Chinese Coins Forum

Features => Modern Chinese Coins => Chinese Panda Coins => Topic started by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on May 06, 2013, 04:29:37 AM

Title: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on May 06, 2013, 04:29:37 AM
I have tracked Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Pricing since mid-2007.  I update prices semiannually on January 1 and July 1.  The prices are based on what I have realized or expect to realize near January 1 and July 1 of each year, the prices may not reflect eBay, auctions, pricepedia or other price guide prices at the time, since my prices are based on actual private sale transactions.  Finally, I always use the price of the common variety of a given year, since only a handful of investors knew about differences in rarity among the varieties back then or even now.  

In July of 2007, one could invest $100,000 in one of four investments:
1) 145 oz of gold bullion priced at 5% above melt
2) Gold Panda sets in NGC MS69 from 1984-1993 and 2001-2006, with 4.5 sets purchased for each of the years - Common Dates
3) Gold Panda sets in NGC MS69 from 1983, 1994, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000, with 10.5 sets purchased for each of the years - Semi-Key Dates
4) Gold Panda sets in NGC MS69 from 1982, 1995, 1998, with 12 sets purchased for each of the years - Key Dates

Regardless of which category of gold pandas you invested in, one substantially outperformed gold with less monthly volatility (risk).  

Arif
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: mook on May 06, 2013, 08:35:47 AM
Thank you very much, very interesting
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: pandamonium on May 06, 2013, 08:38:23 AM
I agree that rare coins will gain over bullion.  In the long run, wouldn't the key date gold pandas outperform the others?.........
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: SANDAC on May 06, 2013, 09:53:49 AM
Such an interesting chart and I have many questions and little time today...a quick few:
1.  Summer of the 2011 is the peak activity and your chart definitely shows it, but how to interpretate the decline of the key date panda?  Is because of the transition of affluent Western collectors to the newbie Chinese collectors?  Does that mean key date panda are a bargain right now?  What's the parallel to the US coin market?
2.  When did Peter Anthony's book came out?  did it created a definitive buying pressure?  Projection about his 2nd edition?
3.  The last data point is impressive, but early, this being the beginning of the May 2013.  Is that extrapolated value?
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: mazinger7000 on May 06, 2013, 10:31:12 AM
this is fascinating, thank you for sharing it--
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: dobedo on May 06, 2013, 11:21:25 AM
Thanks for sharing. Fascinating indeed. Much analysis can now be done based on this data and built from this, e.g., for non-Panda gold, silver Panda, medals. The possibilities are endless.
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: PandaCollector on May 06, 2013, 12:56:37 PM
Such an interesting chart and I have many questions and little time today...a quick few:
2.  When did Peter Anthony's book came out? 

The end of May 2010.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: Pandapaule on May 06, 2013, 01:34:16 PM
Very very interesting graphic.
Thanks

Sandac
I am sure, a good time still is for purchases now.
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: Birdman on May 06, 2013, 01:47:28 PM
Thanks, Arif.  This is interesting on multiple levels.  If only this were a database that we could all play around with, manipulating different variables to understand different relationships.

For the graph, you use the value of the date sets (whether common dates, semi-key dates, key dates).  It would be interesting to see a plot of the change in value of the "key denomination" (usually the 1/2 or the 1/4) of the each type (common dates, semi-key dates, key dates).  Thus, instead of investing $100,000 in common date sets or semi-key date sets, what if one invested $100,000 in just the key denominations of each date set.  To take one extreme example, let's say someone piled everything in 1997 G1/2s instead of full 1997 date sets.  The return would be much greater for the 1997 G1/2 (oh, regarding disclosure, I WISH I had piled a lot of money into 97 G1/2, but I did not.  I only have one).  The flip side is, I guess it is not always obvious what the key denomination will be.  If someone piled all their money in the 2002 G1/2, they would have missed out on the upward explosion of the price of the 2002 G1/10, so the date set may have been the better play for 2002.

