Author Topic: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges  (Read 22089 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Sequoia

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 119
  • Karma: 2
China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« on: May 24, 2015, 07:58:49 PM »
Hi,
I am interested in the Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges which are or have started up in China.

I note for example that the 1997 BU 10 Yuan 1oz Silver Unicorn is a Coin that is on or will be on one of the Exchanges.
This then begs the question as to whether the 1997 BU 5 Yuan 2/3oz Silver Unicorn may also be put on an Exchange -- and if not why not ?
There must be some sort of logic in selecting items to go on a Coin and/or Banknote Exchange.

Has anyone any idea what the logic or rationale is for selecting items to go on a China Coin and/or Banknote Exchange ?
Does anyone have an official list of the Coins and/or Banknotes actually on any of the Exchanges ?
Such a list may give a clue as to what may be listed on these exchanges in the future.

Many Thanks.
Best wishes.
Sequoia

Offline poconopenn

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+7)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2539
  • Karma: 219
Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2015, 11:02:08 PM »
The Exchanges have distorted the MCC and banknote market significantly during last few months. Basically, majority members of Exchanges are investors/speculators and they try to make quick money in a very short period of time. Apparently, many investors/speculators of Chinese stock market, which has been up more than 100% since mid-2014, have moved their money into these Exchanges. Because of excessive speculation, IMO, this is not health for MCC and banknote market in the next few years, if the Exchanges can not stop the excessive speculation and trading based on inside information. Most exchange funds traded items are high mintage and recently issued highly liquidity coins, especially silver lunar and circulated Cu-Ni coins. For examples, price of proof lunar Cu-Ni (5 coins) and proof world heritage Cu-Ni (5 sets, 10 coins), which have a mintage of 20,000, were up more than 100% during last 6 weeks and 2003 BU lunar Cu-Ni coin, which has a mintage of 10 MM was up 400% since IPO four months ago. Usually, price moved up prior to IPO. Therefore, whoever has the inside information can really make a significant amount of money in a day. Just two days ago, when newspaper reported that 2014 1 oz. silver panda would be IPO soon, the price of this 1oz. silver panda was double the next day. Same is true for 1997 1oz. BU silver unicorn, the price was less than $100 prior to the news and current price is more than $250 (RMB1600 as yesterday inside China and was RMB2000 two days ago) which is about the same valuation of 1997 proof 1 oz. silver unicorn.
 
There is no logic or rationale in listing coins or banknotes at Exchanges, except the listed item has to be reasonable liquidity and enough quantity readily available in dealer’s inventory to deposit to the Exchanges. In other words, dealer can work with investor/speculator to move those slow moving items by listing at Exchanges, and make a significant amount of money in a short period of time.
 
IMO, this type of speculation can not be last too long. It may take months or years, but eventually, market force will be prevailed.   

Offline Sequoia

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 119
  • Karma: 2
Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2015, 06:47:54 AM »
Hi Poconopenn,
Thank you very much for that information.

Are there any websites which show the items listed on the Exchanges ?
Is there any warning of items to be listed in the future -- or do they just suddenly arrear in the newspapers ?

Best wishes.
Sequoia

Offline KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1607
  • Karma: 50
  • Gender: Male
Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2015, 11:35:17 AM »
The Exchanges have distorted the MCC and banknote market significantly during last few months. Basically, majority members of Exchanges are investors/speculators and they try to make quick money in a very short period of time. Apparently, many investors/speculators of Chinese stock market, which has been up more than 100% since mid-2014, have moved their money into these Exchanges. Because of excessive speculation, IMO, this is not health for MCC and banknote market in the next few years, if the Exchanges can not stop the excessive speculation and trading based on inside information. Most exchange funds traded items are high mintage and recently issued highly liquidity coins, especially silver lunar and circulated Cu-Ni coins. For examples, price of proof lunar Cu-Ni (5 coins) and proof world heritage Cu-Ni (5 sets, 10 coins), which have a mintage of 20,000, were up more than 100% during last 6 weeks and 2003 BU lunar Cu-Ni coin, which has a mintage of 10 MM was up 400% since IPO four months ago. Usually, price moved up prior to IPO. Therefore, whoever has the inside information can really make a significant amount of money in a day. Just two days ago, when newspaper reported that 2014 1 oz. silver panda would be IPO soon, the price of this 1oz. silver panda was double the next day. Same is true for 1997 1oz. BU silver unicorn, the price was less than $100 prior to the news and current price is more than $250 (RMB1600 as yesterday inside China and was RMB2000 two days ago) which is about the same valuation of 1997 proof 1 oz. silver unicorn.
 
