainty there is in the market for the price of given item, the faster supply of that item will be locked up, allowing prices to rise to their eventual steady state quickly. 

Tread carefully whenever someone wants to create a thread (auction) to track market transactions, there is more risk of people getting burnt than being helped.

Offline Birdman

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2016, 03:15:58 PM »
About 1 month ago, there was a true auction for a 1997 1/2 gold panda on ebay that ended for $4050. The sale is not reported in this month's Pricepedia, which still lists the value of a 1997 1/2 at $3,425. As of 2 weeks ago, Robert Mish was buying problem-free 1997 1/2s at $3,800. As of last week, Arif's offer is $3,900 (public info on this forum).

Private sales of 2003 1/2 gold pandas have been in the range of $2,300 to $2500+ for at least 4 weeks now, yet this month's Pricepedia still lists the value of a 2003 1/2 at $1,325. I sold one for $2,500. As of last week, Arif's offer is $2,900 (public info on this forum).

Without much thought, I could list 5 to 10 more examples of buyer/dealer bids that are significantly higher than Pricepedia's reported values.

What I see happening is that Pricepedia's focus is on Chinese auction house results at the exclusion of the main public venue for sales within the USA (eBay). Furthermore, since private transactions are rarely if ever reported/made public, Pricepedia also has no access to that price information UNLESS WE CHOOSE TO PROVIDE THIS INFO to the author. Since most sellers do not give this info to Mr. Anthony, Pricepedia no longer accurately reflects the value of most gold pandas in the US marketplace.

This might benefit some buyers, who will get a great deal from uninformed sellers, however, it may hurts sellers who may have trouble justifying their high "ask" to a prospective buyer for a coin that Pricepedia says is worth much less.  

WHAT I PROPOSE:

I am going to create a NEW thread that I propose should be STICKY in which CCF members can choose to publicly disclose completed sales with other forum members (or non-forum members). Sellers will be required to specify the date of the sale (month and year) and the venue (on CCF, private sale with CCF member, etc), but not the identity of the BUYER.

That way, this public information can be used by informed buyers and sellers to properly value gold pandas and other MCC for trades within the US market. Pricepedia's author, also a forum member, will have an easy time vetting this information for accuracy and authenticity, which I believe is why eBay auctions are not currently included within Pricepedia.

Feel free to comment. I hope this post does not offend any forum members nor ruin any business prospects. You may PM me if you feel this idea is horrible and should be stopped.




The long term reputation of a particular price guide is dependent upon how accurate it is.  The price increases you note have been publicly available to anyone who has been paying attention.  The most charitable explanation for the inaccuracies in current value is that the author of a price guide has been distracted by other things, and hasn't put the work in to keep the guide current.  If I was a new subscriber, however, and I paid my subscription to learn current values, and I ended up selling my 1994 G1/2s for $4100  and my 2003 G1/2 for $1375, I would be upset.  Until there is a competing guide that is superior, however, there perhaps won't be pressure to improve the pricing information.

These past several months further emphasize the importance of doing your due diligence and determining from multiple sources and perspectives what the true value of something is before buying or selling.

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2016, 03:32:12 PM »
@KeyDate1/2ozPandas, you make a couple of points that ring true to me. The idea may not be appropriate for this forum.

Would you care to comment on the assertion in the first half of my post, that "Pricepedia no longer accurately reflects the value of most gold pandas in the US marketplace?"

Your proposal has several flaws. 

1) I would never disclose private transactions identities or prices, they are private for reason, if I wanted to make them public I would list on eBay or post buy prices publicly or just create my own price guide. 

2) Back in 2011 pump and dump artists would post on the forum crazy prices they were getting for coins.  For example, you would see some say just sold a pagoda set for $25k.  Then you call him up and ask if he wants to buy one from you and he would offer $8K max, which was the right price to offer at the time, but newbies would be of the mind set, someone is offering me a set for $15K, $10K discount to the last transaction.  The artist ring (2-3 ids would pump, 1-2 ids would dump) created a false market on the forum and duped many newbies at the time (now they better) paying multiples of the coins true value.  None of us want a false market to dupe newbies that may join in the coming year. 

3) There are dealers that play this same game that Mirk is proposing here with an auction company rather than forum, they would hammer crazy auction prices for a rare coin (shill transaction), then at the show immediately following the auction they would have the same coin for sale (serial numbers were blocked in the auction record) at 10% discount to the auction price, when in reality the value of the coin was 30-50% less than hammer price. 

4) The more uncertainty there is in the market for the price of given item, the faster supply of that item will be locked up, allowing prices to rise to their eventual steady state quickly. 