The goal of playing around with all of these variables would be to try to inform our investment strategy going forward to get the most bang for our limited bucks.  There are several levels to this question (1) do we invest in common dates, semi-key, or key; (2) do we invest in date sets or focus on what we think is the key denomination, or (3) do we focus on what we think are the key varieties.  Each investor's decision is based on some of these variables, combined with what happens to be available on the market place when they are ready to buy.

Birdman
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: Hippanda on May 06, 2013, 04:54:40 PM
Good points.

And buyers decisions would be influenced on the differences in outlook between Investors vs Collectors.
An investor might want to buy, for example, all scarcer 1/2  oz sizes in order to try to maximize return, whereas a collector might want a complete set regardless if some sizes are relative underperformers.
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: Pandora on May 06, 2013, 05:00:58 PM
Thanks Arif, this is very illuminating.

I would like to draw a parallel...in your graph, the semi-key-dates sets won over key-date sets for investment purpose. Same way, investing an amount in 69 coins might win over investing same amount in fewer 70 coins for investment purpose.
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: mazinger7000 on May 06, 2013, 05:56:57 PM
interested to hear everyone's theories as to why the key date coins dropped in value there for about 1 1/2 years. is it because the hype inflated their prices for awhile, a general overall lull in the market, or some other reason?
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: davidt3251 on May 06, 2013, 06:17:48 PM
Personally, I see the number of so-called 'keys' and semi-keys' in the NGC census, and compare to other non-key years, and find other non-key or non-semi-key have less coins graded. Maybe there are dates that should be 'key' that arent? The strategy would be to buy the cheaper 'should-be-keys' and wait.

NGC census doesnt track the mintage numbers out of China very well, and it only seems to partly track Peter Anthony's numbers.

I think that its possible that the keys and semi keys were varieties marketed first by dealers who only selected the varieties from years with low published mintages (thus higher profit potential). But as time has gone on (maybe because non-keys had lower numismatic premiums they got melted more and warehoused/graded less, and surviving populations dropped), non-key years became closer to semi-key or key.

Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: Hippanda on May 06, 2013, 06:37:48 PM
Maybe there are dates that should be 'key' that arent? The strategy would be to buy the cheaper 'should-be-keys' and wait.


That strategy would have worked very well with, for example, the gold 1997 1/2 oz-
it has enjoyed a fantastic run up recently, doubling in price, after previously having an available supply and relatively lagging price...until now.

There are other coins that seem to make sense in the same way-
undervalued and not yet appreciated.  Pick and choose and place your bets...
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on May 06, 2013, 09:54:47 PM
Such an interesting chart and I have many questions and little time today...a quick few:
1.  Summer of the 2011 is the peak activity and your chart definitely shows it, but how to interpretate the decline of the key date panda?  Is because of the transition of affluent Western collectors to the newbie Chinese collectors?  Does that mean key date panda are a bargain right now?  What's the parallel to the US coin market?
2.  When did Peter Anthony's book came out?  did it created a definitive buying pressure?  Projection about his 2nd edition?
3.  The last data point is impressive, but early, this being the beginning of the May 2013.  Is that extrapolated value?

1. Summer of 2011 was extremely an bullish time for high end coins and many of them spiked as gold hit $1900.    While the chart doesn't show 1998 LD or 2000 mirror data, those sets went from $4000 in early 2010 to $40,000 in summer of 2011, only to retrace down to $20,000 today.  The peak created that summer was clearly an overshoot due to few aggressive buyers of 1982 and 1998 gold panda sets and many newbies entering the market and chasing whatever was hot.  As the mania subsided and prices began to fall the newbies and those that bought on credit slowly sold their high end sets and prices slowly came down. 

2. Peter book came out in May of 2010, which helped bring interest to many panda coins in an already bullish market for Chinese coins.  From September 2009 to May 2010 many cultural coins were up 100-300% and panda were up 20-40% during this time, after the book release panda started to climb even faster.

