Author Topic: Grading standard of NGC and PCGS  (Read 13812 times)

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Offline silverpv

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Re: Grading standard of NGC and PCGS
« Reply #30 on: August 18, 2016, 02:02:17 AM »
is it possible that people who are in the know who cherry pick coins send better looking coins to NGC and people don't send better coins to PCGS? I know for a fact that I personally pick every coin that goes to NGC. The folks that 'typically' send to pcgs aren't as careful and just send it there because that is where they prefer. As a collector of pandas, I scrutinize each panda i send in, especially 1/10 oz. I'm not in to 1982-1993 but i do have ms70's which were recently graded from 1994-2016. Not to say there aren't bulk dealers. but your data shows higher percentage to ms69 and less per volume to ngc for 1/10 pandas. I can't speak to lunars. Is it better marketing or is it this forum? lol. i can tell you for a fact i sent in 150+ coins in the last 8 months 80% 1/10 pandas that doesn't include other members like moosician and jc8888 who also send in coins in bulk. I'm hesitant to say its marketing. I think people that know just send better coins to NGC.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Grading standard of NGC and PCGS
« Reply #31 on: August 18, 2016, 06:44:11 PM »
is it possible that people who are in the know who cherry pick coins send better looking coins to NGC and people don't send better coins to PCGS? I know for a fact that I personally pick every coin that goes to NGC. The folks that 'typically' send to pcgs aren't as careful and just send it there because that is where they prefer. As a collector of pandas, I scrutinize each panda i send in, especially 1/10 oz. I'm not in to 1982-1993 but i do have ms70's which were recently graded from 1994-2016. Not to say there aren't bulk dealers. but your data shows higher percentage to ms69 and less per volume to ngc for 1/10 pandas. I can't speak to lunars. Is it better marketing or is it this forum? lol. i can tell you for a fact i sent in 150+ coins in the last 8 months 80% 1/10 pandas that doesn't include other members like moosician and jc8888 who also send in coins in bulk. I'm hesitant to say its marketing. I think people that know just send better coins to NGC.

The practice of cherry picking of better condition coin to submit to grading companies has been done for many years by collectors. The following table for the comparison of the coins graded in last two years by NGC and PCGS vs. the coins graded prior to 8/2014 shows clearly that NGC has lowered its grading standard, while PCGS may tighten its grading standard for pandas during last two years.

The domination of NGC over PCGS in the market share of grading MCC has many factors. The better chance to receive a higher grade is just one of the factor. Other factors, such as lower grading fee and shorter turnaround time, mentioned by Arif in reply #3 are also very important factors.

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Grading standard of NGC and PCGS
« Reply #32 on: August 18, 2016, 08:13:51 PM »
The practice of cherry picking of better condition coin to submit to grading companies has been done for many years by collectors. The following table for the comparison of the coins graded in last two years by NGC and PCGS vs. the coins graded prior to 8/2014 shows clearly that NGC has lowered its grading standard, while PCGS may tighten its grading standard for pandas during last two years.

The domination of NGC over PCGS in the market share of grading MCC has many factors. The better chance to receive a higher grade is just one of the factor. Other factors, such as lower grading fee and shorter turnaround time, mentioned by Arif in reply #3 are also very important factors.


I don't find that this data supports the conclusion. For instance, it doesn't account for changes in the sources for the raw coins. The more coins that are shipped, or transshipped, directly from the Mint to a grading company the higher I would expect the grades to be. If you grade more First Releases than previously, the grades will rise in tandem with quality advances at the Mints. I would even venture that which Mint provides the coins may affect the grade curve to some degree.

Both companies are constantly expanding in China and establishing new relationships. As the mix of material submitted changes, so will the grade curve. There are too many other potential factors  to attribute the above numbers to changes in grading standards.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com



Offline poconopenn

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Re: Grading standard of NGC and PCGS
« Reply #33 on: August 18, 2016, 11:46:43 PM »
I don't find that this data supports the conclusion. For instance, it doesn't account for changes in the sources for the raw coins. The more coins that are shipped, or transshipped, directly from the Mint to a grading company the higher I would expect the grades to be. If you grade more First Releases than previously, the grades will rise in tandem with quality advances at the Mints. I would even venture that which Mint provides the coins may affect the grade curve to some degree.

Both companies are constantly expanding in China and establishing new relationships. As the mix of material submitted changes, so will the grade curve. There are too many other potential factors  to attribute the above numbers to changes in grading standards.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com




The three series mentioned herein are coins issued before 2000, at least 15 years old. None of them has ever shipped directly from Mint to grading companies. None of them ever graded as first or early release either. IMO, unlike recent issued MCC, the chance of bulk submission by few large dealers, asking for coins being graded only if it is higher than 69, is very limited, since they are dealing with newly issued coins only, not pre-2000 MCC. For example, NGC graded 1/10 oz. gold panda is 1894, for duration of 2 years and covering 12 different dates. This is about average of 6.6 coins/date/month, therefore, most likely, the majority of the coins were submitted in small batch from collectors or small dealers. The chance of involving a large submission to distort the data is very limited. The data, which cover three different series and showing the identical trend, is good enough for me to conclude that NGC has lowered its grading standard during last two years.
   
