Author Topic: Guessing the NEXT Trend  (Read 2038 times)

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Offline Mirkkanen

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Guessing the NEXT Trend
« on: July 23, 2017, 02:31:08 PM »
For simplicity, I will stick to the gold panda master set phenomenon in these opening paragraphs  . . . .

For a while 1995 and 1998 have been considered the key dates for most gold panda denominations. They had early price rises to reflect this. 1982, 1994, 1999, and 2000 have been considered semi-key and their prices have risen accordingly.

Then, in the push(es) upwards betweens 2011-2015, most 90s dates got a lift . . . 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, and 1997 went up in price, and some post 2000 dates did as well: 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2010.

Most recently, some previously unloved dates got their push higher  . . . 1996, 1997, 2005 and 2009 are four dates that come to mind.

So, what is left to run?
1982, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007,
2008, 2009, 2010


It seems to me that the dates that haven't really taken off yet are some 80s dates and the post-2010s. Both groups have such high mintages that I don't expect them to move much during the next wave. Do you?

Master sets have not resulted in an increased interest in rare varieties or date types. In fact, master set demand has really upset the variety collecting trend since lesser valued date types have been sold off in great numbers, thus possibly evening the playing field between them and their previously less common counterparts. Are rare varieties the next subset to realize price gains?

Lunars had their run. Unicorns had a run as well. Silver pandas were valued much higher when silver was striding toward $50usd. At that time, cultural coins also brought much more robust prices. So, what comes next?

Anyone placing their bets on a specific aspect of the market and care to share?

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2017, 09:29:36 PM »
Pricepedia May & June mentioned vintage Chinese coin demand was good.     I keep track of segments of the market and post some info on badon's site.    I do not own Mr Sun's book and know very little about Empire small silver dragons but here goes.   Keep in mind there were many minted but only a tiny pop are UNC, high grade or Mint State......
May 19   Ebay 391782158289   Empire small silver 1st yr.   1890-1908 20 C   MS 63  Kwangtung silver dragon   $116.50  Sold
Since then sales prices doubled, then almost tripled.    Asking prices today on ebay are almost triple, see APMEX or ebay search.     (However July 4th saw a usual holiday fire sale as the buyers were celebrating or too tipsy to bid)....
The 1911 50 C  MS  Yunnan silver dragons are seeing few listed on ebay and selling well.    Last one was priced at $199 for MS 61 and it sold in a few days (week?).
Many other Empire small silver dragons are priced much higher but these are the main 2 i track as they are affordable for new collectors or to those that want to dip their toes in the Empire market.     Many fakes so buy graded..
I think Empire silver dragons could have a strong upcoming demand.     

Also this 1979 Archaeological 12 piece silver set sold on ebay 391838707160  for  $1,100 recently.     See photo of similar set.    About 2 yrs ago a set sold early on ebay for $500.    A dealer in China sold a set, same time frame, for $550.    Rarely seen set and getting popular.....

MCC are still flat and some have dropped in price such as the 96 PF 69 Proof silver panda for about $223!...



Offline poconopenn

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2017, 10:23:07 PM »
Usually, I will not post investment related comment in this forum. However, the following information may not be known by most members in this forum and may affect the MCC market significantly in the next six months to one year.

Since, January 2017, Chinese authorities have tried to install more regulations to control Electronic Exchanges for stamps, banknotes, phone cards and coins, due to many complaints by investors about the fraudulent activities in those Exchanges.  At the end of 2016, there were 30 Exchanges, since then four has closed and 13 have been in the status of reorganization (no trading), including the largest Exchange, Nanjing Exchanges.

There is good chance that many Exchanges may not be survived during the reorganization and all coins will be returned to the original sponsors. Therefore, a substantial amount of coins will be released to the market place. The price of most coins in Exchanges is lower than the current market value.
 
IMO, the softness of MCC market during last six months has something to do with the situation of Exchanges and will affect MCC market further if liquidation is required for few Exchanges in the next few months.

There is no gold pandas in those Exchanges. However, many post-2010 silver pandas and silver lunars, and some later 1990 to 2010 gold and silver lunars are listed at those Exchanges.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2017, 01:15:51 AM »
This is great insight.  The exchange model was flawed from the beginning and anything on the exchanges will take a serious hit.  I am already seeing some newer silver pandas 2015-2017 selling at spreads well below the issue price.

Last week a dealer offered me a sealed box of 2016 silver panda, I offered $1 over melt for them, he told me that he paid $5 over melt.  I asked him if he would take silver eagles in trade for his silver pandas at the same spread over melt, oz for oz, he agreed and a customer of mine traded 434x 31.1g silver eagles for 450 30g silver panda (actually my customer traded a sealed box of eagles and got paid $1.50 over melt for the extra 66 eagles).  The fact that dealer is desperate enough to take big loss on the the silver pandas tells you how bad the retail market is newly issued silver pandas.  After reading poco comments I am lower my bid to melt to avoid getting stuck with what will surely be bullion for decades to come.