3. The last point is Today, May 5, the graph labels are semiannually so it shows July 2013, but notice the last data point is slightly to the left of data label axis mark.

Arif
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on May 06, 2013, 10:08:35 PM
It would be interesting to see a plot of the change in value of the "key denomination" (usually the 1/2 or the 1/4) of the each type (common dates, semi-key dates, key dates).  Thus, instead of investing $100,000 in common date sets or semi-key date sets, what if one invested $100,000 in just the key denominations of each date set.  To take one extreme example, let's say someone piled everything in 1997 G1/2s instead of full 1997 date sets.  The return would be much greater for the 1997 G1/2 (oh, regarding disclosure, I WISH I had piled a lot of money into 97 G1/2, but I did not.  I only have one).  The flip side is, I guess it is not always obvious what the key denomination will be.  If someone piled all their money in the 2002 G1/2, they would have missed out on the upward explosion of the price of the 2002 G1/10, so the date set may have been the better play for 2002.


You have remember the graph data is based on my sales, I rarely sell key coins from a particular set individually, because I prefer to sell sets and market sets to investors, so I really don't have much sales data for individual coins.  The only singles I sell are MS/PF70 coins for which it is very hard to make complete sets.   

Also, it doesn't make sense for me to have investors pile into only key coins of a particular set because for many coins it is not clear what will be the key coin 10 years from now.  If someone decides to do a telemarketing event for 1/20oz from 1990-1999, suddenly that denomination may become key for those years.  Also investors like to put $100K+ to work fast, it would be an impossible task for me if they only wanted 1/2 coins, when the reality is I am forced to buy all sizes from collectors and dealers everyday and don't have the option to say, no I only want your 1/2, sell all other sizes to someone else.  Next time they will sell all sizes to someone else and not even bother with me, who wants to ship multiple packages to make few extra bucks.

Arif
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on May 06, 2013, 10:22:36 PM
Personally, I see the number of so-called 'keys' and semi-keys' in the NGC census, and compare to other non-key years, and find other non-key or non-semi-key have less coins graded. Maybe there are dates that should be 'key' that arent? The strategy would be to buy the cheaper 'should-be-keys' and wait.


The reality is people grade coins that they think are worth grading.  Prior to spring of 2011 I hadn't bothered grading 1989-1993 or 2001-2006, but had graded every single 1982, 1983, 1994-2000 that came in.  So naturally the pops for 1982-1983 and 1994-2000 steadily grew from 2007 to 2011, but all those other years barely grew myself and other dealers saw no demand for graded coins from those less important years.  After spring of 2011, I began grading every 1989-1993 and 2001-2006 that came in and other dealers followed suit over the next two years.  Today I still don't grade 1986-1988 and 2007-2013 coins, I sell them to local investors that will hopefully sell them back to me when they become hot, at which point I will grade them and they pops will rise rapidly. 

Arif 
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: poconopenn on May 06, 2013, 11:18:17 PM
+1.  Thanks for posting this historical price data.

The key dates such as 1998 and 1995 were appreciated significantly immediate after the releasing of actual mintage data for BU gold panda by Bank of China in March, 2006. During 2006, 1998 ½ oz gold panda was appreciated about 400% from $450 to $1,800 and 1998 1/10 oz gold panda about 300%, from $120 to $350, while 1995 ½ oz gold panda from $500 to $850.  The average gold value in 2006 was about $650/oz. Therefore, if the base data is started from 2006 instead of 2007 in Arif’s chart, the appreciation of key dates will be much higher than semi-key dates.

Many collectors will not grade coin unless the value of the coin is high enough to worth the trouble to do it. In my case, I will not grade gold coin with value less than $1,500 and silver coin with value less than $1,000. This may be one of the reasons that high value key date has a higher graded population.
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: davidt3251 on May 06, 2013, 11:49:57 PM
Arif

Isnt this: "The reality is people grade coins that they think are worth grading. " marketing though?

