Author Topic: This is what I learned from my worst trade or purchase.  (Read 9483 times)

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Offline Birdman

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Re: This is what I learned from my worst trade or purchase.
« Reply #15 on: April 11, 2016, 03:47:16 PM »
And then I started buying old chinese silver - there I started to like the old craftsmanship&design. Somehow I am having the idea if the silver was ok the last hundred years and if the grades are somewhere between 45 and 63 - the risk of loosing money due to toning or spots is much lower - my second mistake ?- or did I turn into a collector - what are your thoughts?

KR,
sasushi

I have a collection of silver crowns of the world (mostly Latin American and some Asian).  That was the bulk of my collection before I got into gold pandas because of some of the gold pandas' compelling characteristics for investing.  I am more of a collector in this sense.  I have paid a lot of money for certain old silver coins simply because they appealed to me and filled a hole in my collection.  I'm not sure I'll be able to sell a few of them for more in the future, but it gave me pleasure. 

Part of the reason I justified a few purchases is for several years I was buying up OMP pandas for near spot price in coins shops that didn't appreciate their value, getting the coins graded, and then selling them for market value.  With some of the extra money I'd buy more pandas and with some, I bought big old silver coins.  Here is one http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=5024.msg30379#msg30379  In some ways this could be classified as my worst investment!  I paid a lot, and if I had to sell it today I probably couldn't get the same value.  But, it gives me pleasure to have it in my collection.  Also, it is like your winnings at a casino; if you've had a good day at the tables, you'll splurge with a nice purchase.  For this coin I had gotten a few OMP pandas graded as low pop MS70s and sold them for nice prices.  So I had play money  :001_rolleyes:

I think the old silver coins can be great collectibles and, depending on when you buy them they can be good investments.  The prices can be cyclical.  Buy them when they are out of favor.

Offline r3globe

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Re: This is what I learned from my worst trade or purchase.
« Reply #16 on: April 11, 2016, 04:35:39 PM »
Birdman, thank you for this thread. It has been very informative and interesting. Also, thanks to all the members who are sharing their experiences.

I am not sure if this is the right place for it in this thread, but I have been trying to connect the dots of the macro view of Chinese economy and coins. I would greatly appreciate your views.

Here is my attempt at explaining what is happening:

It seems that Chinese economy survived the 2008 crisis because they had a lot of reserves for a "rainy" day. The rainy day came in 2008, and they used the reserves to push through it [quoting Jim Rogers more or less]. Now, they have little reserves and the next crisis (which we are due for one) should be much worse. PBOC is supporting the Yuan for now, but they can not do that for much longer. Could it be that the new momentum in buying MCC is anticipating a lower Yuan? So, get in something physical that could weather the next currency storm? If there is truth to this, watch out. There will be a SHOCK to the MCC market once Yuan devalues because collectors' purchase power in yuan is weaker! I witnessed that with the Russian coin market. IF & WHEN that happens it could be a great buying opportunity.


Offline pandaccumulator

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Re: This is what I learned from my worst trade or purchase.
« Reply #17 on: April 11, 2016, 08:10:38 PM »

It seems that Chinese economy survived the 2008 crisis because they had a lot of reserves for a "rainy" day. The rainy day came in 2008, and they used the reserves to push through it [quoting Jim Rogers more or less]. Now, they have little reserves and the next crisis (which we are due for one) should be much worse. PBOC is supporting the Yuan for now, but they can not do that for much longer. Could it be that the new momentum in buying MCC is anticipating a lower Yuan? So, get in something physical that could weather the next currency storm? If there is truth to this, watch out. There will be a SHOCK to the MCC market once Yuan devalues because collectors' purchase power in yuan is weaker! I witnessed that with the Russian coin market. IF & WHEN that happens it could be a great buying opportunity.


I share your view in this regard. IMO, Chinese yuan is till over-valued, it is holding there b/c of the support by Chinese government. When Chinese yuan devalues, MCC will be worth less in USD basis.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: This is what I learned from my worst trade or purchase.
« Reply #18 on: April 11, 2016, 10:32:13 PM »
Some say the Yuan will devalue, others say China will tie the Yuan to gold and accelerate in value.    Google to "gold backed yuan April 2016".   Several articles worth reading there and i have read this in the past.    Not sure what to think of it.    Any opinions?..........

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: This is what I learned from my worst trade or purchase.
« Reply #19 on: April 11, 2016, 10:57:43 PM »
No major currency will ever be tied to gold or any other precious metal, anyone tries to sell you on that concept doesn't understand economics or is slick gold salesman.  If you are a government and you can either have unlimited rights to print money or limited right to print money, every time the government will choose unlimited right.  Second, having unlimited rights to print money provides the economy cushion to ride out cycles, so if a country ever does go to the gold standard, short that country, because once they experience any hiccup they will enter a financial crisis and the government will have no power to save the economy and eventually the will have to liquidate all their gold. 

Offline Birdman

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Re: This is what I learned from my worst trade or purchase.
« Reply #20 on: April 12, 2016, 04:37:47 AM »
No major currency will ever be tied to gold or any other precious metal, anyone tries to sell you on that concept doesn't understand economics or is slick gold salesman.  If you are a government and you can either have unlimited rights to print money or limited right to print money, every time the government will choose unlimited right.  Second, having unlimited rights to print money provides the economy cushion to ride out cycles, so if a country ever does go to the gold standard, short that country, because once they experience any hiccup they will enter a financial crisis and the government will have no power to save the economy and eventually the will have to liquidate all their gold. 
A concise and convincing analysis, Arif.

