Chinese Coins Forum

Features => Modern Chinese Coins => Chinese Panda Coins => Topic started by: storm on August 28, 2020, 10:01:43 PM

Title: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: storm on August 28, 2020, 10:01:43 PM
Some basic information:

The gold proof panda program started in 1986 and ended in 1996. The key ones are 1992  set (mintage 806), 1994 set (mintage 854) and the single one oz with different design 1995 (mintage 555) and 1996. (mintage based on Mr. Ge’s information)

BU panda program started in 1982 and it is ongoing.  The basic mintage information can reference the data published by china mint in 2007. Some key ones in each size:
1/20 oz: 1983,1998,2000
1/10 oz: 1998,2002,2006
¼ oz:     1995,1998,1999
½ oz:     1994,1995,1996,1998
1 oz:      1982,1994,1995,1996,1998

One difference is that BU panda program is continuing and proof panda program stopped.  In China, still most the people even don’t know the exist of gold panda coins, so you can guess how many people can tell the difference between a proof panda and a BU panda.  If new buyers bought some 2020 BU panda coins, some of them might be interested in the previous ones, like the 2019, 2018, etc. and then maybe the earlier ones if they are really interested. Proof buyers normally require more knowledge on panda coins.

Sometimes I compare the proof pandas with 12 oz gold pandas, similar situation. Is 12 oz gold panda rare? Yes. The 84, the 91 to 95, specially the 94. Are there a lot buyers? Maybe not. Regular buyers buy regular BU pandas, advanced buyers might choose 5 oz gold, some super rich buyers might choose kilo gold pandas which are all ongoing programs. Only few high end collectors would buy the 12 oz gold panda sets.

So go back to proof pandas, entry level buyers more like to buy BU pandas, high end collectors might prefer to buy culture related coins, the demand for proof pandas maybe not that strong.

The coins bring us to this topic are the 94 ½ and 94 proof ½ oz. If I have to choose one for my long term collection, I’m 100% sure will choose the NGC69 proof panda. But If for short term investment, I may choose the NGC69 BU panda.  Is 94 proof ½ a better coin for collection, I think so. But if you check the current market price, my dealer friends are buying BU NGC69 at $6000-6500 range, and paying $4500-5000 for proof NGC69.

Another good example is 95 ½ and 95 proof. 95 ½ is the No.1 BU panda coin needed for the master set right now and 95 proof in my opinion is the best small panda coin—beautiful design with 555 mintage. For collection, 95 proof is way way better. But check the current market price. My dealer friends are paying $15000-$16000 for the 95 ½ NGC69. You want to sell a 95 proof NGC69 at same price? Not a chance, maybe around half of that.

Why? Because the demand is different. BU panda coins got promoted by the master set sales, no such kind of program for proof pandas. For the past 10 years also, master set program is the key to push up the gold BU panda prices, without this program, the BU pandas maybe still highly gold content related.

Will it be possible a proof gold panda program in the future? I highly doubt it. I and Robert Mish, spent long time to persuade some of the dealer friends to assemble proof sets, none wants to do that. To start a program, you have expense.  You need to do advertisement and set up your distribution channel. Also, you need to have your products ready to sell. Even if you want to sell proof master sets, can you find enough 92 set, 94 set? 95, 96 1 oz?  Absolutely not. You are not selling one master set or two master sets—it’s not a program. You want to sell at least 50-100 master sets for a longer period.  The only thing I can think about is that partial sets could be possible—like from 86-90, a five-year sets program.

You may also say that use the proofs for the BU master sets. Till now, I don’t hear from any of my dealer friends or gift companies using proofs to replace BU ones. I have asked them many times during the past years and the answer was always no. Will it happen in the future? Who knows. But it’s possible. I think if they really can’t find the BU coins in the future or the price difference between the BU and proofs are two big, say more than double, they might use the proofs. But even that happens, it won’t apply to all the proofs, it will only happen to the very few key ones like the 94 ½ and the 90 ½.

There are not so many collectors for the proofs. You may disagree. Let me give you another example so you may understand easily. The BU panda rare version. I think as a panda coin buyer, maybe it will be easy for you to buy a different version of the BU panda than to buy a proof set. We know most pandas have more than one version because they were made at different mint companies.  We know 98 LD is a better version and we know 00 mirror one is a better version. If my memory is right, the 98 ½ LD NGC69 coins were sold around $15k while at the same time the SD NGC69 coins were sold around $5000 to 6000.  The 00 ½ mirror NGC69 were sold around $8000 while the frosted ones were sold around $2000 maybe? Look at the current price, there is almost no premium between the two versions. Why? The 98 LD and 00 mirror are definitely among the best versions of BU panda coins, with its tiny mintage, there is still not enough collector’s buying power to support the price. For those dealers who assemble the master set, rare version means nothing to them. At the beginning, once they got rare version, they exchanged it with a common version plus some cash. But now with no premium, they just use whatever they get. The common version ones were used up and hard to find now, but the rare version ones can’t find the collector’s support and have to go to the master sets as well.

Now move to BU panda coins. BU pandas normally has more mintage compare with the proof ones. But master set program used a lot of BU coins. For the proof pandas, collectors are the major buyers. If they don’t want to keep it, they sell it back to the market. So it’s always in the collectors circle, not so many leave the market. But for master sets, they were sold to buyers outside of the collectors circle, they left the market, they disappeared and they are gone for a long time. So even with a bigger mintage, the demand is strong and always need new coins to supply.

So can you just accumulate some key coins and hike the price? I think so, as long as the demand is still there. Are there risks? Of course yes. The program can be terminated by any reason, temperately or permanently. Without these programs, the BU panda prices will drop. The BU panda prices are highly related to the master sets sales. Also, the key coins sometime varied. My dealer friends who assemble master sets used to tell me” if you can find this coin for me, I will be able to assemble a whole master set”. These kind of “the only coin needed” include 94 ½, 95 ¼, 95 ½, 97 ½, 98 ½, 02 1/10, 03 ½, at different time period. The surprise among these is the 02 1/10. That year, someone paid a TV program to promote 1/10 and 1/20 oz gold panda master sets. It went well and sales were very strong. So a lot of 1/10 were isolated from the year set to assemble its own size master set. 02 1/10 could not be found enough to supply both 1 1/10 set and whole master set. The price moved from $400 level to $3000 level. 06 1/10 also did pretty well for the same reason. When the sales down, the prices dropped.  The 02 1/10 price  dropped to the $400 level last year and now I think in the $800 level. 95 ½ is the current key one, the most wanted. It started at $3000 level years ago, and went to around $30k at the peak, dropped to $7k-8k level and now around $16k. I know there were other factors behind the first price jump at $3000 level years ago, but now the demand is still strong. Can it go back to $30k level? If gold price is keep going up and master sets program goes well, it is possible. But it’s kind of risky. All the buyers I know at this price level are the end users who are using the coin to form master sets, no investors, nor collectors. I would spend the same amount of money to buy two 95 proof pandas and I will be happy and sleep well.

Besides whole master sets program, there are other gold panda programs. I spent years to persuade the main gift company to restart the 1/10 and 1/20 oz program and the new 1 oz program. My theory is in the future, the gold price might be really high and some half oz and ¼ oz will be super tough to find. If they can do the 1 oz and 1 /10 master set program, the cost will be much lower, the supply will be much better and it will fit different levels of buyers. Now they have 1 oz gold and silver program, 1/10 program, 1/20 program and master sets programs. The master sets program is still the best seller.

That’s all the information for now. I just wrote what I thought and it’s really not well organized. I usually don’t write this long here at the forum. I think the last long one I wrote was about the 1989 dragon and phoenix long time ago. If you like it and think it’s useful, I am happy; if you don’t like it and think it’s useless, I am sorry to waste your time. No matter you agree or disagree with me, I respect you. Different people has different vision and different opinions. I don’t want to convince anyone, I just want to express my own thoughts and only represent myself.

The only suggestion I can give is if possible, boost your connections. Try to talk to the top dealers here and also the high end collectors. That will help you. The time you bought a coin for 10 dollars and sold it to China for 100 bulks is long gone. You need to act before the market, this requires your vision, your judgment which based on the information you can get.

I am lucky that I have been collecting MCC for more than 20 years. I’m lucky that I have chance to connect with all major US dealers who deal with chinese coins. I’m lucky that I have good connection with almost all key dealers in China and I’m lucky that I know most of the high end MCC collectors in China. Once you have all these, you learn from each other and you know some inside information. I can ask questions like:

Do you know last year, China mint spent 800 million RMB to do gold panda advertisement on a high speed rail train and that helped the market a lot?
Do you know roughly how many master sets were sold each of the past years?
Do you know how many 95,96,97 5 oz bi metal panda coins are still in the China mint?
Do you know there is a 1988 platinum panda LD version which is a pattern of two known?
Do you know the 87 no P version and 92 high 2 version are experimental trials and should never be released to the public?

I can probably ask another 50-100 these kind of questions that I know the answer and you may not. But, so what, who cares! We are MCC collectors. No matter we are old, we are young, we are rich, we are poor, coin collecting is our hobby. The money you earn from it is limited, but the joy, the happiness you get from it is priceless and last forever.

Enjoy the weekend, enjoy coin collecting and enjoy life, specially in the middle of this tough 2020.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Slabman on August 28, 2020, 10:50:34 PM
 :thumbup: N18 :thumbup: N18
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: pandamonium on August 28, 2020, 11:34:14 PM
Storm, you need to make more long posts here.    We are all hungry for information and you have the experience and connections.

It seems the US collectors understand coins better than Chinese due to the rare US coin market that has been around for over 40 yrs.      Chinese were not allowed to buy gold/silver until about 2003 or about 17 yrs.    (I have never collected coins, just bullion until i found this forum.)   
Will educating more Chinese help?     Internet education is free.    I agree that gold/silver will roar in price soon so coins will be in big demand.    The market will change permanently.

Popular and hot coins get all the attention today.    The Proofs and other Chinese w/ low mintage & low NGC pop are often ignored but that will change as the market matures.     The wise are positioning themselves by buying the rare under the radar today.   

Keep posting here and providing more information!
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: baron88 on August 29, 2020, 12:00:14 AM
Hi Storm, it would be very much appreciated if you could tell us the answer to this question “Do you know roughly how many master sets were sold each of the past years?“.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: wittu on August 29, 2020, 04:17:03 AM
Hi storm,

 N40 i enjoyed reading your thread! Thank you for your insights!

I got a question, too and i do hope, somebody got an answer:

What grades are accepted in mastersets?

I am not a big grader, but this might give me a chance to understand, what condition is acceptable and which isn`t (just refering to the mastersets).
You said, the company checks them carefully, which is good. I guess, once they get graded coins, they can easily go by the grade, right? That`s why i am asking... just to get a roughly idea...

