Author Topic: Guessing the NEXT Trend  (Read 2642 times)

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Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #15 on: July 29, 2017, 01:38:41 AM »
Here is an article pandamonium is going to like to read.  Maybe gold is going to save us all, too bad I sold almost all my bullion.

http://www.numismaticnews.net/article/will-go-broke

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #16 on: July 29, 2017, 09:04:59 AM »
Anything that goes against the opinions of this forum is considered "conspiracy theory".      However the facts remain the same.    No currency can survive Weapons of Financial Destruction which are derivatives that are holding up the USD.   Don't forget debt monster.    China owns the US manufacturing and the gold so they are wealthy while the US is broke, sad to say.     

Bullionstar  "PBOC gold purchases...."

Goldseek  "Chinese leverage to kill petro dollar"  by Jim Willie         Most all on line articles are on board so in time it will go mainstream...

Min Quan listed this second 1979 Archaeological 12 piece silver set OMP and it took 2 days to sell    Ebay 162607230799   $1,099 or do a Advanced Search.     Why would anyone want to buy these worthless medals?     Will a hoard come out?     I hope so as collectors i know did not jump fast enough.     The rules of Chinese coins/medals are changing.      The next publication that comes out will again change the market as did Peter's Panda books and Mr Sun's book.   
Bottom line, this is one exciting market that is still semi immature.     Valuations can change such as the 1993 Ghengis Kahn silver medal Jay first sold here for $150 PF 69 i mentioned earlier.   Today the Chinese have fallen in love w/ this silver medal so Cocoa beauty or Naomi has one for $711 on ebay OMP.     Makes sense as the Asians/Chinese view Ghengis as a hero while the West views him as a butcher/rapist.    Other examples too but for another day.....

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #17 on: July 30, 2017, 06:51:51 PM »
Gold should be well above $5000 with all that has happened in world during the last 10 years, the fact it hasn't happened tells me to move away from bullion position and focus on numismatic coins.  Others on the forum feel the exact opposite, nobody knows who is going to be right, we all just placing bets and each bet has two sides.  There are no conspiracy theories against those that believe gold is going much higher.

Some medals are still in hoards, while some are not. The trick is learning which ones are safe to buy because they are owned by many individual while avoiding ones that are owned by a few individuals.  It is not an easy task and that is why I don't get involved unless I know the distribution pattern of the coin well. There are no conspiracy theories against those that own medals, just be aware of the risks.

I  can tell you first hand I have been burnt by hoards of collector coins (medals, lunars, unicorns, I&D, etc) being dumped onto the market.  The most damaging was stacks bowers dumping a hoard of lunars over a very short period with no regard to maintaining the price stability.  Prices for many lunars plunged over the 2 year period and are still in a downward trend. 

Offline collectingcoins

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #18 on: July 31, 2017, 02:15:40 PM »
"The trick is learning which ones are safe to buy because they are owned by many individual while avoiding ones that are owned by a few individuals."

How does one go about learning these tricks.  Where is this information found for people like me getting involved so I don't get burned? Thank you.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #19 on: July 31, 2017, 03:30:27 PM »
It's from attending shows and seeing how the medals are distributed. 

For US coins it is by looking at household limit the US mint imposes on orders, when the limit is 1-3 you know the coins is going to be great because it will be distributed into many hands and will come back to the aftermarket slowly over decades.  While coins that have unlimited ordering limits are much more risky.

Offline collectingcoins

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #20 on: July 31, 2017, 03:35:04 PM »
Thank you Arif.  I hope the show is enjoyable, and you are seeing great traffic.  Great success to you and team.

Offline GDG's

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2017, 01:46:56 PM »
Arif quote
"Gold should be well above $5000 with all that has happened in world during the last 10 years, the fact it hasn't happened tells me to move away from bullion position and focus on numismatic coins.  Others on the forum feel the exact opposite, nobody knows who is going to be right, we all just placing bets and each bet has two sides.  There are no conspiracy theories against those that believe gold is going much higher."

I happen to concur and have finished liquidating most of my bullion for that very reason. There are several reasons I came to this conclusion not just manipulation at the COMEX. Technological advances will propel the worlds economy at an advanced rate increasing wealth greatly. There will be little reason to hold bullion. High value numismatic coins will in my opinion far surpass the price of bullion. The greater the rarity the greater gain.


