Author Topic: Guessing the NEXT Trend  (Read 2641 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Mirkkanen

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+47)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1308
  • Karma: 41
Guessing the NEXT Trend
« on: July 23, 2017, 02:31:08 PM »
For simplicity, I will stick to the gold panda master set phenomenon in these opening paragraphs  . . . .

For a while 1995 and 1998 have been considered the key dates for most gold panda denominations. They had early price rises to reflect this. 1982, 1994, 1999, and 2000 have been considered semi-key and their prices have risen accordingly.

Then, in the push(es) upwards betweens 2011-2015, most 90s dates got a lift . . . 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, and 1997 went up in price, and some post 2000 dates did as well: 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2010.

Most recently, some previously unloved dates got their push higher  . . . 1996, 1997, 2005 and 2009 are four dates that come to mind.

So, what is left to run?
1982, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007,
2008, 2009, 2010


It seems to me that the dates that haven't really taken off yet are some 80s dates and the post-2010s. Both groups have such high mintages that I don't expect them to move much during the next wave. Do you?

Master sets have not resulted in an increased interest in rare varieties or date types. In fact, master set demand has really upset the variety collecting trend since lesser valued date types have been sold off in great numbers, thus possibly evening the playing field between them and their previously less common counterparts. Are rare varieties the next subset to realize price gains?

Lunars had their run. Unicorns had a run as well. Silver pandas were valued much higher when silver was striding toward $50usd. At that time, cultural coins also brought much more robust prices. So, what comes next?

Anyone placing their bets on a specific aspect of the market and care to share?

Offline pandamonium

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1994
  • Karma: 23
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2017, 09:29:36 PM »
Pricepedia May & June mentioned vintage Chinese coin demand was good.     I keep track of segments of the market and post some info on badon's site.    I do not own Mr Sun's book and know very little about Empire small silver dragons but here goes.   Keep in mind there were many minted but only a tiny pop are UNC, high grade or Mint State......
May 19   Ebay 391782158289   Empire small silver 1st yr.   1890-1908 20 C   MS 63  Kwangtung silver dragon   $116.50  Sold
Since then sales prices doubled, then almost tripled.    Asking prices today on ebay are almost triple, see APMEX or ebay search.     (However July 4th saw a usual holiday fire sale as the buyers were celebrating or too tipsy to bid)....
The 1911 50 C  MS  Yunnan silver dragons are seeing few listed on ebay and selling well.    Last one was priced at $199 for MS 61 and it sold in a few days (week?).
Many other Empire small silver dragons are priced much higher but these are the main 2 i track as they are affordable for new collectors or to those that want to dip their toes in the Empire market.     Many fakes so buy graded..
I think Empire silver dragons could have a strong upcoming demand.     

Also this 1979 Archaeological 12 piece silver set sold on ebay 391838707160  for  $1,100 recently.     See photo of similar set.    About 2 yrs ago a set sold early on ebay for $500.    A dealer in China sold a set, same time frame, for $550.    Rarely seen set and getting popular.....

MCC are still flat and some have dropped in price such as the 96 PF 69 Proof silver panda for about $223!...



Offline poconopenn

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+7)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2564
  • Karma: 220
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2017, 10:23:07 PM »
Usually, I will not post investment related comment in this forum. However, the following information may not be known by most members in this forum and may affect the MCC market significantly in the next six months to one year.

Since, January 2017, Chinese authorities have tried to install more regulations to control Electronic Exchanges for stamps, banknotes, phone cards and coins, due to many complaints by investors about the fraudulent activities in those Exchanges.  At the end of 2016, there were 30 Exchanges, since then four has closed and 13 have been in the status of reorganization (no trading), including the largest Exchange, Nanjing Exchanges.

There is good chance that many Exchanges may not be survived during the reorganization and all coins will be returned to the original sponsors. Therefore, a substantial amount of coins will be released to the market place. The price of most coins in Exchanges is lower than the current market value.
 
IMO, the softness of MCC market during last six months has something to do with the situation of Exchanges and will affect MCC market further if liquidation is required for few Exchanges in the next few months.

There is no gold pandas in those Exchanges. However, many post-2010 silver pandas and silver lunars, and some later 1990 to 2010 gold and silver lunars are listed at those Exchanges.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 804
  • Karma: 191
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2017, 01:15:51 AM »
This is great insight.  The exchange model was flawed from the beginning and anything on the exchanges will take a serious hit.  I am already seeing some newer silver pandas 2015-2017 selling at spreads well below the issue price.