Many Greetings,
wittu  N48
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on August 29, 2020, 05:23:47 AM
A great article on the pandas and mastersets!  Perhaps you can write more about such articles.  Unfortunately, the Chinese collectors' community in Germany has shrunk to a very small number and the supply of good coins is becoming increasingly rare.  I have also heard from other collectors and a Chinese man with whom I do business that some Proof Pandas master sets have been supplied.  There are also 2 types of master sets.  A type where 69 and 70 coins were added and a set where 68 and worse were added.  Can you confirm that?  The coins they have named are rare.  But you never know how it comes.  I think the run will start again soon.  Then other series will also be affected, which will rise again.  Perhaps my beloved inventions and discoveries will also come out of my sleep.  It is the most beautiful series in modern china coins for me.  rare, beautiful and there are almost none on the market.  Maybe you will get a little more attention from other collectors :) I wish you can write more of these articles.  This encourages me to continue collecting in this wonderful collecting area.  Greetings from Germany!  N40
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: china-silvercoin on August 29, 2020, 07:35:54 AM
 N66 N31

Hey storm,

great post, please do it again for the silver panda market and give us your insights!
How is the demand for 1 oz silver panda master sets in China?
Are other sizes like 5 or 12 oz silver pandas also out of interest?

Btw, sometimes it is good enough to know the right questions, you may not need the exact answers.

So, please continue posting.

Regards
china-silvercoin

"The one who speaks the truth needs a fast horse." (Chinese Proverb)
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on August 29, 2020, 04:05:14 PM
Storm is one of the smartest collector, investor and broker that I have known.   I am lucky to have known him for the last 10 years.

The key take away everyone should keep in mind is the market is always evolving and the potential collector and investor base in China is larger than any country on the plant for the next century.  Don't worry about what is hot or cold today, think about what the market make look like in 20-40 years and collect/invest ahead of it.

I wise saying is never sell something you can't replace unless someone offers a stupid price for it.  In 2011 I sold a few 1992 proof sets and 1998 LD sets at $25K and $42K, respectively, used the money to buy summer lake home.  Yesterday I signed papers to sell that home at a stupid price and have already spent 70% of the proceeds to buy panda coins and platinum eagles, hope to invest remaining 30% in the coming months.  My money is betting that gold pandas and platinum eagles will rise faster in during the next 5 years than real estate.  Only time will tell, as nobody can truly predict the future.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: pandamonium on August 29, 2020, 05:22:49 PM
I agree that this rare Chinese coin/medal market will rise faster than real estate which is starting to collapse.     Have said this to many new collectors/friends but most do not get it, yet.     Have posted a few times this will be a monster market when the world wakes up to Chinese money.   Rare Chinese silver will have its day too...

I would have moved into the summer lake home and sold your present home...
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaCollector on August 29, 2020, 06:38:56 PM
Hi storm,

 N40 i enjoyed reading your thread! Thank you for your insights!

I got a question, too and i do hope, somebody got an answer:

What grades are accepted in mastersets?

I am not a big grader, but this might give me a chance to understand, what condition is acceptable and which isn`t (just refering to the mastersets).
You said, the company checks them carefully, which is good. I guess, once they get graded coins, they can easily go by the grade, right? That`s why i am asking... just to get a roughly idea...

Many Greetings,
wittu  N48

Wittu, the agent who bought the master sets from dealers to sell to the bank (and now has gone off on his own to form sets) did not buy graded coins. That is why Chinese dealers spent so much effort cracking coins out of holders before submitting them for sets. This is a significant factor in the diminished price spread between MS-69 coins and lower grades. What grade can pass? I know specifically of one BENT coin that was bought to be included in a master set.

Storm, you are indeed lucky to, "have chance to connect with all major US dealers who deal with chinese coins. I’m lucky that I have good connection with almost all key dealers in China and I’m lucky that I know most of the high end MCC collectors in China. Once you have all these, you learn from each other and you know some inside information."

So I have a simple question to add to your list: there is one collector in China who is widely known as the "Panda King." He has more Panda patterns in his collection than anyone else I have met and has photos of others that he couldn't buy, as well. I wouldn't want to name him, but what city does he live in? 

Thanks for the interesting post and happy collecting.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
NGC Consultant
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the 2020 Valentine Panda
www.pandacollector.com
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: wittu on August 29, 2020, 07:02:37 PM
Hello Peter,

First of all: Congrats to your award. You really really deserved it  N66

I think you got my question wrong- as you will notice, it is not my native language, haha-  so  I will try again:

I know they crack em out and they are not sold in slabs and i know, that mastersets affected a lower spread between 69 and lower grades.
I just ment, that if they buy a graded panda, they dont have to check the coin themself so carefully.

Until what grade would they buy coins, to put them into the masterset. The answer would give me a rough picture of: What quality is used in mastersets, and which quality is not good enough.

I could imagine, that simple eye appeal might be more important... But still a grade could give me a clue...

Greetings,
wittu  N48
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaCollector on August 29, 2020, 07:20:57 PM
Hello Peter,

First of all: Congrats to your award. You really really deserved it  N66

I think you got my question wrong- as you will notice, it is not my native language, haha-  so  I will try again:

I know they crack em out and they are not sold in slabs and i know, that mastersets affected a lower spread between 69 and lower grades.
I just ment, that if they buy a graded panda, they dont have to check the coin themself so carefully.

Until what grade would they buy coins, to put them into the masterset. The answer would give me a rough picture of: What quality is used in mastersets, and which quality is not good enough.

I could imagine, that simple eye appeal might be more important... But still a grade could give me a clue...

Greetings,
wittu  N48

Sorry for my misunderstanding. I think you are correct that eye appeal is much more important than grade. I know of many MS-69s that have gone into master sets, but the overall average is probably lower than that. I think a nice 67 would easily pass muster, but every deal is unique.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
NGC Consultant
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the 2020 Valentine Panda
www.pandacollector.com
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: storm on August 30, 2020, 03:09:48 AM
Storm, you need to make more long posts here.    We are all hungry for information and you have the experience and connections.

It seems the US collectors understand coins better than Chinese due to the rare US coin market that has been around for over 40 yrs.      Chinese were not allowed to buy gold/silver until about 2003 or about 17 yrs.    (I have never collected coins, just bullion until i found this forum.)   
Will educating more Chinese help?     Internet education is free.    I agree that gold/silver will roar in price soon so coins will be in big demand.    The market will change permanently.

Popular and hot coins get all the attention today.    The Proofs and other Chinese w/ low mintage & low NGC pop are often ignored but that will change as the market matures.     The wise are positioning themselves by buying the rare under the radar today.   

Keep posting here and providing more information!
Thanks!
I think Chinese could buy gold coins in the 1980s, 1990s, or even earlier. Maybe at that time not so many people had money to buy. Now you just need to let them know there are gold panda coins and they may let you know how strong their buying power could be.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: storm on August 30, 2020, 03:31:02 AM
Hi Storm, it would be very much appreciated if you could tell us the answer to this question “Do you know roughly how many master sets were sold each of the past years?“.

Hi Baron88,

I can't tell you all the details because some information should be trade secret. But I will tell you what I can. The master set program started in 2011 to sell 30 gold panda sets from 1982-2011. From 2011 to present year, almost 10 years, with ups and downs, the total master sets sold, based on my information, I believe the number is between 400-450 sets with 2012 the peak year.

Hope this answers your question.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: storm on August 30, 2020, 03:40:32 AM
Hi storm,

 N40 i enjoyed reading your thread! Thank you for your insights!

I got a question, too and i do hope, somebody got an answer:

What grades are accepted in mastersets?

I am not a big grader, but this might give me a chance to understand, what condition is acceptable and which isn`t (just refering to the mastersets).
You said, the company checks them carefully, which is good. I guess, once they get graded coins, they can easily go by the grade, right? That`s why i am asking... just to get a roughly idea...

Many Greetings,
wittu  N48

Hi wittu,

Thanks!

Dealers prefer to use OMP and 68 to lower the cost. If hard to sell, the grade requirement is high; if very easy to sell the master set, the requirement would be lower. A lot of 69 have been used and for some key coins, occasionally, some very low grade coins might be used and sets were sold at lower price.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: storm on August 30, 2020, 03:55:28 AM
A great article on the pandas and mastersets!  Perhaps you can write more about such articles.  Unfortunately, the Chinese collectors' community in Germany has shrunk to a very small number and the supply of good coins is becoming increasingly rare.  I have also heard from other collectors and a Chinese man with whom I do business that some Proof Pandas master sets have been supplied.  There are also 2 types of master sets.  A type where 69 and 70 coins were added and a set where 68 and worse were added.  Can you confirm that?  The coins they have named are rare.  But you never know how it comes.  I think the run will start again soon.  Then other series will also be affected, which will rise again.  Perhaps my beloved inventions and discoveries will also come out of my sleep.  It is the most beautiful series in modern china coins for me.  rare, beautiful and there are almost none on the market.  Maybe you will get a little more attention from other collectors :) I wish you can write more of these articles.  This encourages me to continue collecting in this wonderful collecting area.  Greetings from Germany!  N40

Thanks! I didn't know the master sets you mentioned. There could be one or two all 69 grade master sets. Different companies have different ways to check their coins. I love D&I sets, the gold ones are beautiful, the pt. ones are tough to get. Kilo silvers are very hard to get 69 grade and kilo gold will cost you a fortune.

Thanks again!
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: storm on August 30, 2020, 04:03:39 AM
N66 N31

Hey storm,

great post, please do it again for the silver panda market and give us your insights!
How is the demand for 1 oz silver panda master sets in China?
Are other sizes like 5 or 12 oz silver pandas also out of interest?

Btw, sometimes it is good enough to know the right questions, you may not need the exact answers.

So, please continue posting.

Regards
china-silvercoin

"The one who speaks the truth needs a fast horse." (Chinese Proverb)

Thanks!

I don't know the silver panda market well. I think 83-85 are still the key ones  and one oz program should be good since I have different friends selling the sets. The whole sets are relatively cheap, so maybe easy to sell. The large silvers didn't do good and hope they can catch up soon.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: wittu on August 30, 2020, 04:04:35 AM
 N34

thank you very much.  :thumbup:

Are you able/allowed to tell the possible lower grades? (trade secret?)

For the key coins: do they even use 65? 66? 67?  in times, when it it easy to sell?  N67

Once in a while i had the chance to get   key coins (for example 94 and 96 1/2oz), that would MAYBE be lower than 68, maybe only 65 to 67- i guess not higher, but also not lower --> but still pretty good looking --> no junk..

I wonder, if i should buy them, when the price is really good and much less than a 68 or 69 price (for example half of the price).

For my own collection, i wouldn`t need them, but they could be a good invest?

Sorry for asking so much and detailed, but i was thinking so much about it  :blink: :w00t:

Greetings,
wittu  N48
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: storm on August 30, 2020, 04:18:34 AM
Storm is one of the smartest collector, investor and broker that I have known.   I am lucky to have known him for the last 10 years.

The key take away everyone should keep in mind is the market is always evolving and the potential collector and investor base in China is larger than any country on the plant for the next century.  Don't worry about what is hot or cold today, think about what the market make look like in 20-40 years and collect/invest ahead of it.

I wise saying is never sell something you can't replace unless someone offers a stupid price for it.  In 2011 I sold a few 1992 proof sets and 1998 LD sets at $25K and $42K, respectively, used the money to buy summer lake home.  Yesterday I signed papers to sell that home at a stupid price and have already spent 70% of the proceeds to buy panda coins and platinum eagles, hope to invest remaining 30% in the coming months.  My money is betting that gold pandas and platinum eagles will rise faster in during the next 5 years than real estate.  Only time will tell, as nobody can truly predict the future.

