Author Topic: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC  (Read 27691 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline davidt3251

  • Trade Count: (+6)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 504
  • Karma: 5
Based on my thoughts posted on another forum...

I believe we're entering into a protracted period when PMs will remain weak. This weakness in especially gold and silver will continue to weigh on the MCC market. In the past, drops in gold and silver would affect the entire MCC market by weakening sentiment because sellers try to increase numismatic premium to sell their MCC without a loss. This creates an abundance of 'whale listings' on ebay for example.

But when I remind myself there is an entire MCC industry that is forging ahead, the only logical conclusion is that Copper/Brass/Bronze coins and medals will be on the rise, filling the gap created by MCC from PMs that have unrealistic numismatic premiums.

What we may be seeing is the early stages of the Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC market. Perhaps by necessity, the mints minted small quantities of certain copper and brass Nanjing medals and Classic Garden Series medals. But what if this turns out to be the start of the Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC market rally?

I think that with deflation caused by low oil (the largest traded commodity on the planet) it feeds into weak gold. Remember some oil producers love to buy US Treasuries and gold. The Saudis are borrowing like crazy, for example, as their government budgets have been ballooning under expensive oil. Less money to buy gold now.

With deflation and gold under pressure, the entire MCC market can play the numismatic premium game without the annoyance of volatile gold and silver. If someone bought gold MCC at the top, a 1oz gold Panda has lost about $800 of gold premium that is being added to numismatic premium when they sell.

For example lets say a 1997 1oz in 69 sold for $2700 with gold at $1900 and a numismatic premium of $800, now it should be a $1900 item. Thats what the August Pricepedia shows for a 1997 1oz SD or LD Panda in 69.

But the seller would be underwater at $1900, so the seller marks up the numismatic premium by $800 to try and get $2700, a 'whale price'. Items like these very rarely sell. The seller has increased the numismatic premium from $800 to $1600. In reality anything over a $800 numismatic premium is a gain for the seller and a loss for the buyer but the underwater seller doesn't see it that way, he wants a 100% increase in the numismatic premium, $800 to $1600. Noone would buy this item.

But lets say there's a new MCC art collector looking at he 1997 and he sees that numismatic premium, both the original $800 and the new $1600.

Then he looks at a brass baby panda. Now imagine a fraction of an increase for a brass baby panda. If you buy it for $160 from Lucky, lets say its $150 in numismatic premium and $10 in metals (I know the mint wouldn't agree as they have fabrication costs, but this is purely from the buyers perspective on base metal content which is what buyers do with silver and gold content). So if the gold panda seller of a fairly common 1997 1oz has marked up the numismatic premium $1600, then all the buyer has to do is look at the brass baby panda for example, and allocate just a fraction of the new premium-say 10% of the new (unrealistic) $1600 1997 panda premium or 20% of the original $800 numismatic premium on the 1997 (based on August Pricepedia)-and the baby panda would be $10 metal content+$150 original premium + $160 new premium based on demand = new price of $320. The price has doubled using only 20% of the original numismatic premium in the 1997 1oz.

I'm going to argue the tiny value of the metal content ($10) creates PURE NUMISMATIC PREMIUM on the upside for Copper/Brass/Bronze. Who doesn't want that?

This is also a deflation play. Buyers dont need to spend as much money to participate in MCC with PURE NUMISMATIC PREMIUM. $160 will do, and its conceivable that the 2014 brass could one day have an $800 numismatic premium, just like the 1997 panda, *but without the downside risk of precious metals weakness that gold, and to a lesser extent silver, MCC have*.

In the current market with weak PM conditions, Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC are MCC derisked by removing volatile and weak PMs from their performance. Everyone who ever made money or wanted to make money in MCC from rising numismatic premiums needs to be in Copper/Brass/Bronze for PURE NUMISMATIC PREMIUM upside.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 885
  • Karma: 199
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2015, 02:29:16 AM »
Great post David and you are correct that purely numismatic medals will out perform most PM tied coins.  The challenge I have is liquidity for medals, if I buy 20x medals at $160/each and hold them for some time until the price gets to $320/each, I may only be able to sell 1-5 at the $320 price, the rest I may have to wait a long time to find a buyer, because very few people collect those medals.  On the other hand, if I buy 20x 1991 1oz silver pandas NGC MS69 at the same $160 and after some time they go up to $240 (half the return of medal), I can sell the entire lot without any effort at the new price, because many people collect silver pandas.  

From my point of view, if one is a small time investor, <$2K-$4K of available funds, then you are correct buying non-gold or silver medals maybe the best option to achieve the best return, because you are primarily investing in numismatic premium, but if you are medium size investor, $10k-$100K then the liquidity risk or the lack of ability to sell large lots at a new market price without cratering the market is too high to justify reaching for that higher return.   Personally I value liquidity more highly than price appreciation, so medals have been off the table for me, unless someone wants to dump on me at a great price that I can easily resell to other dealers quickly, because I simply don't have manpower to sell coins one off to achieve the best returns.  

Finally, another angle on the liquidity risk is type of collector base that exist for purely numismatic medals, which are primarily collectors.  What is the problem with having only collectors collect? Simply, if I get 100 medals graded, the PF69 and PF70 will sell nicely at a decent profit in small odd lot transactions to say 20-50 different collectors over a reasonably long period of time, but the PF67-68 or even PF69 with eye appeal issues they are dead, no buyers at any price (I have been there and it is painful), while coins tied to PM at least have their PM value to fall back on if they grade poorly or they grade fine today but later develop ugly toning/spotting.  

While I agree that purely numismatic items will out perform PM tied items over the next few years, the problem is these purely numismatic items have much greater liquidity risks compared to PM tied items, and that is why many more collectors, investors and dealers prefer PM tied items even with lower expected return.  

In essence what you are saying is taking more risk (buying purely numismatic coins) will lead to higher return, agreed - that is the basis of investment finance.  

andrewlee10

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2015, 04:45:40 AM »
Great post David and you are correct that purely numismatic medals will out perform most PM tied coins.  The challenge I have is liquidity for medals, if I buy 20x medals at $160/each and hold them for some time until the price gets to $320/each, I may only be able to sell 1-5 at the $320 price, the rest I may have to wait a long time to find a buyer, because very few people collect those medals.  On the other hand, if I buy 20x 1991 1oz silver pandas NGC MS69 at the same $160 and after some time they go up to $240 (half the return of medal), I can sell the entire lot without any effort at the new price, because many people collect silver pandas. 

From my point of view, if one is a small time investor, <$2K-$4K of available funds, then you are correct buying non-gold or silver medals maybe the best option to achieve the best return, because you are primarily investing in numismatic premium, but if you are medium size investor, $10k-$100K then the liquidity risk or the lack of ability to sell large lots at a new market price without cratering the market is too high to justify reaching for that higher return.   Personally I value liquidity more highly than price appreciation, so medals have been off the table for me, unless someone wants to dump on me at a great price that I can easily resell to other dealers quickly, because I simply don't have manpower to sell coins one off to achieve the best returns. 

Finally, another angle on the liquidity risk is type of collector base that exist for purely numismatic medals, which are primarily collectors.  What is the problem with having only collectors collect? Simply, if I get 100 medals graded, the PF69 and PF70 will sell nicely at a decent profit in small odd lot transactions to say 20-50 different collectors over a reasonably long period of time, but the PF67-68 or even PF69 with eye appeal issues they are dead, no buyers at any price (I have been there and it is painful), while coins tied to PM at least have their PM value to fall back on if they grade poorly or they grade fine today but later develop ugly toning/spotting.   

While I agree that purely numismatic items will out perform PM tied items over the next few years, the problem is these purely numismatic items have much greater liquidity risks compared to PM tied items, and that is why many more collectors, investors and dealers prefer PM tied items even with lower expected return. 

In essence what you are saying is taking more risk (buying purely numismatic coins) will lead to higher return, agreed - that is the basis of investment finance. 

Good say. Generally, fiat money (notes and coins) have more collectors and demand than non-fiat money (medal) regardless of type of metal.

Fiat money have ready market and collectors which Non-fiat collector base is much smaller. In additional, many new collectors believe fiat which is government backed BUT medal not. Same mints produce both fiat and non-fiat BUT collector still trust in fiat.

China coin (fiat) will not has high relief like medal which both have diff styles. I collect both fiat and non-fiat. However, I invest and sell non-fiat which is niche market. However, I did invest and sell fiat BUT less portion on it in term of quantity. China modern coins price up and down too fast so replacement cost is an issue except you are full time coin dealers who have more capital and time. The competition of fiat also high for new seller. Ebay selling price is unnaturally high (MCC except panda) for certain ebay famous sellers due to high ebay cost and other reason. Ebay has no good entry point for new seller especially you feedback is not many and 100%. It is not easy for you to sell high value items if you are new ebay seller. This is my experience as part time seller which might be diff with others. Regular customers buy off ebay and internal circle are more approachable for my case. 



barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2015, 09:54:16 AM »
David, you mean to tell me, Mr. Sinclair's call for $50,000 gold is proposterous??  N66:thumbup:  :lol: N8  :001_tt2:

Recorded a couple days ago.
http://youtu.be/u7tTdO6oxUA

Offline davidt3251

  • Trade Count: (+6)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 504
  • Karma: 5
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2015, 07:11:34 PM »
Great post David and you are correct that purely numismatic medals will out perform most PM tied coins.  The challenge I have is liquidity for medals, if I buy 20x medals at $160/each and hold them for some time until the price gets to $320/each, I may only be able to sell 1-5 at the $320 price, the rest I may have to wait a long time to find a buyer, because very few people collect those medals.  On the other hand, if I buy 20x 1991 1oz silver pandas NGC MS69 at the same $160 and after some time they go up to $240 (half the return of medal), I can sell the entire lot without any effort at the new price, because many people collect silver pandas. 

From my point of view, if one is a small time investor, <$2K-$4K of available funds, then you are correct buying non-gold or silver medals maybe the best option to achieve the best return, because you are primarily investing in numismatic premium, but if you are medium size investor, $10k-$100K then the liquidity risk or the lack of ability to sell large lots at a new market price without cratering the market is too high to justify reaching for that higher return.   Personally I value liquidity more highly than price appreciation, so medals have been off the table for me, unless someone wants to dump on me at a great price that I can easily resell to other dealers quickly, because I simply don't have manpower to sell coins one off to achieve the best returns. 

Finally, another angle on the liquidity risk is type of collector base that exist for purely numismatic medals, which are primarily collectors.  What is the problem with having only collectors collect? Simply, if I get 100 medals graded, the PF69 and PF70 will sell nicely at a decent profit in small odd lot transactions to say 20-50 different collectors over a reasonably long period of time, but the PF67-68 or even PF69 with eye appeal issues they are dead, no buyers at any price (I have been there and it is painful), while coins tied to PM at least have their PM value to fall back on if they grade poorly or they grade fine today but later develop ugly toning/spotting.   

While I agree that purely numismatic items will out perform PM tied items over the next few years, the problem is these purely numismatic items have much greater liquidity risks compared to PM tied items, and that is why many more collectors, investors and dealers prefer PM tied items even with lower expected return. 

In essence what you are saying is taking more risk (buying purely numismatic coins) will lead to higher return, agreed - that is the basis of investment finance. 

Hi Arif

Thanks for that. Yes, I agree. Liquidity would currently be a problem for a dealer, and I should have noted that my perspective was from an individual.

That said, people collect because they like an item and to make money. So if enough good designs come out among base medal (BM MCC) or if a profit is made from BM MCC or even if PM MCC become more volatile/weak increasing the relative attractiveness of BM MCC, the liquidity could change for dealers.

But PM MCC liquidity while it is there may not reflect a numismatic premium. For example, my wife bought gold panda prof sets with a numismatic premium on top (but when spot gold was lower (as you know I had bought some MCC for her portfolio). My wife is starting a business this fall and last week she sold two sets of 1.9oz gold proof panda sets ungraded for $2200 each. Gold was over $1150 at the time. The sets included box, COA. The gold content was 1.9x$1150=$1185, leaving $15 for box, COA and shipping. I suppose there is liquidity but at rock bottom prices (ie zero numismatic premium). After shipping to the dealer she sold to, the net value was below the spot price of gold. The reason we sold to a dealer was that selling through ebay, after ebay and Paypal fees, resulted in a net value farther below spot. The additional problem is that Paypal requires us to transfer USD to CAD inside Paypal at horrible rates compared to getting a USD wire from a dealer and converting ourselves at a specialty Forex shop.