Last week a dealer offered me a sealed box of 2016 silver panda, I offered $1 over melt for them, he told me that he paid $5 over melt.  I asked him if he would take silver eagles in trade for his silver pandas at the same spread over melt, oz for oz, he agreed and a customer of mine traded 434x 31.1g silver eagles for 450 30g silver panda (actually my customer traded a sealed box of eagles and got paid $1.50 over melt for the extra 66 eagles).  The fact that dealer is desperate enough to take big loss on the the silver pandas tells you how bad the retail market is newly issued silver pandas.  After reading poco comments I am lower my bid to melt to avoid getting stuck with what will surely be bullion for decades to come.

As general rule stick with what is hard to buy, seems obvious, but so many fall for the trap of buying what is easily available to them and then wonder why other coins go up, while their just sits flat or slowly trends down.

Online KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1627
  • Karma: 50
  • Gender: Male
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2017, 07:43:23 AM »
Thanks poconopenn for the critical information. Even if one is not actively buying and selling this could help protect the value of collections by allowing more strategic acquisitions.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline pandamonium

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1994
  • Karma: 23
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2017, 08:42:58 AM »
Good information.     I traded what few 2000 or newer silver pandas for early issue.    Regretted doing that but am glad it worked out now.    Hopefully we will see a price drop on early issue too.     My opinion is that bullion will still see a parabolic spike in price and buyers will return but who knows when?     I am still 100% pro Chinese silver/gold for the long term but many will sell out and walk away.     Those on the fence will give up while those few believers will buy cheap....... 

Offline GDG's

  • Trade Count: (+4)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 653
  • Karma: 45
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2017, 01:37:30 PM »

I've been collecting American coins for over 50 years. I learned as a young man from an old gentleman on the Grand Concourse in the Bronx how to grade Morgans, mercury dimes, and buffalo nickels. One thing he always stressed was mintage numbers will always bring the highest premiums in the long run. I have always followed that advice even when I began collecting MCC. When NGC began in New Jersey I had many coins submitted and all received high grades due to my learning and buying experiences from this thoughtful bright gentleman. In this internet age I relied on MCC sellers with solid reputation to purchase most coins China and U.S. and it has proved almost 100% positive. My emphasis has always been high quality and low mintage. I believe that maxim remains key.

Offline collectingcoins

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 47
  • Karma: 2
  • Gender: Female
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2017, 04:24:29 PM »
I've been following this thread closely.  I don't understand the purpose behind the exchange?  Does this mean they have many bullion coins in a depository (millions)? And then they release them into the market to sell, because the exchange is no longer functioning properly?  It sounds like there is a massive collection of coins and medals in this storage facility?  I now understand why it is important to collect the hard to find coins, with low mintage, and good quality, because at least the price integrity remains stable.  Does this apply only to coins or to coins and medals?  Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this matter.  It is very interesting to say the least, and concerning, if a person has paid a high premium for silver panda bullion coins.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 804
  • Karma: 191
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2017, 04:57:41 PM »
Rare and semi rare coins are the safest bets.  Medals have the risk of the distributor holding a large hoard at essentially zero cost basis (profits from selling 20-50% of the mintage at retail prices, the rest is owned for close to nothing).  This is why I shy away from medals (or show commemoratives) unless the design is very good, distribution is wide (no hoards), made at official China Mint (Shanghai, Shenyang, Shenzhen) and mintage is low relative to collector base.   

Offline poconopenn

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+7)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2564
  • Karma: 220
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2017, 05:05:42 PM »
I've been following this thread closely.  I don't understand the purpose behind the exchange?  Does this mean they have many bullion coins in a depository (millions)? And then they release them into the market to sell, because the exchange is no longer functioning properly?  It sounds like there is a massive collection of coins and medals in this storage facility?  I now understand why it is important to collect the hard to find coins, with low mintage, and good quality, because at least the price integrity remains stable.  Does this apply only to coins or to coins and medals?  Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this matter.  It is very interesting to say the least, and concerning, if a person has paid a high premium for silver panda bullion coins.