Hi Arif,

Thanks! I'm not that smart but you are! You have been contributing so much to this forum! Glad to know you for more than 10 years. Besides the three key dealers living in the bay area, the coin people here who I communicated the most was you and Nick Brown who I missed a lot.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: storm on August 30, 2020, 04:24:58 AM
Wittu, the agent who bought the master sets from dealers to sell to the bank (and now has gone off on his own to form sets) did not buy graded coins. That is why Chinese dealers spent so much effort cracking coins out of holders before submitting them for sets. This is a significant factor in the diminished price spread between MS-69 coins and lower grades. What grade can pass? I know specifically of one BENT coin that was bought to be included in a master set.

Storm, you are indeed lucky to, "have chance to connect with all major US dealers who deal with chinese coins. I’m lucky that I have good connection with almost all key dealers in China and I’m lucky that I know most of the high end MCC collectors in China. Once you have all these, you learn from each other and you know some inside information."

So I have a simple question to add to your list: there is one collector in China who is widely known as the "Panda King." He has more Panda patterns in his collection than anyone else I have met and has photos of others that he couldn't buy, as well. I wouldn't want to name him, but what city does he live in? 

Thanks for the interesting post and happy collecting.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
NGC Consultant
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the 2020 Valentine Panda
www.pandacollector.com

HI Peter,

The answer is Shenzhen! He doesn't have the picture of the 1988 pt panda LD and many friends want his 97 5 oz bi-metal panda.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaCollector on August 30, 2020, 07:02:28 AM
HI Peter,

The answer is Shenzhen! He doesn't have the picture of the 1988 pt panda LD and many friends want his 97 5 oz bi-metal panda.

Hi Storm, bravo and welcome back to the Chinese Coin Forum. Your knowledge and experience will be greatly appreciated here.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
NGC Consultant
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the 2020 Valentine Panda
www.pandacollector.com

Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaCollector on August 30, 2020, 07:11:45 AM
N34

thank you very much.  :thumbup:

Are you able/allowed to tell the possible lower grades? (trade secret?)

For the key coins: do they even use 65? 66? 67?  in times, when it it easy to sell?  N67

Once in a while i had the chance to get   key coins (for example 94 and 96 1/2oz), that would MAYBE be lower than 68, maybe only 65 to 67- i guess not higher, but also not lower --> but still pretty good looking --> no junk..

I wonder, if i should buy them, when the price is really good and much less than a 68 or 69 price (for example half of the price).

For my own collection, i wouldn`t need them, but they could be a good invest?

Sorry for asking so much and detailed, but i was thinking so much about it  :blink: :w00t:

Greetings,
wittu  N48

Wittu,

I think your challenge would be to get full value for the lower grade coins. It's a very thin market. There may be, probably, only one true buyer for the low-grade key date coins. It is unlikely that you could sell directly to him and any go-betweens will want minimize their cost and risk, so you need a clear strategy to profit from this. There is potential, good luck.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
NGC Consultant
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the 2020 Valentine Panda
www.pandacollector.com
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: pandamonium on August 30, 2020, 08:36:38 AM
Hi Baron88,

I can't tell you all the details because some information should be trade secret. But I will tell you what I can. The master set program started in 2011 to sell 30 gold panda sets from 1982-2011. From 2011 to present year, almost 10 years, with ups and downs, the total master sets sold, based on my information, I believe the number is between 400-450 sets with 2012 the peak year.

Hope this answers your question.




400 - 450 master sets sold!?     Wow.    All sizes of gold pandas too?     (Some sets are just 1 oz.)     No wonder supply is so thin....
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Birdman on August 30, 2020, 11:53:06 AM
From 2011 to present year, almost 10 years, with ups and downs, the total master sets sold, based on my information, I believe the number is between 400-450 sets with 2012 the peak year.

How interesting to hear such information from a knowledgeable individual.  To think that 400+ of every key and semi-key coin is now likely off the market for a long time, locked up in these sets, is fascinating.  And it continues coin-by-coin, set-by-set, month-by-month.

+1 for the insights, storm.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaAccumulator on August 30, 2020, 12:10:11 PM
What a nice discussion. I am lucky to have known storm for over 3 years, through this Forum. For that reason, I thank Snowball for creating and maintaining this platform, to connect us together. I wish I have known storm sooner, I have learnt a lot from him. As Arif stated, he is the collector, investor and researcher, perhaps with the broadest knowledge on MCC. So storm, please keep contributing!

400-450 master set sold over a period of 10 years isn't a big number if you divide by ten, yet, it can create a huge demand on certain key date coins and jump up the prices. 
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: baron88 on August 30, 2020, 12:30:33 PM
Hi Baron88,

I can't tell you all the details because some information should be trade secret. But I will tell you what I can. The master set program started in 2011 to sell 30 gold panda sets from 1982-2011. From 2011 to present year, almost 10 years, with ups and downs, the total master sets sold, based on my information, I believe the number is between 400-450 sets with 2012 the peak year.

Hope this answers your question.

Thanks for the valuable information!  I feel sorry for the buyer of the master set with a BENT coin included as Peter mentioned. I wonder if such a defect is disclosed.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on August 30, 2020, 12:59:00 PM
I think the discussion is very good!  Can I throw in the round whether other Chinese coins can follow the run?  I don't collect very many pandas but other series of modern china coins.  @ Storm they have a lot of insight into collector circles.  Do you (and also other users?) Think that the other series will wake up from their sleep?  I like to collect discoveries and inventions and I hope that this series will perhaps one day be sold in a kind of master gold set.  Or do you think it is better to specialize in pandas?  The China market is a bit divided at the moment.  The coin001 is getting more and more popular and the kms rates are increasing continuously.  The circulation coins proof are also increasing.  As the old dollar coin market goes up.  Due to the split up of the market, it is not easy what to collect.  What is your opinion on this ?  Greetings from Germany N40
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: mowi on August 30, 2020, 01:37:01 PM
Hi Storm, thanks for starting this tread with such a well written post, sharing your knowledge and initiating great discussions.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: bonke on August 30, 2020, 02:36:14 PM
Storm

Did you help create the early Master Sets (and the packaging)?  Long ago, I would visit a China Gold Coin Inc. store in southwestern Beijing and see a Master Set in the display case, along with a wide range of other modern chinese coins.  The coins were placed in hard plastic capsules.  The 4-5 coins for each year were inserted in beautiful maple holders.  All of these holders were layered in drawers in a very large maple box.  It reminded me of the holders and display boxes used for the 2007 25th Anniversary Panda gold proof set (25-1/25th oz gold panda coins).   It appeared the presentation in the display holders and box was as important or more important than the coins themselves.

I did not realize the Master Sets originated in 2011.  I thought I was seeing them in this store earlier in the century.  Still, I am aging and my memory of what I did or did not see during a particular trip is fading.

Are these Master Sets sold in the same display holders and boxes?  If so, the boxes must be very large (and heavy) to accommodate 39 years of coins in all denominations.

Thanks for sharing your extensive knowledge with us.  I do really appreciate it.

Mark Bonke
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: xc on August 30, 2020, 02:56:11 PM
Thank you Storm for starting the interesting thread with tons of info. Following up Bonke's post, does anyone have pictures of the "master set" in their presentable selling packagings? "Master set" is mentioned so many times in the forum and I am just curious to see one  :001_smile: Thanks.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Birdman on August 30, 2020, 03:04:06 PM
Thank you Storm for starting the interesting thread with tons of info. Following up Bonke's post, does anyone have pictures of the "master set" in their presentable selling packagings? "Master set" is mentioned so many times in the forum and I am just curious to see one  :001_smile: Thanks.

I'm not sure if this is how they are selling them now, but I'm always enjoyed this presentation style:  http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=8699.msg50579#msg50579
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: xc on August 30, 2020, 03:11:20 PM
N31 Magnificent! Thanks for the reference, Birdman!
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Pandora on August 30, 2020, 04:18:40 PM
I am so lucky and previlaiged to know Storm, Arif, pandaguy212, Birdman, Peter, Clark and so many other collectors on this forum. I would specially mention Pandahalves!  He represented the heart of panda collector community here. Like Storm, he is big hearted. I and many others here owe to him the awareness and popularity of gold panda half coins. He has many of the most coveted of these coins in ms70 grade. We miss you Pandahalves here! 
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaCollector on August 30, 2020, 05:27:38 PM
Thank you Storm for starting the interesting thread with tons of info. Following up Bonke's post, does anyone have pictures of the "master set" in their presentable selling packagings? "Master set" is mentioned so many times in the forum and I am just curious to see one  :001_smile: Thanks.

This is an advertisement for a master set by the Beijing Rural Commercial Bank:

(http://www.pandacollector.com/0284.masterset.jpg)

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
NGC Consultant
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the 2020 Valentine Panda
www.pandacollector.com
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: pandamonium on August 30, 2020, 05:29:17 PM
A few years ago Xu Hong had a Master Set of NGC PF 69 gold pandas.      For me that is the set to own.

1995 G25Y MS 69 LD BU 1/4 gold panda   $3,999  No longer available     Ebay 313188141008   I think it sold.
LD 1,150 surv pop   SD 1,350 surv pop Panda book.   It was posted here that 95 is the rarest.

The 95 is the hot coin today.    New collectors look at Panda book for other early year gold panda surv. pop 1/4.     Some are lower (98 LD & 2000 mirror), most higher (91 - 99) but close to 95 numbers.     Quick look in book so maybe i missed some.    Point is that most of the 1990's have a bright price future.     Many are priced very cheap in comparison.....

Gold/silver will spike up again soon and the Chinese market could mature quickly.    Not much time left to buy at these prices...

Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: xc on August 30, 2020, 05:59:47 PM
This is an advertisement for a master set by the Beijing Rural Commercial Bank:

(http://www.pandacollector.com/0284.masterset.jpg)

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
NGC Consultant
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the 2020 Valentine Panda
www.pandacollector.com
They should reserve more slots for people to keep on buying and adding for coins in coming years, haha. Anyway, this is awesome, thanks!
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Birdman on August 30, 2020, 07:08:12 PM
They've been promoting for a while.  Here is a good one from 2012 :) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WW1MgsUbj70
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaCollector on August 30, 2020, 07:15:23 PM
They've been promoting for a while.  Here is a good one from 2012 :) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WW1MgsUbj70

Much of the music to this video is very, very similar to music in the film, "A Beautiful Mind."

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
NGC Consultant
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the 2020 Valentine Panda
www.pandacollector.com
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on August 30, 2020, 09:35:07 PM
I have never seen that video, thanks for sharing.  The master set presentation is quite impressive, notice only the front of the coin is easy to view when sliding the trays out, which means a coins that is 69 on the front and 67 on the back is a better candidate than 68 on both sides. Good front eye appeal is the key to getting coins into sets.