So its a bit unnerving to see the proof panda sets lose their numismatic premium that was there before. To me, that speaks to a kind of liquidity problem also.

So yes, BM MCC could be problematic on the liquidity front but PM MCC haven't escaped unscathed, in addition to losing on the spot price of gold for example (a big loss the past few years) the numismatic premium is also gone.

That can happen with BM MCC I suppose, but as the values are lower, the hit to the pocketbook (at least for a collector) might be less.

Cheers

davidt3251

Offline davidt3251

  • Trade Count: (+6)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 504
  • Karma: 5
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2015, 07:16:06 PM »
David, you mean to tell me, Mr. Sinclair's call for $50,000 gold is proposterous??  N66:thumbup:  :lol: N8  :001_tt2:

Recorded a couple days ago.
http://youtu.be/u7tTdO6oxUA

HI barsenault,

I used to read Jim regularly. I stopped when his price targets, based on French Curves (IIRC) didn't pan out.

I don't know if I want to live in a world of $50,000/oz gold. In such a world, I imagine food, medicine, alcohol and ammo would be good investments as well, albeit with possibly a bit less confiscation risk.

I could put a higher probability on $5,000/oz gold though.

Cheers

davidt3251

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 885
  • Karma: 199
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #6 on: August 29, 2015, 01:32:45 AM »
I think it would be foolish to root for $50,000/oz gold.  That would imply the world's greatest economy and currency would have debased by a factor of 40x from current levels.  A happy meal at Mcdonalds would be selling for $200, a gallon of gas $100, this would be very dark times for everyone, including those that own gold, because everyone around you will be fighting for survival.  A nice steady rise in the price of the gold similar to 1999-2008 is the best back drop one could hope for.  Also, great prosperity for the America, Europe and Asia are in the best interest of owners of numismatic coins, rooting for a country or continent to collapse in this highly connected world economy is bad for everyone.   

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #7 on: August 29, 2015, 06:57:52 AM »
I concur, and agree with you both David and KEYDATEPANDA.  I was a little tongue and cheek about the 50K gold priced.  Unfortunately, there are some psychos rooting for such measures, because they are clueless as to what that means for the world...or, perhaps they are psycho because they are hoping this scenario plays out for the world??  Who knows.  Dan Norcini is a another analyst who calls these folks kooks, who wish for 50K gold.  The world would not be a fun place to live.  I don't wish this upon anyone.  And I hope to God no one else does either. 

Offline pandamonium

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2103
  • Karma: 28
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #8 on: August 29, 2015, 07:22:20 AM »
Not all are psychos.   Some are very intelligent people that are warning us of forces against the USD.   I hope $50k oz gold does not happen but the World financial markets are going out of whack again as it did in 2009.   All we can do is educate ourselves, hope for the best and be ready.......

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #9 on: August 29, 2015, 07:32:33 AM »
Yeah, I guess a rephrase is in order.  To hope for 50K gold, is nuts.  To have some as protection against such times, is prudent.

Offline poconopenn

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+7)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2643
  • Karma: 226
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #10 on: August 29, 2015, 09:49:54 PM »
Just a friendly advice.

Unless you are an experienced, knowledgeable coin/medal collector, with as much or more knowledge than your numismatic dealer possesses, investing in "numismatics premium" is a high-risk proposition.

If you want to invest in numismatic premium, learning as much as you can about coins/medals and about the dealers you do business with. Just remember, most profit earned by dealers is from numismatic premium, not the cost of metal.

Offline Birdman

  • Supporter
  • Global Moderator
  • Trade Count: (+19)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1882
  • Karma: 137
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #11 on: August 30, 2015, 08:27:19 AM »
Just a friendly advice.

Unless you are an experienced, knowledgeable coin/medal collector, with as much or more knowledge than your numismatic dealer possesses, investing in "numismatics premium" is a high-risk proposition.

If you want to invest in numismatic premium, learning as much as you can about coins/medals and about the dealers you do business with. Just remember, most profit earned by dealers is from numismatic premium, not the cost of metal.


Wise advice. Some numismatic items can be quite profitable...for the dealer or manufacturer. 

A good cautionary tale is the Franklin Mint collectibles.  An older relative of mine bought a lot of such collectibles several decades ago.  There were all sorts of medals in his collection (mostly silver, but some base metals).  Upon his death, I was asked to help sell some of the material.  Wow, that was an eye-opener.  The base metal medals in the fancy display boxes were worthless and (with only a few exceptions) the silver medals with nice artwork, attractive packaging, and an interesting storyline were worth only melt value.  He had paid much more than melt value because of Franklin Mint's slick marketing about how they would be a great investment. 

A quick google search reveals a thread with an even more extreme story about Franklin Mint collectibles http://billhicksisdead.blogspot.com/2012/04/sucker-born-every-minute-franklin-mint.html 

This is not to pass judgment on any particular numismatic item or this thread in particular.  There are some base medal Chinese coins that sell for very high prices and were great investments.  My point is to emphasize the often-said advice of do your due diligence and don't just listen to the marketing.

andrewlee10

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #12 on: August 30, 2015, 09:09:52 AM »
Wise advice. Some numismatic items can be quite profitable...for the dealer or manufacturer. 

A good cautionary tale is the Franklin Mint collectibles.  An older relative of mine bought a lot of such collectibles several decades ago.  There were all sorts of medals in his collection (mostly silver, but some base metals).  Upon his death, I was asked to help sell some of the material.  Wow, that was an eye-opener.  The base metal medals in the fancy display boxes were worthless and (with only a few exceptions) the silver medals with nice artwork, attractive packaging, and an interesting storyline were worth only melt value.  He had paid much more than melt value because of Franklin Mint's slick marketing about how they would be a great investment. 

A quick google search reveals a thread with an even more extreme story about Franklin Mint collectibles http://billhicksisdead.blogspot.com/2012/04/sucker-born-every-minute-franklin-mint.html 

This is not to pass judgment on any particular numismatic item or this thread in particular.  There are some base medal Chinese coins that sell for very high prices and were great investments.  My point is to emphasize the often-said advice of do your due diligence and don't just listen to the marketing.

Can we say the person buy the silver pagoda set PF69 at 25K from member here is another case like this?

Offline BobW

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 220
  • Karma: 15
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #13 on: August 30, 2015, 12:04:01 PM »
Unless one is in on the "ground floor", buying modern numismatic material can be a high risk proposition from an investment standpoint. Acquiring popular older collectibles typically has a much lower risk albeit lower potential appreciation. It is always prudent before making a purchase to ask oneself, "if I want to sell, who will buy, when, and at what price?". If one is acquiring primarily for the enjoyment of collecting, the question may not be relevant.

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #14 on: August 30, 2015, 12:16:26 PM »
Who sold the Pagoda series for 25k.  Surely it wasn't anyone on this site who took advantage of another individual in such an unfair manner.  Wow.  I wonder if the seller was kind enough to ask the buyer, did you do you DD? 500.00 is one thing, but 25k? That's a
different ball of wax. When I bought the XIE set, I spoke with several of you on this site. A few of you said, are you sure? Even the seller said, are you sure you want to buy it for 2.6k.  I wrestled with it, and decided to roll the dice.  I hope the seller of that Pagaoda set tried to talk the buyer out of it. I'm all for making a profit. But if they were a part of this community, unloading that set, I hope they feel good about the transaction. Yes, the buyer is ultimately responsible. But this is a community of like minded individuals, whose passion is MCC's.  Wow! 25k
That's...well, I won't say what that is, in case it is in fact someone from this community who sold it.  I'd hate to get lambasted for being a truth teller.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 885
  • Karma: 199
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #15 on: August 30, 2015, 02:12:03 PM »
The seller of the set was an investor who is not on this forum.  I sold him the set for $2K a few months before he flipped it for $25K, he would have gladly sold it for $100K if he could, he was an investor and didn't really care for the coins, he bought and sold anything that he could make money on.  After selling the set for $25K he bought another one for $12K, believing $25K price was a true market price.  Now he is totally out of Chinese coins, and that PF69 set he bought for $12K, he sold last year for around $2.5K.   In my opinion the seller did nothing wrong, when the set was hot he didn't want to sell it cheap, but finally got an offer he couldn't refuse and sold. Years latter when he wanted to sell, he got offers from several of us and sold to the highest bidder even though it was an 80% loss, this was the high volatility game he signed up to play and had experienced it many times before in other markets.  When markets are spiking sellers are scared to sell too cheap, when markets are crashing buyers are scared to catch a falling knife, the key to remember is when prices are going up Seller are in control, when prices are going down Buyers are in control.

The real culprit in the mispricing of this set back then was this forum and some of its members.  Several members promoted the sets like they were the must own coins and super rare, back then only <10x PF69 sets existed so they were rare in PF69 but many sets were still on the sideline in capsules.  The pump was on and several new collectors without the benefit of experience took a bite at the high/crazy prices.  Same thing happened with God of Wealth 3.3oz silver coin with all its variations, a coin that was available in bulk at $120 6-9 months prior was suddenly selling for $2000 and new collectors were buying hand over fist. 

As popo says buying coins with high numismatic premium are the riskiest, because the downside is melt when liquidity dries up.  If given the choice to OWN (not buy and sell) 1oz silver coin or 1/10 oz gold coin both with similar survival numbers for $180, I always buy the 1/10 oz gold, because my downside is smaller if numismatic premium disappears some day.  Also, my profit margin on medals with high numismatic premiums (which I don't collect) is 5x-10x higher than on gold pandas (which I collect heavily), I like to own gold pandas so I pay up to buy them, I don't like to own medals because of lower liquidity my bids are rock bottom prices, so when I do get medals the profits are super high because the seller is forcing me to give them a bid rather than me seeking them out. 

In the end the buyer is responsible for their purchases, because the items we deal in are all very hard to replace quickly, so each transaction is really unique for most coins from 1979-2010.   The best example of this is the 1992 gold panda proof set in PF69 or PR69 condition.  I have consistently owned 50%+ of the possible sets available since 2008, and if you wanted to buy one from me in 2008-2010, you had to offer 2x-3x times the market price for me to even consider selling one, because I knew how hard they are to replace, especially the 1/4 and 1 oz in PF69.  In 2011 the set finally got to a reasonable price in my opinion $25K, at that point I was willing to sell at the market price.  If you had bought from me a PF69 set in 2009 for $15k when omp sets were only $4k, and assuming the set never spiked to $25K, the buyer can't blame me for over charging them in 2009, because in my mind the set's potential value was $15K at the time and I knew if I sold it, I most likely would not be able to replace it, despite being able to buy omp sets for $4K (send in 5x omp sets and you may get one PF69 set).

Online Mirkkanen

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+48)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1375
  • Karma: 42
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #16 on: August 30, 2015, 02:16:17 PM »
There is nothing unfair about a transaction that includes a willing buyer and seller. Buyers at the 25k range in a rising market are speculating. Sometimes it works to your advantage, sometimes not.

A seller should have no shame selling coin X into a rising market. It is not a seller's job to counsel a potential buyer or hold his/her hand. A seller's job is simply to offer product to the marketplace. The buyer must decide whether circumstances are right to purchase said item.

Take, for example, that seller on eBay who has ludicrously high prices for his hundreds of gold pandas and who almost never sells a thing. Au3000 maybe? If a newbie "buys it now" and overpays for a coin that has been continuously listed and relisted for years, is it the seller's fault? Is the seller responsible for the buyer's decision-making?

No.

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #17 on: August 30, 2015, 02:19:51 PM »
Wow.  Very helpful insights.  Thanks for sharing.  I'm still learning the ropes.  And the key for me is what you said about a 1 oz silver vs 1/10 oz gold for 180.00.  That piece of advice is worth it's weight in gold.  Thank you.  The one thing I'm thankful for is having folks to bounce ideas off, and they've saved me from a lot of heartache.  You know who you are.  #thankyou!!  If the silver to gold ratio weren't so dang high, I'd be buying gold too...bullion that is...which is not the subject of this forum. LOL.  Thanks again for the history lesson Arif.

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2015, 02:24:56 PM »
Perhaps Mirk, but within this family of believers I'd expect a different level of transparency, openness, disclosure and guidance.  But as Arif said, they weren't on this forum. Nuf said. But yes, in the end, buyer is responsible.  The buck stops with them. 

Offline poconopenn

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+7)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2643
  • Karma: 226
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #19 on: August 30, 2015, 04:04:32 PM »
When I bought the XIE set, I spoke with several of you on this site. A few of you said, are you sure? Even the seller said, are you sure you want to buy it for 2.6k.  I wrestled with it, and decided to roll the dice.   

