Author Topic: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017  (Read 3555 times)

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Offline Mirkkanen

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Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« on: February 16, 2017, 04:36:49 PM »
Who is there today, and what are you seeing? I wonder if this is actually a good time to be a buyer of MCC, especially from dealers who do not specialize in pandas. Are people letting things go at reasonable prices?

Any pics?

Thanks for sharing!

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2017, 02:47:08 AM »
All the usual players and dealers were present, with at least 6 mainland dealers. 

It was a great show to sell at, brought 34 coins from home or NGC delivered them to me at the show, bought 7 coins at the show (all pre-arranged, didn't buy a single coin on the floor) and left the show with just 1 coin.  Every show I wonder how many more years are left for the show business model, each show seems to be weaker than year before and expenses keep rising.   The business model for doing shows is getting compressed (lower revenue and higher expenses) and smart ones are not renewing contracts and instead opting to do shows only when offered a great deal on a table.  Also, 5 years ago dealers would stay until mid-Saturday before packing up, now Thursday afternoon some start packing, by Friday the best ones are gone.  I left at 3pm on Thursday with no plans to return even though my flight is for Friday afternoon.  Thanks to rain storm, my airline let me fly home Thursday night without any change fee. 

In closing, with supply so tight, I am looking forward to the next spike in prices.

Offline polldav

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2017, 11:39:59 AM »
Sorry for the newbie question, but how exactly did you go about selling your coins at a show? Did you buy a table, or did you just bring them around to dealers, show them all the coins, and make individual deals on coins they were interested in? Or is there an auction going on at some of these shows that you listed them in?

I am just a light collector and I am looking to sell some coins, but I am never sure of the proper etiquette for making a cash deal at a coin show.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2017, 12:57:45 PM »
After you have been selling for years you know who is buying and at what price. 

1) For newbies it is best to walk around and sell to dealers.  Buy prices are 10-40% below ebay sold prices, common stuff and items below $500/unit 40% below ebay, rare stuff or or items above $1500 10% below ebay.  I pre-arrange almost all my transactions so I don't have to spend more than a day at the show.  For example, you send me a picture of all your coins and we work out a price and then at the show we do the transaction with both sides committed to the transaction.  The only challenge is when the market is hot and dealers want to buy, collectors hold on tight to their coins because they don't want to miss out on higher price so they miss the opportunity to sell at near market prices, when the market is cold then collectors become motivated to sell and at those times dealers are offering 20-40% below the market prices because they are scared to catch a falling knife.  The secret is to sell when the market wants the coins and buy when the market doesn't want you coins.

2) You can also get a table, but the cost is $1000, plus three nights of hotel.  It is almost impossible to pay off the table fee by selling for a premium compared to what dealers offer you in option 1).  If you have got $20,000 worth of coins that you think you can easily sell, then having a table maybe ok.  The real reason to have a table is to buy, not sell.  In recent years for MCC almost all transactions are pre-arranged so opportunity to buy is very limited unless the market is really cold. 

3) Ebay is often the best venue for new sellers, ebay + paypal fee is 10% all-in, which is comparable to what dealers will offer you on rare stuff, but cheap for the common stuff.  The best part you will learn what the market really thinks about your coins because you will be selling directly to collectors.

Regardless which option you decide to pursue to sell your coins, the most important thing is to do your research.  There are a lot of free resources to help you decide what is reasonable price for your coins, view sold transactions.

1) ebay.com
2) HA.com
3) stacksbowers.com
4) www.yjzx.com
5) english.zhaoonline.com/trade/index.shtml
6) NGC price guide
7) PCGS price guide

The above sources account for 85% of all PUBLIC market transactions for MCC so they should give a reasonable view of the market.  However, keep in mind 95-98% of the market transactions are NON-PUBLIC so the price that you might get could be different from what your research suggest, simply because the PUBLIC market is not representative of what PRIVATE market is transacting at.  This often happens when the market is very hot or very cold.  During these times almost everything is sold privately and public transactions are often lagging the market by months to quarters.  This is why I put so little value in price guides and even the above sources when the market is very hot or cold, which is when most of the opportunities exist.

Offline polldav

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #4 on: February 19, 2017, 01:14:26 PM »
Thank you very much for that post, it was very informative and helpful! Especially the 40% - 10% information and the specific sites you listed for pricing outside eBay. That will help me figure out ballpark pricing depending on where I sell.

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2017, 01:01:24 PM »
Long Beach Show coming up June 8-10! Anyone from CCF planning to attend?

