Author Topic: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges  (Read 22131 times)

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Offline Sequoia

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China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« on: May 24, 2015, 07:58:49 PM »
Hi,
I am interested in the Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges which are or have started up in China.

I note for example that the 1997 BU 10 Yuan 1oz Silver Unicorn is a Coin that is on or will be on one of the Exchanges.
This then begs the question as to whether the 1997 BU 5 Yuan 2/3oz Silver Unicorn may also be put on an Exchange -- and if not why not ?
There must be some sort of logic in selecting items to go on a Coin and/or Banknote Exchange.

Has anyone any idea what the logic or rationale is for selecting items to go on a China Coin and/or Banknote Exchange ?
Does anyone have an official list of the Coins and/or Banknotes actually on any of the Exchanges ?
Such a list may give a clue as to what may be listed on these exchanges in the future.

Many Thanks.
Best wishes.
Sequoia

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2015, 11:02:08 PM »
The Exchanges have distorted the MCC and banknote market significantly during last few months. Basically, majority members of Exchanges are investors/speculators and they try to make quick money in a very short period of time. Apparently, many investors/speculators of Chinese stock market, which has been up more than 100% since mid-2014, have moved their money into these Exchanges. Because of excessive speculation, IMO, this is not health for MCC and banknote market in the next few years, if the Exchanges can not stop the excessive speculation and trading based on inside information. Most exchange funds traded items are high mintage and recently issued highly liquidity coins, especially silver lunar and circulated Cu-Ni coins. For examples, price of proof lunar Cu-Ni (5 coins) and proof world heritage Cu-Ni (5 sets, 10 coins), which have a mintage of 20,000, were up more than 100% during last 6 weeks and 2003 BU lunar Cu-Ni coin, which has a mintage of 10 MM was up 400% since IPO four months ago. Usually, price moved up prior to IPO. Therefore, whoever has the inside information can really make a significant amount of money in a day. Just two days ago, when newspaper reported that 2014 1 oz. silver panda would be IPO soon, the price of this 1oz. silver panda was double the next day. Same is true for 1997 1oz. BU silver unicorn, the price was less than $100 prior to the news and current price is more than $250 (RMB1600 as yesterday inside China and was RMB2000 two days ago) which is about the same valuation of 1997 proof 1 oz. silver unicorn.
 
There is no logic or rationale in listing coins or banknotes at Exchanges, except the listed item has to be reasonable liquidity and enough quantity readily available in dealer’s inventory to deposit to the Exchanges. In other words, dealer can work with investor/speculator to move those slow moving items by listing at Exchanges, and make a significant amount of money in a short period of time.
 
IMO, this type of speculation can not be last too long. It may take months or years, but eventually, market force will be prevailed.   

Offline Sequoia

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2015, 06:47:54 AM »
Hi Poconopenn,
Thank you very much for that information.

Are there any websites which show the items listed on the Exchanges ?
Is there any warning of items to be listed in the future -- or do they just suddenly arrear in the newspapers ?

Best wishes.
Sequoia

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2015, 11:35:17 AM »
The Exchanges have distorted the MCC and banknote market significantly during last few months. Basically, majority members of Exchanges are investors/speculators and they try to make quick money in a very short period of time. Apparently, many investors/speculators of Chinese stock market, which has been up more than 100% since mid-2014, have moved their money into these Exchanges. Because of excessive speculation, IMO, this is not health for MCC and banknote market in the next few years, if the Exchanges can not stop the excessive speculation and trading based on inside information. Most exchange funds traded items are high mintage and recently issued highly liquidity coins, especially silver lunar and circulated Cu-Ni coins. For examples, price of proof lunar Cu-Ni (5 coins) and proof world heritage Cu-Ni (5 sets, 10 coins), which have a mintage of 20,000, were up more than 100% during last 6 weeks and 2003 BU lunar Cu-Ni coin, which has a mintage of 10 MM was up 400% since IPO four months ago. Usually, price moved up prior to IPO. Therefore, whoever has the inside information can really make a significant amount of money in a day. Just two days ago, when newspaper reported that 2014 1 oz. silver panda would be IPO soon, the price of this 1oz. silver panda was double the next day. Same is true for 1997 1oz. BU silver unicorn, the price was less than $100 prior to the news and current price is more than $250 (RMB1600 as yesterday inside China and was RMB2000 two days ago) which is about the same valuation of 1997 proof 1 oz. silver unicorn.
 
There is no logic or rationale in listing coins or banknotes at Exchanges, except the listed item has to be reasonable liquidity and enough quantity readily available in dealer’s inventory to deposit to the Exchanges. In other words, dealer can work with investor/speculator to move those slow moving items by listing at Exchanges, and make a significant amount of money in a short period of time.
 
IMO, this type of speculation can not be last too long. It may take months or years, but eventually, market force will be prevailed.   