Are you referred to XIE set the same as the following auction?

http://www.stacksbowers.com/BrowseAuctions/LotArchive/tabid/805/ProductID/906385/AuctionID/6106/Lot/53592/Default.aspx

Price realized: $1195 for NGC 69, 3 sets, copper, brass and silver.



barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #20 on: August 30, 2015, 04:34:46 PM »
Wrong link. XIE classical garden. Thanks.  If you can find me a set of PF69 for 1200, I'm a buyer. PM, please.

andrewlee10

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #21 on: August 30, 2015, 09:06:45 PM »
Wrong link. XIE classical garden. Thanks.  If you can find me a set of PF69 for 1200, I'm a buyer. PM, please.

I might need one set too if pf69 at 1.2k

andrewlee10

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #22 on: August 30, 2015, 09:12:55 PM »
There is nothing unfair about a transaction that includes a willing buyer and seller. Buyers at the 25k range in a rising market are speculating. Sometimes it works to your advantage, sometimes not.

A seller should have no shame selling coin X into a rising market. It is not a seller's job to counsel a potential buyer or hold his/her hand. A seller's job is simply to offer product to the marketplace. The buyer must decide whether circumstances are right to purchase said item.

Take, for example, that seller on eBay who has ludicrously high prices for his hundreds of gold pandas and who almost never sells a thing. Au3000 maybe? If a newbie "buys it now" and overpays for a coin that has been continuously listed and relisted for years, is it the seller's fault? Is the seller responsible for the buyer's decision-making?

No.


Totally agree willing buyer and willing seller.  Buyer must do all job before decision. There is no guarantee investment to gain and profit all times. I remember someone keep mentioning no bump and dump in this forum.

When a coin at peak selling price and I say I have some for sell and it is good. Does this constitute bump and dump ? I am trying to learn the norm here.

Online Mirkkanen

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+48)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1375
  • Karma: 42
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #23 on: August 30, 2015, 09:20:52 PM »
When a coin at peak selling price and I say I have some for sell and it is good. Does this constitute bump and dump ? I am trying to learn the norm here.

Forum members expect disclosure: a level of truth in one's motives and holdings. If you are the producer of a coin or series, say so if trying to sell here. If you have 5 of coin X and you are trying to sell them, say so. If you are purposefully misleading or deceiving members here, you will not be looked favorably upon.

Integrity above profit at CCF, at least that is what we strive for.

Oh yeah, and to say a coin is "good" is simply an opinion. I do not have a problem with this, however, please refrain from behavior designed to artificially inflate prices.

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #24 on: August 30, 2015, 09:40:01 PM »
I'm new to to this forum, and the ways and rules of the pros of this site, but for disclosure sake, when Arif was selling his 60 sets of this and 40 sets of that, and 80 sets of this (back in the day), were they being sold on this site (don't remember exact numbers - just giving approximate numbers)?  And was it disclosed that he had that many in his possession at the time of selling?  Curious minds would like to know.  I know mine would!

Online Mirkkanen

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+48)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1375
  • Karma: 42
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #25 on: August 30, 2015, 09:49:38 PM »
I'm new to to this forum, and the ways and rules of the pros of this site, but for disclosure sake, when Arif was selling his 60 sets of this and 40 sets of that, and 80 sets of this (back in the day), were they being sold on this site (don't remember exact numbers - just giving approximate numbers)?  And was it disclosed that he had that many in his possession at the time of selling?  Curious minds would like to know.  I know mine would!

As you can see by Arif's "trade count," half of which are sales to me within the past 18 months or so, he is not selling his coins on this site. He has his own webpage where he sells. His business is not conducted through this forum, not now anyway. I have not been around long enough to tell you about many years past. Arif comes here to drop knowledge and insight that makes us all more informed buyers and sellers.

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #26 on: August 30, 2015, 09:58:21 PM »
Got it. Thanks much.  Hopefully the standard by which you are challenging Andrew to abide by, is what the other veterans of this site have been following, and will continue to follow.  Because a double standard is a no, no, as you well know.  Thanks for the info. 

Online Mirkkanen

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+48)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1375
  • Karma: 42
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #27 on: August 30, 2015, 10:06:02 PM »
Please do not mistake my post above as a challenge to Andrew. He asked an honest question, and based on my years here, I gave the answer I feel represents the majority of members opinions.

AND as for whether base metal MCC will outperform PM MCC, the OP may be right in some instances, but I feel there will be many medals and medal series' that flop hard. Only time will tell if, in the end, they experience price gains similar to what we have seen in the past decade for MCC made of gold and silver

Offline PandaCollector

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+5)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2505
  • Karma: 80
  • Gender: Male
    • Pandacollector.com
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #28 on: August 30, 2015, 10:09:44 PM »
In the end the buyer is responsible for their purchases, because the items we deal in are all very hard to replace quickly, so each transaction is really unique for most coins from 1979-2010.   The best example of this is the 1992 gold panda proof set in PF69 or PR69 condition.  I have consistently owned 50%+ of the possible sets available since 2008, and if you wanted to buy one from me in 2008-2010, you had to offer 2x-3x times the market price for me to even consider selling one, because I knew how hard they are to replace, especially the 1/4 and 1 oz in PF69.  In 2011 the set finally got to a reasonable price in my opinion $25K, at that point I was willing to sell at the market price.  If you had bought from me a PF69 set in 2009 for $15k when omp sets were only $4k, and assuming the set never spiked to $25K, the buyer can't blame me for over charging them in 2009, because in my mind the set's potential value was $15K at the time and I knew if I sold it, I most likely would not be able to replace it, despite being able to buy omp sets for $4K (send in 5x omp sets and you may get one PF69 set).


Arif runs a coin business. It is certainly meant to make him a profit and I cannot imagine that any of his customers are unaware of that. He sets a price that reflects his views of the specific coins, the overall market and his expectations of the future. If someone doesn't agree with his prices they can try someplace else. He is a good businessman and has my respect for this. To the best of my knowledge he has never offered coins for sale on the forum. My experience with him is that if you ask him an intelligent question you will receive an intelligent answer in return. I always look forward to having a conversation with Arif just as I enjoy reading his posts on the CCF.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #29 on: August 30, 2015, 10:12:19 PM »
lol.  I didn't mean 'challenge' to mean harshness. I just meant that hopefully everyone abides by this request, and that some veterans don't think they're 'above the law.'  Not sure what would gave me that crazy idea, as I'm sure everyone who sells on this site lives by the highest standards of ethics.   Thanks Mirk.

p.s. I have no one person in mind. My comment about Arif was referring to his recent post where he mentioned all the medals he had and I believe he said he sold.  Kudos to him. I was just curious if he sold on this site.  Question answered.  Thanks much.  Oh, and I too appreciate the knowledge he shares.  It's very helpful!  Thanks Arif.

Online Mirkkanen

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+48)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1375
  • Karma: 42
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #30 on: August 30, 2015, 10:16:48 PM »
Karma ratings are a fair indicator of the kind of person you're dealing with, not perfect, but at least a hint.

Check out Arif, poconopenn, PandaCollector, Birdman, and other veteran members. It tells you something, but much less than the quality of their posts.

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #31 on: August 30, 2015, 10:20:36 PM »
Yes indeed. And I have the utmost respect for most everyone you listed, and appreciate all the info and knowledge they share.  Quite impressive for sure.  Thanks for ALL the feedback you've shared. I really do appreciate it.

Offline PandaCollector

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+5)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2505
  • Karma: 80
  • Gender: Male
    • Pandacollector.com
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #32 on: August 30, 2015, 11:06:58 PM »
The highest returns on modern Chinese numismatic items have been in brass and aluminum coins and medals. That is because their starting price was so low. The best is probably the 1988 Hong Kong Coin Expo brass Panda because it was initially free and is now worth several thousand Dollars. You can't beat free. The 1985 brass Panda comes close with a minimal original valuation and a current value of more than $25,000.

The price of many coins with significant precious metal content is tied to their intrinsic value, for better or worse. This can viewed as an insurance policy, as KeyDatePanda points out, or as a drag on performance in a weak metal market. Nonetheless, the prices of many precious metal coins do not track trends in the gold and silver markets. In particular, demand is influenced by factors that often have little to do with the price of precious metals. An example is the heavy demand in Japan during the 1980s for less than one oz. gold Pandas. This was due to a Japanese government policy.

FWIW, several of the most successful coin "investors" I have met are people who paid a lot of attention to how much gold and silver they own and minimal attention to the price of the underlying metals. But these people were generally buying numismatic coins, not Krugerrands. Others have benefitted enormously from buying numismatically interesting coins with almost no regard for precious metal value or trends. When the rest of the world caught up to them their returns made a joke of the returns from unleveraged precious metals. An example of this is the person who bought a barrel full of 2000 silver Pandas at the new issue price. That barrel later paid for a house in a world-famous neighborhood.

in any case, I think that buying coins of any metal, be it brass or gold, for their collectible qualities is a lot more fun than buying metal bars. You will receive a guaranteed return  in enjoyment and potentially a superior ROI down the road. Good luck to all.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 885
  • Karma: 199
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #33 on: August 31, 2015, 12:00:30 AM »
I'm new to to this forum, and the ways and rules of the pros of this site, but for disclosure sake, when Arif was selling his 60 sets of this and 40 sets of that, and 80 sets of this (back in the day), were they being sold on this site (don't remember exact numbers - just giving approximate numbers)?  And was it disclosed that he had that many in his possession at the time of selling?  Curious minds would like to know.  I know mine would!

I don't think I have ever sold anything on this site, but have bought a few coins from posts on this site.  Prior to 2013 I rarely even posted on this site, maybe a few posts a year, even though I have been a member since 2008.  I sell primarily to dealers when it comes to medals, brass, platinum, silver, platinum, low grades (< ms69), PCGS and bulk lots, because I will rarely buy them back from a collector if they want to sell sometime in the future.  Gold pandas in N69 or belter, I primarily sell to collectors, because I am willing to buy those back in the future and would like to have the opportunity to get them back if prices spike. 

andrewlee10

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #34 on: August 31, 2015, 01:37:13 AM »
I don't think I have ever sold anything on this site, but have bought a few coins from posts on this site.  Prior to 2013 I rarely even posted on this site, maybe a few posts a year, even though I have been a member since 2008.  I sell primarily to dealers when it comes to medals, brass, platinum, silver, platinum, low grades (< ms69), PCGS and bulk lots, because I will rarely buy them back from a collector if they want to sell sometime in the future.  Gold pandas in N69 or belter, I primarily sell to collectors, because I am willing to buy those back in the future and would like to have the opportunity to get them back if prices spike. 

Hi Arif,

I like you post much especially the recent post which did stated clearly the dealers ways and strategies. I do feel gold panda is good investment and searching and looking is fun and yielding a good return is more fun.




andrewlee10

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #35 on: August 31, 2015, 01:42:32 AM »
The highest returns on modern Chinese numismatic items have been in brass and aluminum coins and medals. That is because their starting price was so low. The best is probably the 1988 Hong Kong Coin Expo brass Panda because it was initially free and is now worth several thousand Dollars. You can't beat free. The 1985 brass Panda comes close with a minimal original valuation and a current value of more than $25,000.

The price of many coins with significant precious metal content is tied to their intrinsic value, for better or worse. This can viewed as an insurance policy, as KeyDatePanda points out, or as a drag on performance in a weak metal market. Nonetheless, the prices of many precious metal coins do not track trends in the gold and silver markets. In particular, demand is influenced by factors that often have little to do with the price of precious metals. An example is the heavy demand in Japan during the 1980s for less than one oz. gold Pandas. This was due to a Japanese government policy.

FWIW, several of the most successful coin "investors" I have met are people who paid a lot of attention to how much gold and silver they own and minimal attention to the price of the underlying metals. But these people were generally buying numismatic coins, not Krugerrands. Others have benefitted enormously from buying numismatically interesting coins with almost no regard for precious metal value or trends. When the rest of the world caught up to them their returns made a joke of the returns from unleveraged precious metals. An example of this is the person who bought a barrel full of 2000 silver Pandas at the new issue price. That barrel later paid for a house in a world-famous neighborhood.

in any case, I think that buying coins of any metal, be it brass or gold, for their collectible qualities is a lot more fun than buying metal bars. You will receive a guaranteed return  in enjoyment and potentially a superior ROI down the road. Good luck to all.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com


Hi Peter,

Agreed on the statement.

