Author Topic: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold  (Read 6444 times)

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Offline Mirkkanen

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MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« on: April 29, 2016, 07:55:56 PM »
This weekend could be the last where the price of gold is below $1,300. I'm not saying I'll be betting on it, but it is a possibility. There are already so few transactions being conducted publicly due to the scarcity of halves and the relative stagnation of the other sizes of gold pandas that I wonder whether higher prices, albeit relatively gentle gains, will bring more coins to the market.

Any thoughts?
 

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2016, 11:46:41 PM »
This weekend could be the last where the price of gold is below $1,300. I'm not saying I'll be betting on it, but it is a possibility. There are already so few transactions being conducted publicly due to the scarcity of halves and the relative stagnation of the other sizes of gold pandas that I wonder whether higher prices, albeit relatively gentle gains, will bring more coins to the market.

Any thoughts?
 

If we believe that a majority of the top performing 1/2oz gold panda coin owners are experienced astute operators it is not likely that a short term price rise will make them bring their coins to the market. Seems like there is a very long term perspective in that area of coin ownership.
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Offline trozau

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2016, 12:35:34 AM »
Hmmm...I don't collect the 1/2 troz panda gold size but I gave them as gifts to 2 nieces and 1 nephew who got married back in 1999 (niece) and 2000 (nephew and niece). I also gave a 1/4 troz gold panda as gift to another niece who got married in 1990. For my daughter, I gave her a 2010 1 troz gold panda and an 1885 6 pence (for her shoe) for her wedding.
trozau (troy ounce gold)
honi soit qui mal y pense

gold - the barbarous relic!

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2016, 12:52:59 AM »
Higher gold and higher prices for 1/2 has brought out more supply, plus with bid prices rising daily coins that were too expensive three months ago are bargains now.  I spent just 1 day at the Chicago show and bought 17 1/2oz coins, passed on 4 of them due to condition (ms68 quality at best) and 2 of them due to price (it doesn't make sense to pay $23k for 1995 1/2 sd).  At a typical show last year I was lucky to buy 2-3 pieces. 

As gold rises collectors and investors will go back into their safe to see what they have, for 3-4 years they just blocked out their bad gold purchases, now they are getting excited again.  As for dealers, with gold on the rise collectors and investors are buying again so dealers are flush with cash and they need to buy something, which drives prices up for rare coins quickly.

This moment feels a lot like spring 2010.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2016, 02:11:48 AM »
If I have to believe some outside sources you accurately called the snap for two years later. So how long do we expect to ride the gravy train this time!

If no other person knows it you KNOW I respect your knowledge in this area.

Thanks.
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Offline PandaBear

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2016, 05:59:43 AM »
@Mirkkanen,  I hope your right too!  I mainly buy bullion but definitely thinking about purchasing something.  Maybe Ill buy something from my friend to help him out but I already gave the guy 10k USD just because. 

Offline silverpv

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2016, 04:16:28 PM »
@Mirkkanen,  I hope your right too!  I mainly buy bullion but definitely thinking about purchasing something.  Maybe Ill buy something from my friend to help him out but I already gave the guy 10k USD just because. 

Can I be your friend too?

I think prices will stabilize for the time being, while some try not to be left behind on the bullion run. Premiums will go down.

Offline mazinger7000

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2016, 07:46:09 PM »
Higher gold and higher prices for 1/2 has brought out more supply, plus with bid prices rising daily coins that were too expensive three months ago are bargains now.  I spent just 1 day at the Chicago show and bought 17 1/2oz coins, passed on 4 of them due to condition (ms68 quality at best) and 2 of them due to price (it doesn't make sense to pay $23k for 1995 1/2 sd).  At a typical show last year I was lucky to buy 2-3 pieces. 

As gold rises collectors and investors will go back into their safe to see what they have, for 3-4 years they just blocked out their bad gold purchases, now they are getting excited again.  As for dealers, with gold on the rise collectors and investors are buying again so dealers are flush with cash and they need to buy something, which drives prices up for rare coins quickly.

