Author Topic: 1997 All Over Again?  (Read 11251 times)

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Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: 1997 All Over Again?
« Reply #15 on: August 24, 2015, 06:34:27 PM »
I have a basic wish that each country does well and caters for the needs of it's citizens. The current economic uncertainties do not fill me with glee and I hope that sustained recovery will start sooner rather than later. Others' misfortune has a way of going around!

This is not the first time that we have been through this type of chaos and resultant anxiety. Nor is it going to be the last. The road to prosperity and economic stability is not a straight one; it is almost like simple harmonic motion with smoothening towards the mean.

There is also no ideal governing system; each country must chose which ever system that makes sense for its immediate and medium term needs, with a gradual implementation of longterm plans. Exporting western style democracy to other countries has a checkered record at the best. More realistically it dismantles without replacing the indigenous system with something equally robust. We have seen the track record of mayhem that has been unleashed in various parts of the world as a result of this political engineering that has been going on for more than 200 years. No, China and every other country have to adopt economic and political systems that make sense to their local needs with special reference to custom and tradition.

No one has all the answers. It is only with continued efforts and stable governments that leaders will continue to craft policies to protect indigenes and lift them forward towards a shared prosperity.
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Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: 1997 All Over Again?
« Reply #16 on: August 24, 2015, 06:43:26 PM »
And come to think of it, China has had a positive economic impact on large swathes of the world as we know it. Ranging from Africa to Asia, Europe and America, Australia and many other countries.
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Offline jc888888888

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Re: 1997 All Over Again?
« Reply #17 on: August 24, 2015, 07:59:03 PM »
China is far from stable.

If the Chinese economy is stable why are 1500 companies halted for trading on the stock exchange? That doesn't happen in countries like the US, Canada, UK, Germany, Australia, Japan. Thats not stable.

As for your foreign exchange argument, oanda.com shows a clear depreciation (not appreciation) of the CAD to the RMB the past 25 months, from $1 CAD buying 5.98 on July 25, 2013 to $1 CAD buying only $4.87 RMB today, approximately a 20% devaluation of the CAD vs the RMB.

The Chinese economy has proven itself to be a giant ponzi scheme. The rapid flow of funds out of China after their stock market crash literally forced the central bank's hand. At least by depreciating the yuan they can make the foreign currency the outflow receives worth less.

China isn't buying more commodities, in general, right now. There was a huge surge before the Beijing Olympics for infrastructure which is now over, and consequently the Chinese buy less. My friend is the Chairman of an Australian company which had a deal with a Chinese state owned enterprise (SOE) to develop a Bauxite resource in Western Australia. The SOE committed to spending $2.5bn on the mine.

Now they are dead broke and want out. First they begged to be let off the hook for free (Chinese generally don't think they need to honor contracts). They created a rumor that there could be a breakup fee of $15m. The Auzzies plan to sue.

Chinese SOEs are the equivalent of the Chinese government. $2.5m to dead broke isn't stable.

The Chinese better be careful what they wish for if they want to be the reserve currency. Look at the mess that created for the US.

As for the world, we have become too reliant on this Chinese house of cards and its collapse is accelerating.

Your analysis doesnt hold water.


Exactly ,a house of cards!!! . RMB world dominating currency :) that is a joke!! the whole shenanigans is unraveling ,the whole bunch who run the show are not to be trusted,you need to be able to put your full faith in a government before you start investing your wealth there why do you think the Chinese govt has invested billions in US t bills:)      the government allow their cronies to store toxic materials that are extremely explosive in a densely populated area it blows up, it levels several city blocks cars are melted beyond recognition a half of a kilometer away and the government reports 100 +- people dead   please 10 times that where evaporated .......it is business as usual in mainland China ....    people are extremely misguided when it comes to how that system works to sum it up it is pretty lawless ...  I love the Chinese people but what there government routinely does to them is criminal.


Offline jc888888888

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Re: 1997 All Over Again?
« Reply #18 on: August 24, 2015, 08:16:07 PM »
As far as China effecting the US stock market .....simply put the US stock market is going through a natural correction after an overextended bull market,  it needed a reason to do it and China was it. my prediction for the US market,it goes another 500 to 1000 pts down  3 to 5 % and the market goes right back into bull market mode .. Smart move on the long position David I was in a meeting when that intra day low hit 15,200 .. I love that entry level :)    prediction # 2 Shanghai exchange goes down another 40% into a panic and shakes out all the heavily leveraged margin poor retail investors as they lose their life savings waiting for the Chinese govt to rescue them. It never happens, all the smart money is out of that ponsi scheme, all the government boys are for sure out .they enticed those poor suckers into that scam a year ago with the propaganda they spewed about how the good people of china should invest there money in the market ......... like Lemmings going to the sea..  very sad