How does all you have written affect coin sales and prices outside China, for example Europe, Australia and America? I am trying to understand how the coin exchange works too. Using the specific example you have given: 2014 1oz Silver Panda coin; if the price is climbing high at the Chinese exchange will it affect the price on eBay or make eBay sellers add more to their price or hoard the coins? Thanks for further information.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2015, 05:12:34 PM »
Nanjing Exchange is the largest and oldest exchange. The capital requirement for listing an exchange fund at Nanjing is RMB 2,000,000 (US$325,000). For example, in order to list 2014 1 oz. silver panda, assuming the market value for this coin is RMB140 at the time of application for listing, the fund has to accumulate about 15,000 coins to deposit to the Exchange.   Since the mintage of this coin is very large, the expectation of large price fluctuation shall not be great. Nevertheless, the outcome in the market place is quite difference. The price moved up to RNB290 next day as soon as the Exchange announce the plan to list this fund on 5/18. The price on 5/20 had a range of RMB 230-260 and has dropped back to RMB 160 recently, but it is still about 15% higher than prior to the announcement.  At the same time, 2013 and 2015 silver panda also moved up about 10% to anticipate the potential of listing these two coins by the speculators.

2014 1 oz. silver panda will be listed at NanFun Exchange which has 22 stamp funds listed, and no coin fund yet.   

Here is the website for all listed exchange funds at Nanjing Exchange. Nanjing has 127 funds being traded currently.

http://www.njwjsqbyp.com/list.asp?id=2

The followings are the MCC currently listed at Nanjing Exchange.

2012 fan-shaped dragon 1 oz. 10 yuan silver coin
2013 fan-shaped snake 1 oz. 10 yuan silver coin
2012 fan-shaped dragon 1 oz. 10 yuan silver coin
2012 fan-shaped dragon 1/3 oz. 150 yuan gold coin
2001 colored snake 1oz. 10 yuan silver coin
2009 colored ox 1oz. 10 yuan silver coin
2009 nature round ox 1 oz. 10 yuan silver coin
2003 colored goat 1 oz. 10 yuan silver coin
2003 fan-shaped goat 1 oz. 10 yuan silver coin
2013 fan-shaped snake 150 yuan 1/3 oz. gold coin
1981 great wall 1 yuan circulated BU Cu-Ni coin
1997 auspicious matters 10 yuan 2 oz. piedfort silver coin
2009 successful inauguration of ChiNEX 10 yuan 1 oz. silver coin
2010 20th Anniversary of China’s capital market 10 yuan 1 oz. silver coin
2007 year of pig 1 yuan CU-Ni BU circulated coin.
2010 year of tiger 1 Yuan Cu-Ni BU circulated coin
1999 colored panda 10 yuan, 1 oz. silver coin
2009 nature round ox 50 yuan 1/10 oz. gold coin
2004 year of monkey 1 yuan Cu-Ni BU circulated coin
2010 colored tiger 10 yuan, 1 oz. silver coin
2006 year of dog 1 yuan Cu-Ni proof circulated coin
2009 year of ox 1 yuan Cu-Ni BU circulated coin
2011 Tsinghua University centenary ¼ oz. 100 yuan gold coin
2011 Tsinghua University centenary 1 oz. 10 yuan silver coin
2010 Shanghai Expo. 1 yuan Cu-Ni BU circulated coin
2004 Pilgrimage to the west (2nd series) ¼ oz. 200 yuan gold coin
2005 Pilgrimage to the west (3rd series) ¼ oz. 200 yuan gold coin



barsenault

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2015, 11:44:58 AM »
Thanks for the info Poconopenn.  Good stuff.  Now I understand why some of my friends were reaching out to me about what the price of 2014 Pandas was at for at various dealers in the U.S.  Bubblemania feels good on the upside, but, the ride down on the other side is filled with a vast array of head popping, stomach squeezing, and blood curdling sickness - I've been there, done that - no thanks. Thanks again. Good day all.

Offline pjleung

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2015, 02:02:22 PM »
There were not much changed on E-bay as far as price for 2014 silver Panda since the mintage is so huge, but for some proof coins with small mintage, the real coins prices are catching up with prices on electronic trading board.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2015, 10:50:36 PM »
There were not much changed on E-bay as far as price for 2014 silver Panda since the mintage is so huge, but for some proof coins with small mintage, the real coins prices are catching up with prices on electronic trading board.

Yes, proof Cu-Ni 1 Yuan coins have a mintage of 20,000 and the exchange fund of those coins needs at least 6,000 coins to deposit at Exchanges. In other words, 30% of mintage will be no longer circulated in the market place. Therefore, the effects of Exchanges on the price of relatively low mintage (10,000-60,000) coin are expected to be quite significant, either in China or worldwide.

Offline poconopenn

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Offline wg

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2015, 04:45:51 AM »
...have a mintage of 20,000 and the exchange fund of those coins needs at least 6,000 coins to deposit at Exchanges....

is it a rule of those exchange funds that at least 30% of the mintage have to be submitted?
I am asking because I have not heard about such a rule before...

Offline pandamonium

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2015, 08:10:19 AM »
This means new issue and some unpopular MCC will be available for the Coin Exchanges?   Not the rarity or varieties that are targeted by forum members.....should raise prices on all MCC....

Offline fwang2450

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2015, 02:48:52 PM »
Just want to share a real life story, so that we will all understand how these exchanges are operated.

