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Ty for the information. I am not planing to grade my little bar in the near future so i can wait and see what happens. Currently staying omp is better for this item imho.
Chinese Lunar Coins / Re: chinese lunar prices heating up
« Last post by ccl on Today at 10:07:08 AM »
The price of the pf70 lunar clorized silver ox has dropped.

I added the red line btw. Last week or two, the NGC70 (black dot), has picked up a bit.
I was out buying some mixing equipment for a factory I am consulting with and swung by the BOC (Bank of China today) after  they called and said could get a couple sets of the 2016  lunar coins for me.

These things are pricey over here in China (due to the low mintage) and very hard to get over here because everyone wants them (high domestic Chinese demand and low mintage for some of the coins). They could not get any of the 5 ounce gold rectangles because they only minted a few thousand, or flowers etc.  for me. The factional ounce rounds are unavaliable too at the bank even though are much higher mintage  because they are cheap, and everyone is trying to get them (and did). heh.

The sweet spot was the fans.....I was able to get two sets  of the fans. Each set has one of the  1/3 oz gold fans and  one of the 1 oz silver fans. Apparently that was the sweet spot between mintage amount  and price

These sets are going for an extreme premium over melt value (6288 rmb per set) which is about $984.24 (US dollars ) each. Wow that's about 3 x melt value. Holy crap batman!

 I may have more money than common sense and not be a very good Chinese coin collector since I'm a relative novice at this but based on my recent experience with the WWII 70th anniversary commemorative set this year (ordered a 1/4 oz gold and a 1 oz silver coin  for 3800 rmb and was told by someone on this forum they now are going for 8000 rmb a few months later) I bit the bullet and ordered 2 sets of the 2016 monkey fans. They could only find 2 sets for me so I ordered them both. Am I an idiot for doing that? heh.

They will arrive next month. I will post some photos when they come dancing into the bank.

I'm going to be weighed down and clanking going through US customs next year with these 2 monkey sets, the WWII set and the two 5 coin gold panda sets.

US customs gave me a good close look and going over last year with the gold panda sets and silver pandas and cash ;)

Which begs the question...How do you declare the value of Chinese gold coins at US customs? Unlike gold bullion (which is not considered a monetary instrument) gold coins count toward the 10K USD threshold for filling out the FINCIN 105 form which I never fill out because it's no ones business but mine,  so I stay below 10K USD so it doesn't get confiscated by Mr. grabby hands McCustoms guy.

Now, does one declare what you paid for the coin? (I did that last year and had receipts to verify it).....

Or do you declare the melt value of the metal........(I like that better).

Or do you declare the RMB value marked on the coin (I like that option the best if it's allowed).  ;)

Let me know if you are interested in the 5oz gold. I deal with them.
Chinese Lunar Coins / Re: chinese lunar prices heating up
« Last post by Rainbird on Today at 04:14:13 AM »
Some of my Chinese friends have told me that the Lunar Clorized Ox has doubled in value in the local Chinese market during the past month

The price of the pf70 lunar clorized silver ox has dropped.
Thank you for your participation there
I asked and was told that better fitting cores for rectangular items are on the way, or at least in development. I have no idea when they will be available.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia

300 dealer booths, close to 500 dealers (many tables are shared, like one I am at, but counts as one booth).

I had strong feeling this week that this was going to be a great show and today was dealer set-up and professional investor preview ($125 admission fee).  Simply put it was like 2011 all over again.  Ironically the first coin show I set up at was the 2011 Central States show and it was crazy buying and selling back then.  Today was no different, I can't remember the last time I bought and sold to so many different players on dealer set-up day and the night before, opportunities around every corner and every phone call asking will you be at the show.  Today was the third highest grossing show day (add the buys and sells) I have had since 2012, with Long Beach Sept-2011 being 1st and ANA Aug-2011 being second.  Just the deals that I participated in, witnessed or bid on I would estimate at least $400K in gold panda changed hands among dealers and investors today.  Tomorrow I already have $120K planned just on my end and I have feeling total numbers tomorrow might be similar today. 