Tread carefully whenever someone wants to create a thread (auction) to track market transactions, there is more risk of people getting burnt than being helped.

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2016, 03:53:52 PM »
China Pricepedia relies primarily on auction results to define market prices.  This works quite well for the vast majority of listings, although no method is perfect. I can also often weed out prices for fake or impaired coins by checking auction photos. On the other hand, Pricepedia covers thousands of coins and it is not possible to adjust the price of every coin from every source every month. In the case of the 1997 1/2 oz. gold Panda private prices have gotten ahead of the auction results I checked. I do take dealer buy offers into consideration when the source is trusted. From personal experience Robert Mish's buy prices are trusted. As you have brought this auction to my attention the coin's price will be adjusted in the next issue. If anyone feels that there are other coin prices in China Pricepedia that are not current feel free to email or pm me and I will look into it. Sometimes I will agree with suggestions, sometimes I won't. I appreciate the discussion and will always make an effort to keep China Pricepedia as current and accurate as possible.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2016, 07:19:59 PM »
The China Pricepedia is one of several resources that can help guide coin buying and selling decisions. I hope it continues to evolve with the times so as to remain relevant. I also like the news and write-ups that come with it as that provides more insight into market conditions especially in China. I am quite sure the proprietor (and forum member) will welcome insight and market alerts as they arise, best communicated by PM or email.

My unease when I started reading this thread was reduced by KD1/2ozP's post (+1  N31). No matter how noble initial intentions may be there is always a risk for market manipulation.

I would hope that someone who is uncertain about coin pricing will seek counsel from more experienced collectors too.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2016, 07:40:04 PM »
I am quite sure the proprietor (and forum member) will welcome insight and market alerts as they arise, best communicated by PM or email.

I agree, and he mentioned as much above.

No matter how noble initial intentions may be there is always a risk for market manipulation.

A bad apple theoretically has hundreds of opportunities to manipulate prices. Why wait for the creation of my thread to do so?

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2016, 09:20:38 PM »

A bad apple theoretically has hundreds of opportunities to manipulate prices. Why wait for the creation of my thread to do so?

By having a senior member or worse admin creating the thread you give the manipulator more creditability.  This how 2011 played out, senior members and admin provided the creditability veil which duped so many.  


Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2016, 09:51:39 PM »
Peter, thank you for your reply above.

Also, thanks KD1/2P for your wisdom.

Offline Birdman

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #9 on: May 06, 2016, 03:44:21 PM »
Kudos to Peter for promptly updating the prices of the G1/2 in the new edition of Pricepedia he sent out today.  That helps to catch the price guide up to current market prices for most of these coins.  A quick scan through suggests that the big disparities have been addressed.  Thank you for so quickly responding to forum feedback N31 +1

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2016, 04:14:06 PM »
I, too, noticed that some of the disparities have been addressed. That was quick!

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2016, 04:16:39 PM »
Looks like NGC price guide has been updated.    
 1994 LARGE DATE GOLD PANDA 50 YUAN MS    $ -  -  8,500(MS66)   9,000(MS67)   9,500(MS68)   10,500(MS69)   11,500 (MS70)
 1994P GOLD PANDA 50 YUAN PF UC                 $ -  -  8,500(PF66)    9,000(PF67)    9,500(PF68)     10,500(PF69)   11,500(PF70) 

Offline Pandora

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2016, 04:38:15 PM »
How about 1995 1/2 SD and LD?

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #13 on: May 06, 2016, 05:32:52 PM »
$23,500 for ms69, variety doesn't matter for this coin.  The ngc price guide is free, you should log in to your NGC account.

Offline Birdman

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Re: CHINA PRICEPEDIA No Longer Reflecting Price Action in the USA?
« Reply #14 on: May 06, 2016, 05:40:26 PM »
Looks like NGC price guide has been updated.    
 1994 LARGE DATE GOLD PANDA 50 YUAN MS    $ -  -  8,500(MS66)   9,000(MS67)   9,500(MS68)   10,500(MS69)   11,500 (MS70)
 1994P GOLD PANDA 50 YUAN PF UC                 $ -  -  8,500(PF66)    9,000(PF67)    9,500(PF68)     10,500(PF69)   11,500(PF70)  

Yet, also at NGC the 1992P GOLD PANDA 50 YUAN PF UC    $ -  -  1,400  1,450   1,550   2,150 (PF69)

Does anyone want to trade me five 1992P G50Y PF for one 1994P G50Y PF69?  Please PM me! Fast changing prices and limited number of auction sales puts a premium on reading between the lines and thinking through valuations.