Author Topic: LARGE DATE 1998 1/2 OZ - 1 day left on Ebay - only at $3500 so far  (Read 7076 times)

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Offline tjujoypop

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Re: LARGE DATE 1998 1/2 OZ - 1 day left on Ebay - only at $3500 so far
« Reply #15 on: January 02, 2013, 09:07:46 PM »
Ends at $5600.
 ;)

Offline Hippanda

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Re: LARGE DATE 1998 1/2 OZ - 1 day left on Ebay - only at $3500 so far
« Reply #16 on: January 02, 2013, 10:51:35 PM »
 Two notable things about this auction end:

1) $5600 is a pretty high price for sight-unseen coin from an unknown inexperienced coin seller with a no return policy?

2) And the winning bidder IS.....?
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: LARGE DATE 1998 1/2 OZ - 1 day left on Ebay - only at $3500 so far
« Reply #17 on: January 02, 2013, 10:54:59 PM »
Candy Man?

Offline Hippanda

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Re: LARGE DATE 1998 1/2 OZ - 1 day left on Ebay - only at $3500 so far
« Reply #18 on: January 02, 2013, 10:59:51 PM »
That is pretty funny Halves, I see what ya did there.... N29
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline Hippanda

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Re: LARGE DATE 1998 1/2 OZ - 1 day left on Ebay - only at $3500 so far
« Reply #19 on: January 03, 2013, 12:01:12 AM »
FWIW- Winning bidder looks like they know the market-
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Every bid is a last second bid. They know value or don't bother bidding.
Lots of "Munzen-Asien" listings- worldwide in scope.

They took a chance assessing this was worth the gamble.

"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline wg

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Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: LARGE DATE 1998 1/2 OZ - 1 day left on Ebay - only at $3500 so far
« Reply #21 on: January 03, 2013, 01:45:23 AM »
Very knowledgeable china mainland dealer bought this coin at a steal. 

In late 2007 this 1998 1/2 LD coin in OMP could be had for $1K, 2008 $1.2-$1.7K, 2009 $1.5K-$2K, 2010 $4K-$5K, early 2011 $10K-$14K, April 2011 to September 2011 sold six MS69 sets, in which the price allocation for this coin was $20K-$23K, late 2011 $10K-11K, 2012 $7K-9K, now $5.5K. If the seller had more prior transactions with Chinese coins he would have probably achieved $7K for this coin easily.

If I was not traveling and could inspect the coin upon receiving it, I would gladly have bid this up to mid $6K.  With eBay buyer protection, one can always return a coin for legitimate reasons even if the seller states no returns, the key is to do it immediately upon receiving it and have legitimate reason for doing so (gold went down or you found something else to buy are not legitimate; rim ding, scratch, damaged shipment are legitimate reasons).

Arif

Offline Hippanda

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Re: LARGE DATE 1998 1/2 OZ - 1 day left on Ebay - only at $3500 so far
« Reply #22 on: January 03, 2013, 01:57:33 AM »
Yep...

They took a very educated risk.  Although one I was hesitant to take, knowing a little about the characters behind the auction who CLEARLY don't know Chinese coins, nor what they had. Heck, the BRAINS doesn't want to pay more than MELT for it, because " at some point, it's still gold to me and I didn't become successful throwing away money on things just cause someone says it has a perceived value".      :blink:

I cringed thinking those two tossed it around the shop to each other, maybe dropping it a few times. Or teed it up and hit it with a golf club a time or two for kicks.  N66  N50


However, very true... The winning bidder knows the market and is famous. They are one of the top Buyers in China.


AND they are buying lots of better ungraded, and *gasp* ! .... MS67 and MS68s !


(Note to self.  Follow the leaders. They know what they are doing.)



« Last Edit: January 03, 2013, 02:26:33 AM by Hippanda »
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: LARGE DATE 1998 1/2 OZ - 1 day left on Ebay - only at $3500 so far
« Reply #23 on: January 03, 2013, 02:35:27 AM »
What dealers are buying today and selling today is often NOT the best proxy for what investors or collectors should do, simply because their time horizons are radically different.  If your goal is to be a market marker (first change your name to Hi-ByePanda) in which you have a bid and ask out for many coins for every moment in time, then you will tend to choose coins that are readily available (MS67-68) and are liquid (being marketed by dealers as HOT, with no disclaimer that you are purchasing the bottom 25% of the coins that have been graded).  If your goal is to make solid investment returns over 2-5 year hold period, then you will choose coins that are rare and at least MS69 grade (75% of all omp submitted grade MS69 or better on average, own the top 75% of graded coins, not the bottom 25% of the graded coins). 