SANDC also presented data to show the significant increase of 70 for some pre-2000 culture coins in the following thread.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=10647.0 (Reply #7 and #9)

Online KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Grading standard of NGC and PCGS
« Reply #34 on: August 19, 2016, 01:11:39 AM »
Do you have data on 1oz gold panda pre-2000.  I agree it has been easier to get NGC ms69 1/10 and 1/20, but 1oz and 1/2oz NGC has really tighten up.  1/4 are about the same over the years. 

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Grading standard of NGC and PCGS
« Reply #35 on: August 19, 2016, 01:17:19 PM »
The three series mentioned herein are coins issued before 2000, at least 15 years old. None of them has ever shipped directly from Mint to grading companies. None of them ever graded as first or early release either. IMO, unlike recent issued MCC, the chance of bulk submission by few large dealers, asking for coins being graded only if it is higher than 69, is very limited, since they are dealing with newly issued coins only, not pre-2000 MCC. For example, NGC graded 1/10 oz. gold panda is 1894, for duration of 2 years and covering 12 different dates. This is about average of 6.6 coins/date/month, therefore, most likely, the majority of the coins were submitted in small batch from collectors or small dealers. The chance of involving a large submission to distort the data is very limited. The data, which cover three different series and showing the identical trend, is good enough for me to conclude that NGC has lowered its grading standard during last two years.
    
SANDC also presented data to show the significant increase of 70 for some pre-2000 culture coins in the following thread.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=10647.0 (Reply #7 and #9)


There is at least one source (maybe more) that submits, or has submitted, high volumes of original sheets of pre-2000 gold coins to NGC for grading during the last several years. For some dates this one source, whose coins often are in superb condition, represents a significant part of the total coins for the date and will skew the data.

Bulk submissions to NGC of older coins have occurred in the recent past.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Grading standard of NGC and PCGS
« Reply #36 on: August 19, 2016, 10:37:54 PM »
There is at least one source (maybe more) that submits, or has submitted, high volumes of original sheets of pre-2000 gold coins to NGC for grading during the last several years. For some dates this one source, whose coins often are in superb condition, represents a significant part of the total coins for the date and will skew the data.

Bulk submissions to NGC of older coins have occurred in the recent past.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

1984 has the highest and 1988 has the second highest in increasing the % of 69 during last two years. Assuming someone did submit sheets of high quality coins during last two years, I excluded data for 1984 and 1988 in the calculation. The new result still suggest the same conclusion that NGC has lowered the grading standard during last two years.

There is correction made in the Table, the mintage of 1984 is 143062, not 43062 as given in the previous posted Table.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Grading standard of NGC and PCGS
« Reply #37 on: August 19, 2016, 11:01:31 PM »
Do you have data on 1oz gold panda pre-2000.  I agree it has been easier to get NGC ms69 1/10 and 1/20, but 1oz and 1/2oz NGC has really tighten up.  1/4 are about the same over the years.  

I do not have data for pre-2000 1 oz. gold panda.

Attached is a Table for updated 1/2 oz. gold panda for the period of 1982-1993. The results suggest that NGC has changed the grading standard very slightly during last two years, but not statistical significant as observed in the other series. However, the number of 70 has increased more than previous years.
 
Again, similar to 1/10 oz. gold panda, the combined NGC and PCGS graded coins is only 0.75% of total mintage. In general, the % of graded coin for other commemorative and culture series will be in the range of 4-10% of the mintage.

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Grading standard of NGC and PCGS
« Reply #38 on: August 20, 2016, 11:31:11 AM »
I do not have data for pre-2000 1 oz. gold panda.

Attached is a Table for updated 1/2 oz. gold panda for the period of 1982-1993. The results suggest that NGC has changed the grading standard very slightly during last two years, but not statistical significant as observed in the other series. However, the number of 70 has increased more than previous years.
 
Again, similar to 1/10 oz. gold panda, the combined NGC and PCGS graded coins is only 0.75% of total mintage. In general, the % of graded coin for other commemorative and culture series will be in the range of 4-10% of the mintage.

What is the statistical margin for error here?

