Author Topic: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC  (Read 32005 times)

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Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #15 on: August 30, 2015, 02:12:03 PM »
The seller of the set was an investor who is not on this forum.  I sold him the set for $2K a few months before he flipped it for $25K, he would have gladly sold it for $100K if he could, he was an investor and didn't really care for the coins, he bought and sold anything that he could make money on.  After selling the set for $25K he bought another one for $12K, believing $25K price was a true market price.  Now he is totally out of Chinese coins, and that PF69 set he bought for $12K, he sold last year for around $2.5K.   In my opinion the seller did nothing wrong, when the set was hot he didn't want to sell it cheap, but finally got an offer he couldn't refuse and sold. Years latter when he wanted to sell, he got offers from several of us and sold to the highest bidder even though it was an 80% loss, this was the high volatility game he signed up to play and had experienced it many times before in other markets.  When markets are spiking sellers are scared to sell too cheap, when markets are crashing buyers are scared to catch a falling knife, the key to remember is when prices are going up Seller are in control, when prices are going down Buyers are in control.

The real culprit in the mispricing of this set back then was this forum and some of its members.  Several members promoted the sets like they were the must own coins and super rare, back then only <10x PF69 sets existed so they were rare in PF69 but many sets were still on the sideline in capsules.  The pump was on and several new collectors without the benefit of experience took a bite at the high/crazy prices.  Same thing happened with God of Wealth 3.3oz silver coin with all its variations, a coin that was available in bulk at $120 6-9 months prior was suddenly selling for $2000 and new collectors were buying hand over fist. 

As popo says buying coins with high numismatic premium are the riskiest, because the downside is melt when liquidity dries up.  If given the choice to OWN (not buy and sell) 1oz silver coin or 1/10 oz gold coin both with similar survival numbers for $180, I always buy the 1/10 oz gold, because my downside is smaller if numismatic premium disappears some day.  Also, my profit margin on medals with high numismatic premiums (which I don't collect) is 5x-10x higher than on gold pandas (which I collect heavily), I like to own gold pandas so I pay up to buy them, I don't like to own medals because of lower liquidity my bids are rock bottom prices, so when I do get medals the profits are super high because the seller is forcing me to give them a bid rather than me seeking them out. 

In the end the buyer is responsible for their purchases, because the items we deal in are all very hard to replace quickly, so each transaction is really unique for most coins from 1979-2010.   The best example of this is the 1992 gold panda proof set in PF69 or PR69 condition.  I have consistently owned 50%+ of the possible sets available since 2008, and if you wanted to buy one from me in 2008-2010, you had to offer 2x-3x times the market price for me to even consider selling one, because I knew how hard they are to replace, especially the 1/4 and 1 oz in PF69.  In 2011 the set finally got to a reasonable price in my opinion $25K, at that point I was willing to sell at the market price.  If you had bought from me a PF69 set in 2009 for $15k when omp sets were only $4k, and assuming the set never spiked to $25K, the buyer can't blame me for over charging them in 2009, because in my mind the set's potential value was $15K at the time and I knew if I sold it, I most likely would not be able to replace it, despite being able to buy omp sets for $4K (send in 5x omp sets and you may get one PF69 set).

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #16 on: August 30, 2015, 02:16:17 PM »
There is nothing unfair about a transaction that includes a willing buyer and seller. Buyers at the 25k range in a rising market are speculating. Sometimes it works to your advantage, sometimes not.

A seller should have no shame selling coin X into a rising market. It is not a seller's job to counsel a potential buyer or hold his/her hand. A seller's job is simply to offer product to the marketplace. The buyer must decide whether circumstances are right to purchase said item.

Take, for example, that seller on eBay who has ludicrously high prices for his hundreds of gold pandas and who almost never sells a thing. Au3000 maybe? If a newbie "buys it now" and overpays for a coin that has been continuously listed and relisted for years, is it the seller's fault? Is the seller responsible for the buyer's decision-making?