As general rule stick with what is hard to buy, seems obvious, but so many fall for the trap of buying what is easily available to them and then wonder why other coins go up, while their just sits flat or slowly trends down.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2017, 07:43:23 AM »
Thanks poconopenn for the critical information. Even if one is not actively buying and selling this could help protect the value of collections by allowing more strategic acquisitions.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2017, 08:42:58 AM »
Good information.     I traded what few 2000 or newer silver pandas for early issue.    Regretted doing that but am glad it worked out now.    Hopefully we will see a price drop on early issue too.     My opinion is that bullion will still see a parabolic spike in price and buyers will return but who knows when?     I am still 100% pro Chinese silver/gold for the long term but many will sell out and walk away.     Those on the fence will give up while those few believers will buy cheap....... 

Offline GDG's

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2017, 01:37:30 PM »

I've been collecting American coins for over 50 years. I learned as a young man from an old gentleman on the Grand Concourse in the Bronx how to grade Morgans, mercury dimes, and buffalo nickels. One thing he always stressed was mintage numbers will always bring the highest premiums in the long run. I have always followed that advice even when I began collecting MCC. When NGC began in New Jersey I had many coins submitted and all received high grades due to my learning and buying experiences from this thoughtful bright gentleman. In this internet age I relied on MCC sellers with solid reputation to purchase most coins China and U.S. and it has proved almost 100% positive. My emphasis has always been high quality and low mintage. I believe that maxim remains key.

Offline collectingcoins

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2017, 04:24:29 PM »
I've been following this thread closely.  I don't understand the purpose behind the exchange?  Does this mean they have many bullion coins in a depository (millions)? And then they release them into the market to sell, because the exchange is no longer functioning properly?  It sounds like there is a massive collection of coins and medals in this storage facility?  I now understand why it is important to collect the hard to find coins, with low mintage, and good quality, because at least the price integrity remains stable.  Does this apply only to coins or to coins and medals?  Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this matter.  It is very interesting to say the least, and concerning, if a person has paid a high premium for silver panda bullion coins.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2017, 04:57:41 PM »
Rare and semi rare coins are the safest bets.  Medals have the risk of the distributor holding a large hoard at essentially zero cost basis (profits from selling 20-50% of the mintage at retail prices, the rest is owned for close to nothing).  This is why I shy away from medals (or show commemoratives) unless the design is very good, distribution is wide (no hoards), made at official China Mint (Shanghai, Shenyang, Shenzhen) and mintage is low relative to collector base.   

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2017, 05:05:42 PM »
I've been following this thread closely.  I don't understand the purpose behind the exchange?  Does this mean they have many bullion coins in a depository (millions)? And then they release them into the market to sell, because the exchange is no longer functioning properly?  It sounds like there is a massive collection of coins and medals in this storage facility?  I now understand why it is important to collect the hard to find coins, with low mintage, and good quality, because at least the price integrity remains stable.  Does this apply only to coins or to coins and medals?  Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this matter.  It is very interesting to say the least, and concerning, if a person has paid a high premium for silver panda bullion coins.

For new members of this forum, the following old thread will provide the information about Electronic Exchanges.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=11410.0

Offline collectingcoins

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #10 on: July 25, 2017, 05:17:14 PM »
Arif, someone led me to a site called coinvault.  They sure do have a lot of pretty/rare coins.  They listed a 1995 1 oz gold proof panda with an actual mintage of 555.  The cost is 9,300.00.  It's too much for me to pay. Plus, I would never buy anything like this because I'm so new at buying chinese coins. But is this the type of rarity you are referring to?  I'm curious if a coin like this is worth the money they are asking?  I see they have early year silver pandas too.  They are not inexpensive either.  I'd end up buying something like this and seeing the value drop by 75%.  I'm just asking and learning.  I'm going to read the information posted by poconopenn tonight.  I took a quick glance, it is rich with details.  Thank you!!

Offline Championhk

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2017, 06:14:51 PM »
hello all:

