Author Topic: help requested.. why does this coin bring so much at auction  (Read 1837 times)

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Offline cabaretvolt

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help requested.. why does this coin bring so much at auction
« on: November 28, 2012, 07:37:42 PM »
http://www.ebay.com/itm/2002-1-10-OZ-50-YUAN-GOLD-CHINESE-PANDA-NGC-MS68-/170933763072?pt=US_World_Coins&hash=item27cc723c00

maybe i had a brain tumor for breakfast but that think red china reference book shows mintage on this coin
2002 1/10 gold - 250,000

and actually at panda america it has a different number
1/10 oz.    BU    36,092

2 questions...  why might be these numbers be different
also... why in the heck is that ebay price so high

so guys i know i'm missing something obvious here
"Okay, You people sit tight, hold the fort and keep the home fires burning. And if we're not back by dawn... call the president" - Burton

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: help requested.. why does this coin bring so much at auction
« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2012, 09:45:01 PM »
Perceived rarity. Fewer 2002s were bought since the design was the same as the previous year's design. This coin has also been very popular in recent months. Unknown whether prices will remain elevated at these levels, but I'm not counting on it.

Offline SANDAC

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Re: help requested.. why does this coin bring so much at auction
« Reply #2 on: November 28, 2012, 11:29:26 PM »
The actual mintage supposed to be 36,000.  However, the article I translated for restrikes also talk about the melting of gold/silver/bimetal inventory in 2002:  "... silver, 440,000 pieces total were melted for a net weight of 13586 kilogram, and for gold, 220,000 pieces were melted for a net weight of 1710kg."  It is unclear to me whether the 36,000 minted was counted before the meltdown or afterward.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=18.msg15048#msg15048

Offline Obsidian

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Re: help requested.. why does this coin bring so much at auction
« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2012, 02:02:07 AM »
Yes, the actual mintage of the 2002 1/10 is supposed to be 36,000 which makes it the key date post 2000.  Of all years, the only 2 dates with lower actual mintages are 1998 and 1999.  A lot of collectors that can't afford the pre-2000 prices are collecting 2000+ and this makes 2002 the key.  Also, as has been mentioned before with 2002 having the same design as 2001 there is speculation that populations could be lower.

Offline Hippanda

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Re: help requested.. why does this coin bring so much at auction
« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2012, 03:13:27 AM »
Another exceptional analysis, as usual, Obsidian.


As a side note, I am also enjoying a wonderful Obsidian Ridge 2008 Cabernet at his very moment.
Exceptional  as well . :001_cool:
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Confucius

Offline dynamike51

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Re: help requested.. why does this coin bring so much at auction
« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2012, 09:55:02 AM »
Another exceptional analysis, as usual, Obsidian.


As a side note, I am also enjoying a wonderful Obsidian Ridge 2008 Cabernet at his very moment.
Exceptional  as well . :001_cool:

I am fully aware of the risk of taking a contrarian view - that rocks will be thrown my way soon :0)  Let's "assume" the presented numbers are valid (an if), it's still 36,000 - a number that doesn't come close to being "rare", no?  So, does it deserve the premium paid - based on hype? Is it the "herd mentality" on display?

Offline Straitssettlementshop

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Re: help requested.. why does this coin bring so much at auction
« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2012, 10:33:02 AM »
Who push up (speculate) the price of 2002 1/10oz. Gold panda is it the Chinese from china or the Americans ?

Offline dynamike51

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Re: help requested.. why does this coin bring so much at auction
« Reply #7 on: November 29, 2012, 10:44:42 AM »
Who push up (speculate) the price of 2002 1/10oz. Gold panda is it the Chinese from china or the Americans ?

Does the herd of wildebeest care which one jumps into the raging river first?

Offline Straitssettlementshop

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Re: help requested.. why does this coin bring so much at auction
« Reply #8 on: November 29, 2012, 10:50:09 AM »
From here we will know who are the play maker where they have hoard most of the 1/10oz. 2002 first with lower entry cost and who are being played by following the herd by paying higher price.