1982-2012 set would required 5 trays and could have been completed in January of 2012.  I believe that was the first year sets were sold.  2018 would require the 6th tray but demand peaked in 2017 for the sets.  My sense is next short term demand peak will be 2023 when 7th tray is added being added. 
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaAccumulator on August 30, 2020, 10:23:30 PM
I wonder when the seventh tray is required, then they must install wheels for the box, as it would be too heavy to carry over with arms.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: baron88 on August 31, 2020, 12:20:44 AM
One thing for sure is a master set cannot be stored in a bank safe deposit box.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeepOnTrying! on August 31, 2020, 01:58:02 AM
What is the approximate cost of a set nowadays? Thanks.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaAccumulator on August 31, 2020, 02:11:52 AM
What is the approximate cost of a set nowadays? Thanks.
It was selling for close to one million RMB ($140-150K) earlier this year, with the higher gold spot, the price must be higher now.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: china-silvercoin on August 31, 2020, 09:07:23 AM
Thanks!

I don't know the silver panda market well. I think 83-85 are still the key ones  and one oz program should be good since I have different friends selling the sets. The whole sets are relatively cheap, so maybe easy to sell. The large silvers didn't do good and hope they can catch up soon.

Dear Storm, could you say how Many silver master sets are sold by your friends in China?

or maybe give your best estimation!

Many thanks in advance.

china-silvercoin
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: storm on August 31, 2020, 12:11:44 PM
Dear Storm, could you say how Many silver master sets are sold by your friends in China?

or maybe give your best estimation!

Many thanks in advance.

china-silvercoin

Dear china-silvercoin,

Sorry I really don't know. Silver sets are easy to assemble compare with the gold ones, so many dealers are also selling to collectors. I think key ones are still the three 27g ones, followed by 87 and 00. Not 100% sure on this and really no chance to tell you the answer. Sorry.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaCollector on August 31, 2020, 05:26:26 PM
Dear Storm, could you say how Many silver master sets are sold by your friends in China?

or maybe give your best estimation!

Many thanks in advance.

china-silvercoin

One important difference between a gold master set and a silver master set is who sells it. Gold master sets are sold by banks to their customer-investors. Silver sets are sold by dealers to their customers. The value of bank distribution is enormous relative to dealer distribution. In my view, silver Panda coin sets will become important if and when they are promoted by banks in China.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
NGC Consultant
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the 2020 Valentine Panda
www.pandacollector.com

Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: comeaux on August 31, 2020, 07:57:29 PM
This post by Storm is by far the most informative and interesting post I've seen on this forum in a long time, excellent job !!!

I'll echo what others have said, thanks very much for posting this information and look forward to more like this.  :thumbup:

The only thing missing is a follow-up post by Poconopenn to add his infinite wisdom to an already spectacular message.

I and most people will never be able to provide this level of information as we do not have the direct insight into the Chinese market.     
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: dynamike51 on August 31, 2020, 09:55:51 PM
Comeaux,

I couldn't agree more. We have heard "mastersets" on this forum for a long time, but no one has really explained the inner workings until storm's post. Now I'm clear on why some buyers are willing to pay more for certain BU coins but not the proofs.

I'm looking forward to his next informative post. Thank you, storm.  N31 N31
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on August 31, 2020, 11:45:02 PM
Equally important to master sets orders is RMB strength.  RMB today is the strongest it has been in the last year.  Strong RMB means mainland can pay more USD for the coins without raising the price in RMB.  If RMB can get back to all its time low (strong) of 6.2 prices in USD could easily spike 20-30% with flat gold.  Of course if the dollar does get that weak gold would probably be at $2500. 
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Pandora on September 01, 2020, 06:20:17 PM
Equally important to master sets orders is RMB strength.  RMB today is the strongest it has been in the last year.  Strong RMB means mainland can pay more USD for the coins without raising the price in RMB.  If RMB can get back to all its time low (strong) of 6.2 prices in USD could easily spike 20-30% with flat gold.  Of course if the dollar does get that weak gold would probably be at $2500. 

I see continued weakness in USD - projecting Gold to 2300+ near term after taking a short detour to may be 1900.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeepOnTrying! on September 01, 2020, 06:23:19 PM
It was selling for close to one million RMB ($140-150K) earlier this year, with the higher gold spot, the price must be higher now.

Thanks a lot for the answer. Assembling a complete set like that and keeping it current must be very fulfilling as a collector.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeepOnTrying! on September 01, 2020, 06:24:55 PM
Thanks @storm for your generous information, more than I can learn in many years of collection.
Best wishes and +1.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeepOnTrying! on September 01, 2020, 06:27:33 PM
I see continued weakness in USD - projecting Gold to 2300+ near term after taking a short detour to may be 1900.

Do you foresee a drop to say 1600 anytime in the next 5 years?
Thanks.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Pandora on September 01, 2020, 06:34:56 PM
Do you foresee a drop to say 1600 anytime in the next 5 years?
Thanks.

Yes, from 2300+ it could drop to 1700-1800 range (may be late this year) . After that, it may take off big time. Disclaimer - I am not expert on Gold. I am quoting what I hear from experts.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: tater on September 01, 2020, 06:44:13 PM
Great posts here.  Thanks I have learned a lot.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeepOnTrying! on September 01, 2020, 09:11:48 PM
Yes, from 2300+ it could drop to 1700-1800 range (may be late this year) . After that, it may take off big time. Disclaimer - I am not expert on Gold. I am quoting what I hear from experts.
Thanks. I am just trying to gauge opinions of what a new bottom for gold may be in future. After the last run up into the 1800s it didn’t seem to go below 1000. And with the current scarcity of coins in the market it probably means that a lot of people have bought at the current peaks. Thanks again and best wishes.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: pandamonium on September 02, 2020, 10:24:23 AM
Storm;   What are the hot coins in China today and what are prices in USD?.....
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: baron88 on September 02, 2020, 08:37:50 PM
FYI, there is a 1982-2019 master set of the 1/10 Oz (1982-2015) and 3 gram (2016-2019) gold panda coins in NGC MS69 grade listed on eBay for $17,900. https://www.ebay.com/itm/master-set-1982-2019-1-10oz-gold-panda-coin-NGC-MS69/254247217962?hash=item3b3250ab2a:g:80gAAOSwxGNc7jXN
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Birdman on September 02, 2020, 08:50:52 PM
FYI, there is a 1982-2019 master set of the 1/10 Oz (1982-2015) and 3 gram (2016-2019) gold panda coins in NGC MS69 grade listed on eBay for $17,900. https://www.ebay.com/itm/master-set-1982-2019-1-10oz-gold-panda-coin-NGC-MS69/254247217962?hash=item3b3250ab2a:g:80gAAOSwxGNc7jXN

At first glance, that price seems like it leaves plenty of room for a very nice premium for the person putting together the set, compared to the price that needs to be paid for the individual coins.  I wonder what price the set actually sells for off of eBay.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeepOnTrying! on September 02, 2020, 09:35:29 PM
At first glance, that price seems like it leaves plenty of room for a very nice premium for the person putting together the set, compared to the price that needs to be paid for the individual coins.  I wonder what price the set actually sells for off of eBay.
I ran a very rough calculation of the cost of individual coins based on what I saw on and off eBay in the last three years and the total came to about $16,258. Therefore $17,900 may be a bargain especially in the current market.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Mirkkanen on September 02, 2020, 11:17:06 PM
Show your work ;)
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeepOnTrying! on September 02, 2020, 11:39:21 PM
Show your work ;)
Median price ~$230. Maybe 1/3rd between $300-599. 1995 $1000+, 1998 $1500+, 2002 $2000+, 2006 $1300.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Mirkkanen on September 02, 2020, 11:45:01 PM
OK, I see. But *currently* severql of thr higher value coins csn be purchased for significantly cheaper:
1995 for $900
1998 for $1100
2002 for $900
2006 for $600
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: dynamike51 on September 03, 2020, 12:05:59 AM
Median price ~$230. Maybe 1/3rd between $300-599. 1995 $1000+, 1998 $1500+, 2002 $2000+, 2006 $1300.


I'll sell you a 1995, 1998, 2002, 2006 (all 1/10 oz, and NGC MS69) for $5800 via PP
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeepOnTrying! on September 03, 2020, 12:09:13 AM
OK, I see. But *currently* severql of thr higher value coins csn be purchased for significantly cheaper:
1995 for $900
1998 for $1100
2002 for $900
2006 for $600

Yes I know. I have noticed that trend recently. It’s either the coins were overpriced then or that’s what they were supposed to cost then. The point being made is that if you put together such a set in the last 3 years that would have been pricey. If you acquired the coins for the set more than 10years ago for example, your costs would be much less and your profit margin more.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: wittu on September 07, 2020, 01:32:30 PM
Hello again,

this one (1996 1/2oz) i just bought at an auction house (shop) for 2000 USD, but i can send it back for free, if i want to.

Both sides seem a little dirty, maybe a few small hairlines... but more dirty , cause it was kept without a capsule.

My main question/concern:
On the front there is 1 real scratch. The picture is pretty brutal. You don`t see it from each angle and it is not obvious on the first look.

Buy? Or no buy?

Would be as an invest, cause of the mastersets? For my private collection i have 2 wonderful looking OMP LD  :001_tt1:

Please look at the links attached. With a mobile phone through a magnifying glass  N21 N2


Many greetings,
wittu  N48

(https://www.bilder-upload.eu/thumb/1c7879-1599499846.jpg)

(https://www.bilder-upload.eu/thumb/9670a1-1599499632.jpg)

https://www.bilder-upload.eu/bild-f46ca4-1599500059.jpg.html   
https://www.bilder-upload.eu/bild-420a69-1599500291.jpg.html   
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaAccumulator on September 07, 2020, 02:22:33 PM
Pic looks not bad, I don't see any major eye appeal issue on panda's face. You got for a good price, NGC ms67 is worth $3k plus.
I would keep it. I am anxious to see other's opinion.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: wittu on September 07, 2020, 03:19:21 PM
I am anxious to see other's opinion.

Me too :)
Thank you!!! Very very appreciated  N48

It is much easier to have flawless coins  :thumbup:

edit:
i still have no functions of giving karma   :confused1: :thumbdown:
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: wittu on September 07, 2020, 05:01:35 PM
...but i like clear statements/opinions N39 N31

And i know, nothing is 100% and it finally is my decision and so on.  N67  ;)     i will survive, even mistakes and wrong decisions included  :thumbup: .... no one is responsible but me  N66

So...come on... PLEASE give it a shot and tell me your thinking  N50

 N48
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaCollector on September 07, 2020, 05:20:51 PM
...but i like clear statements/opinions N39 N31

And i know, nothing is 100% and it finally is my decision and so on.  N67  ;)     i will survive, even mistakes and wrong decisions included  :thumbup: .... no one is responsible but me  N66

So...come on... PLEASE give it a shot and tell me your thinking  N50

 N48

A coin with a real scratch may very well grade 66, or 65. Moreover, it was stored without a capsule. When the dirt is removed it may reveal rub, or wear, that places the grade lower than that, even below 60. Proceed at your own risk.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
NGC Consultant
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the 2020 Valentine Panda
www.pandacollector.com

Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: wittu on September 07, 2020, 05:24:47 PM
Thank you Peter!

Appreciating more different views. I think this is an interesting discussion, cause this is often a question we have to answer and decision we have to take...