I think it has been 3 years since I've been to one, and I'm considering this one. Help me to make the decision :)

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2017, 03:00:52 PM »
I am set up at table #732, will there Wednesday-Friday 11am.

This is the best show for MCC.  With market softening and supply at multi-year highs, you may find some reasonable prices or dealers may decide to hold for the two summer HK shows.

Offline baron88

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #7 on: June 10, 2017, 10:34:17 AM »
Hi Arif, how was it at the show? Did you get to buy enough MCCs? Key and semi-key coins? Price trend? Were Chinese dealers actively buying? Information would be much appreciated.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #8 on: June 10, 2017, 04:30:16 PM »
Wednesday is dealer set up day and mainland Chinese buying day.  I had 2 pre-arranged buys and 5 pre-arranged sales for the day.  What was left I offered to mainland dealers and they bought up all my ms66-68 gold pandas and bullion related coins (common proof sets, common omps).

Thursday is first public day, I had 4 pre-arranged buys and 2 pre-arranged sales for the day and NGC delivered about 15 coins to me.  What was left I offered to mainland dealers and they bought up all ms66-68 gold pandas and few MS69 gold pandas and year of child. 

Besides the above I made no new buys or sales at the show, everything was either pre-arranged or sold to mainland dealers.  No retail buying or selling at the show and I don't blame them, even if you live 30 minutes from Long Beach, it is like 2-3 hour round trip, $15 parking fee and missing a day of work, why bother with all the hassle when online is so much easier - this is even worse for mainland dealer that has to 30+ hours of flight time and a lot of expenses.  Predicting when the show model will die to online sales is like predicting when will big box retail die to Amazon.   Sooner the show organizers go out the business the better it will be for dealers, investors and collectors as the overhead to do business will go down.   I had a lot of email and web site sales this month, which is further proof that shows in the US are no longer retail friendly. 

Very little new supply has come to market in the last 2 weeks, I think the goldsheet bump which led to mass dumping by those that didn't know their coins were worth so much has played out and now we are back to declining availability of supply. 

Offline bonke

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2017, 01:33:50 PM »
Arif

Your analysis is very interesting, informative and helpful.

Will we reach a stage in which modern Chinese coins will not be available in the USA at coin shows or via the internet?  You mentioned the lack of new material.  You mentioned the persistent purchase of our remaining inventory by mainland Chinese dealers.  Will this eventually result in the disappearance of most, if not all, of the modern Chinese coins from the USA?  Are you having problems replenishing your inventory?

Mark Bonke

Offline mazinger7000

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2017, 03:17:46 PM »


 Sooner the show organizers go out the business the better it will be for dealers, investors and collectors as the overhead to do business will go down.   I had a lot of email and web site sales this month, which is further proof that shows in the US are no longer retail friendly. 


but once the shows disappear, we won't get to have our little face to face chats that i enjoy.  outside of shows, there's so little personal interaction in this field, i will lament it when real shows no longer exist. it was nice to see you and talk at long beach.

Offline baron88

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2017, 06:22:12 PM »
Thanks Arif. In the past couple of years I was not able to find any MCC worthy of buying at coins shows here in Houston; used to be able to find a few. No doubt Supply is drying. Good to know mainland dealers are aggresive buyers. I was wondering if their buying power is affected by China's tighter and tigher money control policy. And I guess the anticipated market softness is short lived. Very good news!

Offline baron88

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #12 on: June 11, 2017, 06:57:36 PM »
As for coin shows here in the US, it has been like an event mainly for dealers to meet and trade coins between themselves. Coins shows may be ok for retail buyers but terrible for sellers. For US coins, a dealer usually would only want to pay 70% of the dealer bid price, which means you get punished for not being a dealer by a 30% price cut of your coin. I quit collecting US coins long ago because of such bad experience.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #13 on: June 11, 2017, 07:18:14 PM »
Arif

Your analysis is very interesting, informative and helpful.

Will we reach a stage in which modern Chinese coins will not be available in the USA at coin shows or via the internet?  You mentioned the lack of new material.  You mentioned the persistent purchase of our remaining inventory by mainland Chinese dealers.  Will this eventually result in the disappearance of most, if not all, of the modern Chinese coins from the USA?  Are you having problems replenishing your inventory?