There is no logic or rationale in listing coins or banknotes at Exchanges, except the listed item has to be reasonable liquidity and enough quantity readily available in dealer’s inventory to deposit to the Exchanges. In other words, dealer can work with investor/speculator to move those slow moving items by listing at Exchanges, and make a significant amount of money in a short period of time.
 
IMO, this type of speculation can not be last too long. It may take months or years, but eventually, market force will be prevailed.   

How does all you have written affect coin sales and prices outside China, for example Europe, Australia and America? I am trying to understand how the coin exchange works too. Using the specific example you have given: 2014 1oz Silver Panda coin; if the price is climbing high at the Chinese exchange will it affect the price on eBay or make eBay sellers add more to their price or hoard the coins? Thanks for further information.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline poconopenn

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+7)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2539
  • Karma: 219
Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2015, 05:12:34 PM »
Nanjing Exchange is the largest and oldest exchange. The capital requirement for listing an exchange fund at Nanjing is RMB 2,000,000 (US$325,000). For example, in order to list 2014 1 oz. silver panda, assuming the market value for this coin is RMB140 at the time of application for listing, the fund has to accumulate about 15,000 coins to deposit to the Exchange.   Since the mintage of this coin is very large, the expectation of large price fluctuation shall not be great. Nevertheless, the outcome in the market place is quite difference. The price moved up to RNB290 next day as soon as the Exchange announce the plan to list this fund on 5/18. The price on 5/20 had a range of RMB 230-260 and has dropped back to RMB 160 recently, but it is still about 15% higher than prior to the announcement.  At the same time, 2013 and 2015 silver panda also moved up about 10% to anticipate the potential of listing these two coins by the speculators.

2014 1 oz. silver panda will be listed at NanFun Exchange which has 22 stamp funds listed, and no coin fund yet.   

Here is the website for all listed exchange funds at Nanjing Exchange. Nanjing has 127 funds being traded currently.

http://www.njwjsqbyp.com/list.asp?id=2

The followings are the MCC currently listed at Nanjing Exchange.

2012 fan-shaped dragon 1 oz. 10 yuan silver coin
2013 fan-shaped snake 1 oz. 10 yuan silver coin
2012 fan-shaped dragon 1 oz. 10 yuan silver coin
2012 fan-shaped dragon 1/3 oz. 150 yuan gold coin
2001 colored snake 1oz. 10 yuan silver coin
2009 colored ox 1oz. 10 yuan silver coin
2009 nature round ox 1 oz. 10 yuan silver coin
2003 colored goat 1 oz. 10 yuan silver coin
2003 fan-shaped goat 1 oz. 10 yuan silver coin
2013 fan-shaped snake 150 yuan 1/3 oz. gold coin
1981 great wall 1 yuan circulated BU Cu-Ni coin
1997 auspicious matters 10 yuan 2 oz. piedfort silver coin
2009 successful inauguration of ChiNEX 10 yuan 1 oz. silver coin
2010 20th Anniversary of China’s capital market 10 yuan 1 oz. silver coin
2007 year of pig 1 yuan CU-Ni BU circulated coin.
2010 year of tiger 1 Yuan Cu-Ni BU circulated coin
1999 colored panda 10 yuan, 1 oz. silver coin
2009 nature round ox 50 yuan 1/10 oz. gold coin
2004 year of monkey 1 yuan Cu-Ni BU circulated coin
2010 colored tiger 10 yuan, 1 oz. silver coin
2006 year of dog 1 yuan Cu-Ni proof circulated coin
2009 year of ox 1 yuan Cu-Ni BU circulated coin
2011 Tsinghua University centenary ¼ oz. 100 yuan gold coin
2011 Tsinghua University centenary 1 oz. 10 yuan silver coin
2010 Shanghai Expo. 1 yuan Cu-Ni BU circulated coin
2004 Pilgrimage to the west (2nd series) ¼ oz. 200 yuan gold coin
2005 Pilgrimage to the west (3rd series) ¼ oz. 200 yuan gold coin



barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2015, 11:44:58 AM »
Thanks for the info Poconopenn.  Good stuff.  Now I understand why some of my friends were reaching out to me about what the price of 2014 Pandas was at for at various dealers in the U.S.  Bubblemania feels good on the upside, but, the ride down on the other side is filled with a vast array of head popping, stomach squeezing, and blood curdling sickness - I've been there, done that - no thanks. Thanks again. Good day all.

Offline pjleung

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 55
  • Karma: 1
Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2015, 02:02:22 PM »
There were not much changed on E-bay as far as price for 2014 silver Panda since the mintage is so huge, but for some proof coins with small mintage, the real coins prices are catching up with prices on electronic trading board.