A friend of mine wanted to have an item listed on one of the exchanges. When he applied, he was told that apart from the required number of items, he had to have 5 million Yuan ready as "protection fund", to be used if the price plunged. In addition, he was REQUIRED to open several fake accounts, the purpose of which is obvious. So when we see the price going through the roof, it is possible that the right hand of the same guy is playing the left hand.

barsenault

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #12 on: May 27, 2015, 02:55:37 PM »
Ouch.  No thank you.   Thanks for shedding some light into the reality of the exchanges Frank!  Wow.  Bubblemania is alive and well, and I'd hate to be on the other side of that trade when things go terribly wrong...and it is a when, not if, unfortunately. 

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #13 on: May 27, 2015, 04:26:40 PM »
Just want to share a real life story, so that we will all understand how these exchanges are operated.

A friend of mine wanted to have an item listed on one of the exchanges. When he applied, he was told that apart from the required number of items, he had to have 5 million Yuan ready as "protection fund", to be used if the price plunged. In addition, he was REQUIRED to open several fake accounts, the purpose of which is obvious. So when we see the price going through the roof, it is possible that the right hand of the same guy is playing the left hand.

Yes, I heard the same story. This is similar to those fake coin sellers at eBay. They have several accounts at eBay to bid their own items and leave positive feedback later to make the transaction looks real and coin to be genuine.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #14 on: May 27, 2015, 04:35:20 PM »
is it a rule of those exchange funds that at least 30% of the mintage have to be submitted?
I am asking because I have not heard about such a rule before...

Here is my understanding of the process of listing an Exchange Fund and the whole process may take few months.

Applicant submits a proposal (market analysis)

Approval by Exchange and announce to public for investor to subscribe and become a member of the said fund and the price per said item

Approved member has to deposit refundable fund for total number of said item subscribed.

When the subscription reach the pre-set number, Exchange will request the member to submit the said item for authenticity test. The said item passes the test will deposit to the Exchange.

When the total number of said item reach the pre-set number of the fund, Exchange will announce the initial date for trading.

The pre-set number of subscription is based on the price of the item at the time of application. For Nanjing Exchange, the minimum capital for the exchange fund is RMB 2,000,000. If the value of the item determined by Exchange to be RMB 200, the pre-set number will be 10,000. Usually, the number of subscription will be higher than the pre-set number.
 
All lunar 1 Yuan Cu-Ni proof circulated coins had valuation about RMB 250-550 in mid-2014, except 2003 goat which had a valuation of RMB 1,700. The 2006 (dog) proof coin was listed at Nanjing Exchange on 10/3/2014. The total subscription for this coin was 7650 out of 20,000 minted. The current valuation for this coin is RMB 2,500.
 
To answer your question, the pre-set number for Nanjing Exchange is 2,000,000/price of the item at the time of application. For item with a mintage of 100,000 and the valuation of the item at RMB 300, the pre-set number will be about 7,000 which is about 7% of the mintage. For most lunar silver coins, the valuation will be about RMB 1,000, therefore, the pre-set number to list an exchange fund will be about 2,000 which is 2-4% of the mintage.


Offline wittu

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #15 on: May 27, 2015, 05:32:32 PM »
Hello,

Thank you very much for your help!   N48

One more question :

Could the capital for a fund be higher than 2000000 RMB? It's just the Minimum? No Limit on the upper side?  And then the pre-set number would be higher? Could i find/read  these numbers without beeing a registered member?

Greetings,
wittu  N48

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #16 on: May 27, 2015, 11:52:16 PM »
Hello,

Thank you very much for your help!   N48

One more question :

Could the capital for a fund be higher than 2000000 RMB? It's just the Minimum? No Limit on the upper side?  And then the pre-set number would be higher? Could i find/read  these numbers without beeing a registered member?

Greetings,
wittu  N48


Yes, Usually, the capital for a fund is much higher than RMB2,000,000.

Here is the link for the following statistic table of all exchange funds listed at Nanjing Exchange.
The % of mintage deposit at Exchange is shown in the marked column.

 http://www.njwjsqbyp.com/show.asp?id=1898

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2015, 12:21:00 AM »
Sorry, the attached table above is for 10/28/2014.
 
The following table is for 5/27/2015. Please note the change in total capital, since the fund can add more members and receive more deposit after IPO.

Offline wittu

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #18 on: May 28, 2015, 09:19:11 AM »
 N48 N48 N48
i will have to find somebody, to translate... 

What about the Quality of the coins, that are "laying there"...does anybody care? Is there a Minimum Standard?  I guess grading is not a "must be" Standard?

Many Greetings,
wittu  N48

Offline wittu

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #19 on: May 29, 2015, 12:51:17 PM »
Hi,

i have 1000 questions...SORRY  N24  just because i think, it`s a serious topic:

as i understood...before the Fund is "opened" they find members who  sign up for it... which means to me: There are all Parts of the Fund presigned or presold.

How does this fit to this answer:
fwang wrote:
"When he applied, he was told that apart from the required number of items, he had to have 5 million Yuan ready as "protection fund", to be used if the price plunged."

if i open a Fund ... is everything "presold" or not? Why 5 Million ready as "Protection Fund"  IF THE PRICE PLUNGED?

And: is it possible to higher/fill up the Fund? This would explain, why the Markert reacts like now........

