Author Topic: New to buying pandas. Thinking of buying some from 2014-2016, but need input  (Read 5880 times)

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Offline christians86

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I started collecting in 2014, as this was the last year for the Panda with oz, and 2015 had nothing, while 2016 was metric I figured I could buy some from each yer to grade.
I have the 1 oz gold for 2014-2016, and silver 1 oz from each year. I have come across a seller that sells 5 oz proof - feedback is 1700 + on Ebay and have sold a lot of different Chinese coins. His offer is slightly better than buying from Apmex -40 usd per coin or something compared to Apmex price.
I'm thinking that buying a sheet with 3 x 5 oz from 2014 - 2015 and 2016 and holding on to them is a good idea. But is it? I realize that I should have bought years before 2010 when the mintage was quite lower, but is the 2014-2016 years a bad idea?

In Norway were I live the prices are higher for pandas compared to US, so I usually buy and import because of it. The seller also have 2 1 oz 2001 small "D" - but looking in NGC price guide I'm confused as to how to spot the difference as they list three different varieties of the small D alone..

Thanks for the help.

Offline Agpanda

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Hi, and welcome
Norway has no Vat on silver I think
You can get the last 2-3 years to decent price at:
silvertogo.com or ;http://goldsilver.be/en/126-panda

Offline christians86

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Hi, thanks for the reply. Unfortunately they didn't have any 5 oz, and the 2014-2016 was more expensive than what I paid for mine.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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I started collecting in 2014, as this was the last year for the Panda with oz, and 2015 had nothing, while 2016 was metric I figured I could buy some from each yer to grade.
I have the 1 oz gold for 2014-2016, and silver 1 oz from each year. I have come across a seller that sells 5 oz proof - feedback is 1700 + on Ebay and have sold a lot of different Chinese coins. His offer is slightly better than buying from Apmex -40 usd per coin or something compared to Apmex price.
I'm thinking that buying a sheet with 3 x 5 oz from 2014 - 2015 and 2016 and holding on to them is a good idea. But is it? I realize that I should have bought years before 2010 when the mintage was quite lower, but is the 2014-2016 years a bad idea?

In Norway were I live the prices are higher for pandas compared to US, so I usually buy and import because of it. The seller also have 2 1 oz 2001 small "D" - but looking in NGC price guide I'm confused as to how to spot the difference as they list three different varieties of the small D alone..

Thanks for the help.

Welcome to the forum. I hope you enjoy it here. There are lots of information in the CCF archives so look around because that will answer a lot of your questions and provide you with additional information.

One of the first questions you need to answer (privately) is whether you are a collector, investor, seller or a combination of these characterizations. This will help you to decide on what/when to buy and sell. You could also find that your characterization evolves over time as you gain more experience and specific interests.

It is my impression that new collectors tend to be defocussed and all-over-the-place initially, collecting any combination of coin types and series. For example, new collectors may buy silver panda coins, then gold coins, then lunar coins and/or any combination of cultural coins and medals across several metal types. That is fine; it may actually help you decide on what to focus on eventually. But you also waste money that way.

You could decide to build a series of 1oz (now 30g) silver panda coins initially. They are more affordable but could get pricey as you go back in the series to buy the earlier mintages. Check the archives for discussions on white spots on silver coins. 2016 provides an opportunity for newcomers to build sets more affordably in a prospective manner, instead of going back to collect the earlier years’ mintages, but these are now high mintage and decidedly bullion coins. The same strategy applies to gold coins. You can either buy the yearly 5-coin sets or the fractionals.

There is a belief that the pre-2010 Panda (invariably low mintage) coins provide more value than the newer (high) mintages.

As a new collector it may be more cost efficient and less frustrating to buy already graded coins.

When you buy silver coins, their weights add up quickly. Very soon you will need a forklift and other heavy machinery to move your stash! Gold coins are more portable and stable but their percentage price increase tends to be less and slower than that of silver coins (which doesn’t mean that silver coins are better and more stable investments, but this is a complex topic).

There are reliable eBay sellers who can ship to Norway but there are sharks out there too!

This should be enough for you to chew on for now. There may be additional forum member input and opinions vary.

Welcome again and Best wishes.
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Offline christians86

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Thank you for the reply,may I ask what your take is on the 5 oz silver? I can get 2014, 2015 and 2016 at average 290 USD inc freight per coin. I expect to grade them all, and sell keep the 70 my self. I also think that its only the 2014-2016 I'm interested in, and might continue from 2016 and forward, but not going backwards as its to many pitfalls for me there with the prices.

But for now I'm most wondering if the 2014-2016 strategy will pay off, and the 5 oz silvers.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Thank you for the reply,may I ask what your take is on the 5 oz silver? I can get 2014, 2015 and 2016 at average 290 USD inc freight per coin. I expect to grade them all, and sell keep the 70 my self. I also think that its only the 2014-2016 I'm interested in, and might continue from 2016 and forward, but not going backwards as its to many pitfalls for me there with the prices.

