Author Topic: Chinese Historical Figures and Culture 5Y silver coins  (Read 11663 times)

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Offline r3globe

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Re: Chinese Historical Figures and Culture 5Y silver coins
« Reply #15 on: August 20, 2011, 07:29:42 PM »
Thank you guys; these pop figures are very insightful and tracking them are even more insightful. I am a big believer in Historical Figures coins. While majority of collectors' money is chasing the popular coins (pandas,unicorns,..etc). These coins are undervalued (in my humble opinion). A couple of observations about the report:

1) Even with all the publicity the Kublai Khan coin got [I call it being BADONed], there is a meager 23% growth in NGC population! There is a total of 48 graded with all the publicity! This seems more commensurate with a mintage of 2000-4000 coin! Also, note the relative grade rarity around 60% get 69 [and owners send in their best ones!!]This coin should be worth $750-$1000 in PF 69 in 12-16 months.

2) The 1987 coins are reported to have to an actual mintage of only 4000 by Krause World coins, and the population reflects that. Also, note the grade rarity around 50%. I have a crush on princess Chen Wen :) You should see the amount of detail on that coin. She stands so elegant and beautiful in that coin.

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Chinese Historical Figures and Culture 5Y silver coins
« Reply #16 on: August 20, 2011, 09:17:22 PM »
I believe DiggingNorway's population report is compiled late June of this year, so the 30-40% growth occurred over last 2 months!  So even the 23% growth of Kublai Khan is very significant over such a short period.  The population report may also be skewed because the Historical Figures are distributed by a German company.  So most of the coins should be located in Europe.  Our European friends don't believe in the third party grading.

One thing I was looking for is the "European handling" of coins.  I kinda expect the population report to reflect the mishandling, but I don't see it.  The earlier Chinese modern coins generally have lower ratio of 69 vs total.  The ratio improves steadily into the 1990's.  I see the same trend with the Historical Figures.  Of course, the simple explaination is that these coins are not from Europe, therefore the mishandling does not show up.

I'm intrigued by the surge of 1992/1993 coins.  With population of 48, there are plenty of slabbed Kublai Khan on eBay.  There are none for the 1992 series.  My theory is that these were all from one dealer, and he/she is holding them back, and doling them out one at a time to maximize profit.

Offline DiggingNorway

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Re: Chinese Historical Figures and Culture 5Y silver coins
« Reply #17 on: November 21, 2011, 02:32:21 PM »
I don't know of any that were not double sealed. I think there was mention of German dealers selling them in their own packaging without the double seal, but I think they simply removed the seal. The China mint did not ship them with German packaging.

Look around and you might find mention of the red feylt trays that I think was part of the discussio
n. If you find the post, let us know.   
.      Some did come double sealed I just bought two today, I believe they are the German restrikes. I will post photos when they arrive...

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Chinese Historical Figures and Culture 5Y silver coins
« Reply #18 on: November 21, 2011, 03:30:53 PM »
Could you tell me which year of the historical figures are double sealed?  Thanks

Offline DiggingNorway

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Re: Chinese Historical Figures and Culture 5Y silver coins
« Reply #19 on: November 22, 2011, 01:35:39 PM »
1987 and 1986.... I will provide photos and some more information later...

Offline DiggingNorway

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Re: Chinese Historical Figures and Culture 5Y silver coins
« Reply #20 on: November 22, 2011, 04:13:51 PM »
Some while ago when we were discussing the Kublain Kahn coin over at LBC (and other Historical Figuers Coins, we found quite a few varities, we should have collected that thread) , anyway, back then, I directed some other collectors to a coinshop in Norway who sold online and which I used only in emergencies because I felt that their prices was completely out of whack :blink:

They used to charge around 350 NOK (60USD) per coin in raw condition. They obviosuly have no clue about the coins as they called them all kinds of erroneous names, wrong mintages, wrong KM numbers, wrong photos (the few times they provided photos at all) you name it. At the time I was picking up these coins for around 40 USD (and I still do, I just got my hands on 15 new specimens (from two different sources) for 40-50 USD each, some even in their original double sealed packaging (first time for me, will be exciting to see how they look like - photos will follow).

Nevertheless... during our KK discussions some guys from LBC bought some coins, Kublain Kahn I guess, and I also bought some at "expensive"  (60-90USD) prices only when my other channels were dry and over a period of half a year...one coin here and one coin there... after a while they only had a few coins left, all priced over 90 USD and I stopped buying... I checked their inventory now and again for new additions, but none showed up until today, when I checked for fun...

well guess what... now the same shop has obviously gotten their hands on some, and they have increased the price with 4 to 5 times! Now they are charging 1.800 NOK (330USD!!) for a raw Kublain Kahn!!! (and they have the wrong mintage... they claim it to be 10.000, I cannot help thinking what they would charge if they knew thay got that number wrong by around 5000 coins :w00t:

I have maybe bought 60% of their inventory of all 5 and 10 yuan silver coins (incl some olympics, traditional culture etc) and now they have somehow gotten the idea that they can source from the same channels that I do (for 50USD) and sell for 330!! Insane!

Worst of all, take a look at what they are charging for the forbidden city (mintage 80.000 if I am not mistaken) series! Prices now range from 220USD (1250NOK) to 320USD (1750NOK)! In the same series! As far as I know we have no indication what so ever that any of the forbidden city series coins are more rare or sought after than others....