Thousand greetings and  N48.

wittu  N48

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #20 on: May 29, 2015, 06:30:55 PM »
Perhaps my previous posted process for listing an exchange fund is too simplified. Actually the applicant for an exchange fund has to submit application through a registered broker of Exchange. Just like any stock IPO, the estimated valuation may not be the price at the first day of IPO. Most exchange funds have up more than 1000% during last two years. However, in a bear market, price may plunge, the price at the first day of IPO may be lower than the price approved by the Exchange. In this case, the applicant of the exchange fund definitely need several accounts and a “protection fund” to maintain the market stability. Please also note that the daily trading volume can be higher than the total numbers of the said item stored at Exchange. I believe that the story mentioned by Fwang is between the broker and the applicant of the exchange fund.

Please note that the valuation of many coins traded at Exchange is at least 50% higher than the actual price traded in the coin market. Most circulated Cu-Ni coins are in the range of 200-400%. For example, the current market price for 2006 proof dog is about RMB 2,500, but the exchange has traded this coin about RMB 10,000.   This type of speculation can not be last too long. IMO, many new investors/speculators will be hurt badly. The only people made money are those original investors/speculators who IPO the funds in 2013, 2014 and earlier 2015. IMO, they have sold most of their shares of fund to take profit already.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #21 on: May 29, 2015, 11:58:32 PM »
Just for additional information.

The price of most exchange funds were lower than the IPO price before September 2014. The price gain recently is related to the Policy change. The new exchange fund after the application approved, the Exchange will allow additional (up to 1,000) members to deposit the item to the fund before IPO.  Obviously, with the increased number of investors/speculators, the market becomes very volatile. For example, last Friday, China stock market was down more than 6% and majority of the exchange funds at Nanjing Exchange were limit down (10%) and coin index fund was down 8.9%.

Offline wittu

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #22 on: May 30, 2015, 02:29:02 AM »
Good morning,

you are unbelievable  N48

Why does the "real coin market" react this way?
I do understand, that prices can rise strong, when someone tries to get a high amount of one special coin, cause he wants to "open" a Exchange Fund.

But once a Fund exists and it´s official on the list.... like the Bu Unicorn: the price rises, just because there are many taken away physically from the market and collectors expect therefor higher prices ? Or is it possible to sell it to an existing fund?

Please write a Book. Your knowledge is too big ...

Greetings,
wittu  N48

Edit
Quality Standard? is there a kind of Quality standard besides just checking authenticity? 


             


Offline Sequoia

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #23 on: May 30, 2015, 09:16:36 AM »
Thanks Poconopenn.
I very much appreciate the information.
Best wishes.
Sequoia

Offline pandamonium

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #24 on: June 14, 2015, 12:01:07 PM »
The Coin Exhanges buy notes, MCC and cu-ni.   Do the Exchanges buy Empire Chinese coins?    (I have called it the 100 yr old coins but Empire is the correct name)..........

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #25 on: June 18, 2015, 01:59:15 PM »
Update (statistic data at 6/18/2015)
   
The price of exchange funds at Nanjing Exchange has dropped significantly since 5/27. Most coins are down from 20% to 50% with the exception of 2010 silver panda which has increased from RMB 1628 to 2403, up almost 50%. The IPO date for 2010 silver panda was 2/7/2015 with a valuation of RMB 360 and the peak price was RMB 2590.

Just for information:

The coins stored at Nanjing Exchange have to pass the authenticity test by PCGS. For circulated coins, the grade has to be 65 or better and for PM coins, the grade has to be 68 or better.

Offline ninteno

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #26 on: June 20, 2015, 05:30:58 AM »
poconopenn, thanks for all the information here, could you please post the link to the chart of the Nanjing exchange

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #27 on: June 20, 2015, 12:24:41 PM »
Here is the link to home page of Nanjing Exchange.

http://www.njwjsqbyp.com/

Link to 6/19/2015 statistic data

http://www.njwjsqbyp.com/show.asp?id=2016

Offline canadian

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #28 on: June 20, 2015, 07:23:41 PM »
   
"The price of exchange funds at Nanjing Exchange has dropped significantly since 5/27. Most coins are down from 20% to 50% with the exception of 2010 silver panda which has increased from RMB 1628 to 2403, up almost 50%. The IPO date for 2010 silver panda was 2/7/2015 with a valuation of RMB 360 and the peak price was RMB 2590."

Thanks for all the good information poconopenn. How is this impacting the price of2010 silver pandas on the street?

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #29 on: June 20, 2015, 10:00:49 PM »
Here is the table for market price vs. Exchange price for all exchange funds.
 
Column 1: product code
Column 2: product name
Column 3: Bid price at Beijing market.
Column 4: Bid price at Shanghai market
Column 5: Bid price at Internet
Column 6: Average bid price of Beijing, Shanghai and Internet
Column 7: Fair value (asking price) of market
Column 8: Average price of previous 5 days at Exchange
Column 9: Percentage of price deviation, (Column 8—Column 7)/column 7

2010 1 oz. silver panda (product code 805014 marked with a red arrow in the table) had a market bid price of RMB 421 and asking price of RMB 548 vs. Exchange price of RMB 2324.

Link to the website of this table.

http://www.njwjsqbyp.com/show.asp?id=2018

Offline canadian

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #30 on: June 20, 2015, 11:00:08 PM »
Thankyou  poconopenn

Offline ninteno

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #31 on: July 08, 2015, 04:11:12 AM »
Please, please a update how the market is doing while the stock exchange is crashing.