This moment feels a lot like spring 2010.

i was given to understand that there are very few good coins at these shows anymore, particularly 1/2 gold pandas. are you willing to tell us if you bought key, semi key or semi semi key ones? :)

Offline Birdman

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2016, 08:05:22 PM »
i was given to understand that there are very few good coins at these shows anymore, particularly 1/2 gold pandas. are you willing to tell us if you bought key, semi key or semi semi key ones? :)

If someone starts paying a large enough premium, I think he or she will find plenty of material to pick from.  The good stuff will find them.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2016, 09:45:55 PM »
There are very few coins coming out during the bear market which took gold from $1600 to $1100, but now with gold going up from $1100 to $1300, the less experienced sellers are coming into coin shops and selling their coins.  Also, it doesn't hurt when bid prices are up 20-50% for some of the 1/2oz coins, coins that in the past would just sit in display cases or ebay suddenly are close to market.  Some laugh at AU3000 listings (he was at the show), but when prices spike his prices become reasonable, so supply that was not counted a month earlier is counted when the price gets to his ask.  There are several dealers like that out there, they quote peak prices regardless of the market, most often they have coins on consignment from their customers and know nothing about the market.

I bought 1/2 from 89, 94, 96, 97, 99, 01D, 04-10.  Could have bought 95 and 98 sets, but price too high.  Could have bought 1995 1/2, price too high.  For the coin I did buy I paid retail prices, only a few I got lucky to find at old price levels.  I hope long beach in June is as good, there is a great feeling when you can buy something you want even if the price is too high for the current market.

Offline mazinger7000

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2016, 12:10:18 AM »
There are very few coins coming out during the bear market which took gold from $1600 to $1100, but now with gold going up from $1100 to $1300, the less experienced sellers are coming into coin shops and selling their coins.  Also, it doesn't hurt when bid prices are up 20-50% for some of the 1/2oz coins, coins that in the past would just sit in display cases or ebay suddenly are close to market.  Some laugh at AU3000 listings (he was at the show), but when prices spike his prices become reasonable, so supply that was not counted a month earlier is counted when the price gets to his ask.  There are several dealers like that out there, they quote peak prices regardless of the market, most often they have coins on consignment from their customers and know nothing about the market.

I bought 1/2 from 89, 94, 96, 97, 99, 01D, 04-10.  Could have bought 95 and 98 sets, but price too high.  Could have bought 1995 1/2, price too high.  For the coin I did buy I paid retail prices, only a few I got lucky to find at old price levels.  I hope long beach in June is as good, there is a great feeling when you can buy something you want even if the price is too high for the current market.

thanks again for your open sharing of info as always! last show in long beach was like a desert, virtually nothing good in pandas there. perhaps now it will be different? i'm glad you will be there, as i'm sure are many others.

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2016, 12:39:27 AM »
But will he be there as a dealer, or as a collector/investor (buyer)?

As for my thoughts on the topic, I think that an increase is metal prices will bring some coins to market. There will be some great buys for people in the right place at the right time. There will be some coins for purchase by those willing to buy at current market price. Many will probably watch and wait on the sidelines.


Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2016, 12:52:07 AM »
I have zero desire to sell at the show, I want to buy, buy, buy.  The only time when I set up at coin shows to sell was March 2011-January 2012, after that I only attended with intent to buy.  If you notice I don't advertise to sell on ebay, pricepedia, coin world, etc.  Selling gold pandas is easy, it is reinvesting the sales proceeds that is very difficult.

I will be setting up at the long beach show in June for Wednesday and Thursday because the table is almost free due many dealers cutting back on shows.  I believe the coin shows future is as bright as bricks and mortar book stores (Barnes and Nobel) or video stores (Blockbuster).  Ebay and auction houses will dominate the future of the coin business.

Offline xiaohei99

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2016, 01:56:32 AM »
I bought 1/2 from 89, 94, 96, 97, 99, 01D, 04-10.  Could have bought 95 and 98 sets, but price too high.  Could have bought 1995 1/2, price too high.  For the coin I did buy I paid retail prices, only a few I got lucky to find at old price levels.  I hope long beach in June is as good, there is a great feeling when you can buy something you want even if the price is too high for the current market.

I noticed your purchase didn't contain 2000 1/2, for which you passed or didn't find it at the show ?
What do you think of 2000 1/2 which is out of love for quite some time.
Is it because the crash of mirrored variety?

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2016, 07:56:42 AM »
I didn't see any 2000 for sale.  It is getting the love lately, you will hard press to buy it for under $3000. 

$1300 gold is here, lets hope the it attracts more supply to the market.

Offline xiaohei99

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #15 on: May 02, 2016, 10:02:50 AM »
I didn't see any 2000 for sale.  It is getting the love lately, you will hard press to buy it for under $3000. 

$1300 gold is here, lets hope the it attracts more supply to the market.

I see, thank you for the info.

Offline Pandora

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #16 on: May 02, 2016, 11:55:40 AM »
There is an early Dealers only meet in Long Beach expo on Wednesdays. I suspect most of the rare Pandas supply gets exchanged/bought in that meet - leaving not much for general public for Thursday-Saturday.