No.

barsenault

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Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #17 on: August 30, 2015, 02:19:51 PM »
Wow.  Very helpful insights.  Thanks for sharing.  I'm still learning the ropes.  And the key for me is what you said about a 1 oz silver vs 1/10 oz gold for 180.00.  That piece of advice is worth it's weight in gold.  Thank you.  The one thing I'm thankful for is having folks to bounce ideas off, and they've saved me from a lot of heartache.  You know who you are.  #thankyou!!  If the silver to gold ratio weren't so dang high, I'd be buying gold too...bullion that is...which is not the subject of this forum. LOL.  Thanks again for the history lesson Arif.

barsenault

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Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2015, 02:24:56 PM »
Perhaps Mirk, but within this family of believers I'd expect a different level of transparency, openness, disclosure and guidance.  But as Arif said, they weren't on this forum. Nuf said. But yes, in the end, buyer is responsible.  The buck stops with them. 

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #19 on: August 30, 2015, 04:04:32 PM »
When I bought the XIE set, I spoke with several of you on this site. A few of you said, are you sure? Even the seller said, are you sure you want to buy it for 2.6k.  I wrestled with it, and decided to roll the dice.   

Are you referred to XIE set the same as the following auction?

http://www.stacksbowers.com/BrowseAuctions/LotArchive/tabid/805/ProductID/906385/AuctionID/6106/Lot/53592/Default.aspx

Price realized: $1195 for NGC 69, 3 sets, copper, brass and silver.



barsenault

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Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #20 on: August 30, 2015, 04:34:46 PM »
Wrong link. XIE classical garden. Thanks.  If you can find me a set of PF69 for 1200, I'm a buyer. PM, please.

andrewlee10

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Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #21 on: August 30, 2015, 09:06:45 PM »
Wrong link. XIE classical garden. Thanks.  If you can find me a set of PF69 for 1200, I'm a buyer. PM, please.

I might need one set too if pf69 at 1.2k

andrewlee10

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Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #22 on: August 30, 2015, 09:12:55 PM »
There is nothing unfair about a transaction that includes a willing buyer and seller. Buyers at the 25k range in a rising market are speculating. Sometimes it works to your advantage, sometimes not.

A seller should have no shame selling coin X into a rising market. It is not a seller's job to counsel a potential buyer or hold his/her hand. A seller's job is simply to offer product to the marketplace. The buyer must decide whether circumstances are right to purchase said item.

Take, for example, that seller on eBay who has ludicrously high prices for his hundreds of gold pandas and who almost never sells a thing. Au3000 maybe? If a newbie "buys it now" and overpays for a coin that has been continuously listed and relisted for years, is it the seller's fault? Is the seller responsible for the buyer's decision-making?

No.


Totally agree willing buyer and willing seller.  Buyer must do all job before decision. There is no guarantee investment to gain and profit all times. I remember someone keep mentioning no bump and dump in this forum.

When a coin at peak selling price and I say I have some for sell and it is good. Does this constitute bump and dump ? I am trying to learn the norm here.

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #23 on: August 30, 2015, 09:20:52 PM »
When a coin at peak selling price and I say I have some for sell and it is good. Does this constitute bump and dump ? I am trying to learn the norm here.

Forum members expect disclosure: a level of truth in one's motives and holdings. If you are the producer of a coin or series, say so if trying to sell here. If you have 5 of coin X and you are trying to sell them, say so. If you are purposefully misleading or deceiving members here, you will not be looked favorably upon.

Integrity above profit at CCF, at least that is what we strive for.

Oh yeah, and to say a coin is "good" is simply an opinion. I do not have a problem with this, however, please refrain from behavior designed to artificially inflate prices.

barsenault

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Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #24 on: August 30, 2015, 09:40:01 PM »
I'm new to to this forum, and the ways and rules of the pros of this site, but for disclosure sake, when Arif was selling his 60 sets of this and 40 sets of that, and 80 sets of this (back in the day), were they being sold on this site (don't remember exact numbers - just giving approximate numbers)?  And was it disclosed that he had that many in his possession at the time of selling?  Curious minds would like to know.  I know mine would!