 N48
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: wittu on September 09, 2020, 12:37:39 PM
Hello,

thank you 2 for your opinion.

I think, i will send it back.  :closedeyes:
It`s easier to collect coins in good condition.

Many greetings,
wittu  N48
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on March 25, 2021, 02:08:02 PM
Inspired by @Storm, a couple of new pandas have entered my garden.  It is wonderful to own such rare coins.  Although I didn't want pandas when I started collecting MCC, I think they are very beautiful now. N66
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Birdman on March 25, 2021, 06:56:33 PM
Inspired by @Storm, a couple of new pandas have entered my garden.  It is wonderful to own such rare coins.  Although I didn't want pandas when I started collecting MCC, I think they are very beautiful now. N66

Nice  :thumbup1:.  Did you find those three in Germany?
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Pandora on March 25, 2021, 10:37:22 PM
Wonderful coins !👍
Title: Re: Angebot und Nachfrage von Gold-Panda-Münzen
Post by: rosab2000 on March 26, 2021, 12:45:36 AM
Hello, thank you  N66! Yes, they are beautiful coins.  I am inclined to buy a few more. The coins are all from Germany . But also here it can be observed that the material has become very rare ! Two years ago, other collectors said: Wait until the price of gold rises then expensive Chinese come onto the "market" again. Now the price of gold is much higher, but the supply is getting less and less. Even in Germany you can only be lucky if an old one. Collector something dissolves . Or they will enjoy the sale. Otherwise there is not much to find here unfortunately.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on March 26, 2021, 10:50:37 AM
What's the better date in the 1997 pandas?  large or small date? :confused1:
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Birdman on March 26, 2021, 11:01:46 AM
One way to get insights into that question is to look at the NGC population data, which suggests that 1997 LD and SD show up in fairly similar numbers.  In fact, I think there are few other date examples where the varieties are so similar in prevalence.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaAccumulator on March 26, 2021, 11:15:31 AM
Beautiful coins, rosab2000. For 97 half, LD and SD are equally rare. For 96 half, LD is rarer than SD, and the same pattern seems to be true for 94, 95 and 98 halves.

Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on March 26, 2021, 11:16:51 AM
 Hello Mr. birdman, thanks for linking to ngc.  I always can't believe this data.  It means that only a few hundred are always graded.  See also 1996. That confuses me.  Several thousand are mentioned in the official mcc catalog.  Also in Peter Anthony's book (which I still have to buy but unfortunately can't find) there are many pandas in the edition.  then why are there so few graded? :confused1:
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on March 26, 2021, 11:20:03 AM
Hello Mr. Panda Accumulator, that's a great statement.  I received 1/2 3x in large date in 1996.  However, never seen a small date here.  But I'll have to buy Peter's book to understand it better.  So far, my fellow collectors have helped me with this.  Although I have to say that it will be less here in Germany.  Everyone just wants standard gold or stocks or bitcoins :blink:
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on March 26, 2021, 11:27:20 AM
What a shame I just looked.  Unfortunately, from 1994 I don't have the rare ones as they say.  It's just the small date.  I'll keep an eye out for the large date! N13



I read through Mr. @ Storm's article every now and then and I would love to read more articles like this from such great collectors!  It's fun and encourages you to expand your own collection a little! N48
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Birdman on March 26, 2021, 11:38:47 AM
Hello Mr. birdman, thanks for linking to ngc.  I always can't believe this data.  It means that only a few hundred are always graded.  See also 1996. That confuses me.  Several thousand are mentioned in the official mcc catalog.  Also in Peter Anthony's book (which I still have to buy but unfortunately can't find) there are many pandas in the edition.  then why are there so few graded? :confused1:

Many of the gold pandas were melted, so they are gone for ever.  Some are in PCGS holders.  Many were never graded and went straight into master sets.  Others are probably sitting in OMP in safe deposit boxes from people that originally purchased them.    It costs $$ to grade, so not everyone does it.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on March 26, 2021, 01:51:54 PM
HOW do you get to the pcgs census?  Can someone help me ?  Do you think so many have been melted down?  Take the 1996 pandas.  There are no 500 graded at ngc.  But there are several thousand pieces.  I think there are very few omps left in the usa and china.  They are more likely to be found in Germany with the old collectors.  But there aren't many left.  Just a handful.  But they will certainly not have a hoard of 1000 coins.  It's strange that you only see a few pieces on the market.  They all seem to be in steady hands or there are no longer thousands of a subject but only a few hundreds.  Can you somehow find out how many master sets have already been created?  Or have they already been sold?  It would be interesting to know :001_smile:
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: dynamike51 on March 26, 2021, 02:00:37 PM

 .... But they will certainly not have a hoard of 1000 coins....


You have not seen wg's stash.   :w00t: N31 :lol:
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Birdman on March 26, 2021, 02:33:07 PM
HOW do you get to the pcgs census?  Can someone help me ? 

https://www.pcgs.com/pop/detail/50-yuan-1982-date/3793

Can you somehow find out how many master sets have already been created?  Or have they already been sold?  It would be interesting to know :001_smile:

The master set program started in 2011 to sell 30 gold panda sets from 1982-2011. From 2011 to present year, almost 10 years, with ups and downs, the total master sets sold, based on my information, I believe the number is between 400-450 sets with 2012 the peak year.

Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: tater on March 26, 2021, 04:45:25 PM
Very nice coins, I am jealous.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: pandamonium on March 26, 2021, 05:40:10 PM
HOW do you get to the pcgs census?  Can someone help me ?  Do you think so many have been melted down?  Take the 1996 pandas.  There are no 500 graded at ngc.  But there are several thousand pieces.  I think there are very few omps left in the usa and china.  They are more likely to be found in Germany with the old collectors.  But there aren't many left.  Just a handful.  But they will certainly not have a hoard of 1000 coins.  It's strange that you only see a few pieces on the market.  They all seem to be in steady hands or there are no longer thousands of a subject but only a few hundreds.  Can you somehow find out how many master sets have already been created?  Or have they already been sold?  It would be interesting to know :001_smile:





Outstanding gold pandas.   Your 94 1/2 oz is a rare proof w/ 854 actual mint.      The surviving pop has been discussed here several times but very hard to say how many and most experts think it is a very low number.    It was also stated that many PCGS were crossed over to NGC.     We may never know the surviving pop but you are probably right that it is a very low number.     Chinese coins/medals were melted and the tide turned about year roughly 2000 or so that i noticed.     Before that they were melted in large numbers.     The market is heating up, so high prices will bring more OMP out if there is a supply of them....
A dealer told me last yr that he sent in 1980's small proof gold pandas for melt and now the market is turning in their favor.    For example the 1987P 1/20 i mentioned on another topic, NGC has about 400 total graded pop including varieties.    10,000 is what could be the actual mint as stated here.    Even if NGC had 2,000 total graded pop that would not be enough to meet upcoming market demand as there will be more than that number of collectors worldwide....
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on March 27, 2021, 04:22:43 AM
Thanks @ Birdman for the links! 

You can see that Pcgs still graded the first years a lot, but then everyone switched to ngc.  From the 1990s there were hardly any pcgs in the census.  Thanks for pointing out the master sets.  I really had already overread it in my mind.  450 sentences that is a house number and means that many have been withdrawn from the market.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on March 27, 2021, 04:28:50 AM
@dynamike I think Wg has more lunars than old pandas.  According to my information from my contacts in China, except for the first series, lunars are no longer in demand and are very popular.  It's a shame, actually.  I think Wg has already sold a lot here, but it's just a guess.  Maybe he can say his own assessment.  I understood what @Storm wanted to say so I guess.  If modern china coins attract then the pandas because of the Masterset story.  Other series are for hardcore collectors and they are only a small group.  When I offered my Goldset Discovery 1995 (3x69,2x70) nobody was interested in it.  Then I sold it to my Chinese.  In Germany everyone just wants to have coins near spot.  Nobody or very few are still interested in old pandas.  Nobody pays a premium of 3000 euros on a coin.  So it is really better to collect the gold pandas than other coins from the modern china coins that are still much less known.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on March 27, 2021, 04:33:19 AM
@Pandamonium thank you very much for your comments.  I always value and enjoy reading your articles.  Also to the panda sets and editions of the small coins.  I myself think the 1994 set is very nice and I was able to get it for a good price 2 years ago.  I will keep these coins as long as I don't have to sell them.  Do you think more coins have been melted down than as Peter Anthony said in his panda book?  I'm still wondering whether his estimates are too high.  You just don't see any coins any more.  Yesterday a 1/2 ounce Panda 1994 was put up for sale by künker.  It was not clear whether she had hairlines.  Even so, it was sold out this morning at a high price!  Madness.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on March 28, 2021, 01:55:34 AM
A collector colleague told me that years ago there was a panda exchange in China.  This had given the prices a huge boost.  But it was probably closed with the fund (which collected some rare modern china coins).  Does anyone have any information about why it was closed or whether it will reopen?  That should give the pandas a boost, right? N20
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaAccumulator on March 28, 2021, 02:46:54 AM
A collector colleague told me that years ago there was a panda exchange in China.  This had given the prices a huge boost.  But it was probably closed with the fund (which collected some rare modern china coins).  Does anyone have any information about why it was closed or whether it will reopen?  That should give the pandas a boost, right? N20

There were "on-line coins/stamps exchanges" platforms in China 5-6 years ago, as part of the "exchange", common date pandas were also included. The prices on many coins were skyrocketed due to market manipulation, and many inexperienced buyers/collectors lost money, the "exchanges" were eventually closed down by the Chinese government. 
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on March 28, 2021, 06:35:13 AM
Thanks for the information @ Pandaaccumulator.  How do you see the chances of this opening up again in China?  Or is there a possibility that a fund will be set up again by the government?  That would be a price driver.  Personally, I am waiting for the moment when more Chinese people have access to the western internet.  Imagine the collectors in China who currently only have the opportunity to buy from the country's internal auction platforms, for example, could buy on international eBay.  That should raise demand and prices, or don't you think so?
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: pandamonium on March 28, 2021, 08:38:02 AM
Patience, Chinese coins/medals will soon be discovered.    Looks like silver bullion will lead the way due to huge demand and common citizens wanting to remove the shorts that manipulate price.    Many, many Chinese on Wallstreetsilver so it will go viral in China too..

jsmineset     USA Watchdog  "Greatest time point in history coming April 2021"   by Bo Polyny of Gold2020forecast

The link to PCGS is almost shocking how few 1/2 gold pandas are graded....

Mises Institute  "Why Beijing wants a digital Yuan"
Survival Blog   "The great reset is exactly what they warned that Agenda 21 was all about-the reorganization of human society"
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: pandamonium on March 28, 2021, 09:11:12 AM
oops, forgot this...

NGC has 108 total pop for 94P 1/2      PF 70 - 6, PF 69 - 88,...   in case it is hard to see screenshot
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on March 28, 2021, 11:26:46 AM
The price for the 1/2 panda pf is very expensive!  But that's what I mean by the fact that the graded coins are very few when you look at the entire circulation.  In the official Mcc catalog or in the purple book by Mr.gee, numbers are estimated that could have survived.  But these estimates also seem very high to me.  For example, look here at the Taiwan Set gold.  There are said to be 1000 pieces of each coin.  I've seen it twice in Germany in the last 5 years.  How come  The others can't just lie in some vault for 10 years.  Or am I making a thinking mistake? :confused1:

Btw ... I gave up all of the china silver of the modern coins.  I think only gold coins are interesting here.  How do you see it?