Offline mazinger7000

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #17 on: May 02, 2016, 08:00:48 PM »
There is an early Dealers only meet in Long Beach expo on Wednesdays. I suspect most of the rare Pandas supply gets exchanged/bought in that meet - leaving not much for general public for Thursday-Saturday.

in other words, if you're looking to buy and you are not a dealer, or have some way to get in wednesday, there is not much point in attending the show?

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #18 on: May 02, 2016, 08:03:44 PM »
Not exactly. You may still find (and have the opportunity to buy) the coins you are looking for, but only if you are willing to pay more than the dealer who likely purchased it from another dealer hours/the day prior (assuming the dealer chooses to offer it for sale).

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #19 on: May 02, 2016, 09:23:28 PM »
90% of my purchases are done on Wednesday as dealer to dealer transactions.  10% on Thursday as public brings coins to sell at the show.  Friday and Saturday I just let my table partner spread out and I either go home or take kids to knots berry farm.  Coin shows are busy on dealer set up day and first day show is open, the other two days are boring if you specialize in a narrow market like gold pandas.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #20 on: June 24, 2016, 12:00:11 AM »
Brexit appears to have won the vote. Spot July gold future is up $78 to $1343 and Dow future is down 635 as 11:59 pm.

Offline Tao-Panda

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #21 on: June 24, 2016, 04:51:05 AM »
Brexit appears to have won the vote. Spot July gold future is up $78 to $1343 and Dow future is down 635 as 11:59 pm.

 N48 N48 N48 Brexit wins N48 N48 N48

Very good news for the freedom of all European people !!!
Hope that all European nations will follow and find back their right for self-determination.

For the record, the referendum is not binding but only consultative.

Now, we have to see if the Parliament will follow the referendum... as Greece did not last year.
But in this case, I do not see how it can be possible but with European institutions, everything is possible.

Offline moosician

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #22 on: June 24, 2016, 05:16:48 AM »
Back down to $1308 now. Hmm...

Offline Pandora

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #23 on: June 24, 2016, 01:04:53 PM »
1304-1314 was previous high. Now it becomes support. This is more likely scenario. But it can cross 1304 and then stop at 1282 sh. Either way, it will come back up and test the 1360 last night high.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #24 on: June 25, 2016, 07:49:10 AM »
Most recent articles say gold needs to break $1300 and hold there for the next move up to $2,000 and then beyond.........

Offline PandaBear

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #25 on: June 25, 2016, 08:47:09 AM »
Read George Soros and his rich buddies has been quietly buying up Gold and silver mining companies and physicals not too long ago as revealed in the mandatory SEC filings per qtr. 

Offline silverpv

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #26 on: June 25, 2016, 12:06:10 PM »
Read George Soros and his rich buddies has been quietly buying up Gold and silver mining companies and physicals not too long ago as revealed in the mandatory SEC filings per qtr. 

It wasn't really quiet. THey said something along the lines of $57 million for Soros in GLD. Drukenmiller also put something like 300 mill down awhile ago. They have been buying miners and streamers for as you mentioned a few months. It's just the media doesn't promote it like they do other analysts.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: MCC Market's Reaction to $1300+ gold
« Reply #27 on: June 25, 2016, 03:19:25 PM »
A rise in the U.S. dollar, as investors seek safe havens after Brexit vote, would likely contribute to declines in commodity prices, such as oil and metals. Gold may be an exception, since it is also affected by the uncertainty of the financial market. Time will tell. For short term, uncertainty of financial market will be the dominate factor of gold valuation.
 
A slower export growth to Europe (China's biggest customer), may renew concerns about an economic hard landing for China. This may prompt an eventual devaluation of the Chinese yuan versus U.S. dollar. The yuan has devalued about 7% vs. dollar during last 12 months (from RMB 6.20 to RMB 6.62/dollar).

In general, increase the valuation of currency will promote the import. As shown in the attached chart, the yuan valuation vs. dollar had a significantly increase vs. dollar during 2010-2013 (about 10%), a period that Chinese MCC dealers had actively purchased MCC, such as lunars and rare coins from US and EU. Currently, it is very hard to find listing of lunar gold coins at eBay by US seller. After 2013, the Chinese dealers has increased their activities in purchasing gold pandas. However, based on the recent HA auction results, the trend may have slowed down and even reversed. IMO, if the devaluation of yuan vs. dollar continues, the red hot section of gold panda may not be sustainable, since the cost of doing business of Chinese dealers will be increased with the devaluation of yuan.