For new members of this forum, the following old thread will provide the information about Electronic Exchanges.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=11410.0

Offline collectingcoins

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 47
  • Karma: 2
  • Gender: Female
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #10 on: July 25, 2017, 05:17:14 PM »
Arif, someone led me to a site called coinvault.  They sure do have a lot of pretty/rare coins.  They listed a 1995 1 oz gold proof panda with an actual mintage of 555.  The cost is 9,300.00.  It's too much for me to pay. Plus, I would never buy anything like this because I'm so new at buying chinese coins. But is this the type of rarity you are referring to?  I'm curious if a coin like this is worth the money they are asking?  I see they have early year silver pandas too.  They are not inexpensive either.  I'd end up buying something like this and seeing the value drop by 75%.  I'm just asking and learning.  I'm going to read the information posted by poconopenn tonight.  I took a quick glance, it is rich with details.  Thank you!!

Offline Championhk

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 29
  • Karma: -7
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2017, 06:14:51 PM »
hello all:

I am Michael Chou from champion auctions , I recently did an podcast with Charles Morgan of coinweek on the Chinese market. champion has been in the auction business and modern chinese coins market since the early 1990's partnering with panda America's Marty Weiss ,  Fred Weinberg company' Fred weinberg and other companies in many programs in the 1990's. we have participated in many aspects of the chinese market and seen several market changes. many of the current modern china experts were probably doing something else other then chinese coins until recently, people like Marty Weiss and owners of Taisei coins are the true pioneers who make the modern panda program a reality . starting in late 1990's we worked on over 50 e-commerce marketing and technology rojects with eBay in Japan,Taiwan Korea,and china which has changed the landscape of coin trading and the sales of the chinese pandas. when we restarted the show panda program in 2014 with the Macau show panda we went directly to the top panda designer Mr yu min of Shanghai mint who has designed all of our show and friendship pandas, he was recently featured on china's cctv as cctv sent a team to the Shanghai mint for over a week to interview him. Mr yu has designed/engraved over half of all panda coins and over 100 modern China coins and won the 2017 Krause coin of the year lifetime achievement award in design, the first Asian to win this honor,the chinese embassy in Germany received the award for him in Berlin. All of our show panda programs has show market appreciation over the initial show release price. the first 2014 number one Macau panda was sold at auction and realized over usd 65,000 pirchased by mr yuan the panda king of china all of the funds were donated to the macau numismatic society. we had a sold out of the 2016 world money fair Berlin panda with mintage of 2,000 the logical sense would be to increase the mintage to 3,000 ,what did we do , we reduce the mintage to 1,000 and increase show allocation from 300 to 500 to promote show pandas in germany again. we did the same with 2016 Macau we reduce the mintage from 2015's 1500(also a sell out) to 1000. over 50 percent of the Macau panda was presold to Macau numismatic society members who can purchase their membership number , the Macau numismatic society has grown from 300 members in 2014 to over 600 members today. 2016 ANA Anaheim panda was also a great success as everyone on the line purchased a panda that if they wanted they could resale immediately to one of the marketing companies as we interntionly not presale any of the show releases so the marketing companies has to buy them from the public at a premium. Yes, we could have presold the show release pandas to these companies and make the profit for our own benefit But we choose to promote the ANA and to the dealers and public attending the show to have something interesting with the best design and limited mintage. Top designers in China such Mr Ro and Mr yu of Shanghai mint and Mr Han of shenyang mint has market pricing of USD 10,000 to 15,000 per project in additional to the fees pay to the mint due to the market demand for their products. it is much more cost effective to use a lesser known or younger designer on a project, but the difference is often very clear. the top designer not only.design but also work in clay first then make the plaster instead of Kya working on the design software and go directly to the Die production process.  also due to the changes this year at the mint we decided not to do the ANA panda due to commitment to another project and the new policies of the China banknote printing and minting , the parent company of the Shanghai mint and shenyang mint. it is currently no longer possible to have the official name of the mint on the show pandas like all of our show pandas which requires the approval of the party secretary most programs do not have his in the past and also Sino American friendship can not be used unless  an authorization letter from a ministry level agency and signed by the minister. Even if it is possible to get the documentation approved , it is now very difficult to work under this level of turnaround time. when I was in Shanghai last week, the ANA Denver pandas was still waiting for approval from Beijing even know the show is only two weeks away ,I am not sure if the pandas have been struck now. in the past the party secretary of the mint can approve and sign off on a project then sent to Beijing for approval now a committee of eight vice president has to agree then the general manager sents the request to Beijing and now not one but three different department review the request. Under these conditions it is now extremely difficult to commit to delivery time so we choose to not to work under these new conditions of uncertainty. since the mint has so little time to get the medals produced ,if there is any problems, there is likely no time to fix anything. When we had white spots problem with some of our show panda issues , the mint restruck the entire mintage as there was enough time to do this. I hope this clears up our strategy with the show panda programs and our decision on the ANA panda this year. regards,michael