How collectors/investors to identify an item is worth to buy and sustain over time? I name the "silver pagoda" is bubble . It once 25K and down 2K now. This item has been cause a lot arguments in CCF as I heard. Personally, I like the items BUT I has no faith on it since the up down is too drastic. Sometimes, it is very tough decision. 

Online KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1727
  • Karma: 54
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #36 on: August 31, 2015, 07:56:11 AM »
The highest returns on modern Chinese numismatic items have been in brass and aluminum coins and medals. That is because their starting price was so low. The best is probably the 1988 Hong Kong Coin Expo brass Panda because it was initially free and is now worth several thousand Dollars. You can't beat free. The 1985 brass Panda comes close with a minimal original valuation and a current value of more than $25,000.

The price of many coins with significant precious metal content is tied to their intrinsic value, for better or worse. This can viewed as an insurance policy, as KeyDatePanda points out, or as a drag on performance in a weak metal market. Nonetheless, the prices of many precious metal coins do not track trends in the gold and silver markets. In particular, demand is influenced by factors that often have little to do with the price of precious metals. An example is the heavy demand in Japan during the 1980s for less than one oz. gold Pandas. This was due to a Japanese government policy.

FWIW, several of the most successful coin "investors" I have met are people who paid a lot of attention to how much gold and silver they own and minimal attention to the price of the underlying metals. But these people were generally buying numismatic coins, not Krugerrands. Others have benefitted enormously from buying numismatically interesting coins with almost no regard for precious metal value or trends. When the rest of the world caught up to them their returns made a joke of the returns from unleveraged precious metals. An example of this is the person who bought a barrel full of 2000 silver Pandas at the new issue price. That barrel later paid for a house in a world-famous neighborhood.

in any case, I think that buying coins of any metal, be it brass or gold, for their collectible qualities is a lot more fun than buying metal bars. You will receive a guaranteed return  in enjoyment and potentially a superior ROI down the road. Good luck to all.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com


I see successful coin collection as a long term project in which you gradually acquire experience and pick up reasonably priced items along the way. At times you may be very lucky to come across great deals. At other times you may make mistakes in your acquisitions. There is also a Ying yang type of conflict that exists in the collection identity. This is probably what makes some pay more than items are worth on occasions as has clearly happened with the silver pagodas. However the history of MCC collection is still short and the future may evaluate more kindly some of these collection decisions.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline Birdman

  • Supporter
  • Global Moderator
  • Trade Count: (+19)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1882
  • Karma: 137
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #37 on: August 31, 2015, 09:10:47 AM »
lol.  I didn't mean 'challenge' to mean harshness. I just meant that hopefully everyone abides by this request, and that some veterans don't think they're 'above the law.'  Not sure what would gave me that crazy idea, as I'm sure everyone who sells on this site lives by the highest standards of ethics.   Thanks Mirk

You ask an important question, barsenault.  Ever since I was asked to be a moderator, I've felt a burden of even higher standards of operation.  I certainly would not want to be perceived as a hypocrite!

I occasionally offer some coins for sale on the site as a discount for forum members compared to the prices I sell them on eBay, which I price higher to cover the ebay/paypal fees.  I would not consider myself a dealer, however, just someone who seeks to sell parts of my collection to free up money to buy other things.  For instance, within the last year I bought an entire 5-coin gold proof set that had several PF70 denominations in order to get one G1/2 PF70 coin.  I paid a lot for the set and my funds are limited, so I proceeded to list the other four coins on ebay and here.  After much work, I found a home for all of the coins and I have the G1/2 PF70 in my collection.  Also, I occasionally send coins in for grading, and I will sell the 68s on this site (often at a loss), just to free up money.

I like to think that I am transparent in what I collect, and hopefully every forum member reading this will not be surprised when I say that I like to collect gold pandas in general, and G1/2 in particular.  Since I track the prices carefully, I will occasionally post a "Wow of the Day" to share my observations, as I did recently 

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2618.msg67449#msg67449

I was fortunate enough to buy a 1995 G1/2 MS69 a few years ago and I am genuinely amazed at how the price has spiked.  I also found a 1995 G1/2 OMP in a coin shop a few years ago and posted a photo of it one this site.  I got it graded (only a MS68) and then sold it to a big dealer for peanuts relative to the current price  :(   

I consider my posting behavior to be appropriate, because I think I've been very open.

I have bought more than one of some gold 1/2 panda dates that I think is a good investment.  They are sitting in a safety deposit box.  I do intend to sell at some point, but I think the price will go much higher, so I am holding them for now.

I remember someone keep mentioning no bump and dump in this forum.

When a coin at peak selling price and I say I have some for sell and it is good. Does this constitute bump and dump ? I am trying to learn the norm here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pump_and_dump

I think the worst cases of pump and dump as applied to coins would be when a person actively talks bad about a coin (perhaps spreading false rumors that there are lots of fakes) in order to depress the price.  The person then actively buys at that artificially lower price.  Then, once he has a sizeable position, he (using multiple username accounts or accomplices) starts pumping the coins, saying how great they are and what wonderful investment potential they have.  Importantly, at the same time he is talking about how great they are and how he is actively buying them, he, instead, is actively selling them!  Taking advantage of the artificially high price because of all the hype.  Once he has made his money on that coin, he stops hyping it and moves on to pump the next coin type that he has acquired a sizable position in (or some other advantageous financial arrangement).  He (or she) makes money by manipulating the market and taking advantage of people who are novices and/or haven't done their due diligence. 

The above scenario is a hypothetical one and I'm not sure something has happened on the forum with all of those elements.  Having said that, I'm pretty certain that some pumping and dumping with some of the above elements has happened this site in the past.  That is why members are very sensitive to it happening again.  And why some members may even be overvigilant and have perhaps been too quick to accuse some newcomers of deceitful practices.  Besides a few bruised egos and some minor squabbling, I think we do a good job at maintaining a site that is a great place to learn and is safe for newcomers.  They can feel good that they are not going to be manipulated in a pump and dump scam. 

Oh, by the way Arif is  :thumbup:

Offline fwang2450

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+5)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1010
  • Karma: 172
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #38 on: August 31, 2015, 12:06:04 PM »
The highest returns on modern Chinese numismatic items have been in brass and aluminum coins and medals. That is because their starting price was so low. The best is probably the 1988 Hong Kong Coin Expo brass Panda because it was initially free and is now worth several thousand Dollars. You can't beat free. The 1985 brass Panda comes close with a minimal original valuation and a current value of more than $25,000.

The price of many coins with significant precious metal content is tied to their intrinsic value, for better or worse. This can viewed as an insurance policy, as KeyDatePanda points out, or as a drag on performance in a weak metal market. Nonetheless, the prices of many precious metal coins do not track trends in the gold and silver markets. In particular, demand is influenced by factors that often have little to do with the price of precious metals. An example is the heavy demand in Japan during the 1980s for less than one oz. gold Pandas. This was due to a Japanese government policy.

FWIW, several of the most successful coin "investors" I have met are people who paid a lot of attention to how much gold and silver they own and minimal attention to the price of the underlying metals. But these people were generally buying numismatic coins, not Krugerrands. Others have benefitted enormously from buying numismatically interesting coins with almost no regard for precious metal value or trends. When the rest of the world caught up to them their returns made a joke of the returns from unleveraged precious metals. An example of this is the person who bought a barrel full of 2000 silver Pandas at the new issue price. That barrel later paid for a house in a world-famous neighborhood.

in any case, I think that buying coins of any metal, be it brass or gold, for their collectible qualities is a lot more fun than buying metal bars. You will receive a guaranteed return  in enjoyment and potentially a superior ROI down the road. Good luck to all.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

I agree with Peter, especially on the last paragraph. One point I want to add about base metal circulating coins is that they are known to everybody in China and have a much larger collector base. The membership of the circulating coin collection site coin001.com grew from 20,000 when I joined it in mid 2013, to about 80,000 now. This rapid expansion of the collector base is driving up the prices of base metal coins. I have met with some people who started base metal coin collection by searching through their pocket change and noticed something weird about the coins (doubled dies, very late die state, cracked dies, die rotation, cuds and so on). This advantage of popularity, in addition to the extremely low entry point, contributes to the rise of the circulating coins, the collection of which, by the way, has a much shorter history than precious metal coins. Serious base metal coin collection in China started only this century.

Online KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1727
  • Karma: 54
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #39 on: August 31, 2015, 12:21:36 PM »
You ask an important question, barsenault.  Ever since I was asked to be a moderator, I've felt a burden of even higher standards of operation.  I certainly would not want to be perceived as a hypocrite!

I occasionally offer some coins for sale on the site as a discount for forum members compared to the prices I sell them on eBay, which I price higher to cover the ebay/paypal fees.  I would not consider myself a dealer, however, just someone who seeks to sell parts of my collection to free up money to buy other things.  For instance, within the last year I bought an entire 5-coin gold proof set that had several PF70 denominations in order to get one G1/2 PF70 coin.  I paid a lot for the set and my funds are limited, so I proceeded to list the other four coins on ebay and here.  After much work, I found a home for all of the coins and I have the G1/2 PF70 in my collection.  Also, I occasionally send coins in for grading, and I will sell the 68s on this site (often at a loss), just to free up money.

I like to think that I am transparent in what I collect, and hopefully every forum member reading this will not be surprised when I say that I like to collect gold pandas in general, and G1/2 in particular.  Since I track the prices carefully, I will occasionally post a "Wow of the Day" to share my observations, as I did recently 

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2618.msg67449#msg67449

I was fortunate enough to buy a 1995 G1/2 MS69 a few years ago and I am genuinely amazed at how the price has spiked.  I also found a 1995 G1/2 OMP in a coin shop a few years ago and posted a photo of it one this site.  I got it graded (only a MS68) and then sold it to a big dealer for peanuts relative to the current price  :(   

I consider my posting behavior to be appropriate, because I think I've been very open.

I have bought more than one of some gold 1/2 panda dates that I think is a good investment.  They are sitting in a safety deposit box.  I do intend to sell at some point, but I think the price will go much higher, so I am holding them for now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pump_and_dump

I think the worst cases of pump and dump as applied to coins would be when a person actively talks bad about a coin (perhaps spreading false rumors that there are lots of fakes) in order to depress the price.  The person then actively buys at that artificially lower price.  Then, once he has a sizeable position, he (using multiple username accounts or accomplices) starts pumping the coins, saying how great they are and what wonderful investment potential they have.  Importantly, at the same time he is talking about how great they are and how he is actively buying them, he, instead, is actively selling them!  Taking advantage of the artificially high price because of all the hype.  Once he has made his money on that coin, he stops hyping it and moves on to pump the next coin type that he has acquired a sizable position in (or some other advantageous financial arrangement).  He (or she) makes money by manipulating the market and taking advantage of people who are novices and/or haven't done their due diligence. 

The above scenario is a hypothetical one and I'm not sure something has happened on the forum with all of those elements.  Having said that, I'm pretty certain that some pumping and dumping with some of the above elements has happened this site in the past.  That is why members are very sensitive to it happening again.  And why some members may even be overvigilant and have perhaps been too quick to accuse some newcomers of deceitful practices.  Besides a few bruised egos and some minor squabbling, I think we do a good job at maintaining a site that is a great place to learn and is safe for newcomers.  They can feel good that they are not going to be manipulated in a pump and dump scam. 

Oh, by the way Arif is  :thumbup:

I believe CCF has an established record of rooting out questionable practices and forum members. This is documented in the forum archives. I also see continuing efforts to ensure that things don't get out of hand as they once did in the past.

This is why I have now done most of my postings in this forum because I am confident of the integrity of the administrative staff as well as the veteran members who are ready to step in without fear or favor to correct any aberrant situation.

This is also one of the reasons I have stuck to this forum despite recent attempts to otherize me and incessant smiting of which I don't know what I have done that is so egregious as to merit >20 smites often on a daily basis and even 2-3 times a day.

Several forum members have my personal and contact data as a result of transactions with them or discussions by PM. I don't think it is safe for such details to be presented here as this is not a private discussion forum and nothing is sacrosanct on the internet.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline pandamonium

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2103
  • Karma: 28
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #40 on: August 31, 2015, 01:57:58 PM »
I agree with Peter, especially on the last paragraph. One point I want to add about base metal circulating coins is that they are known to everybody in China and have a much larger collector base. The membership of the circulating coin collection site coin001.com grew from 20,000 when I joined it in mid 2013, to about 80,000 now. This rapid expansion of the collector base is driving up the prices of base metal coins. I have met with some people who started base metal coin collection by searching through their pocket change and noticed something weird about the coins (doubled dies, very late die state, cracked dies, die rotation, cuds and so on). This advantage of popularity, in addition to the extremely low entry point, contributes to the rise of the circulating coins, the collection of which, by the way, has a much shorter history than precious metal coins. Serious base metal coin collection in China started only this century.



