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Main => General Discussion => Topic started by: Russ 736 on August 19, 2014, 12:46:57 PM

Title: StacksBowers August Hong Kong sales results
Post by: Russ 736 on August 19, 2014, 12:46:57 PM
I followed the auction for the first section where the modern Chinese coins and medals were sold. It is my impression that things were selling below where I thought they should be. The 1984 Silver Pagoda NGC PF69 set did not make a minimum bid of $2000 and the gold Pandas went cheap, IMO. I am interested in how the other forum members who followed the auction feel about the prices realized.

Russ
Title: Re: StacksBowers August Hong Kong sales results
Post by: Dachs on August 20, 2014, 05:07:18 AM
Hi Russ!

Many thanks for your message. I also attended the Stacks Auction and was disappointed about the selling prices. Especially the prices for the Lunars and Unicorns are going down. I also was wondering about the 1 Oz Platinum Lunar Circle. It has a really good NGC grading and so I thought it will get a good result.

Today the Ding Fong Auction was also weak. Hope to see you at the show!

Regards, Herbert

PS: I am also interested in other comments.
Title: Re: StacksBowers August Hong Kong sales results
Post by: Russ 736 on August 20, 2014, 07:58:09 PM
Hi Herbert,
               Just to clarify, I followed the auction on the website from Sunny California. I have never been to Hong Kong but would love to attend a show there. I was interested in the gold Pandas and so don't follow lunars or unicorns. Thank you for that insight. I'm surprised more forum members have not responded to this thread. I know that many of them followed the auction and maybe even bid on some lots.

Regards
Russ
           
Title: Re: StacksBowers August Hong Kong sales results
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on August 20, 2014, 11:39:18 PM
Couple thoughts on the auction:

1) I bid on roughly 25 items and only won 1 item (1996 1/2 PCGS MS69 for $1673).  I think prices realized were very close to current market conditions for the majority of modern Chinese gold pandas, lunars and unicorns.  I had several 8g gold lunars in NGC PF69 that I sold hours before the HK auction and the prices I got were very much inline with those realized in the auction.  Same holds for gold pandas sold in the week prior to the auction at ANA and overseas sales.  For silver prices were a little lower than I expected. 

2) NGC premium for 69 grade coin relative to same grade PCGS coin is still running strong at 5%-15%, see an example below.  I point this out for two reasons, 1) a clear premium does exist based on my personal sales and this auction confirms the going spread, 2) many of the coins in the auction were PCGS, therefore the prices realized should be grossed up by roughly 5-15% to get comparable NGC prices vs believing the PCGS prices are what NGC coins would sell for today.   

$1315 for 1985 8g gold ox PCGS PR69 http://www.stacksbowers.com/BrowseAuctions/LotArchive/tabid/805/ProductID/809382/AuctionID/6023/Lot/40281/Default.aspx
$1494 for 1985 8g gold ox NGC PF69 http://www.stacksbowers.com/BrowseAuctions/LotArchive/tabid/805/ProductID/810334/AuctionID/6023/Lot/40282/Default.aspx

3) Unlike ebay or a purely online bidding experience where everyone identity is almost anonymous, floor auctions are a different dynamic (if you watched the auction most modern lots sold to floor bidders).  Often you will see collectors shy away from bidding against dealers who they regularly do business with or even dealers shy away from bidding up fellow dealers that they often do business with - these two floor dynamics often result in lower prices realized in a flat to down markets, which is what we are in today.  In a rising markets like late 2010 and most of 2011, the gloves come off and everyone just bids based on their own self interest and turns a blind eye against their competitors in a effort to secure a coin that is rising  in value rapidly or can be flipped for a quick profit.
Title: Re: StacksBowers August Hong Kong sales results
Post by: pandaguy212 on August 21, 2014, 10:12:48 AM
Does anyone have the link for this recent auction and are all the prices listed including buyer premium
Title: Re: StacksBowers August Hong Kong sales results
Post by: Russ 736 on August 21, 2014, 10:20:18 AM
Thank you for your observations and insight, Arif. I guess I just didn't realize that the market for NGC 70s gold Pandas was down as much as some of the sales reflected. As you know, my interest is 1/4 oz. gold Pandas. I bought the 86 MS70 ( only one graded 70) for $1200 and the 98 LD for $3000. The auction fees pump the numbers up but those are still deals IMO.