Offline purpuratum

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+3)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 73
  • Karma: 8
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2017, 06:16:11 PM »
I think it doesn't matter what you collect.  I've been collecting stamps and LP's in my early days and antique militaria and coins nowadays for over 20 years now
and I have learned that both, quality and rarity are important to conserve value and to make your collection desirable. The better in shape it is, the more often I go back and enjoy the sight of whatever piece of my collection I hold in hand.

Offline pandamonium

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1994
  • Karma: 23
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #13 on: July 25, 2017, 07:15:49 PM »
I think some medals are important and worth collecting.      Have you noticed the price of the 1993 Ghenghis Kahn silver medal on ebay for over $700?   There was a 2nd one for about $650 listed 2 months ago.     About a 1 1/2 ago, a PF 68 sold for about $135.     Chinese/Asians admire Ghengis so it makes sense his medals will see demand.     Coins will probably always be in higher demand but do not overlook or ignore medals.     
When i started collecting we were told to collect coins, not medals.     We were told to ignore private mints and many other rules that have been proven to be false due to immature market and unknown information such as Mr Sun's book.    The other post about the new Sino-German medal by Yu Min will be struck at a private mint.     My favorite private mint is National Arts & Crafts which closed long ago.    Remember when it was stated that the Chinese will not grade but always prefer OMP?     Then it was posted here that PCGS has 7 locations in China so the Chinese have changed their minds.      A dealer in China told me that graded Empire silver are in demand in China today too.      It is apparent the rules are now in a grey area or have changed completely.    As this semi immature market grows up, the rules are changing.     We need to change our thought process to keep up w/ a maturing Chinese coin/medal market......

Offline canadian

  • Trade Count: (+1)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 128
  • Karma: 6
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #14 on: July 25, 2017, 09:43:46 PM »
 I like the Auspicious Matters series. The China mint went big with this series in 1997 releasing 11 related  coins, in 1998 they reduced the number to 4 coins, in 1999 3 coins and in 2000 they dropped the series altogether, presumably because of lack of interest. The 12 oz silver from 1997 has a mintage of only 3 or 4. This could be the rarest master set ever minted.


Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 804
  • Karma: 191
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #15 on: July 29, 2017, 01:38:41 AM »
Here is an article pandamonium is going to like to read.  Maybe gold is going to save us all, too bad I sold almost all my bullion.

http://www.numismaticnews.net/article/will-go-broke

Offline pandamonium

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1994
  • Karma: 23
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #16 on: July 29, 2017, 09:04:59 AM »
Anything that goes against the opinions of this forum is considered "conspiracy theory".      However the facts remain the same.    No currency can survive Weapons of Financial Destruction which are derivatives that are holding up the USD.   Don't forget debt monster.    China owns the US manufacturing and the gold so they are wealthy while the US is broke, sad to say.     

Bullionstar  "PBOC gold purchases...."

Goldseek  "Chinese leverage to kill petro dollar"  by Jim Willie         Most all on line articles are on board so in time it will go mainstream...

Min Quan listed this second 1979 Archaeological 12 piece silver set OMP and it took 2 days to sell    Ebay 162607230799   $1,099 or do a Advanced Search.     Why would anyone want to buy these worthless medals?     Will a hoard come out?     I hope so as collectors i know did not jump fast enough.     The rules of Chinese coins/medals are changing.      The next publication that comes out will again change the market as did Peter's Panda books and Mr Sun's book.   
Bottom line, this is one exciting market that is still semi immature.     Valuations can change such as the 1993 Ghengis Kahn silver medal Jay first sold here for $150 PF 69 i mentioned earlier.   Today the Chinese have fallen in love w/ this silver medal so Cocoa beauty or Naomi has one for $711 on ebay OMP.     Makes sense as the Asians/Chinese view Ghengis as a hero while the West views him as a butcher/rapist.    Other examples too but for another day.....