I have seen once a chart you posted in another theat. is it possible to give us a link ti this chart

Thanks a lot

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #32 on: July 08, 2015, 01:00:52 PM »
Here is the link to the chart of total index for Nanjing Exchange. The total index had been down more than 50% since it reached peak in later May 2015.

http://bbs.jibi.net/dispbbs.asp?boardid=250&ID=271502&replyID=271502

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #33 on: August 09, 2015, 03:15:10 PM »
Update for total index of Nanjing Exchange as 8/8/2015.

Just for information.

The attached table covers all coins listed at Nanjing Exchange. Gold coins are in red, silver coins in black and circulated coins in blue.

Offline ninteno

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #34 on: August 09, 2015, 04:30:03 PM »
thanks for sharing

Offline pandamonium

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #35 on: August 09, 2015, 04:56:48 PM »
What a list.  Mintage numbers and coins held by Nanjinag Exchange which is one of 20.   That is a huge number of MCC held.   What is the list of MCC held by the other 19 Exchanges?   Will there be any supply left?......

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #36 on: August 09, 2015, 05:50:07 PM »
Poconopenn & Everyone, What is the practical implication of this control or sequestration of a significant proportion of MCC in these Exchanges? Your chart shows for example that 33.61% of the 2010 1oz Silver Panda coin mintage is held by the Nanjing Exchange. Won't this be similar to a situation in which instead of 800,000 minted coins we effectively have access to less than 540,000 coins? Can the exchange dump back the coins into circulation all of a sudden? Can they buy up more of the 2010 coins? Thanks for additional insight.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #37 on: August 09, 2015, 09:24:27 PM »
Poconopenn & Everyone, What is the practical implication of this control or sequestration of a significant proportion of MCC in these Exchanges? Your chart shows for example that 33.61% of the 2010 1oz Silver Panda coin mintage is held by the Nanjing Exchange. Won't this be similar to a situation in which instead of 800,000 minted coins we effectively have access to less than 540,000 coins? Can the exchange dump back the coins into circulation all of a sudden? Can they buy up more of the 2010 coins? Thanks for additional insight.

As far as I can tell it is very unlikely that the exchange coin funds will be to "dumped" back into the market. They are not structured for that.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #38 on: August 09, 2015, 11:18:02 PM »
One of the advantage of being a member of the fund is to be able to deposit the coins to the bank associated to the fund. This will avoid the safe-keeping problem for dealers and investors who may hold very large quantity of coins in their store and home.  The member still has the control of the coins deposited at fund. The fund actually provide the channel for members to sell and buy large quantity of coins in a very short period of time. In other words, the fund can improve the liquidity of the coin market.

The data clearly do not suggest that the coin with a higher percentage mintage controlled by the fund can have a higher rate of price appreciation in the market place. For example, 2010 1 oz. silver panda had the highest % mintage controlled by Exchange and the IPO price was RMB360, but last week market price for this coin in Shanghai market was about RMB450, just a 25% increase in price during last five months, the lowest price appreciation of all coins listed at Nanjing Exchange.
 
There is no correlation between % mintage controlled by the Exchange and price appreciation of the said exchange fund either. This is still a very early stage of experience and time is needed to determine if the Exchange will help or hurt the coin market. Up to now, all coins listed at Nanjing Exchange show price increase at market place since their IPO, but the increase is significantly lower than the gain at Exchange.    

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #39 on: August 09, 2015, 11:49:31 PM »
Thanks for the response and additional insight.
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Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #40 on: August 10, 2015, 12:00:06 AM »
I personally believe the exchanges help the coin market, because it provides liquidity to dealers for their common coins, which allows them to own more semi-rare and rare coins.  It is similar to when the price of bullion goes up, it allows dealers to offload their bullion coins, which puts money in their pocket to buy semi-rare and rare coins, all boats rise when bullion rises, even high end numismatics.  

While the exchanges are boon for dealers, the traders that play on the exchanges are surely going to get hurt if they are paying more than 15-30% premium relative to the market price for a coin.  For the physical coin market, typical spread between the bid and ask is 10-30%, so it seems reasonable to pay 15-30% premium to own an exchange traded product that reduces bid/ask spread to less than 1%.  The good news is most of the suckers that are paying 100%-1000% premium to market are dumb money and they would never get involved in physical coin market so when they go broke, it won't impact the physical coin market.  

As for the coins coming back to the market, it can happen if the exchange price gets below the market price for an extended period of time.  How it works legally, I don't have the details, but every structured finance product has an exit clause under certain conditions.

Offline ninteno

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #41 on: August 10, 2015, 01:43:02 AM »
a lot of good informations, thanks.
if i own the etf fund am i able to withdraw coins?
if i am member and depost coins, i have stll control of my coins to withdraw them?
did i get paid the the etf price if i deposit coins and have to pay the etf price if i withdraw them again ?

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #42 on: August 10, 2015, 02:50:48 AM »

if i own the etf fund am i able to withdraw coins?
if i am member and depost coins, i have stll control of my coins to withdraw them?

