Author Topic: IMF "China's Economy to Surpass U.S. by 2016!" *must view  (Read 1745 times)

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Offline Panda Halves

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IMF "China's Economy to Surpass U.S. by 2016!" *must view
« on: April 26, 2011, 06:43:13 AM »
The International Monetary Fund projects that China's economy will surpass America's by 2016. This could have huge implications for many, many industries in the future to include the world numismatic industry.
Brett Arrends from MarketWatch writes: "whoever wins the presidency in 2012 will be the last U.S. president to preside over the world's largest economy." This is something to think about when planning for your future investments.

Cafferty File Video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dc1LU7n5E8UK

Cafferty File Story:
http://caffertyfile.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/25/what-does-it-mean-that-chinas-economy-could-surpass-u-s-s-in-5-years/

UK article with a depressing set of two photos:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1380486/The-Age-America-ends-2016-IMF-predicts-year-Chinas-economy-surpass-US.html

Offline BChung

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Re: IMF "China's Economy to Surpass U.S. by 2016!" *must view
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2011, 07:49:58 AM »
I highly doubt that is gonna happen. If one calculates the economic growth rate less real inflation rate (not official) China at best has not grown at all last year.

I am heavily invested in China, stocks, RMB BONds, RMB, Chinese Modern Coins, but I find that outside sources are being too optimistic about China's situation now. If Beijing were smart enough to have NOT  follow the money printing policy of the west, I will arguably favorably for China, but unfortunately that is not the case. Its creating serious inflation problems now, and its proving to be very challenging to put the breaks on. I believe certain industry will continue to shine but the story of blindly investing in China and getting high returns story is simply over already.

Not to mention please remember that China is still a close semi economic system, if the gates open and the RMB start flowing out, it might even suffer a crash, because there are just oo many over priced assets every where in China now.

Basically BE CAREFUL 

Offline Pandora

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Re: IMF "China's Economy to Surpass U.S. by 2016!" *must view
« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2011, 08:40:55 AM »
I highly doubt that is gonna happen. If one calculates the economic growth rate less real inflation rate (not official) China at best has not grown at all last year.

I am heavily invested in China, stocks, RMB BONds, RMB, Chinese Modern Coins, but I find that outside sources are being too optimistic about China's situation now. If Beijing were smart enough to have NOT  follow the money printing policy of the west, I will arguably favorably for China, but unfortunately that is not the case. Its creating serious inflation problems now, and its proving to be very challenging to put the breaks on. I believe certain industry will continue to shine but the story of blindly investing in China and getting high returns story is simply over already.

Not to mention please remember that China is still a close semi economic system, if the gates open and the RMB start flowing out, it might even suffer a crash, because there are just oo many over priced assets every where in China now.

Basically BE CAREFUL 

I have heard same thing from various sources...since RMB is not freely convertible, chinese people mostly can not invest outside china, and all the money is going into chinese assets, inflating prices. This includes coins too. Government keeps printing money to subsidize factories, stock, workers' salaries to keep the production strong and exports flowing at low cost. SO the real asset prices are much less.


Offline badon

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Re: IMF "China's Economy to Surpass U.S. by 2016!" *must view
« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2011, 01:40:51 PM »
When the precious metals drop, everybody gets nervous. I completely ignore it. I know what happens next, I'm not surprised by the drop, and I know where things are going. Numismatics can appear invincible next to the volatility of other markets, which is why I'm fully invested in them. In particular, Chinese numismatics have a fantastic future, and I am very eager to see prices drop. I'll gladly trade some paper profit losses in exchange for real coins at bargain prices. I rarely sell, in good times and bad.