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 804
  • Karma: 191
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #17 on: July 30, 2017, 06:51:51 PM »
Gold should be well above $5000 with all that has happened in world during the last 10 years, the fact it hasn't happened tells me to move away from bullion position and focus on numismatic coins.  Others on the forum feel the exact opposite, nobody knows who is going to be right, we all just placing bets and each bet has two sides.  There are no conspiracy theories against those that believe gold is going much higher.

Some medals are still in hoards, while some are not. The trick is learning which ones are safe to buy because they are owned by many individual while avoiding ones that are owned by a few individuals.  It is not an easy task and that is why I don't get involved unless I know the distribution pattern of the coin well. There are no conspiracy theories against those that own medals, just be aware of the risks.

I  can tell you first hand I have been burnt by hoards of collector coins (medals, lunars, unicorns, I&D, etc) being dumped onto the market.  The most damaging was stacks bowers dumping a hoard of lunars over a very short period with no regard to maintaining the price stability.  Prices for many lunars plunged over the 2 year period and are still in a downward trend. 

Offline collectingcoins

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 47
  • Karma: 2
  • Gender: Female
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #18 on: July 31, 2017, 02:15:40 PM »
"The trick is learning which ones are safe to buy because they are owned by many individual while avoiding ones that are owned by a few individuals."

How does one go about learning these tricks.  Where is this information found for people like me getting involved so I don't get burned? Thank you.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 804
  • Karma: 191
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #19 on: July 31, 2017, 03:30:27 PM »
It's from attending shows and seeing how the medals are distributed. 

For US coins it is by looking at household limit the US mint imposes on orders, when the limit is 1-3 you know the coins is going to be great because it will be distributed into many hands and will come back to the aftermarket slowly over decades.  While coins that have unlimited ordering limits are much more risky.

Offline collectingcoins

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 47
  • Karma: 2
  • Gender: Female
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #20 on: July 31, 2017, 03:35:04 PM »
Thank you Arif.  I hope the show is enjoyable, and you are seeing great traffic.  Great success to you and team.

Offline GDG's

  • Trade Count: (+4)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 653
  • Karma: 45
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2017, 01:46:56 PM »
Arif quote
"Gold should be well above $5000 with all that has happened in world during the last 10 years, the fact it hasn't happened tells me to move away from bullion position and focus on numismatic coins.  Others on the forum feel the exact opposite, nobody knows who is going to be right, we all just placing bets and each bet has two sides.  There are no conspiracy theories against those that believe gold is going much higher."

I happen to concur and have finished liquidating most of my bullion for that very reason. There are several reasons I came to this conclusion not just manipulation at the COMEX. Technological advances will propel the worlds economy at an advanced rate increasing wealth greatly. There will be little reason to hold bullion. High value numismatic coins will in my opinion far surpass the price of bullion. The greater the rarity the greater gain.


Offline collectingcoins

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 47
  • Karma: 2
  • Gender: Female
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #22 on: August 01, 2017, 04:20:09 PM »
These are some thought provoking comments.  Are you primarily talking coins?  Or do these ultra low medals you see popping up everywhere fall into this category too (show medals included)?  Also, what if gold did go to 5000.00 in a the next couple years (speculative thought I understand), but if it did, what would be the better buy?  Would the numismatic coin still be better or is the bullion one better?  I'm assuming you get more bang for the buck buying the bullion coin versus spending a lot of money for a numismatic. 

No one ever answered my question about that 9,300.00 proof china panda coin for sale. I'm assuming that is not a good buy.  Thank you for these insightful comments. 

Offline Mirkkanen

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+47)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1308
  • Karma: 41
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #23 on: August 01, 2017, 04:23:41 PM »
If the 1995 gold proof panda were a good deal, it wouldn't have lasted more than a day or two, max. That coin is not in demand now and is well off its highs.

I believe that GDGs was talking about PRC issued coins, however, *some* respected medals might also fall I to that category. Certainly not any newly issued medals . . . nothing in the last 5-10 years that I can think of.
These are some thought provoking comments.  Are you primarily talking coins?  Or do these ultra low medals you see popping up everywhere fall into this category too (show medals included)?  Also, what if gold did go to 5000.00 in a the next couple years (speculative thought I understand), but if it did, what would be the better buy?  Would the numismatic coin still be better or is the bullion one better?  I'm assuming you get more bang for the buck buying the bullion coin versus spending a lot of money for a numismatic. 