Its a combination of the value the market places on the coin and the availability of the coin that drives a dealers actions.

For example, is it of value for a dealer to promote a 1990 SD set when they are hard to come by?

-David
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on May 06, 2013, 11:57:54 PM

The key dates such as 1998 and 1995 were appreciated significantly immediate after the releasing of actual mintage data for BU gold panda by Bank of China in March, 2006.


I thought the 25th Anniversary sets included a booklet with the revised mintage and they came out in February of 2007.  Was something else published before then.  Prior to these revised mintages coming out there was no way to know what was common and what was rare, so one had to buy everything.  The only reason I got involved in 2007 was due to rapid price increase in key dates, while the prices on ebay shot up, prices in private transactions were still slow to respond. 

Arif
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on May 07, 2013, 12:08:28 AM
Arif

Isn't this: "The reality is people grade coins that they think are worth grading. " marketing though?

Its a combination of the value the market places on the coin and the availability of the coin that drives a dealers actions.

For example, is it of value for a dealer to promote a 1990 SD set when they are hard to come by?

-David

I grade the rare varieties just as much as the common varieties, but only offer the rare varieties to someone that understands they are rare, if no one cares I just hold them.  Once I make a decision to make sets of a given year, I submit both varieties as they come in.  Going into summer of 2010 I had 32x 1998 1/10oz LD vs only 6x 1998 1/10oz SD on hand, only reason I had so many LD was no one was willing to pay a premium for LD at the time, but based on my random buying, LD were 3x more rare than SD up to that point in time.  If some had offered to pay 50% premium for LD, they could easily cleared 10-25 coins from me at $600-$800 each, instead it wasn't until prices got to $1200-$5000 that buyers came out for the LD in the spring and summer of 2011.  I hope to list a 1990 SD set possibly next week, even though it hard to put together in MS69, easy in MS68.  

Arif
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: poconopenn on May 07, 2013, 12:44:07 AM
I thought the 25th Anniversary sets included a booklet with the revised mintage and they came out in February of 2007.  Was something else published before then.  Prior to these revised mintages coming out there was no way to know what was common and what was rare, so one had to buy everything.  The only reason I got involved in 2007 was due to rapid price increase in key dates, while the prices on ebay shot up, prices in private transactions were still slow to respond. 

Arif

Yes, you are right. I should know better, since I was the one to write the mintage review at ebay in April 2007.

http://www.ebay.com/gds/mintages-of-china-gold-pandas-1982-2006/10000000003517751/g.html
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: poconopenn on May 07, 2013, 01:41:14 AM
Here is the pictures of booklet issued by Bank of China and distributed by China Gold Coin Inc. in Feburary 2007.
Title: Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on May 07, 2013, 09:52:49 AM
Yes, you are right. I should know better, since I was the one to write the mintage review at ebay in April 2007.

http://www.ebay.com/gds/mintages-of-china-gold-pandas-1982-2006/10000000003517751/g.html

I remember your ebay review.  Back then there were only a handfull of people buying pandas at premiums and most focused on silver.  This book catalyzed the rise of the gold panda and it took almost a year for prices of coins to get to a reasonable level based on date rarity.  Variety rarity didn't get going until May 2010 after Peter Book was published, but even that took almost a year for the information to get absorbed and as David notes it is still getting absorbed three years later as many are not pricing certain varieties on par with what they should be compared to key date pop figures.  While a few in the markets are fast to respond to new information the masses don't get aware until many months or even year later.  It took me 5 months to become aware of the Feb 2007 mintage figure release and 1-3 months more to use it aggressively. 

As you get more experienced you become aware of what is rare without the need for someone to publish it based on what is available to buy.  For example, I have believed since mid 2008 that 1996 1oz gold panda proof is more rare than 1995 1oz gold panda proof, simply based on the fact that I have handled 22x 1995 and only 9x 1996, but to this day 1995 is still perceived to me more rare by the market, until someone publishes otherwise.   

Arif