This is not an ETF. An individual cannot withdraw coins. The investor does not have control over the fund assets (coins). The shares can be traded.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #43 on: August 10, 2015, 02:21:05 PM »
In US, ETF (Exchange Traded Funds) for stock fund is cash settlement and Commodity Future can be cash settlement or excise to possess the said commodity. The Chinese ETFs listed at Stamp, Phone card, Coin and Banknote Exchanges are traded very similar to most commodity futures in US, can be cash settlement or excise the right anytime to take the possession of  the said item. (Currency future and stock index are always cash settlement in US, so are the Index funds at Chinese Exchange.)
 
At this moment, the price of majority ETF at Nanjing Exchange is significantly higher than the market value on the street. Nobody will excise to buy the listed item from Exchange. The traders will take the profit using cash settlement. During the down market in June this year (about 50% dropped of Exchange Total Index), the price of one banknote fund, one phone card fund and two stamp funds actually lower than the market value, some traders did excise the right to take the possession of the item, instead of cash settlement. The Exchange did suspend the trading of those funds for 3-5 days and changed the limited down from 10% to 5% for those funds.
 
The Exchange can delist or re-stocking the fund if the total capital of the fund is dropped below the minimum capital requirement (20MM RNB). Currently, no fund at Nanjing Exchange has total capital less than 8x of the minimum requirement.

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #44 on: August 10, 2015, 06:47:43 PM »
In US, ETF (Exchange Traded Funds) for stock fund is cash settlement and Commodity Future can be cash settlement or excise to possess the said commodity. The Chinese ETFs listed at Stamp, Phone card, Coin and Banknote Exchanges are traded very similar to most commodity futures in US, can be cash settlement or excise the right anytime to take the possession of  the said item. (Currency future and stock index are always cash settlement in US, so are the Index funds at Chinese Exchange.)
 
At this moment, the price of majority ETF at Nanjing Exchange is significantly higher than the market value on the street. Nobody will excise to buy the listed item from Exchange. The traders will take the profit using cash settlement. During the down market in June this year (about 50% dropped of Exchange Total Index), the price of one banknote fund, one phone card fund and two stamp funds actually lower than the market value, some traders did excise the right to take the possession of the item, instead of cash settlement. The Exchange did suspend the trading of those funds for 3-5 days and changed the limited down from 10% to 5% for those funds.
 
The Exchange can delist or re-stocking the fund if the total capital of the fund is dropped below the minimum capital requirement (20MM RNB). Currently, no fund at Nanjing Exchange has total capital less than 8x of the minimum requirement.


Poconopenn,

Can you tell us more about the circumstances in which the banknote was withdrawn from a fund? I have been told several times that when banknotes are submitted to a fund in bundles, as required, the bundles are then broken apart and the notes examined for quality control purposes. So if a person withdraws banknotes later they will not receive bundles, which is the way that most recent banknotes are traded. It's also a pretty raw deal for the submitter if his notes are rejected by qc because he will get his notes back in a form that is hard to sell, or must be sold at a discount. There is a similar issue with coins. This is one of the disincentives to breaking apart a fund.

Thanks very much!

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

Offline ninteno

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #45 on: August 11, 2015, 03:58:19 AM »
to come back to the 2010 panda.
The RMB450 market price is a dealer buyback price
and retail price is additionally 10-30% premium?
why are people buying the fund that is x3 to x4 ?
is it only gambling or there are not much coins available on the market
for my understanding it is easier to buy the fund but the risk is hugh to get burned

Offline pandamonium

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #46 on: August 11, 2015, 08:52:16 AM »
I disagree.   Bullion is seeing a world wide shortage.   Prices must rise.   When that happens then the Exchanges will look like a top investment.   In time the Yuan will rise as China owns the gold and the West owns derivatives, debt.   These low manipulated prices cannot last forever.   I give credit to the Coin Exchanges in China for buying and holding before the price increase.   The Exchanges could fall apart but not in the short run.......

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #47 on: August 11, 2015, 11:43:12 PM »
Poconopenn,

Can you tell us more about the circumstances in which the banknote was withdrawn from a fund? I have been told several times that when banknotes are submitted to a fund in bundles, as required, the bundles are then broken apart and the notes examined for quality control purposes. So if a person withdraws banknotes later they will not receive bundles, which is the way that most recent banknotes are traded. It's also a pretty raw deal for the submitter if his notes are rejected by qc because he will get his notes back in a form that is hard to sell, or must be sold at a discount. There is a similar issue with coins. This is one of the disincentives to breaking apart a fund.

Thanks very much!

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

You just hits the most troublesome spot of those Exchange funds. Nanjing Exchange claims all PM coins are inspected by PCGS and only will take coin with grade higher than 68, while for circulated coin, the grade is higher than 65. However, based on the data at PCGS website, the average grade for post-2010 PM coin is 69 and post-2000 circulated coin is 66. Therefore, the quality of the coins stored at Exchange may actually lower than the average. For banknote, the problem is even worst. Exchange claims all banknotes are UNC and have to be higher than 60. The average UNC banknote should be 64.

During past few months, I had tried to find the inspection procedure from Exchange’s website without any success. There is no way for PCGS to inspect every coin/banknote submitted. In general, inspector has to determine the AQL (acceptable quality level) in order to determine the size of sample for each lot to be inspected. For example, for AQL 2.5 (2.5% defect) and lot size of 10,000, the first sample size is 50 and the lot will be rejected if more than 5 defect detected and accepted with 0 defect. If the number is between 0 and 5, additional 50 samples will be examined. The defect number of combined 100 samples should not be higher than 3. For lot size of 2,000, the first sample size is 32. Assuming PCGS follows this standard procedure, the number of coin and banknote being inspected is very small, most likely about 2-2.5 % of the coin/banknote held at Exchange.
 