No one ever answered my question about that 9,300.00 proof china panda coin for sale. I'm assuming that is not a good buy.  Thank you for these insightful comments. 

Offline collectingcoins

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 47
  • Karma: 2
  • Gender: Female
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #24 on: August 01, 2017, 05:05:42 PM »
If the 1995 gold proof panda were a good deal, it wouldn't have lasted more than a day or two, max. That coin is not in demand now and is well off its highs.

I believe that GDGs was talking about PRC issued coins, however, *some* respected medals might also fall I to that category. Certainly not any newly issued medals . . . nothing in the last 5-10 years that I can think of.

Thank you for the clarification.  Sorry for the stupid question. What does PRC mean?  I stared at it for a while, and couldn't quite figure it out.  I assume the C is for china? :>)  I feel like I need a Ph.D to understand all these details.  I'm sure that's why many like me just throw in the towel, and just stick with bullion coins.  It sounds like you're saying that Anaheim, Berlin, Denver, etc...show medals are not worth buying.  Will not those be considered rare in 30 years since some of them have a low mintage?

Offline Mirkkanen

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+47)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1308
  • Karma: 41
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #25 on: August 01, 2017, 05:24:58 PM »
PRC equals Peoples Republic of China . . . In other words, government issued coins.

"It sounds like you're saying that Anaheim, Berlin, Denver, etc...show medals are not worth buying.  Will not those be considered rare in 30 years since some of them have a low mintage?"

Correct, that is what I meant to imply, however, if you want to get a few just in case, I would be happy to offer you mine. I have some coin show pandas in OMP from 2011 and 2012.

30 years from now, I have no idea what the market will think of most recently issued medals. If I knew, I would likely be stoclpiling or selling heavily now, and I probably wouldn't tell you :)

Those who do the best in this China game seem to find the undervalued segments of the market and buy those items. When the cycle changes and those items are fairly valued or valued higher than what seems appropriate, they become sellers. That is what you must learn to do, unless you just want to be a collector. Then, simply by what you like and be happy.

Online KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1627
  • Karma: 50
  • Gender: Male
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #26 on: August 01, 2017, 05:35:30 PM »
I bought bullion gold at about $300/oz sometime in 1997/98. That wasn't an investment play. It was in case SHTF because of where I was at that time. Precious metals subsequently went for a joy ride and I am still at multiples of the price I bought. It was fortuitous for me. Maybe there were many others who had fundamental information that told them of the trajectory of gold and silver and they bought accordingly and that brings me to my first point:

1: If you know your market and it tells you that spot price will be disproportionately high somewhere in future, it makes sense to buy bullion but most people I know will not leak that information to allow them enough time to accumulate bullion while others are in the dark!

2: I cannot discountenance future astronomical rises in spot price; no one can do that. I however wonder if that can happen again especially any time soon (within the next 10 years). My reason is that the globalization of information technology equalizes knowledge rapidly such that few enthusiasts will have undue advantage over others because everyone is in the know.

3: If we believe spot price is manipulated we also have to accept that the "giants" who are pushing the chess pieces around, so to speak, are probably check mating themselves nicely. They are likely to control the price within a narrow range. Please know that I have no expertise at all in world finance and manipulation!

4: When I started comparing the excellent performance of my 1990's bullion purchases with the performance of coins with numismatic premium I saw that the latter even did better compared to bullion. But not every numismatic coin or medal is a sure winner; some have not done that well compared to bullion but many maintain an edge over bullion.

5: If the issue is whether to spend all your discretionary income on consumables and luxury items, using some for bullion purchase is still better than blowing all on things that do not build value.

Conclusion
I don't buy bullion usually but I will buy bullion if the spot price tanks dramatically (probably won't).

I tend to buy coins with numismatic premium after doing fundamental research but I must hasten to say I bought a lot of crap in the past! (Sorry for the lingo). I hope my days of buying every POS that turns up are gone. (Keeping fingers crossed).

The task is to (1) buy as close to spot as possible, (2) failing that buy at the entry price and hope that no one would sell lower in future!!! (3) KeyDate1/2ozPandas has also shared some other fundamentals in the past.

