Author Topic: Has NGC recently loosened standards for 70 grades?  (Read 7754 times)

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Offline NumiKat

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Has NGC recently loosened standards for 70 grades?
« on: July 27, 2014, 12:44:44 PM »
I'm curious whether other people have noticed any recent loosening in NGC's grading standards for 70 grades.

Last week, I noticed the following additions to the NGC census:

  • For the first time ever, a 1983 silver panda was graded as PF 70 (out of about 600)
  • For the first time ever, a 2001 no D silver panda was graded as MS 70 (out of about 1,900)

I did not look systematically at all of the other coins in the census to see what else was updated. However, these two coins stuck out because their populations in grades 69 and lower had been growing without a single 70 for many years. How can this dual occurrence within a single week be explained? The only explanations I can come up with are (a) one grader was having a really good day and was particularly lenient; or (b) NGC has lowered its grading standards overall. Either explanation would seem a bit troubling for MCC collectors...  N20

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Has NGC recently loosened standards for 70 grades?
« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2014, 01:04:11 PM »
One grader cannot create a 70. There has to be concensus between at least two graders about determination of a grade.

Is it impossible to imagine that there is an unflawed coin out there that has yet to be submitted, and that when it does, it will get a 70? Until my submission last year, there had never been a 1989 1/10 LD GOLD PANDA 70. Times change. Now there are two, or three?

Offline jc888888888

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Re: Has NGC recently loosened standards for 70 grades?
« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2014, 06:34:37 PM »
I grade a fair amount of coins every month........... i do not see any loosening of standards:)

Offline geoxxx

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Re: Has NGC recently loosened standards for 70 grades?
« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2014, 08:10:44 AM »
Personally, I have noticed a lot of PCGS ms70's coming out of China since they recently opened their office there.
Is it just me or have others notices the same ?

Offline NBM

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Re: Has NGC recently loosened standards for 70 grades?
« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2014, 04:25:13 PM »
Personally, I have noticed a lot of PCGS ms70's coming out of China since they recently opened their office there.
Is it just me or have others notices the same ?
PCGS and NGC.
The flood is... thought provoking.

Offline PandaOrLunar

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Re: Has NGC recently loosened standards for 70 grades?
« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2014, 05:56:38 PM »
I noticed in my area when a new chain restaurant opened, corporate will staffed that restaurant with the "best" and offered incentive during the 1st week or so.  After the 1st week, everything go downhill.

Offline silverstar1

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Re: Has NGC recently loosened standards for 70 grades?
« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2014, 05:04:30 PM »
Im not seeing any loosening of NGC standards , there could be many rare coins sitting in a vault somewhere that would grade a 70 just depends if they get submitted.

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Has NGC recently loosened standards for 70 grades?
« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2014, 07:05:30 PM »
My interest in MCC centered around the cultural issues prior to yr 2000.  Most of the affordable cultural issues are silver 5 yuan (S5Y) so consequently I have collected about 2-1/2 years of NGC weekly data on S5Y from 1984 to 1997.  I believe I have sufficient data now to answer the question of NGC grading standard with respect to S5Y from 1984 to 1997.  There are a lot of data collected so I won't bore you with them all.  I'll present sample results from 1/2oz panda, historical figures, Invention and discoveries, silk road, and ancient artifact.  The data presented are from end of 2011 to now.  NGC updates their census on a weekly basis, but the data are too noisy, so I only present the census data at the end of each month. 

The purple bars represent the monthly submission total and the turquoise line represents the total graded 70 as measured by the number scale at the left axis.  The red line represents the percentage of grade 70 in the total population as measured by the percentage scale on the right of the chart.

Conclusion:  Somewhere between mid-2012 and beginning of 2013 NGC relaxed their grading standard of S5Y and the number of 70 began to increase rapidly in 2013 and 2014.