But for now I'm most wondering if the 2014-2016 strategy will pay off, and the 5 oz silvers.

I have some of the 5oz coins and medals but I don't know if I am going to continue collecting them from 2016 onwards. I haven't decided.

As a collector it is the personal attraction that matters; they are large and good to look at and show others.

I don't have an authoritative view on their investment potential. They are proof coins and MS70 could improve your chances of selling later at a profit but could you do better with other silver and gold coins? Could you, for example, spend this money on pre-2010 1/10oz MS69 gold panda coins?

You need more research in this area.

Goodluck.

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Offline christians86

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I decided to hold of the money for 5 oz for now as I came across the possibility to buy two 10 sheets of 2001D 10 YUAN Panda. It will cost me a bit, but I think I will go for grading with conservation and hope for some MS70.

Offline silverpv

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I decided to hold of the money for 5 oz for now as I came across the possibility to buy two 10 sheets of 2001D 10 YUAN Panda. It will cost me a bit, but I think I will go for grading with conservation and hope for some MS70.

I think in this is a much better play for the money. The 5oz is not very popular which may or may not be a good thing down the road. The 2001 D will always have some demand.

Offline christians86

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I got a offer from the same seller on these:

2004 1 oz 10 Yuan Silver Panda BU Sheet of 10 coins $1200
2005 1 oz 10 Yuan  Silver Panda BU Sheet of 10 coins $1000
1997 1 oz 10 Yuan  Silver Panda BU Sheet of 10 coins $1000
1996 1 oz 10 Yuan  Silver Panda Beijing Coin Expo BU Sheet of 10 with COAs $2300
1989 1 oz 10 Yuan  Silver Panda Proof New York Coin show Sheet of 10 coins w COAs $2000
1996 1 oz 10 Yuan  Silver Proof Unicorn Sheet of 10 coins w/COAs $2100
 
1989 1 oz 10 Yuan  Silver Panda Proof Sheet of 10 coins w COAs $1500
1990 1 oz 10 Yuan  Silver Panda Proof Sheet of 10 coins w COAs $1900
1992 1 oz 10 Yuan  Silver Panda Proof Sheet of 10 coins NO COAs $3500
1993 2/3 oz 10 Yuan Flower Shaped Lunar Year of Rooster w/COAs Sheet of 10 coin $6500
1999 2/3 oz 10 Yuan Flower Shaped Lunar Year of Rabbit w/COAs Sheet of 10 coin $3100
2001 1 oz 10 Yuan Flower Shaped Lunar Year of Snake w/COAs Sheet of 10 coin $1900
2004 1 oz 10 Yuan Flower Shaped Lunar Year of Monkey w/COAs Sheet of 10 coin $3400


Which ones should I prioritize? I'm thinking of the Unicorn, 1990 proof and 2005 normal panda or 2001 panda (As I now have 10 x 2001D and 2x2001d (small d)). Any suggestions?  The prices seems to me quite steep, even for 10 coins, but some of them are never seen in Norway.

Offline mowi

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Hi and welcome to the forum. This is a great place for gaining knowledge and buying/selling/trading coins.

I'm a collector of MCC based in Oslo. It's great to see another Norwegian based collector here.
Make sure to take full advantage of the fact that Norway do not have any VAT on silver coins with nominal value as well as stamps, notes and coins for collecting purposes.

Good luck!

Offline christians86

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Thanks :)

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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I got a offer from the same seller on these:

2004 1 oz 10 Yuan Silver Panda BU Sheet of 10 coins $1200
2005 1 oz 10 Yuan  Silver Panda BU Sheet of 10 coins $1000
1997 1 oz 10 Yuan  Silver Panda BU Sheet of 10 coins $1000
1996 1 oz 10 Yuan  Silver Panda Beijing Coin Expo BU Sheet of 10 with COAs $2300
1989 1 oz 10 Yuan  Silver Panda Proof New York Coin show Sheet of 10 coins w COAs $2000
1996 1 oz 10 Yuan  Silver Proof Unicorn Sheet of 10 coins w/COAs $2100
 
1989 1 oz 10 Yuan  Silver Panda Proof Sheet of 10 coins w COAs $1500
1990 1 oz 10 Yuan  Silver Panda Proof Sheet of 10 coins w COAs $1900
1992 1 oz 10 Yuan  Silver Panda Proof Sheet of 10 coins NO COAs $3500
1993 2/3 oz 10 Yuan Flower Shaped Lunar Year of Rooster w/COAs Sheet of 10 coin $6500
1999 2/3 oz 10 Yuan Flower Shaped Lunar Year of Rabbit w/COAs Sheet of 10 coin $3100
2001 1 oz 10 Yuan Flower Shaped Lunar Year of Snake w/COAs Sheet of 10 coin $1900
2004 1 oz 10 Yuan Flower Shaped Lunar Year of Monkey w/COAs Sheet of 10 coin $3400


Which ones should I prioritize? I'm thinking of the Unicorn, 1990 proof and 2005 normal panda or 2001 panda (As I now have 10 x 2001D and 2x2001d (small d)). Any suggestions?  The prices seems to me quite steep, even for 10 coins, but some of them are never seen in Norway.