Russ
Title: Re: StacksBowers August Hong Kong sales results
Post by: Mak007 on August 21, 2014, 01:18:59 PM
Was the 1998 L/D 1/4 OZ A MS69 OR MS70?
Title: Re: StacksBowers August Hong Kong sales results
Post by: Russ 736 on August 21, 2014, 01:22:20 PM
It is an MS70. This coin has sold for 9-10,000 during the peak of the market.

Russ
Title: Re: StacksBowers August Hong Kong sales results
Post by: Mak007 on August 21, 2014, 01:27:20 PM
I JUST BOUGHT THAT COIN NEAR YOUR PRICE. THERE ARE ONLY 10 GRADED IN MS70 BY NGC. NGC IS SHOWING THIS COIN GOING FOR $6000.00. I DIDN'T  KNOW THAT THE COIN PEAKED THAT HIGH IN PRICE! THANKS!
Title: Re: StacksBowers August Hong Kong sales results
Post by: Russ 736 on August 21, 2014, 04:34:58 PM
Don't thank me too soon. It could be quite a while before it is that high again. NGC having it 6000 is a good thing though.

Russ
Title: Re: StacksBowers August Hong Kong sales results
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on August 21, 2014, 06:03:53 PM
The MS70 gold did sell very cheap.  You got great deal, it is worth around $5000.  Just other day I was looking at some paperwork and I sold that coin in September of 2011 for $9800, it was pop 2 at the time.  A lot of the MS70 are down recently, I had a few 1oz MS70s and sold them for much less than I believe they are worth. The challenge is I can't keep everything so I have to sell 67-68 and some 70s so I can continue to buy more coins.  The 1988 pt error medal at $5600 in MS70 was also a great deal.  It makes sense to me that MS70 didn't go for strong money because it was mainly dealers on the floor bidding, they typically don't buy 70s, they prefer to make their own through volume.
Title: Re: StacksBowers August Hong Kong sales results
Post by: Russ 736 on August 21, 2014, 09:59:18 PM
That is good to hear. I know that I have paid too much for several of my 1/4 oz. gold Panda 70s so it's good to know that I finally got a deal. The dealers not wanting 70s makes sense but I thought there would be more collectors bidding on line. I guess the economy really isn't doing as well as our elected officials would like us to believe.

Russ
Title: Re: StacksBowers August Hong Kong sales results
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on August 22, 2014, 12:34:13 AM
The collectors have been in hiding for the last 1-2 years, most of the transactions these days are going to investors or dealers similar to 2009.  Many collectors are licking their wounds from peak prices of 2011 and have been shy to invest more money in high value items.

Most of my business these days is in 1oz gold pandas, with prices down investors have been buying these bigger pieces up as play on higher gold and higher numismatic premiums.  

Currently my most disappointing sales are in 1/4oz coins, simply no buyers of that size at the current moment.  Which is strange because 1/4 for many years are actually very hard to get and often hard to find when completing a set.  It is only a matter of time before someone seizes on this opportunity, unfortunately like the 1/2 the 1/4 are hard to buy in bulk, so one has to do many small transactions.

The second most disappointing sales is proof sets, the prices for these just keep dropping (mostly due to lower gold), only long term investors are buying these and only if they can get 10-20 sets one shot.  
Title: Re: StacksBowers August Hong Kong sales results
Post by: Russ 736 on August 22, 2014, 07:11:53 PM
Hi Arif,
         I must be dodging when I should be weaving. I absolutely believe your market observations that 1/4 oz. is in a slump but until the Hong Kong auction, I have not seen any steals in the MS70 1/4s. It's a good thing that I am a pure collector and do not plan on ever selling my 1/4 oz. set. As a investor in MCC, I am a flop. Thanks again for your brutal honesty.

Russ