Author Topic: How has the Long Beach Expo been going? (September 17-19, 2015)  (Read 9714 times)

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Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: How has the Long Beach Expo been going? (September 17-19, 2015)
« Reply #15 on: June 10, 2016, 11:03:40 AM »
The 1/4 buyer bought all the years that haven't moved much, 83-89 and 10-15 at a very fair price.  The more common years are a nice complement to his rare 1/2 collection. Another buyer bought some key dates 1/4 that he was missing.  

All the buyers and those that stopped by to say hi were seasoned, with 5-20 years of prior experience buying/selling MCC coins.  Not a single customer showed up that I haven't known for at least 5 years.  It is quality of buyers that is the best indicator of where we are in the cycle.  When newbie buyers, newbie dealers and credit card paying customers start buying, then I will be worried about a market top.  So far it is just the seasoned veterans of years past that are doing the buying, some of which took a break during the bear/flat market.  I remember doing September 2011 show where 80% of my transactions were to buyers I had never known prior to the show and most of them had discovered gold pandas 3-6 months earlier.

Nobody knows where prices will be 3, 6, 24 months from now, all I know is buying coins is multiples harder today than spring 2008 and fall 2011, both times were intermediate peaks in the gold panda secular bull market that started in early 2007.  With inventory being tightly held and offerings coming in at a trickle I feel safe knowing nobody is going to flood the market with 1/2 or 1/4 and most coins of other sizes.  Also during this cycle much more information is available, pricepedia, NGC/PCGS price guide, dealer bid prices, auction archives, etc which allows many to make informed decisions and often decide to hold the coins rather than sell them at bullion prices to coin shops.  It is going to take $1600 or $2000 gold to bring newbies into this market, so far the gold move from $1100-$1270 is invisible to 90% of newbie buyers that will show up in the future.

NGC was brutal on my submissions, 21 coins out of 60 came back ms68 or below.  Quality was not the issue as I only submit coins I believe are worthy of ms69 or better, it was strict grading.  Only ms70 were 1995 1/10 ld, 2006 1/20 and 2007 1/2, will update web site today.

Offline silverpv

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Re: How has the Long Beach Expo been going? (September 17-19, 2015)
« Reply #16 on: June 10, 2016, 12:01:48 PM »
All the buyers and those that stopped by to say hi were seasoned, with 5-20 years of prior experience buying/selling MCC coins.  Not a single customer showed up that I haven't known for at least 5 years.  It is quality of buyers that is the best indicator of where we are in the cycle.  When newbie buyers, newbie dealers and credit card paying customers start buying, then I will be worried about a market top.  So far it is just the seasoned veterans of years past that are doing the buying, some of which took a break during the bear/flat market.  I remember doing September 2011 show where 80% of my transactions were to buyers I had never known prior to the show and most of them had discovered gold pandas 3-6 months earlier.

NGC was brutal on my submissions, 21 coins out of 60 came back ms68 or below.  Quality was not the issue as I only submit coins I believe are worthy of ms69 or better, it was strict grading.  Only ms70 were 1995 1/10 ld, 2006 1/20 and 2007 1/2, will update web site today.

I guess I'm glad I didn't show up! lol. I would say I'm part of that newbie buyer demographic. I would love to drop by but its hard to sneak out of work.

That is pretty crazy that 21/60 were ms68 and below! Did you do conservation on any of the group?

Thanks again for the insight.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: How has the Long Beach Expo been going? (September 17-19, 2015)
« Reply #17 on: June 10, 2016, 01:16:46 PM »
When you start calling in sick at work for multiple days so you can hang out all day at a coin show then it will be too hot to hold. 

Coins requiring conservation are conserved.  Keep in mind I am submitting mainly 1oz and 1/2oz, which are much harder to grade than 1/10 and 1/20, the small sizes 85% ms69 yield is still common, it is big coins that 50%-65% is now common.

Offline silverpv

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Re: How has the Long Beach Expo been going? (September 17-19, 2015)
« Reply #18 on: June 10, 2016, 01:44:45 PM »
When you start calling in sick at work for multiple days so you can hang out all day at a coin show then it will be too hot to hold. 

Coins requiring conservation are conserved.  Keep in mind I am submitting mainly 1oz and 1/2oz, which are much harder to grade than 1/10 and 1/20, the small sizes 85% ms69 yield is still common, it is big coins that 50%-65% is now common.

Ahh that makes sense... The pool of nice coins is drying up.. Interesting as that trend moves down stream.

Online KeepOnTrying!

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Re: How has the Long Beach Expo been going? (September 17-19, 2015)
« Reply #19 on: June 10, 2016, 03:31:44 PM »
A newbie (like me) can't be rubbing shoulders with the big dawgs buying and selling hand over fist. From my experience of stock market investing you need to live through a few boom and boost cycles to begin to learn how things work. I believe I have had good deals with KD and have learnt a lot from him. Continued dialogue with our more experienced members will surely increase the knowledge base and avoid pitfalls.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=12538.msg74144#msg74144

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=12595.msg74575#msg74575

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KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: How has the Long Beach Expo been going? (September 17-19, 2015)
« Reply #20 on: June 10, 2016, 06:01:23 PM »
Today not a single customer showed up to the table today.  All the mainland buyers went home Thursday night.  Even though I paid for the table through Saturday 4pm, decided to pack up at noon on Friday and call it a show.  Another observation from the show is nobody brought any coins to sell or trade, the retail crowd was there to just buy.  During previous peaks people were buying, selling, trading, flipping, etc.

You are correct living through a bull and bear cycle is the best education.  Pandora and Obsidian entered the market at the peak during 2011, this time around they are much smarter buyers and sellers.  Someone commented their presence at the show marks top in the market, but I countered they are too wise and prudent to make the same mistakes, when we hear about average Joe wanting to quit their jobs to become panda dealers then we will be near a top.