Topic: 2016 Personal Market Reflection: Panda Halves

[Panda Halves]

I was fortunate enough to choose to collect 1/2 ounce panda coins a while ago and my only regret on today's date is not owning more of them.
As the market for graded Chinese coins continues to improve from it's recent slump I thought I'd take pause to illustrate some interesting new market statistics.
As NGC is currently the preeminent grading company for Chinese coins let us start with the most recent census on 25JUL16: https://www.ngccoin.com/census/
The homepage will greet you with a list of 10 countries organized by "most graded."

It comes as no surprise that leading the way is the United States with: 24,276,343 coins graded.

In second place we have China: 1,656,016 coins graded

On the surface this 7% of the US figure seems like a meager number.... but not so when you look at the total of "World Coins" graded to date.
South Africa: 392,859
Australia: 383,239
Canada: 324,331
Great Britain: 192,231
Russia: 128,641
Mexico: 89,021
Poland: 67,718
Germany: 59,431
What is significant is that if we add all the numbers of graded coins from the 3rd through 10th most commonly graded country, as of today there are still 18,545 more Chinese coins graded by NGC to date.
This is approximately the total number of G200Y (2001-2016 pandas graded to date): 18,938
What's interesting about that number is that 80% of the 2001-2016 graded G200Y pandas are 2016 pandas with a number of 15,106
Market speculation aside, these numbers are interesting to consider.
Graded NGC Chinese coins are eclipsing all other World coins by a large margin and their popularity is rising exponentially.
What this means for the future of the hobby is yet to be determined, but I'd hazard to guess that that Chinese coins will continue rise for a while and will outperform other world coins as an investment.

Panda Halves

[Birdman]

It has been mentioned before as a possibility, but I am now seeing it over and over:  Someone buys one of the many available 2016 gold panda set as an interesting way to diversify their bullion holdings.  Then, they do a little research, and perhaps watch a few YouTube videos on gold pandas (some of those making gold panda videos have 1,000+ or 2,000+ subscribers).  Then, they start reading on this and other forums, and pretty soon they buy, say, a 2013 that they find for a good price.  Then they start filling in the gaps, and extending their collection back further, coin by coin, and they are intrigued with pandas for all the reasons we already are.  Some coins have certainly had a strong run, but it seems like there is a broadening base of collectors who are waiting to snap up certain coins should their prices pull back a bit.  A steady rising tide?  That should put pressure on the prices of many of the coins that haven't seen a run.  And, even if just a few of those new collectors push further for complete sets, that will put further pressure on the semi-key and key dates that already have dramatically reduced supply.  Interesting times for sure. 

[pandamonium]

Panda halves you were the first to post about collecting 1/2 oz exclusively, since i have been on this forum.    You were/are right.    What i see is huge upcoming demand for all MCC.     Even the locals in rural Oregon tell me the US sold their gold mostly to China and China will back or tie the Yuan to gold.   This basic knowledge is becoming mainstream in the Pacific NW and it has been posted on line for years.    We all know China has the buying power today not the bankrupt US.   As China's Yuan rises in the near future, their rare coin/medal market will race to the moon.    It is a freight train that cannot be stopped now.    Many of my leery friends that laughed out loud about buying Chinese coins/medals are now buying.    Even the coin shops in Eastern Oregon area & Bend stopped making fun of worthless Chinese junk and they hold MCC in the highest regard today.    The evidence is clear, the future is MCC and other Chinese coin/medals.    It will soon be one of the world's top investments and i stated that over 5 yrs ago when i started collecting.   Most know that gold/silver will soon be real money and the best of real money will be gold/silver minted in China.    When this obvious fact makes the national news then it will be game over.         MCC, there is no substitute..... 

[KeepOnTrying!]

I am seeing a lot of silver stackers on YouTube with some of them now making a move into gold coins. I get the impression that they work hard for their money and are gradually building their collection. They seem to be mainly bullion collectors with a fewer proportion adding semi-numismatic coins to their stash. Pandas are mentioned, at times, as part of the numismatic play together with other "semi-numis" such as the Perth mint lunar coins, Kooks etc.

I see a lot of effort at price efficiencies and I am not seeing a rush to very high premium (early mintage) panda coins. In fact one or two have pointedly refused to buy some of the currently high premium coins.

The hope is for more and more coin collectors to add panda coins to their collection strategy. Whether they will reach back in time for early (high priced) mintage in a significant number is uncertain at present (IMO). I am not even sure it is necessary for them to do so.