Couple of insights that may not be obvious to everyone:

1) Something clicked in early April and flood gates of selling have opened, I have never seen so much urgency to sell rare and common gold pandas by collectors and investors.
a) Part of it is tax time, I know people had great year in 2016 and many took profits after trumps win and April 18th they had to pay up on those capital gains. 
b) A second factor which I believe is playing out is CDN issued the first gold panda buy/ask monthly newsletter goldsheet and gave it for free at March 30 Baltimore show to all dealers and to all their subscribers.  While many of the prices were flawed in that first issue (they have been fixed for the May issue) it potentially opened US coin collectors eyes on current values for bullion panda coins from mid 90s and those owners went to shows and shops and dumped their bullion pandas for 100-1000% over melt.  I am really interested to see if this selling into the market continues.

2) Who is the strongest buyer has shifted over the years.  In 2011 it was entirely collectors, today it is dealers making master sets or controlling key coins for master sets. 

a) For 1oz, yearly sets in NGC 69 and NGC 70 - retail buyers are strongest buyers by a little bit
b) For 1/2oz and OMP yearly sets in 68+ condition - master set buyers are strongest buyers by far
c) For 1/4oz in any condition - it depends, for semi-rare to rare master set buyers, for NGC 69 retail by a little bit
d) For 1/10oz and 1/20 in any condition - very little to no demand from dealers or retail, unless it is key coin like 83 1/20, 98 1/20, 00 1/20, 95 1/10, 98 1/10, 02 1/10, 06 1/10.  There was time when they were building series 1/10 sets in China, that has stopped, which has removed all demand for these coins.  Maybe it is buying opportunity, maybe it is value trap, hard to say.

3) Many US dealers are now setting up in HK at Heritage and Stacks shows in April, June, August and December, and after a very successful April show they are flush with money and short on inventory, which means they need to buy, buy, buy.  When dealers need to buy, it creates opportunity to buy from collectors at strong prices making them happy. 

4) The quality of OMP has deteriorated during this cycle, I saw a lot of bad quality OMP in dealer hands today, I don't mind paying up for 69 quality coins, but 67-68 material at 69 prices doesn't make sense and I passed on several lots today that I really wanted to buy but knew the coin had no 69 potential.  Other dealers didn't care about the quality as they have plan to sell it off in HK.  On a similar note, dealers have cut their submissions to grading companies down significantly, since large volume transactions require one to sell inventory faster than during slow periods.

5) Markets can change on a dime, when dealers have too much money on the sidelines they are buying aggressively, when they are broke (typically Nov-Jan when new issues come out or when banks stop ordering master sets) they won't touch anything unless it is deeply discounted.  If you are investor you need to be on the opposite side of what dealers are doing if you want to be successful, of course that takes a lot of guts to step up and buy when prices are falling, it is easy to buy when prices are rising.  I bought many coins today that I don't plan to sell for several years and it is quite possible I bought them too expensive, but at same time when the markets are cheaper there is nothing rare to buy, buying $10K of coins at market bottom doesn't do much for you if you have $100K to invest at that point in time.  Buy when you can, Sell when you can, rather than when you want is my favorite saying for rare collectibles and excellent real estate. 

If you can't make it to this show, definitely try for Long Beach, assuming market remains strong.
I would like to get $220,000.   

I suggest that you contact Jack Ma!!!  He is "local" and has deep pockets.
Buy, Sell & Trade / Sell: 2002 1/10 oz Gold Panda NGC MS70
« Last post by ccl on Yesterday at 07:07:06 PM »
Fake Chinese Coins / Re: Fake Workshop
« Last post by silberschatzimsee on Yesterday at 06:25:18 PM »
Sorry I dont know that analyser i better stick with reputeable dealers.

So no ebay "1 ounce of gold for 5$" purchases for me.

My fear is that at some time all that fake bullion will hit the forums when the inheritors want to cash in at some point.
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