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Has NGC recently loosened standards for 70 grades?
« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2014, 07:51:15 PM »
The upward slope of the blue line is clear in nearly all graphs, however, the % change in 70 populations is generally .5 to.1% for nearly all of the coins you specify, right? Do you consider this trend as significant?

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Has NGC recently loosened standards for 70 grades?
« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2014, 02:20:11 AM »
I was try to demonstrate how many 70's suddenly showed up with a steady progression of monthly submissions in 2013 and 2014.  What I failed to show is how many coins had already being graded before 2013 but yet there was very few 70's then.  So perhaps a different way to present the data is more effective:

It is the same data but show the total number of coins graded (purple) .vs. the cummulative number of 70's (red) over time.  Not all charts show the sudden rise of 70's clearly, e.g., the 1995 Silk Merchant seems normal, but the rest of them show a different rate of 70's growth in 2013 and 2014 compare to the first half of 2012 and before.  Look at the 1992 Cai Wenji, for an example, the number of 70's was zero in the end of July 2012 when 132 coins were already graded; then it rose quickly to nine today with 265 graded all the while the monthly submission rate was pretty much the same steady rate.

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Has NGC recently loosened standards for 70 grades?
« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2016, 09:21:08 PM »
My interest in MCC centered around the cultural issues prior to yr 2000.  Most of the affordable cultural issues are silver 5 yuan (S5Y) so consequently I have collected about 2-1/2 years of NGC weekly data on S5Y from 1984 to 1997.  I believe I have sufficient data now to answer the question of NGC grading standard with respect to S5Y from 1984 to 1997.  There are a lot of data collected so I won't bore you with them all.  I'll present sample results from 1/2oz panda, historical figures, Invention and discoveries, silk road, and ancient artifact.  The data presented are from end of 2011 to now.  NGC updates their census on a weekly basis, but the data are too noisy, so I only present the census data at the end of each month.  

The purple bars represent the monthly submission total and the turquoise line represents the total graded 70 as measured by the number scale at the left axis.  The red line represents the percentage of grade 70 in the total population as measured by the percentage scale on the right of the chart.

Conclusion:  Somewhere between mid-2012 and beginning of 2013 NGC relaxed their grading standard of S5Y and the number of 70 began to increase rapidly in 2013 and 2014.

I apologize for not responding to this sooner. I have personally seen a hoard of cultural coins that was sent in to NGC for grading during the time period in question. They were in better condition than I had ever encountered before and opened my eyes to the original quality of these coins. Prior to this I thought the mints' quality control during the time period had deteriorated. This hoard changed my mind.

Many came back from NGC as 70s. These coins belonged to a single person who had placed sheets away in a safe at the time of issue. I might add that these coins were distributed through a different sales channel that most other coins. From a quality standpoint, they probably weren't comparable to the majority of coins that had been previously graded; apples to oranges. I attribute the observed shift in grades to the emergence of this one hoard.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Has NGC recently loosened standards for 70 grades?
« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2016, 03:10:45 PM »
I apologize for not responding to this sooner. I have personally seen a hoard of cultural coins that was sent in to NGC for grading during the time period in question. They were in better condition than I had ever encountered before and opened my eyes to the original quality of these coins. Prior to this I thought the mints' quality control during the time period had deteriorated. This hoard changed my mind.

Many came back from NGC as 70s. These coins belonged to a single person who had placed sheets away in a safe at the time of issue. I might add that these coins were distributed through a different sales channel that most other coins. From a quality standpoint, they probably weren't comparable to the majority of coins that had been previously graded; apples to oranges. I attribute the observed shift in grades to the emergence of this one hoard.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com


I have examined the data provided by SANDC. As you mentioned, someone who had super quality sheets of Historical Figures coin might submit for grading during the same period to distort the data. The large increase of 70 can be easily identified in the curve and can be excluded in the calculation. For example, 1995 S5Y silk merchant, which has the highest percent of 70 among six coins posted by SANDC, shows a large increase during 6/28/2012 to 8/28/2012, perhaps in different submissions. The data after excluding this two months still shows a significant increase of 70 for this coin (after 6/28/2012) as shown in the attached Table. Similarly, after excluding May and June 2013 data for 1993 S5Y Bronze Ox Lantern, the relaxing of grading standard can still be clearly demonstrated.