Some banknote funds are based on single note as unit and some fund actually based on bundle (100 consecutive serial #) as unit. IMO, the bundle submitted for inspection will be counted by machine as part of inspection and perhaps only 2-3 notes will be used to determine the authenticity. After inspection, the notes will be re-bundled to return to the original condition for storage.  It is my understanding that about 30% of banknote will be rejected, due to fake or not being considered as UNC.

The Exchange, IMO, is only for investors/speculators and dealers/distributors and not for collectors. It is gamble to take delivery even when the price at Exchange is lower than the market. The banknote fund mentioned in my previous post is for 2012 note issued by Bank of China, Macau branch, in commemorating the 100th Anniversary of Bank of China. The Exchange price of this note at the time of delivery (mid-July) was about 25% lower than the market value.
 

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #48 on: August 11, 2015, 11:54:54 PM »
to come back to the 2010 panda.
The RMB450 market price is a dealer buyback price
and retail price is additionally 10-30% premium?
why are people buying the fund that is x3 to x4 ?
is it only gambling or there are not much coins available on the market
for my understanding it is easier to buy the fund but the risk is hugh to get burned


The market price mentioned is retail price from dealer at Shanghai coin market and can be found at jibi.net.

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #49 on: August 12, 2015, 01:20:07 AM »

The Exchange, IMO, is only for investors/speculators and dealers/distributors and not for collectors. It is gamble to take delivery even when the price at Exchange is lower than the market. The banknote fund mentioned in my previous post is for 2012 note issued by Bank of China, Macau branch, in commemorating the 100th Anniversary of Bank of China. The Exchange price of this note at the time of delivery (mid-July) was about 25% lower than the market value.


The exchange funds are speculative in nature which is part of their current appeal. Rather than directly buying them (which in general is not possible for foreigners) it is imo more useful to know how the funds affect the real world market for coins. I think it will also be well worth it to follow how trading on the current 20 exchanges evolves, including which coins are being looked for and the coins already in funds.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com


Offline pandamonium

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #50 on: August 19, 2015, 08:50:40 PM »
New collectors:  The list of gold/silver/cu-ni coins purchased by Nanjing Coin Exchange is on page 3......look at the list and numbers purchased......

Offline ninteno

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #51 on: August 23, 2015, 05:49:16 AM »
can we have a link to jibi.net with shanghai retail prices for 1oz silver pandas ?
i did try to find it but no chance

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #52 on: August 23, 2015, 12:06:01 PM »
can we have a link to jibi.net with shanghai retail prices for 1oz silver pandas ?
i did try to find it but no chance

Here is the link to all MCC price as 8/23/15. The current retail price for 2010 1 oz. silver panda is RMB400. The price of all silver pandas (including commemorative pandas) is given at the end of the page.

http://bbs.jibi.net/dispbbs.asp?boardid=58&Id=272615
 

Offline ninteno

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #53 on: August 23, 2015, 12:47:56 PM »
thanks a lot, with your link and a translator i found what i was searching for.
is this link always the same for future prices ?

any idea how much % we have to reduce for buybackprices for 1oz silver and the
gold panda sets 1.9oz if dealers buy them back

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #54 on: August 23, 2015, 04:18:02 PM »
thanks a lot, with your link and a translator i found what i was searching for.
is this link always the same for future prices ?

any idea how much % we have to reduce for buybackprices for 1oz silver and the
gold panda sets 1.9oz if dealers buy them back


This is the link to the home page of daily price listing. The first listing is the latest date.

http://bbs.jibi.net/index.asp?boardid=58

The dealer buying price will be 10-30% lower than the retail price.

Offline Sequoia

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #55 on: September 30, 2015, 10:52:03 AM »
Thanks everyone.
Some very interesting info above.
Best wishes.
Sequoia

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #56 on: October 20, 2015, 05:23:52 PM »
10/21/2015 will be the 2nd anniversary of the founding of Nanjing Exchange. The number of fund has increased from 7 to 167 and the total trading value has reached RMB700 Billion during the last 12 months with a total membership of 750,000.

Updated chart for total Index.

Offline Sequoia

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #57 on: October 20, 2015, 07:11:05 PM »
That's amazing

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #58 on: December 11, 2015, 10:06:17 PM »
Nanjing Exchange total index touched 60 weeks low yesterday. Currently, the valuation of 8 MCC funds out of 44 funds are below the physical market price.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #59 on: December 11, 2015, 11:04:18 PM »
Correction: Not 60 weeks, It is 20 weeks.

Offline Rainbird

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #60 on: December 29, 2015, 11:03:42 PM »
Hi,
I am interested in the Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges which are or have started up in China.

I note for example that the 1997 BU 10 Yuan 1oz Silver Unicorn is a Coin that is on or will be on one of the Exchanges.
This then begs the question as to whether the 1997 BU 5 Yuan 2/3oz Silver Unicorn may also be put on an Exchange -- and if not why not ?
There must be some sort of logic in selecting items to go on a Coin and/or Banknote Exchange.