Offline poconopenn

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+7)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2539
  • Karma: 219
Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2015, 10:50:36 PM »
There were not much changed on E-bay as far as price for 2014 silver Panda since the mintage is so huge, but for some proof coins with small mintage, the real coins prices are catching up with prices on electronic trading board.

Yes, proof Cu-Ni 1 Yuan coins have a mintage of 20,000 and the exchange fund of those coins needs at least 6,000 coins to deposit at Exchanges. In other words, 30% of mintage will be no longer circulated in the market place. Therefore, the effects of Exchanges on the price of relatively low mintage (10,000-60,000) coin are expected to be quite significant, either in China or worldwide.

Offline poconopenn

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+7)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2539
  • Karma: 219

Offline wg

  • Trade Count: (+1)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 730
  • Karma: 65
Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2015, 04:45:51 AM »
...have a mintage of 20,000 and the exchange fund of those coins needs at least 6,000 coins to deposit at Exchanges....

is it a rule of those exchange funds that at least 30% of the mintage have to be submitted?
I am asking because I have not heard about such a rule before...

Offline pandamonium

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1944
  • Karma: 23
Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2015, 08:10:19 AM »
This means new issue and some unpopular MCC will be available for the Coin Exchanges?   Not the rarity or varieties that are targeted by forum members.....should raise prices on all MCC....

Offline fwang2450

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+5)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 981
  • Karma: 172
Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2015, 02:48:52 PM »
Just want to share a real life story, so that we will all understand how these exchanges are operated.

A friend of mine wanted to have an item listed on one of the exchanges. When he applied, he was told that apart from the required number of items, he had to have 5 million Yuan ready as "protection fund", to be used if the price plunged. In addition, he was REQUIRED to open several fake accounts, the purpose of which is obvious. So when we see the price going through the roof, it is possible that the right hand of the same guy is playing the left hand.

barsenault

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #12 on: May 27, 2015, 02:55:37 PM »
Ouch.  No thank you.   Thanks for shedding some light into the reality of the exchanges Frank!  Wow.  Bubblemania is alive and well, and I'd hate to be on the other side of that trade when things go terribly wrong...and it is a when, not if, unfortunately. 

Offline poconopenn

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+7)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2539
  • Karma: 219
Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #13 on: May 27, 2015, 04:26:40 PM »
Just want to share a real life story, so that we will all understand how these exchanges are operated.

A friend of mine wanted to have an item listed on one of the exchanges. When he applied, he was told that apart from the required number of items, he had to have 5 million Yuan ready as "protection fund", to be used if the price plunged. In addition, he was REQUIRED to open several fake accounts, the purpose of which is obvious. So when we see the price going through the roof, it is possible that the right hand of the same guy is playing the left hand.

Yes, I heard the same story. This is similar to those fake coin sellers at eBay. They have several accounts at eBay to bid their own items and leave positive feedback later to make the transaction looks real and coin to be genuine.

Offline poconopenn

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+7)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2539
  • Karma: 219
Re: China Coin and/or Banknote Exchanges
« Reply #14 on: May 27, 2015, 04:35:20 PM »
is it a rule of those exchange funds that at least 30% of the mintage have to be submitted?
I am asking because I have not heard about such a rule before...

Here is my understanding of the process of listing an Exchange Fund and the whole process may take few months.

Applicant submits a proposal (market analysis)

Approval by Exchange and announce to public for investor to subscribe and become a member of the said fund and the price per said item

Approved member has to deposit refundable fund for total number of said item subscribed.

When the subscription reach the pre-set number, Exchange will request the member to submit the said item for authenticity test. The said item passes the test will deposit to the Exchange.

When the total number of said item reach the pre-set number of the fund, Exchange will announce the initial date for trading.

The pre-set number of subscription is based on the price of the item at the time of application. For Nanjing Exchange, the minimum capital for the exchange fund is RMB 2,000,000. If the value of the item determined by Exchange to be RMB 200, the pre-set number will be 10,000. Usually, the number of subscription will be higher than the pre-set number.
 
All lunar 1 Yuan Cu-Ni proof circulated coins had valuation about RMB 250-550 in mid-2014, except 2003 goat which had a valuation of RMB 1,700. The 2006 (dog) proof coin was listed at Nanjing Exchange on 10/3/2014. The total subscription for this coin was 7650 out of 20,000 minted. The current valuation for this coin is RMB 2,500.
 
To answer your question, the pre-set number for Nanjing Exchange is 2,000,000/price of the item at the time of application. For item with a mintage of 100,000 and the valuation of the item at RMB 300, the pre-set number will be about 7,000 which is about 7% of the mintage. For most lunar silver coins, the valuation will be about RMB 1,000, therefore, the pre-set number to list an exchange fund will be about 2,000 which is 2-4% of the mintage.