Fwang, I think you should start a new topic on circulating coins as there is alot to learn and prices may surprise some.   My ebay searches resulted in very few offered in UNC or worn circulating condition.  Where are all the circulating coins?  The UNC?.......

Offline SANDAC

  • Supporter
  • Global Moderator
  • Trade Count: (+8)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2258
  • Karma: 118
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #41 on: August 31, 2015, 03:16:56 PM »
There already is a long thread on fen coins of PRC: 
http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=1078.0

Offline fwang2450

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+5)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1010
  • Karma: 172
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #42 on: August 31, 2015, 04:48:34 PM »


Fwang, I think you should start a new topic on circulating coins as there is alot to learn and prices may surprise some.   My ebay searches resulted in very few offered in UNC or worn circulating condition.  Where are all the circulating coins?  The UNC?.......
Chinese circulating coins were not exported like the precious metal coins except for the 1979-1986 bank sets, and so they are mostly available in China, although on eBay you can see some Hong Kong sellers selling graded circulating coins now and then. There are also offers of 1997-2000 bank sets, usually at a lower price than in China.

Offline davidt3251

  • Trade Count: (+6)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 504
  • Karma: 5
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #43 on: August 31, 2015, 05:52:48 PM »
I believe CCF has an established record of rooting out questionable practices and forum members. This is documented in the forum archives. I also see continuing efforts to ensure that things don't get out of hand as they once did in the past.

This is why I have now done most of my postings in this forum because I am confident of the integrity of the administrative staff as well as the veteran members who are ready

I suggest you read posts back around 2011-2013 when CCF promoted the 3.3oz silver God of Wealth in 69 as a $5600 medal. Then, if you wanted one, certain unnamed CCF members would require you FedEx the $5600 in small denomination notes. The veterans were largely around at that time.

Now it's a $900 medal.


Offline Birdman

  • Supporter
  • Global Moderator
  • Trade Count: (+19)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1882
  • Karma: 137
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #44 on: August 31, 2015, 06:12:39 PM »
I suggest you read posts back around 2011-2013 when CCF promoted the 3.3oz silver God of Wealth in 69 as a $5600 medal. Then, if you wanted one, certain unnamed CCF members would require you FedEx the $5600 in small denomination notes. The veterans were largely around at that time.

Now it's a $900 medal.

Wow, they required you to FedEx a large payment in small denomination bills?  That would raise red flags for me!

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 885
  • Karma: 199
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #45 on: August 31, 2015, 06:30:14 PM »
I suggest you read posts back around 2011-2013 when CCF promoted the 3.3oz silver God of Wealth in 69 as a $5600 medal. Then, if you wanted one, certain unnamed CCF members would require you FedEx the $5600 in small denomination notes. The veterans were largely around at that time.
Now it's a $900 medal.

$900 is still robbery, $567 was price last week in stacks.  
http://www.stacksbowers.com/archivedetail.aspx?productid=16882016&ResultCount=1947&sourcePage=archivesearchresults.aspx

Back in 2011 I know a very smart person (posted regularly on CCF) that wired $6K to total stranger in Italy because the guy told him his paypal account was blocked.  A month later no coins arrived and he told me about it and I said what were you thinking.  Back then the scramble was on and unethical sellers were having a field day taking advantage of buyers.  

Did you send him the small bills?  Is that seller still on CCF?  


Offline SANDAC

  • Supporter
  • Global Moderator
  • Trade Count: (+8)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2258
  • Karma: 118
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #46 on: August 31, 2015, 06:41:06 PM »
I think David is referring to this thread started by badon in August 2011:
http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3818.0
I read through it,, but didn't find any reference to fed ex small bills.  Maybe it is a side deal went bad.

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #47 on: August 31, 2015, 07:09:08 PM »
Birdman, I think the point he's trying to make is, the veterans haven't been living with integrity and ethics afterall, yes?   N20 It appears they - and they know who they are - are holding folks to a standard that they themselves don't keep.   N17. Those who throw the stones the hardest are typically the ones who are just as guilty as those they are condemning. Sorry to side track this thread, but we must call a spade a spade, right David?  I'm not naming names.  I know David won't name names.  You know who you are.

Offline Birdman

  • Supporter
  • Global Moderator
  • Trade Count: (+19)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1882
  • Karma: 137
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #48 on: August 31, 2015, 07:24:43 PM »
Birdman, I think the point he's trying to make is, the veterans haven't been living with integrity and ethics afterall, yes?   N20 It appears they - and they know who they are - are holding folks to a standard that they themselves don't keep.   N17. Those who throw the stones the hardest are typically the ones who are just as guilty as those they are condemning. Sorry to side track this thread, but we must call a spade a spade, right David?  I'm not naming names.  I know David won't name names.  You know who you are.

What I can say is that I don't know of any current members who are doing anything unethical.  We would be on top of it.  Please PM me or another moderator with specifics if you feel anything unsavory is going on.

For the record, I have never owned a God of Wealth, a Pagoda, a Goldfish....  While most of that stuff was going on, I was a regular member who was principally focused on finding better-date gold pandas for small margins over spot price in local coin shops or that were listed by big online coin dealers.  Since I was asked to become a moderator, I've tried my best to make the site safe and productive for all  N38

Online Mirkkanen

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+48)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1375
  • Karma: 42
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #49 on: August 31, 2015, 07:30:00 PM »
Birdman, I think the point he's trying to make is, the veterans haven't been living with integrity and ethics after all, yes?   N20 It appears they - and they know who they are - are holding folks to a standard that they themselves don't keep.   N17. Those who throw the stones the hardest are typically the ones who are just as guilty as those they are condemning. Sorry to side track this thread, but we must call a spade a spade, right David?  I'm not naming names.  I know David won't name names.  You know who you are.

With the exception of CCF members dobedo, poconopenn, comeaux and davidt, the posters in that thread are no longer active on this site and will never see your message. If you review the posts the 4 "veteran" members made, they were exposing the potential fraud, not hyping the medal.

"They - and they know who they are" are not here for you to silently condemn.


barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #50 on: August 31, 2015, 07:33:44 PM »
And you are doing a great job.  I think now folks will call people out, whether they are gurus or not. Which is a good thing, because NO ONE is above the law...no matter how righteous or smart they may be.  I could give a rats arse how smart they are or how much they know about MCC's. If they are being hypocritical or deceiptive, they need to be called out.  Thanks for the good work you do Birdman.   N31 N40

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #51 on: August 31, 2015, 07:35:42 PM »
With the exception of CCF members dobedo, poconopenn, comeaux and davidt, the posters in that thread are no longer active on this site and will never see your message. If you review the posts the 4 "veteran" members made, they were exposing the potential fraud, not hyping the medal.

"They - and they know who they are" are not here for you to silently condemn.


N31

Online KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1727
  • Karma: 54
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #52 on: August 31, 2015, 07:36:36 PM »
I suggest you read posts back around 2011-2013 when CCF promoted the 3.3oz silver God of Wealth in 69 as a $5600 medal. Then, if you wanted one, certain unnamed CCF members would require you FedEx the $5600 in small denomination notes. The veterans were largely around at that time.

Now it's a $900 medal.


Birdman, I think the point he's trying to make is, the veterans haven't been living with integrity and ethics afterall, yes?   N20 It appears they - and they know who they are - are holding folks to a standard that they themselves don't keep.   N17. Those who throw the stones the hardest are typically the ones who are just as guilty as those they are condemning. Sorry to side track this thread, but we must call a spade a spade, right David?  I'm not naming names.  I know David won't name names.  You know who you are.

Unless you can provide verifiable information anything else is gossip, which does not belong here at CCF IMHO!!!
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #53 on: August 31, 2015, 07:45:20 PM »
 N31

Offline davidt3251

  • Trade Count: (+6)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 504
  • Karma: 5
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #54 on: August 31, 2015, 08:00:00 PM »
Wow, they required you to FedEx a large payment in small denomination bills?  That would raise red flags for me!

Right. That put me off too and I never went through.  It did make me wonder if newbies were being set up.

Offline davidt3251

  • Trade Count: (+6)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 504
  • Karma: 5
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #55 on: August 31, 2015, 08:07:09 PM »
Unless you can provide verifiable information anything else is gossip, which does not belong here at CCF IMHO!!!

You know very well that CCF doesn't provide profiles so what is verifiable?

Then there was the ousting of Badon which I never agreed to.  It was based 100% on gossip. A smear campaign.

If you can read you can educate yourself.

But when Badon was ousted many (some say thousands)  of posts- many containing important data on MCC were deleted  The community archives were deleted by the moderator. Noone has that right.

If you are deluding yourself that doesn't go on here then look no further than a few days back Tao-Panda was able to slander me and call me a cheat and do so with impunity. He's not banned and continued his smearing  both in public posts and privately on messages to me.

Enough info for you yet??

Offline davidt3251

  • Trade Count: (+6)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 504
  • Karma: 5
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #56 on: August 31, 2015, 08:09:52 PM »
What I can say is that I don't know of any current members who are doing anything unethical.  We would be on top of it.  Please PM me or another moderator with specifics if you feel anything unsavory is going on.

For the record, I have never owned a God of Wealth, a Pagoda, a Goldfish....  While most of that stuff was going on, I was a regular member who was principally focused on finding better-date gold pandas for small margins over spot price in local coin shops or that were listed by big online coin dealers.  Since I was asked to become a moderator, I've tried my best to make the site safe and productive for all  N38

You're not on top of it. Snowball hasn't replied to my three personal messages about slandering on this site the past few days.

By 'you' I mean the collective not you individually.

Offline davidt3251

  • Trade Count: (+6)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 504
  • Karma: 5
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #57 on: August 31, 2015, 08:13:04 PM »
And you are doing a great job.  I think now folks will call people out, whether they are gurus or not. Which is a good thing, because NO ONE is above the law...no matter how righteous or smart they may be.  I could give a rats arse how smart they are or how much they know about MCC's. If they are being hypocritical or deceiptive, they need to be called out.  Thanks for the good work you do Birdman.   N31 N40

I think we're going through a phase in human nature where little by little the layers are being peeled back to see what's beneath and not everything is pretty.

If humanity is going to evolve we will need to deal with this. Pretending it doesn't exist hasn't seemed to have helped humanity much.

Online KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1727
  • Karma: 54
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #58 on: August 31, 2015, 08:17:05 PM »
You know very well that CCF doesn't provide profiles so what is verifiable?

Then there was the ousting of Badon which I never agreed to.  It was based 100% on gossip. A smear campaign.

If you can read you can educate yourself.

But when Badon was ousted many (some say thousands)  of posts- many containing important data on MCC were deleted  The community archives were deleted by the moderator. Noone has that right.

If you are deluding yourself that doesn't go on here then look no further than a few days back Tao-Panda was able to slander me and call me a cheat and do so with impunity. He's not banned and continued his smearing  both in public posts and privately on messages to me.

Enough info for you yet??

I thought you referred the matter to your attorney? Matters in the legal pipeline can't be discussed. Find other examples for us to chew on. Again, anything you can't provide evidence in support of is gossip and potentially libelous! Does not belong here.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Online KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1727
  • Karma: 54
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #59 on: August 31, 2015, 08:24:20 PM »
You're not on top of it. Snowball hasn't replied to my three personal messages about slandering on this site the past few days.

By 'you' I mean the collective not you individually.

Again, once you bring up the possibility of legal intervention in any situation you change the relationship to an adversarial one. In this case the potential plaintiff does not owe you any duty of a response unless through legal channels upon presentation of a duly executed summons and associated paraphernalia!
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Online KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1727
  • Karma: 54
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #60 on: August 31, 2015, 08:28:15 PM »
I think we're going through a phase in human nature where little by little the layers are being peeled back to see what's beneath and not everything is pretty.

If humanity is going to evolve we will need to deal with this. Pretending it doesn't exist hasn't seemed to have helped humanity much.

So you are now the Crusader! Charity begins at home; try el bee see first!!!!! :001_tt2: :lol: N16 N25
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Online Mirkkanen

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+48)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1375
  • Karma: 42
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #61 on: August 31, 2015, 08:38:06 PM »
Stop badgering the forum please. You are wasting precious internet space.