I rarely (less than 2% of coins sold) offer investors or collectors coins graded below MS69, instead I sell, dump, liquidate quickly to dealers these bottom of the grading spectrum coins, so I can recycle the money quickly into new purchases that have a 75% or better chance to achieving a MS69 coin.  Another reason I don't want to sell low grades to collectors or investors is, if after 2-5 years they want to sell the coins back to me, I will have no interest in them, but if they want to sell MS69 or better coins I will at least make an offer on them.  Finally, I don't like to sell coins to investors and collectors that I don't feel comfortable owning myself, I sell coins I believe in and avoid selling coins that I feel will provide subpar returns.

As in all things in life, there are exceptions.  Sometimes you can't afford to buy a MS69, but you still want to participate in the market, in this case buying rare or undervalued varieties, mints or key dates may still provide excellent returns, not as great as a MS69 return or as liquid as a MS69 coin, but better than most other investments that are available for those with limited investment funds.

Arif

Offline Hippanda

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Re: LARGE DATE 1998 1/2 OZ - 1 day left on Ebay - only at $3500 so far
« Reply #24 on: January 03, 2013, 02:41:01 AM »
Probably very true.... For Dealers such as yourself.

Yet look at the top Buyers, like WG noted.  What are they buying, now, today?  MS67s and ungraded.

Just an observation.  I rarely buy what my coin dealer tries to sell me.  I try to buy what HE is buying.
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: LARGE DATE 1998 1/2 OZ - 1 day left on Ebay - only at $3500 so far
« Reply #25 on: January 03, 2013, 03:13:00 AM »
The person that bought that coin is primarily a dealer, not an investor or collector, he has multiple store fronts in China.  I classify myself as 50% investor, 40% dealer (20% MS67-68 + 20% MS69-70) and 10% collector. 

As investors/collectors/dealers (many dealers still don't grade coins) learn more about the benefits of grading (NGC has only been in China for a little more than a year) and history of condition spreads for collectibles in general, they too will embrace MS69 coins and sell their MS67-68 to the next cohort of up and coming collectors.  Take a look at eBay or Zhou price spreads between MS67/68, OMP and MS69.  Then look at the trend of this price spread, is it expanding, contracting or stable over the last few years - history of collectible markets shows price spreads tend to increase as markets take off or remain stable, only in bear markets do lower grades out perform occasionally. 

Arif

Offline pandacoins

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Re: LARGE DATE 1998 1/2 OZ - 1 day left on Ebay - only at $3500 so far
« Reply #26 on: August 31, 2013, 02:52:07 AM »
The link on this is expired. Too bad as I have one of these in the smaller size I might be interested to sell. Would be nice to be able to gauge a price as not too many of these turn up. Makes it hard to know.

Offline pandacoins

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Re: LARGE DATE 1998 1/2 OZ - 1 day left on Ebay - only at $3500 so far
« Reply #27 on: August 31, 2013, 02:53:45 AM »
Hey!! That's my coin in your avatar. Very cool choice! Yours looks to be in better shape than mine though lol


The person that bought that coin is primarily a dealer, not an investor or collector, he has multiple store fronts in China.  I classify myself as 50% investor, 40% dealer (20% MS67-68 + 20% MS69-70) and 10% collector. 

As investors/collectors/dealers (many dealers still don't grade coins) learn more about the benefits of grading (NGC has only been in China for a little more than a year) and history of condition spreads for collectibles in general, they too will embrace MS69 coins and sell their MS67-68 to the next cohort of up and coming collectors.  Take a look at eBay or Zhou price spreads between MS67/68, OMP and MS69.  Then look at the trend of this price spread, is it expanding, contracting or stable over the last few years - history of collectible markets shows price spreads tend to increase as markets take off or remain stable, only in bear markets do lower grades out perform occasionally. 

Arif