Author Topic: What's on your shelf?  (Read 33422 times)

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Offline PandaOrLunar

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Re: What's on your shelf?
« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2012, 06:36:46 PM »
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Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: What's on your shelf?
« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2012, 12:57:44 AM »
Bottom line="like what you collect, and collect what you like!" 100% agree about collecting, but 100% disagree about "bottom line" tag

Top Line: "like what you collect, and collect what you like!" Collecting gives one satisfaction of owning things that provide personal gratification, with little regard to investment potential.  Collecting is fun and a great hobby to pass time and build camaraderie.  Collecting cost money similar to buying a fancy car with little regard to future value of the purchase, but you get to enjoy your purchase everyday.  I used to collect baseball cards back in the 1980s, today they are worth much less than when I purchased them in the mid 80s, despite  keeping only cards in top grade with low populations.  I will continue to collect them because I enjoyed buying wax packs, sorting and grading cards as a teenager and even if they are only worth the paper they are printed on in the future, my living standard will not be impacted in any way.  This is collecting or owning someting you like with little regard to the future value.  I used to do it when I was young, I still do it as tiny faction of my income.  How much income you devote to collecting is a personal decision and should not be questioned by anyone. 

Bottom line: "invest in what is undervalued, sell what is overvalued"  Investing is finding opportunities in which the market opinion of the masses is incorrect, but at some point will be corrected or at least improved upon.  Books, COAs, blogs, forum, etc provide a guide to what the masses believe.  The more popular a book or forum is, the more likely it is an excellent representation of the market view.  All books,  COAs, blogs, forum, etc are going to be proven wrong as the market matures and as more coins get graded, however, in the meantime there are abundant opportunities to "front run" inaccurate mintage estimate based on your OWN research of the market, while making outstanding returns in the process.  For example, in the summer of 2011 I put up a 1979 year of child silver piefort on ebay for $45,000 Best Offer and an estimated mintage of 100-200 vs published mintage of 2000 (Mr. Gee book and Red Book).  I got several emails from people wanting to buy the coin at $10,000-$15,000 with the statement that I am misrepresenting the mintage of the coin by a factor of 10. My response, I will gladly buy as many of that coin priced at five times the price of a comparable 2000 mintage 1 oz modern Chinese silver coin, no one took me up on the offer, despite their initial bold statement.  How did I estimate the mintage, I looked at NGC population reports and found only 10 silver piefort coins had been graded and this was slightly higher than the graded population for my 1992 platinum invention and discovery coins that had 7 coins/each graded at the time.  The COA for the invention and discovery coins stated a mintage of 100, so using that as reference post, I estimated the mintage of the silver piefort was 100-200 (10/7 = 1.4).  I have no certainty that this range is correct, but it is better view of future estimate of the mintage than what the masses believe of 2000, therefore I priced the coin like a 100 mintage piece rather than 2000 mintage piece.  The coin did sell shorty close to my initial offer price to a more sophisticated and deeper pocket collector or investor than myself.

Final Line:  invest prudently based on your OWN research, so you can have more money to collect what you like in the future.  If you can't do your OWN research hire someone to manage your investments or find an investment in which you can do OWN research.  Following the masses will usually end in tears, seen this play out 100s of times in stamps, sports cards, stocks, futures, options on stocks/futures and modern Chinese coins - don't let it happen to you.  Luckily for all of us, the true masses are yet not in this market, when they will be, I will not be in this market, with exception few collector pieces (TBD).

Arif         

Offline Birdman

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Re: What's on your shelf?
« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2012, 09:29:14 AM »
Bottom line="like what you collect, and collect what you like!" 100% agree about collecting, but 100% disagree about "bottom line" tag

Top Line: "like what you collect, and collect what you like!" Collecting gives one satisfaction of owning things that provide personal gratification, with little regard to investment potential.  Collecting is fun and a great hobby to pass time and build camaraderie.  Collecting cost money similar to buying a fancy car with little regard to future value of the purchase, but you get to enjoy your purchase everyday.  I used to collect baseball cards back in the 1980s, today they are worth much less than when I purchased them in the mid 80s, despite  keeping only cards in top grade with low populations.  I will continue to collect them because I enjoyed buying wax packs, sorting and grading cards as a teenager and even if they are only worth the paper they are printed on in the future, my living standard will not be impacted in any way.  This is collecting or owning someting you like with little regard to the future value.  I used to do it when I was young, I still do it as tiny faction of my income.  How much income you devote to collecting is a personal decision and should not be questioned by anyone. 