Offline Honus

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Re: help requested.. why does this coin bring so much at auction
« Reply #9 on: November 29, 2012, 02:46:00 PM »
I am fully aware of the risk of taking a contrarian view - that rocks will be thrown my way soon :0)  Let's "assume" the presented numbers are valid (an if), it's still 36,000 - a number that doesn't come close to being "rare", no?  So, does it deserve the premium paid - based on hype? Is it the "herd mentality" on display?

I've been on the contrarian side of this for a while - I don't understand the huge increase in pricing, and it's baffled me for a while.   I personally won't pay current prices, and if I don't luck into one somehow at a coin or pawn shop, I guess I won't own one.   It seems to me to be herd mentality, but it's also possible that the rest of the MCC collecting world knows something that I don't and I'll be on the outside looking in!   But $1600 (the price paid for the last 2002 1/10 NGC MS69 to sell on eBay, just a few days ago) seems muy loco to me.   $1600 buys a lot of good stuff within the MCC universe, coins that I'd consider more rare and/or more desirable, but the market just gobbles up every 2002 1/10 that comes up and prices keep climbing.
Eric Liquori
Anvil Fine Wares
www.anvilfinewares.com


Offline Honus

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Re: help requested.. why does this coin bring so much at auction
« Reply #11 on: November 29, 2012, 03:31:47 PM »
Yes WG, I've seen all of those.  I'm an active eBayer myself, buying and selling, and most of those were on my watch list so I'm well aware of trends and recent sales.  But what's the point?   That if everyone else is paying $1200-1600 it must be wise?    That if that's the direction the herd is running, I should run there too?   What if the herd is running towards a cliff?  I understand the value of watching the masses, but the masses are not infallible.  If you're trying to make a different point in linking those results, please clarify.
Eric Liquori
Anvil Fine Wares
www.anvilfinewares.com

Offline wg

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Re: help requested.. why does this coin bring so much at auction
« Reply #12 on: November 29, 2012, 04:08:07 PM »

honus

i'm wondering for a long time.

factorial is ... on the market here 2002 is much less than 1998 in the supply.




Offline Obsidian

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Re: help requested.. why does this coin bring so much at auction
« Reply #13 on: November 29, 2012, 04:33:05 PM »
I think several people have answered the question as to why the 2002 sells at a premium to most other years.

As many have pointed out, the tougher question is whether it is a good deal at current price levels.  Nobody really knows the answer to that question.  I personally purchased a raw 2002 about 6 months ago for $550.  I felt comfortable at that price and it graded MS69.  I recently traded it as part of a whole 2002 MS69 SET for a more rare proof set I wanted.  That worked out fine.  On the other hand, I purchased a 2002 MS70 1/10 when it was a Pop 1.  Then several more were graded and so things there didn't turn out so well.  For me it is part of my 1/10th set so I don't really worry too much about it.

The 2002 1/10 have been selling at between 1100-1300 for quite a few months now.  Long enough for it to be more than a fluke.  If you think you will buy it and see it go up with similar speed over the next few months, I wouldn't hold my breath.  However, if you are trying to complete a set, need the coin, and can afford it, I don't think I'd lose a lot of sleep buying at these price levels.  Could it drop back to sub 1000?  Of course.  However, there is enough demand and has been for a long enough period to at least support a pretty high premium for this year.  Would I buy 20 of these at current prices hoping to make a quick buck in a few months or years.  Not personally.

As to the question about who is buying these.  It is mostly the Chinese.  They are very hard to find in China.  US Dealer buy prices for 2002 were 500-600 just 6 months ago.  They have been selling retail in China for $1300-1400 during that time frame.  Also in China, the 1/10th are being marketed and collected more widely than probably any other size.  I'd guess it's a good size / price combination for the upper middle class in China.  Especially if you want the whole run from 82-12 and factor in the ongoing cost to "maintain" the set each year.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2012, 04:37:04 PM by Obsidian »