Offline collectingcoins

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #22 on: August 01, 2017, 04:20:09 PM »
These are some thought provoking comments.  Are you primarily talking coins?  Or do these ultra low medals you see popping up everywhere fall into this category too (show medals included)?  Also, what if gold did go to 5000.00 in a the next couple years (speculative thought I understand), but if it did, what would be the better buy?  Would the numismatic coin still be better or is the bullion one better?  I'm assuming you get more bang for the buck buying the bullion coin versus spending a lot of money for a numismatic. 

No one ever answered my question about that 9,300.00 proof china panda coin for sale. I'm assuming that is not a good buy.  Thank you for these insightful comments. 

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #23 on: August 01, 2017, 04:23:41 PM »
If the 1995 gold proof panda were a good deal, it wouldn't have lasted more than a day or two, max. That coin is not in demand now and is well off its highs.

I believe that GDGs was talking about PRC issued coins, however, *some* respected medals might also fall I to that category. Certainly not any newly issued medals . . . nothing in the last 5-10 years that I can think of.
These are some thought provoking comments.  Are you primarily talking coins?  Or do these ultra low medals you see popping up everywhere fall into this category too (show medals included)?  Also, what if gold did go to 5000.00 in a the next couple years (speculative thought I understand), but if it did, what would be the better buy?  Would the numismatic coin still be better or is the bullion one better?  I'm assuming you get more bang for the buck buying the bullion coin versus spending a lot of money for a numismatic. 

No one ever answered my question about that 9,300.00 proof china panda coin for sale. I'm assuming that is not a good buy.  Thank you for these insightful comments. 

Offline collectingcoins

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #24 on: August 01, 2017, 05:05:42 PM »
If the 1995 gold proof panda were a good deal, it wouldn't have lasted more than a day or two, max. That coin is not in demand now and is well off its highs.

I believe that GDGs was talking about PRC issued coins, however, *some* respected medals might also fall I to that category. Certainly not any newly issued medals . . . nothing in the last 5-10 years that I can think of.

Thank you for the clarification.  Sorry for the stupid question. What does PRC mean?  I stared at it for a while, and couldn't quite figure it out.  I assume the C is for china? :>)  I feel like I need a Ph.D to understand all these details.  I'm sure that's why many like me just throw in the towel, and just stick with bullion coins.  It sounds like you're saying that Anaheim, Berlin, Denver, etc...show medals are not worth buying.  Will not those be considered rare in 30 years since some of them have a low mintage?

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #25 on: August 01, 2017, 05:24:58 PM »
PRC equals Peoples Republic of China . . . In other words, government issued coins.

"It sounds like you're saying that Anaheim, Berlin, Denver, etc...show medals are not worth buying.  Will not those be considered rare in 30 years since some of them have a low mintage?"

Correct, that is what I meant to imply, however, if you want to get a few just in case, I would be happy to offer you mine. I have some coin show pandas in OMP from 2011 and 2012.

30 years from now, I have no idea what the market will think of most recently issued medals. If I knew, I would likely be stoclpiling or selling heavily now, and I probably wouldn't tell you :)

Those who do the best in this China game seem to find the undervalued segments of the market and buy those items. When the cycle changes and those items are fairly valued or valued higher than what seems appropriate, they become sellers. That is what you must learn to do, unless you just want to be a collector. Then, simply by what you like and be happy.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #26 on: August 01, 2017, 05:35:30 PM »
I bought bullion gold at about $300/oz sometime in 1997/98. That wasn't an investment play. It was in case SHTF because of where I was at that time. Precious metals subsequently went for a joy ride and I am still at multiples of the price I bought. It was fortuitous for me. Maybe there were many others who had fundamental information that told them of the trajectory of gold and silver and they bought accordingly and that brings me to my first point:

1: If you know your market and it tells you that spot price will be disproportionately high somewhere in future, it makes sense to buy bullion but most people I know will not leak that information to allow them enough time to accumulate bullion while others are in the dark!

2: I cannot discountenance future astronomical rises in spot price; no one can do that. I however wonder if that can happen again especially any time soon (within the next 10 years). My reason is that the globalization of information technology equalizes knowledge rapidly such that few enthusiasts will have undue advantage over others because everyone is in the know.