Mark Bonke




Mark;  Arif can answer your question but i gotta butt in and say i agree w/ you that inventory of MCC will soon be gone to China.     Because MCC have been mostly sideways in price lately, i started tracking Empire small silvers or 100 yr old like the Kwangtung dragon designs.     In the last few weeks demand has gone up as have prices.     Maybe i will send a list of sold dragons w/ sell dates to CCL but he probably is already on top of it.    Fewer get listed and those at semi reasonable prices sell quick now, BIN for MS grades or bid too.     I remember when prices were about $50, then they went to $100, not anymore.....I think this segment of the market is seeing more action then MCC.............jeeper creepers.........who got the .....

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #14 on: September 09, 2017, 02:32:00 PM »
Same story as last time? Little retail traffic, or has the latest trend (rising spot prices for metals) caused a noticeable difference in show attendance?

What are dealers asking for, buying from each other? I wish I were there, but instead I'm stuck at home with a broken toe.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #15 on: September 09, 2017, 11:34:50 PM »
I didn't go.  What I heard.

1) one mainland dealer came vs 4 in June

2) weak retail traffic

3) strong dealer-dealer business, I sold a lot of coins pre-show and shipped them.  I bought 4 pre-show deals and had dealers ship to me

4) very little new supply of semi-rare or rare coins, a lot of 1oz coming out with gold at 1 year high

5) myself and others commented about not submitting coins to NGC ahead of the hurricane

Unrelated to Long Beach.
1) online retail demand very strong right now.  I am shocked by the number of new customers in the last 2 months buying $1,000-$20,000

2) very few old customers are buying

3) dealers are buying aggressively well priced stuff despite very tight margin on many coins.  High gold helps dealer unwind bullion positions, which creates demand for semi-rare and rare coins, that is why dealer-dealer business is so strong.  Also a few collectors are doing the same, had one buyer sell large bullion lot this week at 1 year high and reinvest in 1/2 and 1/4 gold pandas that are selling at 8 month low

4) mainland buyers wanting to buy again, I think the strong RMB is helping them find bargains.  Many buyers in mainland are using US addresses to have coins shipped to, which is great because I have no interest in shipping international

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2017, 09:35:12 AM »
Looks like the demand boom is almost here.    More online articles are out about China's petro Yuan tied to gold.     In time it will go mainstream then the mass sheeple herd will flood into Chinese money......

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #17 on: September 10, 2017, 02:50:43 PM »
Listen, I like your enthusiasm and I'd love to be wrong about this, but the "mass sheeple herd" (of Americans, at least) will NOT flood into Chinese money because they are distrusting of China and it's anti-American rhetoric and methods. There will be lots of scepticism and the transition will be gradual, if ever.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #18 on: September 10, 2017, 08:19:21 PM »
I understand what you are saying.     For about 11/12 yrs i have been accused of being a nut case and conspiracy theorist because i promoted that everyone should buy gold/silver back then.    No one understood back then.    Now they do and some even thanked me.   Started buying bullion in 2005 or 06.    Others ask me how i figured this out so long ago.    Read and study.   Learning is my favorite hobby because i understand being poor/hunger/etc and all the bad things that happen when in that situation.   Being poor is a great motivator...
I worked w/ many different immigrants on our family farm growing up.    They could not speak English so we used sticks in the dirt to draw pictures to communicate.    ALL immigrants understand every penny of the US dollar when they move here.    No way can you make mistakes or cheat them out of 1 penny.    I still say the USD cannot survive derivatives/debts.    I still say bullion and the Yuan tied to gold will become the new currency.    The people in the West will quickly understand Chinese money and bullion as the USD heads south just like the immigrants did w/ the USD....   
I hope it will be a gradual transition but capitol flight from the West to the East could happen quickly too......                    Being around many, many different nationalities growing up, they all have anti this or that rhetoric so i just ignore it all because we are all just people.....   


Offline pandamonium

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #19 on: September 10, 2017, 10:34:22 PM »
I was a military brat so i pay attention to military opinions.      Did you know China/Russia have the ability to shut down our warships, planes, etc?     They have superior weapons over the US weapons now, thanks to Obama.    Have read these articles for years.    We attack countries that try to circumvent the USD.   We cannot do that to China/Russia so the Yuan will rule.      Military (including a member here) also told me that they know Obama is a muslim brotherhood member back when he got elected.     This is how messed up the world is today.     That is why i suggest reading Steve Quayle and Dave Hodges Common Sense Show.    These are the only sites that occasionally post military opinions for the public.     I know, i am a conspiracy theorist but so far my theories have been fairly accurate.  Trump will bring out the Truth bomb soon.....