Greetings  N48
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaAccumulator on March 28, 2021, 12:12:32 PM
Thanks for the information @ Pandaaccumulator.  How do you see the chances of this opening up again in China?  Or is there a possibility that a fund will be set up again by the government?  That would be a price driver.  Personally, I am waiting for the moment when more Chinese people have access to the western internet.  Imagine the collectors in China who currently only have the opportunity to buy from the country's internal auction platforms, for example, could buy on international eBay.  That should raise demand and prices, or don't you think so?

As far as I know, the "exchange" was started in 2011/2012, a platform similar to stock exchange, but instead of trading stocks, people traded coins/stamps on online. it got really out of control in 2016. They were ordered to close in early 2017 for "reorganization", nobody knows whether or when it could be reopened. In any event, this was not really the driving force for price spike on key date pandas or other rare MCC.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on March 28, 2021, 02:05:53 PM
Ok Pandaaccumulator, thank you for this information.  I always thought that this was one of the price drivers for the rise of some date.  So one can assume that the master sets is really the driving force behind the pandas.  If the gold price should climb new heights again, some pandas are likely to melt again and mastersets will become more popular again.  Let's hope the best.thanks
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaAccumulator on March 28, 2021, 02:45:11 PM
You were correct, rosab2000, the master-set demand has been the main driving force for panda prices over the past ten years. The master-set used to be bought up and given away as "gift", one of the ways of bribery to government officials. I would assume the prices on many of the key date gold pandas would have been much, much higher than today's level, if president Xi did not launch his anti-corruption campaign in late 2012.
Title: Re: Angebot und Nachfrage von Gold-Panda-Münzen
Post by: rosab2000 on March 29, 2021, 01:34:29 PM
 N40 thanks for this information . Greetings  N48
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaCollector on April 01, 2021, 04:51:53 PM
According to my information from my contacts in China, except for the first series, lunars are no longer in demand and are very popular.  It's a shame, actually... If modern china coins attract then the pandas because of the Masterset story.  Other series are for hardcore collectors and they are only a small group.  When I offered my Goldset Discovery 1995 (3x69,2x70) nobody was interested in it.  Then I sold it to my Chinese.  In Germany everyone just wants to have coins near spot.  Nobody or very few are still interested in old pandas.  Nobody pays a premium of 3000 euros on a coin.  So it is really better to collect the gold pandas than other coins from the modern china coins that are still much less known.

Years before, "The Gold & Silver Panda Buyer's Guide," was first released in 2010, I received comments — both online and in coin shops — that I was wasting my time collecting Panda coins. The view back then was that because Pandas were made for export they would never find a market in China, the coins weren't Chinese enough. I vividly remember this and it happened many times. Lunar coins were hot, though, as were other series. All I can say is that if you want to buy coins "cheap" you should buy good quality when it is out of fashion and be patient. By the way, the BU 1995 50 Yuan gold Panda sold for around $300 in those days — if you could find one.

As Nick Brown always said, "COLLECT - INVEST - HAVE FUN.............."


Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and` More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the Valentine Panda
PCGS Consultant
www.pandacollector.com
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: pandamonium on April 01, 2021, 06:16:13 PM
This is and has been a gold forum for the most part.   I agree to buy when "out of fashion and be patient".    Again, I own mostly coins but they have been researched and posted about.    Most of my posts may be strange to many but they make sense to me as many medals are unknown and unresearched but that too is changing.     Never underestimate this market, it changes as it matures.    There are many medal collectors here too probably due to low price, low mintage, etc...   
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on September 09, 2021, 12:44:38 PM
Some new pieces were added to the collection today.  If nobody wants pandas then I buy pandas 🐼 N66
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Jens on September 09, 2021, 02:37:50 PM
All I can say is that if you want to buy coins "cheap" you should buy good quality when it is out of fashion and be patient
Truer words were never spoken, that's what i try to do, although sometimes i just must have certain coins at once and throw all my good intentions overboard...
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on October 05, 2021, 01:18:15 PM
I have a question for the panda collectors.  Are there only master sets of gold pandas in China or also sets with 1oz gold pandas?  If so, does one of them have a photo?  I've never seen a set like this before, but it might not be as expensive as a full masters set.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: pandamonium on October 05, 2021, 06:27:34 PM
This is the only set on ebay 1982 to 2021 69 & 70 1/10 gold pandas  $18,000 asking   ebay 154637098055...

I have only seen master sets w/ all sizes when the market is down.  Have not seen a 1 oz master set, usually small sizes or all sizes...
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on October 05, 2021, 11:43:20 PM
It is hard to sell items above $10,000 on ebay.  Ebay is best for items below $2500.  Everything else is sold privately. 
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on October 05, 2021, 11:58:49 PM
oh ok, so there is no such thing as a 1oz gold complete set.  I thought it might be sold in stages.  I assume that there are only small sets because of the cost.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on October 06, 2021, 12:00:23 AM
@Keydate das stimmt. Obwohl einige seltene münzen bei ebay auch schon 4000 Euro gesehen haben oder alte dollar Münzen über 10.000 Dollar. Bei solchen Münzen würde ich wahrscheinlich nur noch auktionshäuser bevorzugen obwohl diese höhere Gebühren haben wie ebay.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaCollector on October 06, 2021, 03:04:59 PM
oh ok, so there is no such thing as a 1oz gold complete set.  I thought it might be sold in stages.  I assume that there are only small sets because of the cost.

There are many people who collect and own complete sets of 1 oz. gold Pandas. They have even been sold as complete sets. Here is an old Panda America offer:

(http://www.pandacollector.com/pandaamerica-set.jpg)

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and` More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the Valentine Panda
PCGS Consultant
www.pandacollector.com
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on October 06, 2021, 11:45:59 PM
Hello Peter, thanks for the information.  It is probably easier for the collector who starts buying 1oz pandas when they have the cash.  These are still common and in terms of price, most of them are close to the gold price or a two hundred euros above it.  I try to get the 1 oz full myself.  A couple of 80s are still missing.  1984 is really hard to find, I have to say.  But in time something will come.  I've never seen a set like this here in Germany.  What I do not understand is why no masterset is collected in standard ms69 or ms 70 but only in capsules.  This is probably due to the space required.  Is there a box for ngc slaps mastersets?
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: pandamonium on October 07, 2021, 08:46:15 AM
Out of curiosity i checked ebay for 1984 1 oz, prices are not cheap.  No OMP.  69, (2) 68, 67 & 66

MS 69  about $4,000   ebay 193898372758

MS 68 $3,850     ebay 363059811985

   "     $4,750      ebay 334142596005

probably cheaper in Germany...
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on October 08, 2021, 12:52:52 PM
Yes, that's right.  It is difficult to find some vintages.  The 95 is also the most expensive at the 1oz or the 82 in 68.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on October 14, 2021, 07:04:32 AM
I have just subscribed to pricepedia again.  My last one was from the beginning of 2020. It's amazing how panda prices in gold have increased! :w00t:
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: pandamonium on October 14, 2021, 09:00:43 AM
Prices have gone up slowly and steady.  I see more sales on ebay of rare/semi rare almost daily that are on my watch list.   Word out of China is that they are buying bullion and numismatics.   As we all know the world is buying bullion and numismatics so it is a matter of time before we see bigger price increases as supply is limited.....
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on October 14, 2021, 09:42:19 AM
Are you seeing more and more rare coins and semi-coins to buy on ebay?  I don't see anything that's on offer here anymore N20
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Shenzhen on October 14, 2021, 10:19:28 AM
I have just subscribed to pricepedia again.  My last one was from the beginning of 2020. It's amazing how panda prices in gold have increased! :w00t:

Pricepedia contains only the prices for pandas or other MCC as well?
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Mirkkanen on October 14, 2021, 11:01:23 AM
I have some gold pandas I can offer if people are interested.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on October 14, 2021, 12:10:43 PM
There are 2 separate PDF files.  One contains everything that has to do with pandas and the other contains all the other modern china coins from 1979 onwards.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Unsustainable on October 26, 2021, 03:31:23 PM
I have a question for the panda collectors.  Are there only master sets of gold pandas in China or also sets with 1oz gold pandas?

All I can say is that if you want to buy coins "cheap" you should buy good quality when it is out of fashion and be patient.

The link to PCGS is almost shocking how few 1/2 gold pandas are graded....

Everything else is sold privately.

Hello.  I started accumulating silver and gold back in 2008. The local shop had Pandas and my daughter thought they were "cute" so I bought a few silvers, than a couple 1 oz golds for stack variety. Back then, NOBODY in their right mind bought Pandas here so they were (at the time) plentiful and relatively inexpensive (I expect ups n downs). The PNG member shop keeper, seeing I/we had an interest in Pandas asked if I was interested in complete partial date set of 1/2 oz gold Pandas, dated first one until the early 2000's (including all the key 90's dates). All OMP; I did a bit of research and thought it'd be an interesting place to park $ from Dad's (RIP) cashed-in huge stack of max'd out US Savings Bonds for the LONG TERM. Yes, this was a private sale and I just recently FINISHED adding the remained of dates to present. PCGS Certified? - I had a question thread here and, when all was said and done I chose to keep/maintain the collection in OMP (with 3 exceptions of most recent dates...all I could find to complete dates). It's been a blast collecting these coins and I'm using the numismatic knowledge toward further American key collecting. The irony is that I just stumbled upon these by establishing a buying relationship with my PNG-member LCS and they taught me everything I know re the value of silver and gold wealth and watching global trends. Signed - The Accidental Panda Collector
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on November 10, 2021, 12:33:46 PM
Gold is making good progress today!  Pandas are becoming less and less popular.  Maybe that means pandas will go up a bit soon :) we'll see. :w00t:
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: 1003 on November 10, 2021, 01:02:40 PM
Gold is making good progress today!  Pandas are becoming less and less popular.  Maybe that means pandas will go up a bit soon :) we'll see. :w00t:
Just curious, why something becoming less popular would go up in price soon?
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on November 10, 2021, 01:10:14 PM
Why do you think the pandas are becoming less popular?  I see fewer and fewer pandas for sale on the market.  That shows me that nobody wants to sell and everyone keeps.  This in combination with a rising gold price and the real estate crisis in China and the crypto ban for the Chinese could drive the pandas up a notch in price. N20
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: 1003 on November 10, 2021, 02:14:01 PM
Why do you think the pandas are becoming less popular?  I see fewer and fewer pandas for sale on the market.  That shows me that nobody wants to sell and everyone keeps.  This in combination with a rising gold price and the real estate crisis in China and the crypto ban for the Chinese could drive the pandas up a notch in price. N20
You said "Pandas are becoming less and less popular" in your reply #121
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeepOnTrying! on November 11, 2021, 12:47:44 AM
You said "Pandas are becoming less and less popular" in your reply #121