I am Michael Chou from champion auctions , I recently did an podcast with Charles Morgan of coinweek on the Chinese market. champion has been in the auction business and modern chinese coins market since the early 1990's partnering with panda America's Marty Weiss ,  Fred Weinberg company' Fred weinberg and other companies in many programs in the 1990's. we have participated in many aspects of the chinese market and seen several market changes. many of the current modern china experts were probably doing something else other then chinese coins until recently, people like Marty Weiss and owners of Taisei coins are the true pioneers who make the modern panda program a reality . starting in late 1990's we worked on over 50 e-commerce marketing and technology rojects with eBay in Japan,Taiwan Korea,and china which has changed the landscape of coin trading and the sales of the chinese pandas. when we restarted the show panda program in 2014 with the Macau show panda we went directly to the top panda designer Mr yu min of Shanghai mint who has designed all of our show and friendship pandas, he was recently featured on china's cctv as cctv sent a team to the Shanghai mint for over a week to interview him. Mr yu has designed/engraved over half of all panda coins and over 100 modern China coins and won the 2017 Krause coin of the year lifetime achievement award in design, the first Asian to win this honor,the chinese embassy in Germany received the award for him in Berlin. All of our show panda programs has show market appreciation over the initial show release price. the first 2014 number one Macau panda was sold at auction and realized over usd 65,000 pirchased by mr yuan the panda king of china all of the funds were donated to the macau numismatic society. we had a sold out of the 2016 world money fair Berlin panda with mintage of 2,000 the logical sense would be to increase the mintage to 3,000 ,what did we do , we reduce the mintage to 1,000 and increase show allocation from 300 to 500 to promote show pandas in germany again. we did the same with 2016 Macau we reduce the mintage from 2015's 1500(also a sell out) to 1000. over 50 percent of the Macau panda was presold to Macau numismatic society members who can purchase their membership number , the Macau numismatic society has grown from 300 members in 2014 to over 600 members today. 2016 ANA Anaheim panda was also a great success as everyone on the line purchased a panda that if they wanted they could resale immediately to one of the marketing companies as we interntionly not presale any of the show releases so the marketing companies has to buy them from the public at a premium. Yes, we could have presold the show release pandas to these companies and make the profit for our own benefit But we choose to promote the ANA and to the dealers and public attending the show to have something interesting with the best design and limited mintage. Top designers in China such Mr Ro and Mr yu of Shanghai mint and Mr Han of shenyang mint has market pricing of USD 10,000 to 15,000 per project in additional to the fees pay to the mint due to the market demand for their products. it is much more cost effective to use a lesser known or younger designer on a project, but the difference is often very clear. the top designer not only.design but also work in clay first then make the plaster instead of Kya working on the design software and go directly to the Die production process.  also due to the changes this year at the mint we decided not to do the ANA panda due to commitment to another project and the new policies of the China banknote printing and minting , the parent company of the Shanghai mint and shenyang mint. it is currently no longer possible to have the official name of the mint on the show pandas like all of our show pandas which requires the approval of the party secretary most programs do not have his in the past and also Sino American friendship can not be used unless  an authorization letter from a ministry level agency and signed by the minister. Even if it is possible to get the documentation approved , it is now very difficult to work under this level of turnaround time. when I was in Shanghai last week, the ANA Denver pandas was still waiting for approval from Beijing even know the show is only two weeks away ,I am not sure if the pandas have been struck now. in the past the party secretary of the mint can approve and sign off on a project then sent to Beijing for approval now a committee of eight vice president has to agree then the general manager sents the request to Beijing and now not one but three different department review the request. Under these conditions it is now extremely difficult to commit to delivery time so we choose to not to work under these new conditions of uncertainty. since the mint has so little time to get the medals produced ,if there is any problems, there is likely no time to fix anything. When we had white spots problem with some of our show panda issues , the mint restruck the entire mintage as there was enough time to do this. I hope this clears up our strategy with the show panda programs and our decision on the ANA panda this year. regards,michael

Offline purpuratum

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2017, 06:16:11 PM »
I think it doesn't matter what you collect.  I've been collecting stamps and LP's in my early days and antique militaria and coins nowadays for over 20 years now
and I have learned that both, quality and rarity are important to conserve value and to make your collection desirable. The better in shape it is, the more often I go back and enjoy the sight of whatever piece of my collection I hold in hand.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #13 on: July 25, 2017, 07:15:49 PM »
I think some medals are important and worth collecting.      Have you noticed the price of the 1993 Ghenghis Kahn silver medal on ebay for over $700?   There was a 2nd one for about $650 listed 2 months ago.     About a 1 1/2 ago, a PF 68 sold for about $135.     Chinese/Asians admire Ghengis so it makes sense his medals will see demand.     Coins will probably always be in higher demand but do not overlook or ignore medals.     
When i started collecting we were told to collect coins, not medals.     We were told to ignore private mints and many other rules that have been proven to be false due to immature market and unknown information such as Mr Sun's book.    The other post about the new Sino-German medal by Yu Min will be struck at a private mint.     My favorite private mint is National Arts & Crafts which closed long ago.    Remember when it was stated that the Chinese will not grade but always prefer OMP?     Then it was posted here that PCGS has 7 locations in China so the Chinese have changed their minds.      A dealer in China told me that graded Empire silver are in demand in China today too.      It is apparent the rules are now in a grey area or have changed completely.    As this semi immature market grows up, the rules are changing.     We need to change our thought process to keep up w/ a maturing Chinese coin/medal market......

Offline canadian

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Re: Guessing the NEXT Trend
« Reply #14 on: July 25, 2017, 09:43:46 PM »
 I like the Auspicious Matters series. The China mint went big with this series in 1997 releasing 11 related  coins, in 1998 they reduced the number to 4 coins, in 1999 3 coins and in 2000 they dropped the series altogether, presumably because of lack of interest. The 12 oz silver from 1997 has a mintage of only 3 or 4. This could be the rarest master set ever minted.