Online KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1727
  • Karma: 54
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #62 on: August 31, 2015, 08:48:49 PM »
Stop badgering the forum please. You are wasting precious internet space.

Exercise your seniority in constructive ways and help your friend learn how to behave appropriately in forums. He cannot swagger in and insult forum members, impugn their integrity and then slink away! BTW have you smited me today or is your button suffering from overuse?!!!!!!!! N18
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline pandamonium

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2103
  • Karma: 28
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #63 on: August 31, 2015, 09:18:00 PM »
There already is a long thread on fen coins of PRC: 
http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=1078.0



Thanks for the link, lots of good info.    Do not have many UNC fens but due to the price rise it has caught my attention.....

Online KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1727
  • Karma: 54
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #64 on: August 31, 2015, 09:35:53 PM »
Exercise your seniority in constructive ways and help your friend learn how to behave appropriately in forums. He cannot swagger in and insult forum members, impugn their integrity and then slink away! BTW have you smited me today or is your button suffering from overuse?!!!!!!!! N18

My use of the term "friend" may be presumptuous so I withdraw the word and the associated smiting remark. But some group is smiting me heavily and this clandestine activity illustrates one of the very destructive effects of smiting on online forum relationships and equiamity. Someone needs to bring davidt under control. He is actually not good for the atmosphere here. No one should be allowed to disrupt our quiet enjoyment of coin collection at will in such a consistent way as he has done.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline poconopenn

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+7)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2643
  • Karma: 226
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #65 on: August 31, 2015, 10:11:02 PM »
I suggest you read posts back around 2011-2013 when CCF promoted the 3.3oz silver God of Wealth in 69 as a $5600 medal. Then, if you wanted one, certain unnamed CCF members would require you FedEx the $5600 in small denomination notes. The veterans were largely around at that time.

Now it's a $900 medal.



You know very well that CCF doesn't provide profiles so what is verifiable?

Then there was the ousting of Badon which I never agreed to.  It was based 100% on gossip. A smear campaign.

If you can read you can educate yourself.

But when Badon was ousted many (some say thousands)  of posts- many containing important data on MCC were deleted  The community archives were deleted by the moderator. Noone has that right.


Here is the fact.

CCF, during the large part of time span you mentioned was still under the control of ex-administrator. Three veterans were banned by ex-administrator and many veterans stop to post to protest in the later part of 2012 for the lack of transparency and the appearance of “conflict of interest” of ex-administrator. No file has been deleted and I still can find those threads.

The issue is related to the balance of privacy and transparency. Seller in this site, just like any place, has to be more transparency and sacrifice some privacy to avoid any appearance of “conflict of interest”. Buyer has to do his/her DD, not just for the coin/medal to be purchased, but also the seller to be purchased from.
 
CCF is an ad-free, very clean public forum. All moderators are volunteers and IMO, they have done an excellent job to keep this forum as safe as possible for new collectors to learn unbiased opinion about MCC. In addition, all moderators have excellent experience and knowledge in coin collection. Their wisdom are invaluable and we should all grateful for their services.

Offline poconopenn

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+7)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2643
  • Karma: 226
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #66 on: August 31, 2015, 10:15:22 PM »
I think David is referring to this thread started by badon in August 2011:
http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3818.0
I read through it,, but didn't find any reference to fed ex small bills.  Maybe it is a side deal went bad.

SANDC,

Thanks for the link. It is a great educational material for members in this forum.

Offline poconopenn

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+7)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2643
  • Karma: 226
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #67 on: August 31, 2015, 10:23:01 PM »
I agree with Peter, especially on the last paragraph. One point I want to add about base metal circulating coins is that they are known to everybody in China and have a much larger collector base. The membership of the circulating coin collection site coin001.com grew from 20,000 when I joined it in mid 2013, to about 80,000 now. This rapid expansion of the collector base is driving up the prices of base metal coins. I have met with some people who started base metal coin collection by searching through their pocket change and noticed something weird about the coins (doubled dies, very late die state, cracked dies, die rotation, cuds and so on). This advantage of popularity, in addition to the extremely low entry point, contributes to the rise of the circulating coins, the collection of which, by the way, has a much shorter history than precious metal coins. Serious base metal coin collection in China started only this century.

Totally agree.

The circulated commemorative Cu-Ni coins, especially the proof version, has been one of the few sections which has shown significant expansion of numismatic premium during the down market in the last three years, especially after some of the circulated coins listed at the Exchanges during last 12 months.  However, UNC aluminum fen coins was completely opposite. This might have something to do with the “pumping and dumping”, most likely unintentional, by few dealers at coin001.com in the earlier years. Many supposedly to be rare fen coins turned out to be not the case and the valuation of those coins had dropped about 50-80% during last three years. The mint and proof sets (1991-2000) are relatively stable in price. The large size copper medals, similar to PM MCC, the valuation has dropped since 2012.

Offline comeaux

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 934
  • Karma: 61
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #68 on: August 31, 2015, 10:39:46 PM »
Here is the fact.

CCF, during the large part of time span you mentioned was still under the control of ex-administrator. Three veterans were banned by ex-administrator and many veterans stop to post to protest in the later part of 2012 for the lack of transparency and the appearance of “conflict of interest” of ex-administrator. No file has been deleted and I still can find those threads.

The issue is related to the balance of privacy and transparency. Seller in this site, just like any place, has to be more transparency and sacrifice some privacy to avoid any appearance of “conflict of interest”. Buyer has to do his/her DD, not just for the coin/medal to be purchased, but also the seller to be purchased from.
 
CCF is an ad-free, very clean public forum. All moderators are volunteers and IMO, they have done an excellent job to keep this forum as safe as possible for new collectors to learn unbiased opinion about MCC. In addition, all moderators have excellent experience and knowledge in coin collection. Their wisdom are invaluable and we should all grateful for their services.

Excellent post poconopenn and I have to agree that the current moderators have done an exceptional job with this forum. Not only have the mods performed flawlessly but senior members such as you, Arif, Frank, hippanda, Joe & Jeremy and MANY others have contributed significant time and resources to make this forum the best source of information for MCC on the internet.

Offline Hippanda

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 863
  • Karma: 76
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #69 on: August 31, 2015, 11:08:09 PM »
Thank you for your valuable part too, Comeaux, in making that a reality, for standing for right and disclosure when it was not necessaily a popular position. 
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #70 on: August 31, 2015, 11:31:31 PM »
 N31

Online KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1727
  • Karma: 54
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #71 on: September 01, 2015, 02:20:24 AM »
Excellent post poconopenn and I have to agree that the current moderators have done an exceptional job with this forum. Not only have the mods performed flawlessly but senior members such as you, Arif, Frank, hippanda, Joe & Jeremy and MANY others have contributed significant time and resources to make this forum the best source of information for MCC on the internet.

Thank you for your valuable part too, Comeaux, in making that a reality, for standing for right and disclosure when it was not necessaily a popular position. 

When you seek the truth you rigorously examine available information and make a good faith best effort attempt to discover what it is telling you. As far as I know CCF was founded in 2008 and was a pioneer trailblazing forum for the interaction of those who had interests in studying Chinese coinage. This included individuals with varying interests in collecting, investing, trading and manufacturing coins and medals produced by mints usually located in China.

The Forum has enjoyed a pre-eminent status as a result of the continued hard work of forum members and staff including the founder. They have all selflessly shared their great enthusiasm for this area of endeavor with the international community. Despite any previous stumbles along the way it is clear that CCF enjoys the reputation for providing the best information based on current evidence using the "best practices" approach.

I wish to thank all of you who have stayed engaged all these years to assuage our thirst for the often bewildering and continuously evolving information available on many of these coins whose manuals and manifest seemed to have been thrown away after they were minted. Such is the joy of Chinese coin collection, with all the detective work and educated guesses, and yes, the drama!

As for me I just tune in from time to time to spend time with the boys, and girls too, learning as much as I can, saying what I can and keep on asking myself where I was in 1982 when the first panda coins (coins?, medals?, non-fiat coins?) hit the streets!
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Online KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1727
  • Karma: 54
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #72 on: September 01, 2015, 02:58:03 AM »
Alchemists were preoccupied with turning base metals into gold and producing elixirs for long life. Alchemists don't exist anymore, we think, and base metals have remained base metals.

Undoubtedly copper, bronze and brass produce great looking medals and these have been popular both in China and internationally. The market is being tested with different configurations of these medals with skyrocketing prices. The problem is how high these medals will soar before hitting turbulence?

This is more likely if the medals are not allowed to evolve naturally, if the market is flooded with variants of the same theme, if crass commercialism and self interest once more try to insist on an alternate reality as the norm.

That is also when the modern approach to alchemy will "surprisingly" lead to the same results of old!
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline Birdman

  • Supporter
  • Global Moderator
  • Trade Count: (+19)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1882
  • Karma: 137
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #73 on: September 01, 2015, 06:49:49 AM »
CCF is an ad-free, very clean public forum. All moderators are volunteers and IMO, they have done an excellent job to keep this forum as safe as possible for new collectors to learn unbiased opinion about MCC. In addition, all moderators have excellent experience and knowledge in coin collection. Their wisdom are invaluable and we should all grateful for their services.

Excellent post poconopenn and I have to agree that the current moderators have done an exceptional job with this forum. Not only have the mods performed flawlessly but senior members such as you, Arif, Frank, hippanda, Joe & Jeremy and MANY others have contributed significant time and resources to make this forum the best source of information for MCC on the internet.

Gentlemen,

Thank you for the vote of confidence.  It is nice to be appreciated.

I'll emphasize one word in Poconopenn's post:  "Volunteer".  I am not a retiree.  I have a real job in addition.  There were 57 posts yesterday.  I think I read them all, and responded to several where I thought appropriate.  I get a certain satisfaction and education from helping to moderate, but believe me there are many other things that are competing for my limited time and attention besides this forum.  With that in mind, I ask you to step inside the shoes of a moderator, and I ask you to treat each other the way you'd like to be treated.  I know there is always the temptation to fire off that quick post to jab at someone else or to pound your chest a bit.  It might give you an adrenaline rush.  But that can tend to cause reciprocal harsh words towards you.  Then people start smiting, then moderators get PMs.  All of that takes time.

I think we've really got some great momentum going recently on this forum.  Let's keep it up, but also elevate the, "treat others with respect, and leave your egos at the door" just a little more.

 N38

Offline Tao-Panda

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 231
  • Karma: 5
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #74 on: September 01, 2015, 10:49:21 AM »
I apologize to the other members but because he comes back with this on the forum, I have to reply.

If you are deluding yourself that doesn't go on here then look no further than a few days back Tao-Panda was able to slander me and call me a cheat and do so with impunity.
Once again, I did not slander you.
What I have written is only a fact.
You lied to me and tried to swindle me but fortunately for me, PayPal protection was there.
So, I strongly suggest you to stop threatening, to be less agressive and to stop snivelling.
Just assume what you did and do not try to look like a victim.  N32 N32 N32

And if you do not remember who I am, I suppose it is because you try to swindle so many people that you do not know which one of them I am.  :blink:

He's not banned and continued his smearing  both in public posts and privately on messages to me.
I only see a single slandering person here.

For the record, I still have all the proof about this case... as PayPal has.

Offline SANDAC

  • Supporter
  • Global Moderator
  • Trade Count: (+8)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2258
  • Karma: 118
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #75 on: September 01, 2015, 11:43:01 AM »
Tao-Panda and davidt3251,
We regularly have members posting about deals went bad and sometimes the other sides would respond and presented their side of story.  It is not the CCF staff's role to verify the veracity of either party's claims.  CCF serves as a conduit for airing of grievances in these cases.  

My I suggest you open a new topic and present your complaint as clearly and factually as you can.  Please keep your tone as neutral as possible.  Perhaps davidt3251 will recall the incident and respond with his side of story calmly.  

Thank you, moderator.

Offline Tao-Panda

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 231
  • Karma: 5
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #76 on: September 01, 2015, 11:53:21 AM »
Sandac,


Thank you for your wisdom.

In my concern, the case "davidt3251" is now over.

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #77 on: September 01, 2015, 11:58:37 AM »
Sorry, if it is over, then why bring it up in the first place?  All that drama, for what?  :scared:  Just curious.   :w00t:

Offline Tao-Panda

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 231
  • Karma: 5
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #78 on: September 01, 2015, 12:12:04 PM »
Over means... over   N21

Just note that I'm not responsible if Mr. davidt3251 lost his mind and began to threat and to tell anything instead of having a constructive discussion.