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #25 on: August 30, 2015, 09:49:38 PM »
I'm new to to this forum, and the ways and rules of the pros of this site, but for disclosure sake, when Arif was selling his 60 sets of this and 40 sets of that, and 80 sets of this (back in the day), were they being sold on this site (don't remember exact numbers - just giving approximate numbers)?  And was it disclosed that he had that many in his possession at the time of selling?  Curious minds would like to know.  I know mine would!

As you can see by Arif's "trade count," half of which are sales to me within the past 18 months or so, he is not selling his coins on this site. He has his own webpage where he sells. His business is not conducted through this forum, not now anyway. I have not been around long enough to tell you about many years past. Arif comes here to drop knowledge and insight that makes us all more informed buyers and sellers.

barsenault

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Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #26 on: August 30, 2015, 09:58:21 PM »
Got it. Thanks much.  Hopefully the standard by which you are challenging Andrew to abide by, is what the other veterans of this site have been following, and will continue to follow.  Because a double standard is a no, no, as you well know.  Thanks for the info. 

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #27 on: August 30, 2015, 10:06:02 PM »
Please do not mistake my post above as a challenge to Andrew. He asked an honest question, and based on my years here, I gave the answer I feel represents the majority of members opinions.

AND as for whether base metal MCC will outperform PM MCC, the OP may be right in some instances, but I feel there will be many medals and medal series' that flop hard. Only time will tell if, in the end, they experience price gains similar to what we have seen in the past decade for MCC made of gold and silver

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #28 on: August 30, 2015, 10:09:44 PM »
In the end the buyer is responsible for their purchases, because the items we deal in are all very hard to replace quickly, so each transaction is really unique for most coins from 1979-2010.   The best example of this is the 1992 gold panda proof set in PF69 or PR69 condition.  I have consistently owned 50%+ of the possible sets available since 2008, and if you wanted to buy one from me in 2008-2010, you had to offer 2x-3x times the market price for me to even consider selling one, because I knew how hard they are to replace, especially the 1/4 and 1 oz in PF69.  In 2011 the set finally got to a reasonable price in my opinion $25K, at that point I was willing to sell at the market price.  If you had bought from me a PF69 set in 2009 for $15k when omp sets were only $4k, and assuming the set never spiked to $25K, the buyer can't blame me for over charging them in 2009, because in my mind the set's potential value was $15K at the time and I knew if I sold it, I most likely would not be able to replace it, despite being able to buy omp sets for $4K (send in 5x omp sets and you may get one PF69 set).


Arif runs a coin business. It is certainly meant to make him a profit and I cannot imagine that any of his customers are unaware of that. He sets a price that reflects his views of the specific coins, the overall market and his expectations of the future. If someone doesn't agree with his prices they can try someplace else. He is a good businessman and has my respect for this. To the best of my knowledge he has never offered coins for sale on the forum. My experience with him is that if you ask him an intelligent question you will receive an intelligent answer in return. I always look forward to having a conversation with Arif just as I enjoy reading his posts on the CCF.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

barsenault

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Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #29 on: August 30, 2015, 10:12:19 PM »
lol.  I didn't mean 'challenge' to mean harshness. I just meant that hopefully everyone abides by this request, and that some veterans don't think they're 'above the law.'  Not sure what would gave me that crazy idea, as I'm sure everyone who sells on this site lives by the highest standards of ethics.   Thanks Mirk.

p.s. I have no one person in mind. My comment about Arif was referring to his recent post where he mentioned all the medals he had and I believe he said he sold.  Kudos to him. I was just curious if he sold on this site.  Question answered.  Thanks much.  Oh, and I too appreciate the knowledge he shares.  It's very helpful!  Thanks Arif.