I ask because based on my experience and conversations, I'm dubious that either NGC or PCGS has made a policy decision to tighten or loosen grading standards, regardless of some fluctuations in the numbers. I know the chief graders (and others) at both companies and I think they would be amused by this conversation. It doesn't add up. Everyone else is equally free to draw his or her own conclusions. I also thank Poconopenn for caring enough about the field to sort through and analyze the data even if I am at odds with the conclusion he draws.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com


Online KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Grading standard of NGC and PCGS
« Reply #39 on: August 20, 2016, 12:34:46 PM »
Another explanation for different grading results between two companies is the average experience of the submitter.  As the number show roughly 90% of the market share is with NGC.  In my opinion submitters that submit to NGC are more in tuned with what the Chinese market wants and are more knowledgable about Chinese coins so they are more likely to pre screen coins for submissions.  Those that are submitting to PCGS are clueless about the toning/hazing issues, price difference in coins values between the two companies and probably don't prescreen coins prior to submission. 

From my experience of cross over I can tell you which company graded tougher in their mind.  From 2008-2010, NGC would crossover 90% of my PCGS coins to NGC, while PCGS would crossover 60% of NGC coins to PCGS.  From 2012-2015 NGC would crossover 50% of my PCGS coins to NGC, while PCGS would crossover 100% of NGC coins to PCGS.

Over the last 10 years PCGS grading standards have declined in general for all world and US coins, I know dealers that seek out old PCGS slabs and submit for regrading because the old slab coins were graded too tough and under the new guidelines they often get a point higher for ms62-ms66 range old coins.

I do believe grading distribution change, whether it is from the top down or bottom up, I have witnessed it with my own eyes many times during the years.  At the same time I know many other factors affect grading pops that making conclusions from just distribution will lead to fales conclusions.  For example, I have roughly 200 slab labels ms67-69 that I need to submit back to the grading company for removal from pop reports, when I sell coins to China I break the slab and keep the grading label so that coin can be removed from the pop reports.  When I crossover coins the grading company sends me the old label back, I submit those back to the grading company. Companies pay between 25-50 cents per label to motivate members to keep pop reports accurate. 

Offline Wafdawg

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Re: Grading standard of NGC and PCGS
« Reply #40 on: August 20, 2016, 03:07:57 PM »
Anecdotally speaking, we live in an era of dilution where we have lower standards all across the board, not just in coin grading.  My assumption without looking at statistics is that both NGC and PCGS standards are lower today than they were yesterday and will be lower tomorrow than they are today.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Grading standard of NGC and PCGS
« Reply #41 on: August 20, 2016, 03:50:06 PM »
For example, about 2 yrs ago there was NGC pop of 3 for the 1985 PF 69 Hong Kong Expo 5 oz silver panda.    Today there are 7.    I see more large silver getting 69 grades where in the past this did not happen........

Offline silverpv

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Re: Grading standard of NGC and PCGS
« Reply #42 on: August 20, 2016, 04:14:34 PM »
For example, about 2 yrs ago there was NGC pop of 3 for the 1985 PF 69 Hong Kong Expo 5 oz silver panda.    Today there are 7.    I see more large silver getting 69 grades where in the past this did not happen........

That doesn't mean the grades are relaxed. It could just be the volume has increased quite a bit and there's more awareness of NCS.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Grading standard of NGC and PCGS
« Reply #43 on: August 20, 2016, 05:03:44 PM »
Thanks, arif and pandacollector, for a very healthy discussion.

The conclusion reached is based on the comparison of NGC graded 69 coins during last two years vs. previous years (more than 10). The cherry picking, NCS conservation and sheet submission are just as common for the period of pre-2014 as last two years.
 
If I remember correctly, NCS started its business in 1994. The ex-administrator as well as many members of this forum has recommended the advantage of NCS conservation, therefore, the improvement of grading for many years, as early as 2009. Therefore, the effects of NCS conservation on the grading results for this two periods will be very limited, unless NGC has an improved method in coin conservation and resulting in a better looking coin during last few years.

It is a reasonable assumption that the available of "genuine" sheet in the market place in the last two years will be less than pre-2014 for pre-2000 MCC. There is no reason to believe the recent submitted sheets have a better quality than those submitted pre-2014.

The effects of resubmission of grade coin on the accuracy of the population report is very limited. Assuming 2% of the graded coin resubmitted and all of them has not been registered in the population report, the data of population report will not change too much to alter the conclusion.
 
It is the consensus of this forum that the quality of the coin will be lower if the coin kept in the PVC pouch is longer, without a proper storage environment. This may have some truth, the average grade for earlier MCC is significantly lower than recent issued coins which have graded about 95% better than 69 for coins issued during the period of 2001-2010 and 99% better than 69 after 2010. If this consensus is correct, the grade of those earlier MCC during last two years shall be lower than those coins graded in the earlier years. The results suggest otherwise. The only feasible explanation is NGC has lowered its grading standard.

SANDC had observed the increase of 70 for six different pre-2000 silver culture coins and ½ oz. silver pandas as early as 2012. 

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=10647.0 (Reply #7 and #9)