3: If we believe spot price is manipulated we also have to accept that the "giants" who are pushing the chess pieces around, so to speak, are probably check mating themselves nicely. They are likely to control the price within a narrow range. Please know that I have no expertise at all in world finance and manipulation!

4: When I started comparing the excellent performance of my 1990's bullion purchases with the performance of coins with numismatic premium I saw that the latter even did better compared to bullion. But not every numismatic coin or medal is a sure winner; some have not done that well compared to bullion but many maintain an edge over bullion.

5: If the issue is whether to spend all your discretionary income on consumables and luxury items, using some for bullion purchase is still better than blowing all on things that do not build value.

Conclusion
I don't buy bullion usually but I will buy bullion if the spot price tanks dramatically (probably won't).

I tend to buy coins with numismatic premium after doing fundamental research but I must hasten to say I bought a lot of crap in the past! (Sorry for the lingo). I hope my days of buying every POS that turns up are gone. (Keeping fingers crossed).

The task is to (1) buy as close to spot as possible, (2) failing that buy at the entry price and hope that no one would sell lower in future!!! (3) KeyDate1/2ozPandas has also shared some other fundamentals in the past.

Disclaimer
This is based on my short experience of collecting numismatic coins.
I can only speak for myself, and I know I am not pushing or hyping any item.
I don't plan on living off my collection; its not that much.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #27 on: August 01, 2017, 05:56:53 PM »
"but I must hasten to say I bought a lot of crap in the past! (Sorry for the lingo). I hope my days of buying every POS that turns up are gone. (Keeping fingers crossed)."

Do tell what purchases you made that you now feel were crap buys . . . :)

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #28 on: August 01, 2017, 06:59:37 PM »
PRC equals Peoples Republic of China . . . In other words, government issued coins.

"It sounds like you're saying that Anaheim, Berlin, Denver, etc...show medals are not worth buying.  Will not those be considered rare in 30 years since some of them have a low mintage?"

Correct, that is what I meant to imply, however, if you want to get a few just in case, I would be happy to offer you mine. I have some coin show pandas in OMP from 2011 and 2012.

30 years from now, I have no idea what the market will think of most recently issued medals. If I knew, I would likely be stoclpiling or selling heavily now, and I probably wouldn't tell you :)

Those who do the best in this China game seem to find the undervalued segments of the market and buy those items. When the cycle changes and those items are fairly valued or valued higher than what seems appropriate, they become sellers. That is what you must learn to do, unless you just want to be a collector. Then, simply by what you like and be happy.




I agree w/ buying undervalued segments of the market as that is what i post about.     I am pro early year medals too not recent issue.    The key to this market is books or publications.    They educate the players and we see price rises on the Chinese coins/medals in the books.      Now is the time to buy undervalued before books/publications come out.     Maybe a bit of a gamble but a lot of fun.       The future books i would like to see would be focused on 1)  Early year Medals    2)   Artists and their contributions    3)  Overseas sales samples.

Nothing wrong w/ owning bullion.     Chinese numismatics should be the priority.     Living in the US, i like junk silver dimes because the parabolic spike is coming for precious metals and junk silver is the smallest, recognizable currency.      I have posted many times silver bullion will head to $1,000 oz so each junk silver dime w/ be worth about $100 or so.      30 yrs from now the world will be speaking Chinese not English.....

Offline collectingcoins

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #29 on: August 01, 2017, 08:07:31 PM »
Thanks again for the feedback.  Good information to ponder.  I've been looking at the early year silver Pandas and they are expensive, but one has to wonder if they will be many more multiples higher in 20, 30, or 50 years. If the China market heats up even a fraction of what the U.S., market does for numismatics, I'd have to imagine they would be valuable pieces (from what little research I've done on eagle silver coins). The question is, will it? The continued debate I have with myself is, is it better to buy one of these rare pieces with a mintage of 10,000 versus buying a china gold piece that cost about the same, and some cases are a bit less.  The debate I have with myself causes me to get pretty dizzy.  Anyone else have this challenge?  Thank you for sharing your thoughts about medals, coins, pandas, show medals.  I hope this information is helping more than just me. 

I just saw the comment about a silver dime being worth a $100.00.  We can only dream, but if that dream came true, my cup off morning coffee would cost a silver dime?