Seems like you are a collector/investor at the minimum. A few thoughts:

The larger the customer base the greater the chances of selling your coins and for an improved profit margin. Therefore the regular issue panda coins are your best bet. But your local conditions may be different.

Is your seller leaving enough cash on the table for you? In other words what is your expected return on investment?

Case Study: 1989 1 oz 10 Yuan  Silver Panda Proof Sheet of 10 coins w COAs $1500 plus grading fee, shipment etc (@$32 = $320). Total cost = $1820. How many PF70s to expect = zero. How many PF69s = 5 (2-5) @$200, 68s = 3 (1-5) @$100, 67s or less =2 (1-5) @$80. How much profit to make? Best case scenario versus worst case? Very speculative!

What is your local market going to pay you for OMPs versus Graded coins?

Is it better to just buy and keep the sheets until the profit margin outlook improves?

Is it better to buy new issue 30g silver panda coin trays, store for 2-3 years or more, and then sell? Because most of the coins you listed have already run up their prices and profit margins are either razor thin or non-existent.

Suppose all your apparently pristine coins develop white spots after grading? The unit sale price = $20-30 per slabbed (NOW BULLION) coin!

How about testing the waters with just one sheet and building up your volume based on your experience?
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Offline christians86

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Thanks for the input...I considered instead going for 5 of each, and take those who is rarest to find in Norway at least. I have 12 now, I will send them for grading and conservation - might be overkill, but never the less.

But if I were to take 5 of each, I'm wondering about Unicorn 1996, which I can't find have ever been seen were I live. And 5 of the 2001/2005 and proof 1990.
I have bought 20 2014, 45 2015 and 45 2016 already with the plan to store them. (Apparently its much cheaper to buy in countries with VAT since the premiums are lower there for some reason)

To hard start?

edit: I already plan with very worst case scenario when I bid, but I expect to a degree that conservation will help me, and the plan for most of these coins as with the graded morgans that I have is to keep them for x > 10 years if that helps :)

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Thanks for the input...I considered instead going for 5 of each, and take those who is rarest to find in Norway at least. I have 12 now, I will send them for grading and conservation - might be overkill, but never the less.

But if I were to take 5 of each, I'm wondering about Unicorn 1996, which I can't find have ever been seen were I live. And 5 of the 2001/2005 and proof 1990.
I have bought 20 2014, 45 2015 and 45 2016 already with the plan to store them. (Apparently its much cheaper to buy in countries with VAT since the premiums are lower there for some reason)

To hard start?

edit: I already plan with very worst case scenario when I bid, but I expect to a degree that conservation will help me, and the plan for most of these coins as with the graded morgans that I have is to keep them for x > 10 years if that helps :)

I don't really have any criticism of what you are doing since there are several approaches to coin collection and investments. Most of us have to learn by experience and I hope yours will be good.

One thing you have to look into is whether the fact that certain coins are not found in your locality means that when you supply them people will buy them up immediately. Do a quick market survey. Find out if you can line up customers now even before you purchase the coins. Just to make sure they are sellable and can be offloaded quickly.

Again, best wishes for success in your endeavors.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline silverpv

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Thanks for the input...I considered instead going for 5 of each, and take those who is rarest to find in Norway at least. I have 12 now, I will send them for grading and conservation - might be overkill, but never the less.

But if I were to take 5 of each, I'm wondering about Unicorn 1996, which I can't find have ever been seen were I live. And 5 of the 2001/2005 and proof 1990.
I have bought 20 2014, 45 2015 and 45 2016 already with the plan to store them. (Apparently its much cheaper to buy in countries with VAT since the premiums are lower there for some reason)

To hard start?

edit: I already plan with very worst case scenario when I bid, but I expect to a degree that conservation will help me, and the plan for most of these coins as with the graded morgans that I have is to keep them for x > 10 years if that helps :)

If you are keeping them 10 years and asking for advice now. Anything you choose will be 'right'. We can't predict what will do best that far out. Sounds to me like you have a solid understanding of what you want to do. I would just stick to your plan. Also, on older pandas, I do the NCS+NGC on all coins, for $11 more its worth it for me. I doubt it is overkill! Getting the rarest is one of those propositions that is tricky. You can have something super rare, but not very liquid. At that point, its a personal preference and a judgement call on the coin. Your local market or personal taste will let you know.

Personally, I stay with the more common type of rare panda because as mentioned it has a wider market which could change in 10 years.