Offline BubbaJones

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Re: This is what I learned from my worst trade or purchase.
« Reply #21 on: April 12, 2016, 06:20:43 AM »
My only suggestion? 

Read Jim Rickards new book: 'The New Case for Gold' and see the opposite view.

Let us know what you think after you read it. 

Oh, and he's not a slick gold salesman.  No skin in the game, if you will. 


Offline pandamonium

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Re: This is what I learned from my worst trade or purchase.
« Reply #22 on: April 12, 2016, 07:44:37 AM »
Jim Rickards last article says that the Swiss biggest gold refinery cannot find gold supply to meet huge demand.......

Offline Grip

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Re: This is what I learned from my worst trade or purchase.
« Reply #23 on: April 12, 2016, 08:13:13 AM »
Off topic but very interesting article on how the SGE fix will affect LBMA synthetic paper PM pricing. Well worth a read...

http://www.safehaven.com/article/41072/moving-to-the-post-lbma-era-gold-price-reset-watch-out

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: This is what I learned from my worst trade or purchase.
« Reply #24 on: April 12, 2016, 09:38:27 AM »
Yes, HYPE, misinformation and creation of an alternate reality. These are all buffeting winds that have pushed individuals into making bad trades and purchases. It is still alive and pulsing!
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline BubbaJones

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Re: This is what I learned from my worst trade or purchase.
« Reply #25 on: April 12, 2016, 06:45:26 PM »
All I know is gold and silver have been used as money from time immemorial. 

If it was good enough for Abraham, Solomon, David and the other greats of old...It is good enough for me. 

I don't need articles and books to tell tell me what is 'God's money.'  I know value when I see it, and thems rocks are valuable. 

That's how I see it, and I'm stick'n to it!!

Offline Birdman

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Re: This is what I learned from my worst trade or purchase.
« Reply #26 on: April 12, 2016, 08:25:40 PM »
No major currency will ever be tied to gold or any other precious metal, anyone tries to sell you on that concept doesn't understand economics or is slick gold salesman.  If you are a government and you can either have unlimited rights to print money or limited right to print money, every time the government will choose unlimited right.  Second, having unlimited rights to print money provides the economy cushion to ride out cycles, so if a country ever does go to the gold standard, short that country, because once they experience any hiccup they will enter a financial crisis and the government will have no power to save the economy and eventually the will have to liquidate all their gold. 

All I know is gold and silver have been used as money from time immemorial. 

If it was good enough for Abraham, Solomon, David and the other greats of old...It is good enough for me. 

I don't need articles and books to tell tell me what is 'God's money.'  I know value when I see it, and thems rocks are valuable. 

That's how I see it, and I'm stick'n to it!!

I don't think anyone here is arguing that gold does not have value. Most of us on this forum are quite convinced of the opposite, which is why we invest in gold coins.   I think the point being made was that gold does have value, so if a government wants to spend money that it doesn't have, it will want to retain the power to print that money from worthless paper.  While the government will want to avoid the constraints associated with backing its currency with gold, the private citizen may be quite interested in holding gold.  They have different motivations.  But, we've strayed from the original topic of this thread  :001_smile:

My only suggestion? 

Read Jim Rickards new book: 'The New Case for Gold' and see the opposite view.

Let us know what you think after you read it. 

Oh, and he's not a slick gold salesman.  No skin in the game, if you will. 


Although I have not read this latest book, I have enjoyed some of Jim Rickards' previous comments.  He can tell a good story, and he has a satisfying and clear way of explaining things (although he does speak fast!).  It is true that he is not a gold salesman, but as one of his detractors points out, he is in the business of selling books, so he is not an entirely neutral observer to the discussion.  Having said that, I'm sure that I would agree with many things he says in the book. 

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: This is what I learned from my worst trade or purchase.
« Reply #27 on: April 12, 2016, 11:03:08 PM »
All I know is gold and silver have been used as money from time immemorial.  

If it was good enough for Abraham, Solomon, David and the other greats of old...It is good enough for me.  

I don't need articles and books to tell tell me what is 'God's money.'  I know value when I see it, and thems rocks are valuable.  

That's how I see it, and I'm stick'n to it!!

I know this forum eschews politics etc so I won't use specifics but in one of the debates of some years ago a presidential candidate remarked to the other that the US's war capability was not calculated in how many bows and arrows and horses they owned or something to that effect. Life moves on. I am sure that when the "Gold Standard" was removed by Nixon many people thought that it was the end of the World. Well, the erudite KeyDate' has spoken. Maybe he has to speak more. For me, ADAPTABILITY, has always been the key. This is a SUCCESS secret I am sharing, gratis  N40.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
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Offline polldav

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Re: This is what I learned from my worst trade or purchase.
« Reply #28 on: May 06, 2016, 01:00:14 PM »
When I first started buying pandas I bought an ungraded coin from a reputable seller on eBay for about $500. It turned out to be fake and luckily I was able to return it (maybe the seller really didn't know, maybe it was just basic business practice for him to refund anyone who complained because he made enough money off people who didn't, who knows).

After that I decided that I would never be expert enough to identify fake coins, so now if I buy anything I only buy NGC coins, and I use the NGC photos on the website to compare very closely with what I purchase both before and after I receive it. That way I can compare the coin, the holder, the way it's stored in there, and a lot of other things to make sure what I get is the same thing NGC thinks it graded.