Has anyone any idea what the logic or rationale is for selecting items to go on a China Coin and/or Banknote Exchange ?
Does anyone have an official list of the Coins and/or Banknotes actually on any of the Exchanges ?
Such a list may give a clue as to what may be listed on these exchanges in the future.

Many Thanks.
Best wishes.
Sequoia

It seems to me that the Exchange runs relatively independent to the real market. The price is generally higher, but I was told that the coins in inventory are guaranteed and in good condition.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #61 on: August 20, 2016, 09:19:52 PM »
The Exchange Funds for Coin, Stamps and Banknotes inside China has been going down at a very speedy way during last two weeks. The total index of Nanjing Exchange reached new low at 1850 last Friday. The peak was 5530 in later April of 2015.
 
The attached tables, dated 8/18/2016, are for the coins currently listed at Nanjing Exchange. The valuation of many coins in Exchange are lower than actual market value at this moment. The first Table is for circulated coins and second Table is for PM coins.

4th column: actual market price
5th column: Exchange price
6th: %  Exchange price/market price

Offline Sequoia

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #62 on: August 21, 2016, 06:56:37 AM »
Hi,
Thank you very much for the update.
Do you have a list of which coins and banknotes are on the exchanges -- IN ENGLISH ?
Best wishes.
Sequoia

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #63 on: January 12, 2017, 10:51:11 PM »
The total index of Nanjing Exchange Fund reached all time low 1624.24 yesterday and more than 30% dropped since new year, from 2466.48 on 1/3/17 to 1624.24 on 1/12/17.

Offline eric

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #64 on: January 13, 2017, 12:12:42 AM »
That is some good data, thanks. I also would love to know what kind of coins and banknotes are on the chart. Sounds like a great time to buy. Of course it could be like catching a falling knife in the short term, but it seems like the long term upside potential is huge based on how low the index has dropped.

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #65 on: July 26, 2017, 02:36:16 PM »
heady reading, but very beneficial to have an understanding of the exchanges in china.  It appears that poconopenn predicted the future of these exchanges a couple years ago.  That was a good foretelling of what would happen in the future.  I hope more light can be shed on these exchanges now that many of them are shutting down operations.  How does it impact the prices of coins moving forward?  What specific coins or medals will be impacted?  This was very good educational reading. Thank you.

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #66 on: July 27, 2017, 02:07:29 AM »
heady reading, but very beneficial to have an understanding of the exchanges in china.  It appears that poconopenn predicted the future of these exchanges a couple years ago.  That was a good foretelling of what would happen in the future.  I hope more light can be shed on these exchanges now that many of them are shutting down operations.  How does it impact the prices of coins moving forward?  What specific coins or medals will be impacted?  This was very good educational reading. Thank you.

I recently checked and was assured that the larger exchanges are all still in operation.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline wg

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #67 on: July 27, 2017, 02:16:14 AM »
( .. )
 What specific coins or medals will be impacted?  ....

 :001_rolleyes:
 :001_tongue:



 

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #68 on: July 27, 2017, 02:36:31 AM »
:001_rolleyes:
 :001_tongue:

 

I'm certain that the ad and this topic are unrelated.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline pandamonium

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #69 on: July 27, 2017, 08:53:45 AM »
I recently checked and was assured that the larger exchanges are all still in operation.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com




It makes sense to me the Coin Exchanges should hold until we see a rise in bullion price.     Now that HK Gold Exchange and Shanghai Gold Exchange are slowly starting to have a influence in gold price instead of London Gold Price Fix, the exchanges should hang on a while longer.   
IF some do liquidate then it will be interesting how the hoard of coins will impact the market.     Dealers in Asia will not respond to questions about the liquidation of coins so they are probably getting ready to buy them up......

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #70 on: July 27, 2017, 05:14:21 PM »
I recently checked and was assured that the larger exchanges are all still in operation.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

On 6/29/2017, Nanjing Exchange, the oldest and largest Exchange, announced to stop trading all funds on 7/1/2017 until further notice.


http://www.zgqbyp.com/html/2017-6/201762976481.html


Online PandaCollector

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #71 on: July 27, 2017, 07:15:20 PM »
On 6/29/2017, Nanjing Exchange, the oldest and largest Exchange, announced to stop trading all funds on 7/1/2017 until further notice.


http://www.zgqbyp.com/html/2017-6/201762976481.html



Thanks. The statement is brief, but seems to says the shutdown is for a temporary upgrade, not a liquidation. How temporary is temporary is left unsaid.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline 1668Chris

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #72 on: July 27, 2017, 08:21:38 PM »
My favorite restaurant also closed temporarily for renovations and never reopened 😱

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #73 on: July 28, 2017, 02:21:58 PM »
IMO, Nanjing Exchange is "too big to fail". If Chinese authority is decided to shutdown this Exchange, the effects on the investors in this Exchange as well as other Exchanges will create a financial crisis. There are more than 100 billions RMB being invested in those Exchanges.

I believe, at the end, those owners involving in fraudulent activities will go to jail and other owners will have to inject more capital to meet the capital requirement of each fund. Hopefully, after reorganization, the Exchanges will be functioned as original intent. Eventually, the successful reorganization of Exchanges with new regulations to protect the investors will help the MCC market.