Perhaps by sticking to newer (more $ approachable) mintages they will radiate enthusiasm that will attract additional collectors, who are currently focussed on other bullion coins. BTW even the newer panda mintages have shown numismatic potential that cannot be sneezed at.

There has to be something that draws such a large crowd in the USA to non-panda coins. I know that this can be easily explained in some ways for example history and mintage numbers. But that may not be all.

[Birdman]

, and perhaps watch a few YouTube videos on gold pandas (some of those making gold panda videos have 1,000+ or 2,000+ subscribers).

For example, just today two panda posts by different folks.

"NCS (sister of NGC) can breath life into your coins - see how they did with these Pandas" 2220 subscribers  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6SvFxpcmV4

"Panda Saturday - An Unboxing For The Ages".  954 subscribers  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YU5OVvk96cU

Take a look at the comments.  Awareness and interest continues to increase.

It has been mentioned before as a possibility, but I am now seeing it over and over:  Someone buys one of the many available 2016 gold panda set as an interesting way to diversify their bullion holdings.  Then, they do a little research, and perhaps watch a few YouTube videos on gold pandas (some of those making gold panda videos have 1,000+ or 2,000+ subscribers).  Then, they start reading on this and other forums, and pretty soon they buy, say, a 2013 that they find for a good price.  Then they start filling in the gaps, and extending their collection back further, coin by coin, and they are intrigued with pandas for all the reasons we already are.  Some coins have certainly had a strong run, but it seems like there is a broadening base of collectors who are waiting to snap up certain coins should their prices pull back a bit.  A steady rising tide?  That should put pressure on the prices of many of the coins that haven't seen a run.  And, even if just a few of those new collectors push further for complete sets, that will put further pressure on the semi-key and key dates that already have dramatically reduced supply.  Interesting times for sure. 

 

[KeyDate1/2ozPandas]

The subscriber counts are amazing, they are multiples of my distribution list over the last 8 years.

The only thing cooler than buying, selling and holding coins is watching someone open one of your packages with stamps (buying stamps at 50% of face value and using them for postage saves money) plastered all over the box, 2003 1/4.

I have to make a video on how to open packages, poking a box with a sissior away from the edge may lead to damaged coins. For the NGC shipment I have never seen someone open it from the side rather than opening from the top.  Box cutter is the key to safely opening packages.

[Wafdawg]

I'm thoroughly convinced that investment appeal for pandas is in the early stages of a bull run.  I am only unsure about how parabolic its rise will be and what will that mean for prices.  Today's higher mintages in pandas, mostly in silver, but gold as well will further attract investment money in the space. Owning these silver pandas or gold pandas will realize larger gains than other bullion or semi-numismatic minted during the same timeframe. One decade of pandas minted at this rate would be a huge bull run of investment appeal for pandas.  It will also bring more pandas into the market than there ever was before. NGC populations for China Pandas will explode making the NGC populations of pandas minted during its golden era minuscule. Thus the realization of the true rarity and price explosion potential of these magnificent works of art.

[KeepOnTrying!]

Collector opinion on a high premium Panda coin: https://youtu.be/z0V4_9aCy8M

[Herrmo93]

It has been mentioned before as a possibility, but I am now seeing it over and over:  Someone buys one of the many available 2016 gold panda set as an interesting way to diversify their bullion holdings.  Then, they do a little research, and perhaps watch a few YouTube videos on gold pandas (some of those making gold panda videos have 1,000+ or 2,000+ subscribers).  Then, they start reading on this and other forums, and pretty soon they buy, say, a 2013 that they find for a good price.  Then they start filling in the gaps, and extending their collection back further, coin by coin, and they are intrigued with pandas for all the reasons we already are.  Some coins have certainly had a strong run, but it seems like there is a broadening base of collectors who are waiting to snap up certain coins should their prices pull back a bit.  A steady rising tide?  That should put pressure on the prices of many of the coins that haven't seen a run.  And, even if just a few of those new collectors push further for complete sets, that will put further pressure on the semi-key and key dates that already have dramatically reduced supply.  Interesting times for sure.  

jap that is plus/minus the way how I came to Panda coin "investing"...

[Herrmo93]

Collector opinion on a high premium Panda coin: https://youtu.be/z0V4_9aCy8M

I think that either the 1/2 oz coins will drop in price or the 1 oz will catch up ...

[silverpv]

The subscriber counts are amazing, they are multiples of my distribution list over the last 8 years.

The only thing cooler than buying, selling and holding coins is watching someone open one of your packages with stamps (buying stamps at 50% of face value and using them for postage saves money) plastered all over the box, 2003 1/4.