Bottom line: "invest in what is undervalued, sell what is overvalued"  Investing is finding opportunities in which the market opinion of the masses is incorrect, but at some point will be corrected or at least improved upon.  Books, COAs, blogs, forum, etc provide a guide to what the masses believe.  The more popular a book or forum is, the more likely it is an excellent representation of the market view.  All books,  COAs, blogs, forum, etc are going to be proven wrong as the market matures and as more coins get graded, however, in the meantime there are abundant opportunities to "front run" inaccurate mintage estimate based on your OWN research of the market, while making outstanding returns in the process.  For example, in the summer of 2011 I put up a 1979 year of child silver piefort on ebay for $45,000 Best Offer and an estimated mintage of 100-200 vs published mintage of 2000 (Mr. Gee book and Red Book).  I got several emails from people wanting to buy the coin at $10,000-$15,000 with the statement that I am misrepresenting the mintage of the coin by a factor of 10. My response, I will gladly buy as many of that coin priced at five times the price of a comparable 2000 mintage 1 oz modern Chinese silver coin, no one took me up on the offer, despite their initial bold statement.  How did I estimate the mintage, I looked at NGC population reports and found only 10 silver piefort coins had been graded and this was slightly higher than the graded population for my 1992 platinum invention and discovery coins that had 7 coins/each graded at the time.  The COA for the invention and discovery coins stated a mintage of 100, so using that as reference post, I estimated the mintage of the silver piefort was 100-200 (10/7 = 1.4).  I have no certainty that this range is correct, but it is better view of future estimate of the mintage than what the masses believe of 2000, therefore I priced the coin like a 100 mintage piece rather than 2000 mintage piece.  The coin did sell shorty close to my initial offer price to a more sophisticated and deeper pocket collector or investor than myself.

Final Line:  invest prudently based on your OWN research, so you can have more money to collect what you like in the future.  If you can't do your OWN research hire someone to manage your investments or find an investment in which you can do OWN research.  Following the masses will usually end in tears, seen this play out 100s of times in stamps, sports cards, stocks, futures, options on stocks/futures and modern Chinese coins - don't let it happen to you.  Luckily for all of us, the true masses are yet not in this market, when they will be, I will not be in this market, with exception few collector pieces (TBD).

Arif         

Great post. 

I, too, collected baseball cards as a younster, mainly about 1980-82.  I bought them in the wax packs and tried to get every player in the series.  I spent countless hours sorting the cards and looking at the statistics.  The first few sets I put together were not in the best condition, owing to all of this handling of the cards.  I soon learned from a friend that the cards were actually valuable in good condition.  You could buy a pack for about 25 cents and get a stack of cards with the gum.  If you got an uncommon rookie card, it could be worth many times what you just paid for the package if you kept it in good condition.  That was an investing eye-opener for a youngster.

Such a high immediate yield on an investment attracts attention.  More people started getting interested in the cards.  Some investors bought many complete sets from dealers, never looked at the cards, and put the boxes in storage and watched their returns compound over a few years.  That brought more people into the hobby, and then card companies started printing huge numbers of cards.  This oversupply of cards in the mid-1980's destroyed any investment prospects for those later cards.  The prices of the cards soared to such heights and then plummeted.  Fortunately, the vast majority of my cards were purchased in the gum package for pennies per card.

This sort of pattern has been repeated for a variety of collectables.  Where Chinese coins are in this cycle will be clear only many years in the future looking back.  I get some comfort in knowing that what I am collecting has the underlying value of gold instead of cardboard, so there is an inherent inflationary hedge.  But it is wise words to always think about what you are doing and why, and not just follow the crowds.