These guys are completly out of whack - one thing to is to try to see what you can get, another thing is to get greedy based on wrong market signals (me buying almost all their coins as long as they were under 80-90 USD in extreme cases) and advertising their site at LBC) combined with a complete incompetence of the coins and the market.

I wish them good luck!! I will never buy any of their new inventory for these prices.... but its a free market and I monitor their site frequently so if they are able to sell at these prices then hey!! go for it! The only thing they have proven is that they are greedy and some whale came in and took the bait.. I am pretty sure that they did not pay more than 50USD per coin for their new inventory, if they did, well why is it that I can steadily accumulate the same coins for 50USD just by showing a little patience? From the same sources! (I will elaborate on this some other time) My most important lesson from joining the chinese coin collecting community online is still: You make money when you buy, not when you sell! And I stay with that strategy... and still my collection grows at a nice pace...

Take a look at their new prices!  :w00t: :w00t: - now how did I attach photos in the posts again?? its been a while since I did that....
« Last Edit: November 22, 2011, 04:28:48 PM by DiggingNorway »

Offline badon

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Re: Chinese Historical Figures and Culture 5Y silver coins
« Reply #21 on: November 23, 2011, 10:20:04 PM »
Some of the rare kublai khan varieties have been reliably selling for $400 or more in a 69 grade. Maybe they're looking at those prices and thinking their coins are similar? Either way, I have noticed supply seems to be disappearing for those coins, and a general increase in prices may come soon.

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Chinese Historical Figures and Culture 5Y silver coins
« Reply #22 on: November 24, 2011, 04:11:03 AM »
Some of the rare kublai khan varieties have been reliably selling for $400 or more in a 69 grade.
Is that a "small army" variety in PF69 grade?  I managed to purchase one "small army" variety of Kublai Khan from eBay early on, but since then I've not spot a single one.  Originally I thought the small army variety is about 1 in 10, but I start to think it is even more rare than that.  It is more likely 1 in 20.  If actual mintage of KK is ~5000 then the small army variety is 250 or so.

Offline badon

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Re: Chinese Historical Figures and Culture 5Y silver coins
« Reply #23 on: November 24, 2011, 04:41:22 AM »
One of them appeared in the LBC list a while ago. I think it sold for $400 or $450, but I can't remember exactly. It is clearly extremely rare - among the rarest of modern Chinese coins. When sectors rotate into the historical figures coins, it may be the key of keys. It's the rarest variety of the key to the set, according to current info. I have personally only seen 2 of them, and I've seen more kublai khan's than anybody I know of. SANDAC, I assume you have seen plenty of them too. How many have you seen?

Offline badon

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Re: Chinese Historical Figures and Culture 5Y silver coins
« Reply #24 on: November 24, 2011, 04:43:39 AM »
While majority of collectors' money is chasing the popular coins (pandas,unicorns,..etc). These coins are undervalued (in my humble opinion). A couple of observations about the report:

1) Even with all the publicity the Kublai Khan coin got [I call it being BADONed], there is a meager 23% growth in NGC population! There is a total of 48 graded with all the publicity! This seems more commensurate with a mintage of 2000-4000 coin! Also, note the relative grade rarity around 60% get 69 [and owners send in their best ones!!]This coin should be worth $750-$1000 in PF 69 in 12-16 months.

I haven't checked the stats recently. Have they grown much? The historical figures series may be due for another mention over at LBC.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Chinese Historical Figures and Culture 5Y silver coins
« Reply #25 on: November 24, 2011, 11:33:00 AM »
  Is the small army 3 soldiers standing behind Kublai Kahn?.......

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Chinese Historical Figures and Culture 5Y silver coins
« Reply #26 on: November 24, 2011, 11:48:07 AM »
A picture is better than a thousand words, I circled the two areas of differences between the big army and small army.  The three spears under the flag are missing, and the pyramid has a bite taken out of it.

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Chinese Historical Figures and Culture 5Y silver coins
« Reply #27 on: November 24, 2011, 11:53:42 AM »
SANDAC, I assume you have seen plenty of them too. How many have you seen?
About 100 or so.  I watch the eBay auction, visited the big on-line dealers and occasionally track down promise leads on NGC's population photos.

I just look up the population stat again.  KK's population went from 48 in 8/19/2011 to 120 today!  The other historical figures did not experience this kind of growth.  I'll work on the updated spreadsheet and upload it shortly.

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Chinese Historical Figures and Culture 5Y silver coins
« Reply #28 on: November 24, 2011, 12:57:52 PM »
Attached is PDF of the population today and growth since 8/19 and 6/22.  The rapid growth from 6/22 to 8/19 continues into today.  Kublai Khan has the highest growth numerically, but not percentage wise.  The 1987 Du Fu and Li Chun have grown tremendously.

Offline badon

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Re: Chinese Historical Figures and Culture 5Y silver coins
« Reply #29 on: November 24, 2011, 01:35:38 PM »
Fantastic information SANDAC, thanks for sharing it. What do you think it means to grow numerically, but not percentagewise? That seems to indicate that it isn't really growing as fast as other coins, which is to be expected for the key coin, even when it is preferentially sought for submission to NGC.