For further information, please, have a look at my only previous message on this case: http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=11592.msg67470#msg67470

Offline poconopenn

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+7)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2643
  • Karma: 226
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #79 on: September 01, 2015, 12:44:22 PM »
I suggest you read posts back around 2011-2013 when CCF promoted the 3.3oz silver God of Wealth in 69 as a $5600 medal. Then, if you wanted one, certain unnamed CCF members would require you FedEx the $5600 in small denomination notes. The veterans were largely around at that time.

Now it's a $900 medal.



Just want to present the records and the truth. If my memory serve me correct, birdman and SANDC were not the moderator during the period from June 15, 2011 to Aug. 26, 2011. At that time, the only moderator was located in H.K. and ex-administrator had total control of this forum. This seller and ex-administrator were banned permanently from this Forum at the same time.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3181.0 (June 15, 2011)

1989 3.3 oz silver God of War and Wealth clouded claw NCS NGC PF 69 UC
Ebay/PayPal price: $6200
check/money order price: $5650
cash price: $5150
NCS conserved. Population estimate less than 200. Rarely seen investment grade.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3424.0 (July 8, 2011)

1989 3.3 oz silver God of War and Wealth clouded claw NCS NGC PF 69 UC
Ebay/PayPal price: $6200
check/money order price: $5650
cash price: $5150
Population estimate less than 200. Rarely seen investment grade.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3452.0 (July 12, 2011)

1989 3.3 oz silver God of War and Wealth clouded claw NCS NGC PF 69 UC
Ebay/PayPal price: $6200
check/money order price: $5650
cash price: $5150
Population estimate less than 200. Rarely seen investment grade

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3725.0 (Aug. 15, 2011)

1984 20 g silver ancient pagoda temple 4 coin set NCS NGC PF 68 UC
Ebay/PayPal price: $14,000
check/money order price: $12,500
cash price: $10,000
Mintage 260, many melted.

1984 20 g silver ancient pagoda temple 4 coin set NCS NGC PF 69 UC
Ebay/PayPal price: $31,000
check/money order price: $28,500
cash price: $26,000
Mintage 260, many melted.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3811.0 (Aug. 26, 2011)

1984 20 g silver ancient pagoda temple 4 coin set NCS NGC PF 68 UC
Ebay/PayPal price: $14,000
check/money order price: $12,500
cash price: $10,000
Mintage 260, many melted.

1984 20 g silver ancient pagoda temple 4 coin set NCS NGC PF 69 UC
Ebay/PayPal price: $31,000
check/money order price: $28,500
cash price: $26,000
Mintage 260, many melted.


Offline dynamike51

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 712
  • Karma: 41
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #80 on: September 01, 2015, 01:12:37 PM »
I must say, poconopenn, you have kept meticulous record of everything.   N31  N31

Offline Birdman

  • Supporter
  • Global Moderator
  • Trade Count: (+19)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1882
  • Karma: 137
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #81 on: September 01, 2015, 01:16:28 PM »
Just want to present the records and the truth. If my memory serve me correct, birdman and SANDC were not the moderator during the period from June 15, 2011 to Aug. 26, 2011. At that time, the only moderator was located in H.K. and ex-administrator had total control of this forum. This seller and ex-administrator were banned permanently from this Forum at the same time.

I just checked.  I was asked to become a moderator on October 23, 2012.

Offline dynamike51

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 712
  • Karma: 41
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #82 on: September 01, 2015, 01:24:49 PM »
Exercise your seniority in constructive ways and help your friend learn how to behave appropriately in forums. He cannot swagger in and insult forum members, impugn their integrity and then slink away! BTW have you smited me today or is your button suffering from overuse?!!!!!!!! N18

I try to stay out of this fracas ..... BUT, KOT, you are being inflammatory and antagonistic. (KOT does not mean keep the flame going.)  Both davidt and mirkkanen have been around this forum a lot longer than you. Let's show them a little respect and tone down.

Offline SANDAC

  • Supporter
  • Global Moderator
  • Trade Count: (+8)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2258
  • Karma: 118
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #83 on: September 01, 2015, 01:28:24 PM »
I just checked.  I was asked to become a moderator on October 23, 2012.
I registered as a CCF member on 5/25/2011 and joined the moderator staff on 10/16/2012.  I don't own any God of War and Wealth medal.

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #84 on: September 01, 2015, 01:39:25 PM »
I recently joined, and man, I love my PF69 God War and Wealth medal.  Thank you Clark. :lol:

Offline dynamike51

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 712
  • Karma: 41
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #85 on: September 01, 2015, 01:54:52 PM »
And you are doing a great job.  I think now folks will call people out, whether they are gurus or not. Which is a good thing, because NO ONE is above the law...no matter how righteous or smart they may be.  I could give a rats arse how smart they are or how much they know about MCC's. If they are being hypocritical or deceiptive, they need to be called out.  Thanks for the good work you do Birdman.   N31 N40

Let's not turn this forum into a site of "calling people out" and "name calling".  Keep your personal grievance discreet, as Birdman suggests, by PM'ing to the moderators and let them handle it.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 885
  • Karma: 199
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #86 on: September 01, 2015, 02:10:19 PM »
Thank you popo for the flashback on the god of wealth medals, I don't remember them being over $2k, but looking at old forum posts that was really insightful and sad at the same time.  

I can't believe people were paying those crazy prices.  I bought 60x of them at $120 from the original 1989 owner in late 2010, he had 60 more that I passed on.  I sold my 60x for $240 to a dealer friend a few months later, who listed them on ebay for $400-$500 after grading and got the coin popular among true collectors at a reasonable price.  Then along came this CCF seller, who must have gotten their hands on the other 60x coins and pushed prices up from $500 to $5500 in short order by identifying frosting varieties and controlling a major hoard.  That is the major challenge with medals, many are owned as hoards by single investors.  When that investor sells the price can drop like a rock or skyrocket depending on marketing strategy of the dealer that distributes it, I have seen it go both ways.  

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #87 on: September 01, 2015, 02:24:00 PM »
KDP, wow. That is amazing.  I'm happy that I've pretty much collected most of the early year medals I've wanted.  Glad to be out of that market. Now I'm in the more recent series. Thankfully, I'm early to that market. lol.

Offline dynamike51

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 712
  • Karma: 41
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #88 on: September 01, 2015, 02:25:34 PM »
I think it would be foolish to root for $50,000/oz gold.  That would imply the world's greatest economy and currency would have debased by a factor of 40x from current levels.  A happy meal at Mcdonalds would be selling for $200, a gallon of gas $100, this would be very dark times for everyone, including those that own gold, because everyone around you will be fighting for survival.  A nice steady rise in the price of the gold similar to 1999-2008 is the best back drop one could hope for.  Also, great prosperity for the America, Europe and Asia are in the best interest of owners of numismatic coins, rooting for a country or continent to collapse in this highly connected world economy is bad for everyone.  

 :001_smile:   So true !   :001_smile:

Offline Birdman

  • Supporter
  • Global Moderator
  • Trade Count: (+19)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1882
  • Karma: 137
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #89 on: September 01, 2015, 03:12:37 PM »
Thank you popo for the flashback on the god of wealth medals, I don't remember them being over $2k, but looking at old forum posts that was really insightful and sad at the same time. 

I can't believe people were paying those crazy prices.  I bought 60x of them at $120 from the original 1989 owner in late 2010, he had 60 more that I passed on.  I sold my 60x for $240 to a dealer friend a few months later, who listed them on ebay for $400-$500 after grading and got the coin popular among true collectors at a reasonable price.  Then along came this CCF seller, who must have gotten their hands on the other 60x coins and pushed prices up from $500 to $5500 in short order by identifying frosting varieties and controlling a major hoard.  That is the major challenge with medals, many are owned as hoards by single investors.  When that investor sells the price can drop like a rock or skyrocket depending on marketing strategy of the dealer that distributes it, I have seen it go both ways. 

KDP, wow. That is amazing.  I'm happy that I've pretty much collected most of the early year medals I've wanted.  Glad to be out of that market. Now I'm in the more recent series. Thankfully, I'm early to that market. lol.

As I think you are aware of, but I'll mention for a new reader, just because you are in a "more recent series" and you are early to it doesn't mean there aren't similar caveats to be aware of (majority of supply controlled by a few people, potential for manipulation of price through hyping and other methods, etc.).  One needs to be cautious with new and old series alike and look for the common thread of red flags.

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #90 on: September 01, 2015, 03:57:23 PM »
thanks for the heads up birdman.  I like my chances with the more modern stuff vs. the older stuff. :-)

Offline poconopenn

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+7)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2643
  • Karma: 226
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #91 on: September 01, 2015, 05:05:48 PM »
I think David is referring to this thread started by badon in August 2011:
http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3818.0
I read through it,, but didn't find any reference to fed ex small bills.  Maybe it is a side deal went bad.

Read the thread mentioned by SANDAC carefully, especially the date and the postings by the originator of the thread and comparing to the dates of selling this God medal at CCF. Many veteran members considered the Stack’s auction was a fake sale and did not realize the auction might be a very skillful pumping to promote and sell the same medal at CCF and eBay until many moths later.

davidt3251,

You have been a long time member of this forum, I enjoy to read your postings. We may have many disagreements, but that do not bother me at all. So, please come back. Actually, the original intent of this thread you started is an excellent one and can be discussed further. Numismatic premium is always an important topic for coin collection. 

Online KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1727
  • Karma: 54
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #92 on: September 01, 2015, 05:06:00 PM »
I try to stay out of this fracas ..... BUT, KOT, you are being inflammatory and antagonistic. (KOT does not mean keep the flame going.)  Both davidt and mirkkanen have been around this forum a lot longer than you. Let's show them a little respect and tone down.

Respectfully, I ask that you review recent posts from davidt. He has shown an utter lack of respect when addressing highly respected members of this forum such as poconopenn. He also does not spare others from his disdain.

I intervened yesterday when he started raising questions regarding the integrity of pioneer members and administrative staff, in short the whole forum. I was particularly not comfortable with his attempting to drag the founder of this forum into the whole situation. Moreover, there were issues of law that he seemed unaware of or did not care about despite the fact that he had informed us all that he was referring matters to his attorney.

I don't necessarily mind what he says to me because I do not believe his attempts to otherize me will be successful. Rather, I wish that his disruptive influence on forum discussions be managed with a view to amelioration. This is where his fellow senior colleagues can be of great assistance.

Respectfully again and with kind regards.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline dynamike51

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 712
  • Karma: 41
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #93 on: September 01, 2015, 07:14:49 PM »
Respectfully, I ask that you review recent posts from davidt. He has shown an utter lack of respect when addressing highly respected members of this forum such as poconopenn. He also does not spare others from his disdain.

I intervened yesterday when he started raising questions regarding the integrity of pioneer members and administrative staff, in short the whole forum. I was particularly not comfortable with his attempting to drag the founder of this forum into the whole situation. Moreover, there were issues of law that he seemed unaware of or did not care about despite the fact that he had informed us all that he was referring matters to his attorney.

I don't necessarily mind what he says to me because I do not believe his attempts to otherize me will be successful. Rather, I wish that his disruptive influence on forum discussions be managed with a view to amelioration. This is where his fellow senior colleagues can be of great assistance.

Respectfully again and with kind regards.

Two wrong doesn't make one right. Other members can very well speak for themselves without your provocation. Nuff said.

"Othersize"? What's that?

Online KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1727
  • Karma: 54
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #94 on: September 01, 2015, 08:59:00 PM »
Two wrong doesn't make one right. Other members can very well speak for themselves without your provocation. Nuff said.

"Othersize"? What's that?
Otherize: treating someone in manner that says "he is not one of us".

According to his post I am something like an apparachnic brought in to raise the posting count of CCF. I must have a double identity (such as they have had here in the past!). Somehow someone who posts frequently must have some hidden motive. The posts do not have substance. There has to be something fishy about a frequent poster. I am just here to chat! Etc.

It is laughable in concept but deadly in practice. Sounds crazy. It is used in spheres of human endeavor. May be classed as a tool of psychological warfare. Has maximum deniability: "Oh that wasn't what I meant"!

The "other". To "otherize". "Otherization".
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #95 on: September 01, 2015, 09:03:38 PM »
Damn KOT.  Where did you learn those big words? I need to go back to school.  Do you have the dictionary memorized?  I need to pull out a dictionary to understand 3/4 of the words you use.  Wowza. #headspinning.