I have to make a video on how to open packages, poking a box with a sissior away from the edge may lead to damaged coins. For the NGC shipment I have never seen someone open it from the side rather than opening from the top.  Box cutter is the key to safely opening packages.

I made a video after a youtuber injured himself. As long as you know where the seams are its pretty easy to cut open. Unfortunately, the PandaKing has an injury where stabbing at the box was fun to watch, specifically because I can relate since I had a similar injury on both shoulders. Range of motion and mobility is really hard.

I figured that box was yours after you tried to sell those stamps. 

[paul4444]

When I went to church today and my pastor relayed an interesting message. We are a farily new church but with 15 or so campuses and expanding.  So our members have been very excited about all of the new facilities.  The message was we need not focus all of our time on the church and its members, we need to focus on the message.   This reminds me so much of our forum   Often myself and others focus too much on the cash value of these.  We even try to predict the future value of these coins.  But we are missing the message.  A coin will hold no value unless it is truly appreciated for its content, design, size, history and ect....   

[KeepOnTrying!]

When I went to church today and my pastor relayed an interesting message. We are a farily new church but with 15 or so campuses and expanding.  So our members have been very excited about all of the new facilities.  The message was we need not focus all of our time on the church and its members, we need to focus on the message.   This reminds me so much of our forum   Often myself and others focus too much on the cash value of these.  We even try to predict the future value of these coins.  But we are missing the message.  A coin will hold no value unless it is truly appreciated for its content, design, size, history and ect....  

Amen to that!  

And that's why I believe we need to continue to address the runaway valuation of some of these coins because this has the potential to curb collector enthusiasm. And they may walk away. Because there are bound to be alternatives elsewhere. So the pool of Panda coin collectors shrinks instead of growing.

The beauty of the gold Panda coins (if we use that example) becomes even more evident in the 1/2oz and 1oz sizes (Much fewer people can afford the 50g and 150g sizes). The clarity is wonderful. Yet these are rapidly getting out of reach. So I guess we need to buy magnifying loupes to appreciate that beauty in the currently affordable 1/10oz and 1/20oz non-"key date" coins.  

[paul4444]

Keep on trying,  well said. 

[Honus]

Amen to that!  

And that's why I believe we need to continue to address the runaway valuation of some of these coins because this has the potential to curb collector enthusiasm. And they may walk away. Because there are bound to be alternatives elsewhere. So the pool of Panda coin collectors shrinks instead of growing.

The beauty of the gold Panda coins (if we use that example) becomes even more evident in the 1/2oz and 1oz sizes (Much fewer people can afford the 50g and 150g sizes). The clarity is wonderful. Yet these are rapidly getting out of reach. So I guess we need to buy magnifying loupes to appreciate that beauty in the currently affordable 1/10oz and 1/20oz non-"key date" coins.  

I see things from a completely different perspective.   I'm a firm believer in free markets - let them go where they want to go, let the money go where it wants to go.  There's nothing to address, there's nothing to rein in.  Affluent money is going to buy what it wants to buy, whether it be West Vancouver real estate or Chinese gold pandas.   I wouldn't address the runaway valuation in Chinese pandas any sooner than I'd hope the people on the McLaren forums would take up cause to help me afford a shiny new 570S.  And I understand your perspective, KOT - I myself can't afford the rare key dates anymore.  But like most other markets, the Chinese panda market is stratified - there are people with money, and then there are people with MONEY.    

Forget about billionaires...there are currently 1.3 million millionaires in China.    If even 1 out of every 300 decides they want a panda set, I can forget ever again affording even the semi-key dates I'm missing in my collection.    Not only is the panda market not shrinking, or at risk of shrinking, it has the potential to explode exponentially.   Sure, exploding prices may curb the enthusiasm of the fringe collectors, or the guys on the silverstackers forums, or the collectors of US coins who buy the occasional 1/10 panda gold just for kicks.   But the market isn't about them, in my opinion.  It doesn't matter if they walk away - most of them can't compete with the immense quantities of Chinese capital looking for places to go anyway.  I've always believed, since the very beginning of my foray into Panda collecting 6 years ago, that the gold pandas would eventually migrate back home.  So while I understand where you're coming from, and I know I'll likely never own a 1995 1/2oz, I also believe that the market was never going to be about me anyway, or anyone even remotely close to my level of wealth.  

This is just my personal perspective, all just opinion, which along with 89 cents may get you a cup of coffee at the QuickieMart.