Disclaimer
This is based on my short experience of collecting numismatic coins.
I can only speak for myself, and I know I am not pushing or hyping any item.
I don't plan on living off my collection; its not that much.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline Mirkkanen

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+47)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1308
  • Karma: 41
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #27 on: August 01, 2017, 05:56:53 PM »
"but I must hasten to say I bought a lot of crap in the past! (Sorry for the lingo). I hope my days of buying every POS that turns up are gone. (Keeping fingers crossed)."

Do tell what purchases you made that you now feel were crap buys . . . :)

Offline pandamonium

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1994
  • Karma: 23
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #28 on: August 01, 2017, 06:59:37 PM »
PRC equals Peoples Republic of China . . . In other words, government issued coins.

"It sounds like you're saying that Anaheim, Berlin, Denver, etc...show medals are not worth buying.  Will not those be considered rare in 30 years since some of them have a low mintage?"

Correct, that is what I meant to imply, however, if you want to get a few just in case, I would be happy to offer you mine. I have some coin show pandas in OMP from 2011 and 2012.

30 years from now, I have no idea what the market will think of most recently issued medals. If I knew, I would likely be stoclpiling or selling heavily now, and I probably wouldn't tell you :)

Those who do the best in this China game seem to find the undervalued segments of the market and buy those items. When the cycle changes and those items are fairly valued or valued higher than what seems appropriate, they become sellers. That is what you must learn to do, unless you just want to be a collector. Then, simply by what you like and be happy.




I agree w/ buying undervalued segments of the market as that is what i post about.     I am pro early year medals too not recent issue.    The key to this market is books or publications.    They educate the players and we see price rises on the Chinese coins/medals in the books.      Now is the time to buy undervalued before books/publications come out.     Maybe a bit of a gamble but a lot of fun.       The future books i would like to see would be focused on 1)  Early year Medals    2)   Artists and their contributions    3)  Overseas sales samples.

Nothing wrong w/ owning bullion.     Chinese numismatics should be the priority.     Living in the US, i like junk silver dimes because the parabolic spike is coming for precious metals and junk silver is the smallest, recognizable currency.      I have posted many times silver bullion will head to $1,000 oz so each junk silver dime w/ be worth about $100 or so.      30 yrs from now the world will be speaking Chinese not English.....

Offline collectingcoins

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 47
  • Karma: 2
  • Gender: Female
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #29 on: August 01, 2017, 08:07:31 PM »
Thanks again for the feedback.  Good information to ponder.  I've been looking at the early year silver Pandas and they are expensive, but one has to wonder if they will be many more multiples higher in 20, 30, or 50 years. If the China market heats up even a fraction of what the U.S., market does for numismatics, I'd have to imagine they would be valuable pieces (from what little research I've done on eagle silver coins). The question is, will it? The continued debate I have with myself is, is it better to buy one of these rare pieces with a mintage of 10,000 versus buying a china gold piece that cost about the same, and some cases are a bit less.  The debate I have with myself causes me to get pretty dizzy.  Anyone else have this challenge?  Thank you for sharing your thoughts about medals, coins, pandas, show medals.  I hope this information is helping more than just me. 

I just saw the comment about a silver dime being worth a $100.00.  We can only dream, but if that dream came true, my cup off morning coffee would cost a silver dime?

Online KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1627
  • Karma: 50
  • Gender: Male
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #30 on: August 01, 2017, 08:12:06 PM »
"but I must hasten to say I bought a lot of crap in the past! (Sorry for the lingo). I hope my days of buying every POS that turns up are gone. (Keeping fingers crossed)."

Do tell what purchases you made that you now feel were crap buys . . . :)


 N2  N8  N9  N10   N11

 :thumbup1:
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Online KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1627
  • Karma: 50
  • Gender: Male
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #31 on: August 01, 2017, 08:33:47 PM »
Thanks again for the feedback.  Good information to ponder.  I've been looking at the early year silver Pandas and they are expensive, but one has to wonder if they will be many more multiples higher in 20 years.  The debate I have with myself is, is it better to buy one of these rare pieces with a mintage of 10,000 versus buying a china gold piece that cost about the same, and some cases are a bit less.  The debate I have with myself causes me to get pretty dizzy.  Anyone else have this challenge?  Thank for sharing your thoughts about medals, coins, pandas, show medals.  I hope this information is helping more than just me. 