Independent research is quite important.  NGC census data is a great source of information, although those new to such data bases should keep in mind that the NGC data are sometimes incomplete or reported in a way that is difficult to interpret.  I'm sure someone else could chime in with a great cautionary example (date/denomination/variety??).  In such cases, a particular coin or variety may appear extremely rare but is actually more common.  And, vice versa, a shrewd investor might have had a hoard of a particular scarce date/variety and he sent them all in for grading at the same time.  Looking only at the census data, it might appear that that coin is common, but it is not.  Accordingly, it is always good to cross check the results of such NGC data research with auction results and other data to get a sense of how frequent a coin is available for sale.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: What's on your shelf?
« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2012, 11:36:44 AM »
Good posts!  Arif keep giving us newbies information on this market..............

Offline silver222

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Re: What's on your shelf?
« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2012, 04:39:25 PM »
...... Following the masses will usually end in tears, seen this play out 100s of times in stamps, sports cards, stocks, futures, options on stocks/futures and modern Chinese coins - don't let it happen to you.  Luckily for all of us, the true masses are yet not in this market, when they will be, I will not be in this market, with exception few collector pieces (TBD).

Arif         

No kidding!  My wife used to collect (of all things) Hallmark ornaments!, and could sell "extras" from her collection at 10x the cost pre-ebay.  Hallmarked ramped the new supply to match demand, and the event of ebay brought out tons of "old" supply (everyone had an old Hallmark ornament stuffed in the closet).  Now most sell at 1/2 the cost or less!

We need more discussions like this on the forum, because MCC is the latest craze.  What part of the cycle are we in, and what research does one use to gauge this?

silver222

Offline Imperial_Dragon

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Re: What's on your shelf?
« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2012, 01:48:50 AM »
Off the shelf more than on it!

Offline poconopenn

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Re: What's on your shelf?
« Reply #21 on: November 10, 2012, 06:15:28 PM »
First book: Huang Ruiyong's 2009 book. fwang has done an excellet job in translating some of the chapters.

Second book: Zhao Yanshen's new book, published last month.

Third book: Sun Ke-qin's new book, published last month.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2012, 06:25:16 PM by poconopenn »

Offline poconopenn

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Re: What's on your shelf?
« Reply #22 on: November 10, 2012, 06:24:06 PM »
ANA grading stardard for US coins. This is an excellent book for grading coins if you are a collector of imperial and republic coins.

Coin Chenistry is an excellet book to learn the chemistry of coin preservation.

Offline 从心出发

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Re: What's on your shelf?
« Reply #23 on: November 10, 2012, 06:58:02 PM »
First book: Huang Ruiyong's 2009 book. fwang has done an excellet job in translating some of the chapters.

Second book: Zhao Yanshen's new book, published last month.

Third book: Sun Ke-qin's new book, published last month.

Poconopenn,

Can you let me know where to buy the 2nd and 3rd book in your list?

Offline poconopenn

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Re: What's on your shelf?
« Reply #24 on: November 11, 2012, 12:16:55 AM »
Poconopenn,

Can you let me know where to buy the 2nd and 3rd book in your list?

I have emailed you the information.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: What's on your shelf?
« Reply #25 on: November 11, 2012, 12:27:38 AM »
Books for ancient coins.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: What's on your shelf?
« Reply #26 on: November 11, 2012, 12:42:16 AM »
Books for Imperial and Republic coins.


Offline poconopenn

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Re: What's on your shelf?
« Reply #27 on: November 11, 2012, 12:57:24 AM »
Large copper medals.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: What's on your shelf?
« Reply #28 on: November 11, 2012, 08:27:55 AM »
Many books today are posted online.  Is it possible to access these Chinese coin books online?...........

Offline poconopenn

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Re: What's on your shelf?
« Reply #29 on: November 11, 2012, 12:52:34 PM »
First book: Huang Ruiyong's 2009 book. fwang has done an excellet job in translating some of the chapters.

Second book: Zhao Yanshen's new book, published last month.

Third book: Sun Ke-qin's new book, published last month.

For those members who have asked about the place to purchase 2nd and 3rd books. Here are the web links inside China.

http://www.amazon.cn/中国现代贵金属币市场分析-赵燕生/dp/B009XPXBJ0

http://www.amazon.cn/中国现代流通硬币标准图录-孙克勤/dp/B009J8UN0G

The price listed at amazon.cn is actually cheaper than mine.



« Last Edit: November 11, 2012, 01:09:16 PM by poconopenn »