Asia Times   "Ship collisions raise spector of Chinese electronic warfare" by Bill Gertz is one article of many.   


Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #20 on: September 10, 2017, 10:39:01 PM »
 I suggested to you weeks ago that your make your own thread for this kind of post. Please take my advice.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2017, 06:40:51 PM »
OK, but my point is the US cannot bully China/Russia when they bypass the USD so the Yuan will rule......

Offline collectingcoins

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #22 on: September 12, 2017, 12:57:46 PM »
I'd prefer that we stay on topic rather than get side tracked on issues and topics that don't necessarily have any bearing on the Long Beach Coin Show.  I'm not even sure what all this yuan, gold, usd stuff is about anyway, don't care either.

Anyone have pictures to share about the conference?  Any good coins or medal pictures you can post?  I'd love to see and hear more details about this conference.  I hope these shows don't go away before I get a chance to attend one.  Sounds like they are becoming a reunion of sorts, where dealers more or less are exchanging/purchasing pieces from each other.  It appears the internet is not only hurting bricks and mortar (i.e. Amazon), but the coin show attendance too.  #sad.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #23 on: September 21, 2017, 11:35:10 PM »

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #24 on: September 22, 2017, 07:24:58 AM »
The petro Yuan backed by gold begins the middle of October is what articles say.    About 3 weeks.     Hopefully it will be a slow, long process and not a shock to the system.     At some point the world will want to buy the Yuan as a hedge/etc...     This will bring attention to Chinese money and coins/medals that we collect.     The US has a history of attacking countries that undermine the USD but China/Russia have superior weapons now, so we cannot attack them.      The sun is rising in the East and setting in the West sad to say.     May we live in interesting times....

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #25 on: September 22, 2017, 12:12:46 PM »
The article is 2 years old, 9/24/2017.  Gold is already denominated in yuan, but yuan is not backed by gold, not yet anyway.  Crude will also be denominated in yuan, soon.  China's fortune is rising, but it is a competitive world, so it is a best a slow rise with many setbacks along the way.  USA may not be the only superpower in a couple decades, but will remain a great power, nevertheless.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #26 on: September 23, 2017, 08:04:08 AM »
I hope you are right SANDAC and we will see a long slow process.    However the weapons of financial destruction or derivatives will cause the problems not the debt and it could unwind quickly.       Long Term Capitol Management was the first to understand derivatives.      Anyway we look at it, Chinese money has a bright future.......   

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #27 on: September 24, 2017, 09:15:34 AM »
Kitco   Marketslant    "petro dollar under attack" .       Maybe this will help readers understand.     Many on line are now debating the petro yuan and we should see the conversation on TV news soon......   that will wake up some sheeple...
 

Offline 1668Chris

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #28 on: September 24, 2017, 11:38:04 AM »
I'm awake and I'm not debating.  If the yuan is so popular why are so many in china moving their yuans into NYC and California real estate.  People keep emigrating to the USA not sure I know one person who emigrated to China.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #29 on: September 25, 2017, 08:20:18 AM »
I agree, Chinese are moving to the West including Canada.     People thru out the world love their countries but do not trust their governments.       Jim Rodgers posted a few years ago he was moving to China and teaching his children Mandarin.    Why would Jim do that?         Have read many other articles from top investors and all agree that this new system in place, the petro Yuan, will have a huge effect on the markets in time.     I have never seen another system in place to by pass the USD.      This is new territory so all we can do is speculate.     Hopefully it will be a slow change.    I would love to see the USD be the reserve currency for my lifetime but the markets are telling me differently.....
The Yuan is not popular yet...

Offline Pandaguy

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #30 on: September 25, 2017, 01:49:44 PM »
I'm awake and I'm not debating.  If the yuan is so popular why are so many in china moving their yuans into NYC and California real estate.  People keep emigrating to the USA not sure I know one person who emigrated to China.

The only people who want to emigrate to China are those poor and deprived souls from North Korea. China does not want them as refugees flooding across the border , hence the reason China continues to prop-up that horrendous dictatorship regime. Americans love America, and rightfully so. Wouldn't want to live anywhere else, INCLUDING China. Been there and done that, and kissed the ground upon my return to USA.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Long Beach Coin Show Feb, 2017
« Reply #31 on: September 27, 2017, 08:41:59 AM »
Our viewpoints are just opinions.     The market moves when it wants to move and we adjust to markets.      The world market is changing....