I just saw the comment about a silver dime being worth a $100.00.  We can only dream, but if that dream came true, my cup off morning coffee would cost a silver dime?

What's your experience with collecting coins? You don't have to answer but I hope I don't sound condescending to someone who may already know more than myself about these issues!  In my short experience the answers to the questions are many and varied and often come only with time and experience. It is usually advised that new collectors play with the inexpensive ones until they can make the right decisions. When that is I don't know but a lot of this can be speculative and one can get burnt real bad.

If you buy a silver 1oz 1983-1985 panda OMP and it turns out to be a seventy your capital outlay just went into multiples if it doesn't spot the next day. But what are the chances?!

Gold coins seem to be more stable surface wise but the newer releases are essentially bullion.

If you are talking about the pre-2010 gold panda coins the answer is still conditional and depends on experience or sheer Goodluck. That said the pre-2010s are the ones more likely to drift up in value over time but your entry point price is critical.

The particular coins that will pop are top secret until after they pop!

But like I said everything is possible.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline collectingcoins

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 47
  • Karma: 2
  • Gender: Female
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #32 on: August 01, 2017, 08:54:06 PM »
Thanks for the questions.  And yes, I'm fairly new collecting coins, but especially China Pandas.  Although, my time to hold is not months, but many years, maybe as long as I live, which could be a long time (or short), depending on if luck is on my side.  I'm not looking for a quick turn around to sell.  If I bought an expensive silver panda, I'd be holding for many years.  If it cost 1,200 today, in 30 years, as the China market matures even more, and more people start collecting silver pandas, I wonder what the return would be on that 1,200 coin with a mintage of 10,000?  And how many grade 69?  What would those be worth.  Lots of questions, but unfortunately no one knows the future.  I do know a little more about the U.S. coins, and there are some silver eagles that fetched a big price tag (30,000, 1999 MS 70 with a big mintage number).  What would be the equivalent for these rare precious bears if enough people are chasing them?

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 804
  • Karma: 191
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #33 on: August 02, 2017, 02:38:34 AM »
No matter how experienced you are, you will make mistakes, the last 4 months I have been selling all my mistakes from the last 10 years and I don't care if I lose 10% or 90%, I just want out of the stuff that isn't core to my future view of collectibles.  I sold bullion, paper money, gold nuggets, silver, palladium, platinum, stamps, sports cards, watches, oil stocks, etc. 

Offline pandamonium

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1994
  • Karma: 23
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #34 on: August 02, 2017, 12:41:26 PM »
Thanks for the questions.  And yes, I'm fairly new collecting coins, but especially China Pandas.  Although, my time to hold is not months, but many years, maybe as long as I live, which could be a long time (or short), depending on if luck is on my side.  I'm not looking for a quick turn around to sell.  If I bought an expensive silver panda, I'd be holding for many years.  If it cost 1,200 today, in 30 years, as the China market matures even more, and more people start collecting silver pandas, I wonder what the return would be on that 1,200 coin with a mintage of 10,000?  And how many grade 69?  What would those be worth.  Lots of questions, but unfortunately no one knows the future.  I do know a little more about the U.S. coins, and there are some silver eagles that fetched a big price tag (30,000, 1999 MS 70 with a big mintage number).  What would be the equivalent for these rare precious bears if enough people are chasing them?




Collecting coins:   It is good to see you want to learn.    However, many on this forum have been asked the same questions from newbies.    May i suggest what other new collectors have done?     They went back and read most all topics on this forum that go back a few years.    Lots of great information posted in the past.     This will help to answer your questions and probably create new questions.      Very helpful to read past topics.      Personally i think the Chinese coin/medal collecting craze will become a monster and it could happen soon.    Most here say comments like the upcoming explosion in Chinese collecting.    After all China owns the US manufacturing and gold so they are now a very rich country while the US has stepped down many notches in wealth.      Chinese out bid the world for rarity and it is a matter of time for them to all discover their National pride, artwork coins/medals.       I suggest you figure out what you want to buy and buy it soon.......

Offline collectingcoins

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 47
  • Karma: 2
  • Gender: Female
Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #35 on: August 02, 2017, 02:01:35 PM »
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.