This is an international forum and language structure varies.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on November 11, 2021, 01:47:15 AM
Yes, that's probably because of the Google Translate I use to write here.  It shouldn't make the sense that pandas are not wanted, rather the opposite is what I meant. N25
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on November 11, 2021, 11:00:19 PM
What a difference a week makes.  Last Saturday I was at the lowest inventory in over a decade, despite buying from several dealers at the St Charles show.  Then Monday arrived and gold blasted through $1800 and the sellers suddenly came out, 3oz here, 6oz there, 2oz here and then Tuesday 51oz (pic of better omp coins), which included several coins I haven't bought in while, then Wednesday 3 more deals for 4oz, and finally today two deals for 6oz.  I logged 1800 miles in the last 8 days and bought several months of inventory.  I sold a bunch of uranium shares today just in case gold keeps going up and the sellers keep hitting the coin shops.  This could be the push we need to get gold to break $2050.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on November 12, 2021, 12:00:52 AM
wow, very good exploits also some rarities!  Last year I had collected a lot in the hope of getting a masterset full.  But it is difficult, there are almost no more offers here in Germany.  why did you sell your uranium shares?  I'm also heavily invested and they go higher every day.  I think it makes more sense to stay in uran than in pandas unless you can get them cheap.  Or do you expect the prices to double here as well?  Greetings from Germany
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on November 12, 2021, 02:26:19 AM
Uranium stocks are up 3x-7x in the last year, have to take some off the table.  Ironically all the gold pandas I own are really thanks to 2004-2007 bull market, I sold in 2007 and started buying Chinese coins, at first my buys were poor, like 1987 proof sets, but then I met the right investors and dealers that got me amazing coins before the market took off.  Normally I don’t buy $30k/oz coins like 1995 1/2, but with uranium money I can let it ride at those crazy prices.  I hope to add to my uranium portfolios at the next correction, there will be one.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on November 12, 2021, 03:17:52 AM
In a German forum with share professionals it is said that uranium has to rise 8x to be at the same level as oil and gas.  I think there is a lot of potential here.  I will also stop at a setter.  But do you think that you will make a lot more profit with pandas in the near future?  You would have to double or triple to keep up with the stocks.  (at least some chosen ones.)
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on November 12, 2021, 04:00:15 AM
You don't know what will perform so you own a bit of everything you believe in.  I have gold mining shares that are flat for the last 12 months.  I do believe gold gets to $3000 and Uranium will get $150/lb in this cycle, the question is how long will it take.  When things get parabolic it can't hurt to sell and buy back when things are more stable even if it means buying at a higher level.  I sold a lot of 2002 1/2 on the way up from $3000-$4900, now I get to buy them back at below the high water mark, but well above the initial selling price.   Also, taxes are going up in the US, better to pay up this year before they go up next year. That could be another reason why more material is coming out right now.  I sold a lot in October and early November because I wanted to book gains this year. 
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on November 12, 2021, 04:44:36 AM
ok, thanks for your hints!  I really enjoy reading your articles and your market assessments.  That one should split that is clear.  I do that too.  I also have various dollars, pandas, and some rare golden modern china coins alongside various stocks now.  I have to say what just happened in uranium is madness so fast no modern china coin develops.  Except very rare or dragon dollars or proof circulation yuan some.  I think there is really little material on the market at the moment and what is there is stable in the hands of collectors.  I had also sold 3x 02 1/2 pandas 3/4 year ago.  Today you have to say six months later they would have been worth a few hundred euros / dollars more.  But uranium and also silver mines like endeavor have been performing incredibly well here in the last few weeks.  Unfortunately, I'm not a type of trading.  That's why I have pandas gold in my portfolio as a hedge.  :) Thank you for your assessment.  Perhaps some who read it can deduce something. N48
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Birdman on November 12, 2021, 07:11:21 AM
What a difference a week makes.  Last Saturday I was at the lowest inventory in over a decade, despite buying from several dealers at the St Charles show.  Then Monday arrived and gold blasted through $1800 and the sellers suddenly came out, 3oz here, 6oz there, 2oz here and then Tuesday 51oz (pic of better omp coins), which included several coins I haven't bought in while, then Wednesday 3 more deals for 4oz, and finally today two deals for 6oz.  I logged 1800 miles in the last 8 days and bought several months of inventory.  I sold a bunch of uranium shares today just in case gold keeps going up and the sellers keep hitting the coin shops.  This could be the push we need to get gold to break $2050.

That is a lovely photo.  Congratulations on your active hunting success.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: pandamonium on November 12, 2021, 07:53:07 AM
wow, very good exploits also some rarities!  Last year I had collected a lot in the hope of getting a masterset full.  But it is difficult, there are almost no more offers here in Germany.  why did you sell your uranium shares?  I'm also heavily invested and they go higher every day.  I think it makes more sense to stay in uran than in pandas unless you can get them cheap.  Or do you expect the prices to double here as well?  Greetings from Germany




Germany has a past history of many MCC for sale.  Can you give more detailed information on the German Chinese coin market?....
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: rosab2000 on November 12, 2021, 01:08:24 PM
Hello pandamonium, I can only pass on my observations as a collector.  It has become very difficult to deal with the china coins.  By that I mean rare gold modern china coins.  Some collectors were still liquidating their collections.  But since ebay has changed its conditions at the expense of the seller, you can see almost nothing on ebay.  Really nothing.  Some coins of poor quality turn up here and there at completely overpriced prices.  Where you can still get something is at international auctions, but the prices have become super expensive.  I don't really know either.  It seems that all the trembling hands have now given up.  It is only from inheritance that a few coins appear from time to time.  My Chinese buyers ask me every two weeks if I have something for them.  Both have withdrawn from ebay because there is only poor quality if there is something.  On the other hand, simple coins such as 5 yuan's silver are, as always, common.  I'm only talking about gold coins.  I have listed all silver china coins from modern china.  The prices are too high and they have fallen very low. I think only gold coins count.  Of course, I don't mean old dollars, exchange rate coin sets or 1yuan proof - these are all very expensive and in demand as before.  I'm only talking about modern china coins from 1979 onwards.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: baron88 on November 12, 2021, 03:38:40 PM
What a difference a week makes.  Last Saturday I was at the lowest inventory in over a decade, despite buying from several dealers at the St Charles show.  Then Monday arrived and gold blasted through $1800 and the sellers suddenly came out, 3oz here, 6oz there, 2oz here and then Tuesday 51oz (pic of better omp coins), which included several coins I haven't bought in while, then Wednesday 3 more deals for 4oz, and finally today two deals for 6oz.  I logged 1800 miles in the last 8 days and bought several months of inventory.  I sold a bunch of uranium shares today just in case gold keeps going up and the sellers keep hitting the coin shops.  This could be the push we need to get gold to break $2050.

From the investment perspective, those sellers must be betting on gold price not being able to stay above $1,800.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: pandamonium on November 12, 2021, 10:17:00 PM
Rosab;  For many years Germany had a good supply of MCC gold and silver.  Sounds like supply is thin and in strong hands.  The US ebay still has a decent supply of MCC gold & silver including rare.  A big buyer could change that quickly.  Silver MCC seems to be undervalued and I like silver MCC too. 
See photo, I picked up this 1997 S5Y for about $35 hard cap on US ebay.  Mr Ge's book 4,500 mintage.  Great price for fairly low mintage, cannot find another for that amount.
Supply of bullion world wide has huge demand and low supply.  Royal Mint in GB announced they are recycling smart phones for the PM in them.  Why would one of the world's top 6 mints turn to tiny amounts of PM in a smart phone?  Royal Mint has gone thru tons of gold/silver every year for many years.  Maybe they see a large shortage ahead as many authors warn us.
Probably best to hold MCC for now, I don't see prices going down.  Thanks for the info.....
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeepOnTrying! on November 20, 2021, 11:24:23 AM
Hello Peter, thanks for the information.  It is probably easier for the collector who starts buying 1oz pandas when they have the cash.  These are still common and in terms of price, most of them are close to the gold price or a two hundred euros above it.  I try to get the 1 oz full myself.  A couple of 80s are still missing.  1984 is really hard to find, I have to say.  But in time something will come.  I've never seen a set like this here in Germany.  What I do not understand is why no masterset is collected in standard ms69 or ms 70 but only in capsules.  This is probably due to the space required.  Is there a box for ngc slaps mastersets?

Hi, though the popular "Master Set" program in China uses coins without capsules, I believe that individual collectors (not necessarily only in China) who go for high grade coins would keep them in capsules or even the original OMP. Interestingly, the China based Master Set program can use lower grade coins (MS68 and ?67). My concern is that the handling/housing of those coins degrades their quality, hence decreasing further the available pool of high grade (69/70) coins if used in such master sets. I have often wondered what confers value on these (China-based) master sets, numismatic or just the weight in gold, or that you have the current complete series of gold Panda coins? I haven't heard of or seen a display system for NGC/PCGS slabs, as you enquired. Perhaps collectors store them in bank safe deposit boxes; housing them at home could attract the bad type of attention! Best wishes.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeepOnTrying! on November 20, 2021, 11:32:50 AM
What a difference a week makes.  Last Saturday I was at the lowest inventory in over a decade, despite buying from several dealers at the St Charles show.  Then Monday arrived and gold blasted through $1800 and the sellers suddenly came out, 3oz here, 6oz there, 2oz here and then Tuesday 51oz (pic of better omp coins), which included several coins I haven't bought in while, then Wednesday 3 more deals for 4oz, and finally today two deals for 6oz.  I logged 1800 miles in the last 8 days and bought several months of inventory.  I sold a bunch of uranium shares today just in case gold keeps going up and the sellers keep hitting the coin shops.  This could be the push we need to get gold to break $2050.

These coins look remarkably clear despite being in OMP all these years. Do you usually have to conserve them before slabbing or do you go straight to slabbing? Thanks for response.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on November 20, 2021, 08:39:06 PM
Some coins look fine as is, others need conservation.  It often depends on where the coins were stored.  Dry and cool place, coins are fine.  Humid and hot, you will have discoloration and PVC residue on the coins.

It is surprising how well coins have survived in omp.  With the exception of 1982-1984 1oz, most coins grade MS69 around 70% of the time.  I am tempted to keep coins in omp, but then a few weeks go by and I am like submit everything. 

Supply is slowly trickling out, this week was the Baltimore show and despite not going I was still able to buy 11 oz of gold pandas, with many semi-key and key dates.  With Baltimore being the last show of the year, I think we are done with the new supply.   
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: pandamonium on November 21, 2021, 09:03:45 AM
"done with the new supply".

Do you mean for this year or overall market due to low supply and increased demand/increased gold/silver price? 
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeyDate1/2ozPandas on November 21, 2021, 04:28:35 PM
I think selling is done for the year.  Everyone is bracing for a tough shipping period starting in December, so many decided to empty their safes ahead of that and close out their books.  I did the same thing in October and early November, so I could take off until mid January.