Offline Wafdawg

  • Trade Count: (+5)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 186
  • Karma: 6
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #96 on: September 01, 2015, 09:15:45 PM »
I'm really glad I stumbled upon this thread because I just commented on this very topic on LBC. And I feel that the commentary here has reemphazised my position.  Speculative, thinly traded, illiquid, and new releases with no long term track record. I would rather accumulate pandas all day long.

andrewlee10

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #97 on: September 01, 2015, 09:39:49 PM »
Just want to present the records and the truth. If my memory serve me correct, birdman and SANDC were not the moderator during the period from June 15, 2011 to Aug. 26, 2011. At that time, the only moderator was located in H.K. and ex-administrator had total control of this forum. This seller and ex-administrator were banned permanently from this Forum at the same time.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3181.0 (June 15, 2011)

1989 3.3 oz silver God of War and Wealth clouded claw NCS NGC PF 69 UC
Ebay/PayPal price: $6200
check/money order price: $5650
cash price: $5150
NCS conserved. Population estimate less than 200. Rarely seen investment grade.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3424.0 (July 8, 2011)

1989 3.3 oz silver God of War and Wealth clouded claw NCS NGC PF 69 UC
Ebay/PayPal price: $6200
check/money order price: $5650
cash price: $5150
Population estimate less than 200. Rarely seen investment grade.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3452.0 (July 12, 2011)

1989 3.3 oz silver God of War and Wealth clouded claw NCS NGC PF 69 UC
Ebay/PayPal price: $6200
check/money order price: $5650
cash price: $5150
Population estimate less than 200. Rarely seen investment grade

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3725.0 (Aug. 15, 2011)

1984 20 g silver ancient pagoda temple 4 coin set NCS NGC PF 68 UC
Ebay/PayPal price: $14,000
check/money order price: $12,500
cash price: $10,000
Mintage 260, many melted.

1984 20 g silver ancient pagoda temple 4 coin set NCS NGC PF 69 UC
Ebay/PayPal price: $31,000
check/money order price: $28,500
cash price: $26,000
Mintage 260, many melted.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3811.0 (Aug. 26, 2011)

1984 20 g silver ancient pagoda temple 4 coin set NCS NGC PF 68 UC
Ebay/PayPal price: $14,000
check/money order price: $12,500
cash price: $10,000
Mintage 260, many melted.

1984 20 g silver ancient pagoda temple 4 coin set NCS NGC PF 69 UC
Ebay/PayPal price: $31,000
check/money order price: $28,500
cash price: $26,000
Mintage 260, many melted.



He put in seller section.

I view seller can just name their price as they like. Buyer buy it or not is not his decision.

Willing buyer and willing seller nothings to blame as cited in this thread by few of us.

If he make false information on the selling section that another case.

I view either CCF take out the selling section or every members must give profile to avoid future issue.

Offline davidt3251

  • Trade Count: (+6)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 504
  • Karma: 5
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #98 on: September 01, 2015, 09:41:24 PM »
Respectfully, I ask that you review recent posts from davidt. He has shown an utter lack of respect when addressing highly respected members of this forum such as poconopenn. He also does not spare others from his disdain.

I intervened yesterday when he started raising questions regarding the integrity of pioneer members and administrative staff, in short the whole forum. I was particularly not comfortable with his attempting to drag the founder of this forum into the whole situation. Moreover, there were issues of law that he seemed unaware of or did not care about despite the fact that he had informed us all that he was referring matters to his attorney.

I don't necessarily mind what he says to me because I do not believe his attempts to otherize me will be successful. Rather, I wish that his disruptive influence on forum discussions be managed with a view to amelioration. This is where his fellow senior colleagues can be of great assistance.

Respectfully again and with kind regards.


KOT

I have news for you friend. Respect is earned. So when I private message the owner of this site several times about slanderous and bullying behavior and get zero replies, yet you people engage in backslapping each other because you say you're doing an impeccable job of moderating, it underscores how much respect you still need to earn.

Oh yeah. Look at the title of this thread. It was started by me. If you don't like it, then get off my thread! Your continued posting in my thread is an tacit endorsement of my writings.

davidt3251

andrewlee10

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #99 on: September 01, 2015, 09:49:49 PM »
I'm really glad I stumbled upon this thread because I just commented on this very topic on LBC. And I feel that the commentary here has reemphazised my position.  Speculative, thinly traded, illiquid, and new releases with no long term track record. I would rather accumulate pandas all day long.

Certain MCC is hold by one dealer in pile. Is this diff. with CBB?

I cannot disclosure the MCC type and who hold a pile of it. It is their rice bowl and their investment on it is few mio dollars or more.

Online KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1727
  • Karma: 54
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #100 on: September 01, 2015, 09:55:42 PM »
Damn KOT.  Where did you learn those big words? I need to go back to school.  Do you have the dictionary memorized?  I need to pull out a dictionary to understand 3/4 of the words you use.  Wowza. #headspinning.

Sorry Bob. No harm meant.  N16 N17 :lol:
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #101 on: September 01, 2015, 10:05:34 PM »

Offline dynamike51

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 712
  • Karma: 41
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #102 on: September 01, 2015, 10:26:04 PM »
Damn KOT.  Where did you learn those big words? I need to go back to school.  Do you have the dictionary memorized?  I need to pull out a dictionary to understand 3/4 of the words you use.  Wowza. #headspinning.

I think he's using this forum to practice writing - making up words as he went along.

Online KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1727
  • Karma: 54
  • Gender: Male
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #103 on: September 01, 2015, 10:38:05 PM »
I think he's using this forum to practice writing - making up words as he went along.

Probably a scrabble champion! KOT means?
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline pandamonium

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2103
  • Karma: 28
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #104 on: September 01, 2015, 10:56:49 PM »
I agree with Peter, especially on the last paragraph. One point I want to add about base metal circulating coins is that they are known to everybody in China and have a much larger collector base. The membership of the circulating coin collection site coin001.com grew from 20,000 when I joined it in mid 2013, to about 80,000 now. This rapid expansion of the collector base is driving up the prices of base metal coins. I have met with some people who started base metal coin collection by searching through their pocket change and noticed something weird about the coins (doubled dies, very late die state, cracked dies, die rotation, cuds and so on). This advantage of popularity, in addition to the extremely low entry point, contributes to the rise of the circulating coins, the collection of which, by the way, has a much shorter history than precious metal coins. Serious base metal coin collection in China started only this century.



Fwang, i have been tracking ebay for the Rare dates, Key and Semi Key dates aluminum circ coins for the last month.   All the UNC have sold.  Someone is buying them up quick now and i do not see new ones listed.  Prices for the Key and Semi Key UNC were under $10 for most, but those low prices should come to a end.....Peter posted the highest returns were for brass, aluminum coins and medals.....   

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 885
  • Karma: 199
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #105 on: September 01, 2015, 11:24:52 PM »
Certain MCC is hold by one dealer in pile. Is this diff. with CBB?
I cannot disclosure the MCC type and who hold a pile of it. It is their rice bowl and their investment on it is few mio dollars or more.

Yes there are many collectors/investors with multi-million dollar collections of gold pandas, but those collections can be easily be absorbed by the market, because gold panda are primarily owned by investors and other investors have plenty discretionary money to invest.  On the other hand, medals and other collectible coins are owned by collectors, collectors budgets are often limited and they are content owning 1 piece, possibly a few pieces if the price is right, but not looking to buy $100K at time or 50 of the same type of coin.  If you want to own a big collection of anything, liquidity is very important.

andrewlee10

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #106 on: September 01, 2015, 11:34:16 PM »
Yes there are many collectors/investors with multi-million dollar collections of gold pandas, but those collections can be easily be absorbed by the market, because gold panda are primarily owned by investors and other investors have plenty discretionary money to invest.  On the other hand, medals and other collectible coins are owned by collectors, collectors budgets are often limited and they are content owning 1 piece, possibly a few pieces if the price is right, but not looking to buy $100K at time or 50 of the same type of coin.  If you want to own a big collection of anything, liquidity is very important.

Yes Arif Gold panda is most liquid MCC except the big size proof gold panda.

I am referring certain silver MCC especially Lunar which hold by one or few dealers to wait for price spike.

Certain 5 Yuan 1/2 silver panda also speculate by dealers as my knowledge.

Which dealer  hold 150 pieces of 83 silver proof panda ? PF69 is around 3K and even more in ebay. Do the dealers play stunt on it and make the hype? It fact, I believe certain hype make by dealer is sustainable as long as there are enough demand and land into strong hand.

As I remember David did sold 2 set proof panda near spot rate recently. I assume he made a loss BUT good point is liquidity is there if you need money.

what the chance and time to liquidate 1Kg 10th anniversary silver as compare to gold bullion panda? The answer is gold bullion panda will sell fast as compare to 1 kg 10th anniv silver panda. The numic premium of the KG silver is high and less liquidity to gold bullion panda.

I view the gold panda investors/collectors have diff. investment appetite and profile to other MCC. For me, I diversify.   

Offline fwang2450

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+5)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1010
  • Karma: 172
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #107 on: September 02, 2015, 12:28:13 AM »


Fwang, i have been tracking ebay for the Rare dates, Key and Semi Key dates aluminum circ coins for the last month.   All the UNC have sold.  Someone is buying them up quick now and i do not see new ones listed.  Prices for the Key and Semi Key UNC were under $10 for most, but those low prices should come to a end.....Peter posted the highest returns were for brass, aluminum coins and medals.....  
eBay is not the place to track Chinese circulating coins, as there are very few there. Also, please do not look at the price of "UNC" coins. Condition matters more in circulating coins than in precious metal coins. Those selling under $10 are not keydates or are in really poor condition. Check here for recent sold listings on coin001.com: http://coin001.com/hack.php?H_name=auction&auction_status=3&1=1. You will be surprised to see that the the 1 Yuan cuni Xinjiang commemorative coin is priced higher now than the 10 Yuan silver coin from the same set.

Offline pandamonium

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2103
  • Karma: 28
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #108 on: September 02, 2015, 07:48:00 AM »
The 1 Y is higher priced than the high demand 10 Y silver Xinjiang?    Wow.  I noticed the silver has dropped in price.   Some time ago i posted photos of my 1985 Tibet cu ni on this forum hoping it was a business strike but it is not.   Back then i paid a few bucks for it as i could not afford the design on the silver.   Today the price for the Tibet cu ni is about $75 to over $100 on ebay.    That means the 1987 Inner Mongolia cu ni is the next to go up in price.   You have a translated post about these.                    Ebay is the only place for us in the US to look for circ coins.   Have looked at the past UNC Key Dates and Semi Keys and they all look good quality.   Most on ebay are circulated and have many dings, easy to see.   The prices of about $10 for UNC Keys are over as they can only go up.   Some asking prices are sky high as the quality drops to circulated.   The last two UNC 1980 5 Fen Rare Dates raw sold for over $100 each w/ fingerprints.   I think the Rare will continue to climb and the Key Dates will be next to go up as supply is gone.  There is one 1980 5 Fen Rare Date MS 66? on ebay for $300.   There are four MS 64 Rare on ebay for $775.   Supply is so low even the crummy ones are asking higher prices.   At this point i would recommend buying Key Dates and Semi Keys UNC.   Condition does matter as aluminium should be easy to damage.   What a great market to be involved in.......

Offline fwang2450

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+5)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1010
  • Karma: 172
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #109 on: September 02, 2015, 09:58:08 AM »
In a discussion with a precious metal coin collector 2 years ago, I predicted that the Xinjiang and Tibt 20th Anniversary cuni coins would catch up and overtake their silver counterparts. He absolutely could not get it. This has happened, with more base metal collectors joining the ranks.

Offline pandamonium

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2103
  • Karma: 28
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #110 on: September 02, 2015, 03:33:52 PM »
Do you have another prediction?  What do you see in the near future gaining demand?.....

Offline PandaCollector

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+5)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2505
  • Karma: 80
  • Gender: Male
    • Pandacollector.com
Re: Why Copper/Brass/Bronze MCC will outperform Precious Metals MCC
« Reply #111 on: September 02, 2015, 06:22:29 PM »
eBay is not the place to track Chinese circulating coins, as there are very few there. Also, please do not look at the price of "UNC" coins. Condition matters more in circulating coins than in precious metal coins. Those selling under $10 are not keydates or are in really poor condition. Check here for recent sold listings on coin001.com: http://coin001.com/hack.php?H_name=auction&auction_status=3&1=1. You will be surprised to see that the the 1 Yuan cuni Xinjiang commemorative coin is priced higher now than the 10 Yuan silver coin from the same set.

Prices for these coins (and other notable circulating coins) also appear each month in China Pricepedia.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com