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Has NGC recently loosened standards for 70 grades?
« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2016, 07:18:32 PM »
I think this is very interesting and intriguing. It is certainly relevant to how many examples of a specific coin and grade are available.
Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Has NGC recently loosened standards for 70 grades?
« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2016, 09:53:32 PM »
I read the discussion on relaxed grading standard (http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=10709.0 )with considerable interest but my busy summer gardening schedule prevents me from doing in-depth researches on the topic.  However, since my earlier study was quoted in the discussion a few times, I feel I should present another study, one that involves a few forum members/dealers who may shed more lights on their grading experiences.

First, a disclaimer:  I'm a small time and relatively new (since 2011) MCC collector.  I have not attended any major coin shows, I have not talked to coin dealers nor examined large number of coins.  I have no contacts in NGC other than my periodic coin submissions.  My opinion is solely based on my analysis of the weekly NGC census data which I've captured and studied as weekly (sometimes monthly) rolling census data.  In fact, I'd love to be wrong in my analysis!  This is because the vast majority of my MCC graded coins are NGC, of which a good number of them are MS/PF70.  My theory that NGC grade has been relaxed is really not good for the value of my own collection!

Let me present the case of the 2001D panda S10Y small D variety.  The variety is a relatively recent discovery in december of 2012: http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2193.0  My own study at the time showed they were ver very rare before large hoards were discovered.  In the early days of the discovery the price differential to the large D was so significant, that I believe just about every coins were submitted for the coveted variety designation.  Even MS68 commanded high price so I don't believe the submissions were pre-screened.  The small D is beautifully struck and kept in sheets so they graded very well.  To this date the NGC census shows there are only 2 MS68 and 1 MS67 out of 166 graded.  PCGS recognized the small D variety in 2013 and they graded them generously such that a number of NGC slabs were submitted to PCGS.  In Feb 2014 there was this snap shot of PCGS vs NGC small D census: (http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=10021.msg58468#msg58468 )

PCGS:
1 MS66
1 MS68
35 MS69
12 MS70 (24%)

NGC:
2 MS68
71 MS69
3 MS70 (4%)

It seems to me NGC relaxed its grade soon after that such that MS 70 population shot up to 10 (10 out 94 or 10%) in mid 2014 then to 20 (20 out 134 or 15%) in early 2015.  Presently it is 24 out 166 or 14%.  PCGS is still more generous with 16 MS 70 out of 73 graded or 22%

A few members on CCF who are close to the small D's distribution may shed more light on the nature of the hoard.  Were they one large hoard or several small hoards to account for the significantly different grade distribution?

Offline jc888888888

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Re: Has NGC recently loosened standards for 70 grades?
« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2016, 09:14:58 AM »
As some might know  ,I had a few sheets of small D (disclosure still have it is in my 7 year old twins stack :)  so they decide what happens to it) . Everyone can read the old threads . The first shot of these coins where in my hands and 1 or 2 others we inadvertently bought them as 2001 D and when some where sent to NGC they recognized and graded the small D variety. Then all hell broke loose .No one knows for sure how and why these where minted ..Then in 2014  1 PERSON a coin guy in Beijing china stumbled upon more .All of these where in untouched sheet form pristine. All those mid 2014 submission,s .where from 1 guy ,he used another dealer in Shanghai  and submitted both to NGC and PCGS simultaneously  and as you can see  he did it slowly TRYING NOT TO CRASH THE MARKET. there was apx 15 sheets found in another location seperate from the first hoard... this is first hand knowledge  Full disclosure I did buy limited amount of the second hoard .....they where from the same mint and had production slips inside the sheets all within the same month .