All of the above is subject to change if gold prices spike up, sellers will come out and take advantage, they always do.  The sellers are not people that read this forum or follow the market closely, they are instead long-term holders or heirs that have stuff locked up in a safe for decades and now suddenly something clicks and they want to sell.  November-January is good time to buy because most mainland dealers have their money tied up in new issues and can't buy much, once February rolls around and all those proceeds from new issues are pilling up then they come back into the market and buy.  Even a small change in demand can take coins up 10-30% in a single transaction.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: baron88 on November 21, 2021, 08:53:54 PM
I think selling is done for the year.  Everyone is bracing for a tough shipping period starting in December, so many decided to empty their safes ahead of that and close out their books.  I did the same thing in October and early November, so I could take off until mid January.

All of the above is subject to change if gold prices spike up, sellers will come out and take advantage, they always do.  The sellers are not people that read this forum or follow the market closely, they are instead long-term holders or heirs that have stuff locked up in a safe for decades and now suddenly something clicks and they want to sell.  November-January is good time to buy because most mainland dealers have their money tied up in new issues and can't buy much, once February rolls around and all those proceeds from new issues are pilling up then they come back into the market and buy.  Even a small change in demand can take coins up 10-30% in a single transaction.

Good information. Thank you!
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: pandamonium on November 26, 2021, 08:22:52 AM
Hello pandamonium, I can only pass on my observations as a collector.  It has become very difficult to deal with the china coins.  By that I mean rare gold modern china coins.  Some collectors were still liquidating their collections.  But since ebay has changed its conditions at the expense of the seller, you can see almost nothing on ebay.  Really nothing.  Some coins of poor quality turn up here and there at completely overpriced prices.  Where you can still get something is at international auctions, but the prices have become super expensive.  I don't really know either.  It seems that all the trembling hands have now given up.  It is only from inheritance that a few coins appear from time to time.  My Chinese buyers ask me every two weeks if I have something for them.  Both have withdrawn from ebay because there is only poor quality if there is something.  On the other hand, simple coins such as 5 yuan's silver are, as always, common.  I'm only talking about gold coins.  I have listed all silver china coins from modern china.  The prices are too high and they have fallen very low. I think only gold coins count.  Of course, I don't mean old dollars, exchange rate coin sets or 1yuan proof - these are all very expensive and in demand as before.  I'm only talking about modern china coins from 1979 onwards.






I read articles and listen to bullion experts.   The common theme is that the German people are buying gold/silver w/ crazy demand.   The Geman's understand a collapsed currency and want to protect themselves.   Most people world wide now understand that China owns the gold and the planned increase of US debt will soon greatly harm the USD.    Reddit Wall Street Silver has encouraged the world to buy bullion.   However, the % of people that do not own bullion is huge in comparison to those that do own it.   Here in the US I have educated others for years but most are brain dead and cannot see the value of silver or gold.   Gold has swung back up in price today.   The shortage of Chinese and bullion will happen but i hope we still have a lot more time....
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaCollector on November 26, 2021, 10:02:27 AM
From the investment perspective, those sellers must be betting on gold price not being able to stay above $1,800.

I think this is exactly correct and the sellers will regret it later.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and` More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the Valentine Panda
PCGS Consultant
www.pandacollector.com
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: bonke on November 26, 2021, 02:41:57 PM
Are you advising us to buy modern Chinese gold pandas / coins at this time or are you advising us to keep the modern Chinese gold pandas which we already own?  I hesitate to buy gold pandas when the gold spot price is $1800.  Is my hesitancy to buy at these prices ($1800 plus an appropriate markup for profit) a mistake?  Your opinion (and advice) will be most appreciated.

Mark Bonke
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: panda on November 26, 2021, 02:55:02 PM
學中文才有錢途
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: Mirkkanen on November 27, 2021, 11:28:20 AM
Nobody is biting at my gold pandas in the Buy/Sell forum. Why is that? My prices are under Pricepedia's guidance numbers. Panda market is weak.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeepOnTrying! on November 27, 2021, 03:36:06 PM
學中文才有錢途

Google translate: Learning Chinese is the only way to make money! (Lost in translation?)
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: panda on November 27, 2021, 07:30:13 PM
Google translate: Learning Chinese is the only way to make money! (Lost in translation?)

Compares to buy/sell/flip Chinese coins, learn Chinese to do business with China make more money,,,
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeepOnTrying! on November 27, 2021, 08:57:53 PM
Are you advising us to buy modern Chinese gold pandas / coins at this time or are you advising us to keep the modern Chinese gold pandas which we already own?  I hesitate to buy gold pandas when the gold spot price is $1800.  Is my hesitancy to buy at these prices ($1800 plus an appropriate markup for profit) a mistake?  Your opinion (and advice) will be most appreciated.

Mark Bonke

@Bonke, I can’t be presumptuous as to teach you anything about buying and selling precious metals. Perhaps your question is rhetorical but I have been looking for the same answers in recent months to understand some of the things I hear here. I still have a ways to go to find the correct answer.

I fall back to science for help: The long term gold spot curve shows what may be trends (but price history may not be predictive of the future—warning!). There are two well-defined major peaks so far: $1,833.76 on August 29, 2011 and $2,025.32 on August 3, 2020. (See graph abstracted from apmexDOTcom). It’s not the peaks that I am really interested in since I would be most likely somewhere inaccessible, working, when such happens again.

Attached is a Longterm Gold spot price graph I abstracted from Apmex.
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeepOnTrying! on November 27, 2021, 09:01:48 PM
@Bonke, I can’t be presumptuous as to teach you anything about buying and selling precious metals. Perhaps your question is rhetorical but I have been looking for the same answers in recent months to understand some of the things I hear here. I still have a ways to go to find the correct answer.

I fall back to science for help: The long term gold spot curve shows what may be trends (but price history may not be predictive of the future—warning!). There are two well-defined major peaks so far: $1,833.76 on August 29, 2011 and $2,025.32 on August 3, 2020. (See graph abstracted from apmexDOTcom). It’s not the peaks that I am really interested in since I would be most likely somewhere inaccessible when such happens.

Attached is a Longterm Gold spot price graph I abstracted from Apmex.

It is what happens after that peak that I find more interesting. On two occasions we have observed a saber-tooth pattern of mini-peaks occurring for sometime while trending downwards. Then there was a downturn in the market after that of 2011. So far, the 2020 spike is showing the same pattern, more like your aftershocks in California!

Will there be a downturn in the market afterwards? That is the question!

It looks like whatever boosts the spot price to a major spike loses steam afterwards. I however, can't pretend to be sure of this.

Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: KeepOnTrying! on November 27, 2021, 09:06:51 PM
What should a Panda collector do?

I don’t know; it’s been a bit confusing because of extraneous factors; the trade war between the US and China, and knock on effects, for example.

The 2020 gold set are few and far between on eBay. I adopted the wait and see attitude that is supposed to characterize the astute collector (Ha!). But I can’t make up my set now and I won’t accept the whale price being posited on eBay!

The 2021 set was carried by MCM for most of the year and later on by Fidelity. Apmex and Pandausa have not been strong players in recent years. So there is a virtual monopoly. I justified my purchase because I used gains from the stock market. But the US buyer has become uncompetitive on the world stage. The question I ask myself is how much longer I will remain a new issue Panda collector if this persists.

2022 Panda coins are now being pre-sold on eBay by MCM. I am grateful that they were at least able to bring the coins to the US market. Our man in China just joined in with a higher price point. I am buying for 2022 @$1800 spot, which was your question in a way. Does it make sense? No, but I’ll hang on for a year or two after which I’ll decide.

How about buying older issue coins, some may ask, at the same spot price of $1800? Is that a wiser move? I don’t have an answer. Yes, there is an apparent paucity of the coins in the market. Does that mean that the coins are depleted in the USA and Europe? The answer is not straightforward because there is quite a lot of mystery surrounding Panda coins; that is the thrill as well as a source of heebie jeebies. I am thinking that I may have become priced out of the market for our elite coins.

Much respect @Bonke. I feel privileged that you are asking about what has been a pain for me!
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: PandaCollector on November 28, 2021, 02:06:44 AM
Mark,

The ongoing suppression/manipulation of interest rates and certain markets has distorted the global economy to the extent that it's hard to imagine what the "true" price levels for many things should be — including coins. Since I doubt that this situation can continue forever it's my view that accumulating tangible things of value, panda coins for instance, is a good idea. To that, I add that an understanding of the word "malinvestment" may be helpful. However, I offer no advice.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the Valentine Panda
PCGS Consultant
www.pandacollector.com

Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: pandamonium on November 28, 2021, 08:36:10 AM
Read articles about supply and demand.   Buy and hold....
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: bonke on November 29, 2021, 10:08:50 AM
Keep On Trying

Thank you for sharing your thoughts and the historic gold bullion charts. 

I remember the price of gold bullion was very low at the turn of the century and the price has climbed slowly over the past 20 years.  Your charts show the climb has been "messy" and filled with danger and opportunity for the investor and collector. 

I still own many modern Chinese gold coins which were purchased in 2011 for very, very high prices.  I have learned to live with these financial mistakes, hoping for a future where I may sell these coins and recover my initial investment.

You are a very astute collector.  I have read your comments on this coin forum with care, learning to be more thoughtful and more careful as I attempt to expand my collection.  You have patience, a very important personality trait, as you pursue your "hobby".  I am envious of this patience.

The world is fraught with danger, whether it be political, economic, medical or environmental.  Xi Jin Ping is consolidating political power, giving the CCP a strong presence/control in most PRC "private" businesses, and persistently expanding the PRC's economic and military presence in Asia and beyond.  Joe Biden struggles as he attempts to meet the needs of the Progressive and Centrist portions of the Democratic Party.  He appears to be unprepared for international economic or military conflict.  Economically, the world is unstable with zero or near zero interest rates, unlimited governmental expansion of the money supply and spiraling inflation.  Medically, the new Omicron variant is spreading from southern Africa to "everywhere."  My spouse and I were in Munchen, Germany, earlier this month.  The average citizen is being very careful, wearing masks and socially distancing.  The German government has strict rules on masks, vaccines, quarantines and testing.  Still, there were record levels of new cases and a high daily death rate from the corona virus.  Environmentally, people and governments are pushing for electric vehicles while our cities look like Christmas trees each night (with hundreds of thousands of lights shining brightly into the sky) and we are unable to practice basic energy conservation measures.  If all of this is not enough, the "smash and grab" anarchists have arrived in our cities.

Without regard to the challenges faced in today's complicated world, I am pleased to be a collector and I am pleased to be a collector of Chinese coins, medals, currency and stamps.  I will watch for opportunities to expand my collection.  If future opportunities are not presented, I will enjoy the items which I have been permitted to accumulate over time.

Mark Bonke
Title: Re: supply and demand of gold panda coins
Post by: bonke on December 01, 2021, 08:27:02 AM
Peter

I had to look for the definition of "malinvestment" in my dictionary.  My old 4" thick Random House dictionary did not recognize this word and I had to look on the internet for information.

Last week, I contacted one of the US coin dealers who specializes in modern Chinese gold pandas to determine availability of 1oz gold pandas in NGC 69 holders (1982-2005).  Surprisingly, many coins are available for purchase, certainly more coins than I can afford.  I wonder what the true supply would be in the USA if the hoarders / accumulators / coin dealers / investors decided to sell.  We will know when the price of gold spikes in the future.

Mark Bonke