Author Topic: China and Chinese Numismatics  (Read 2837 times)

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Online PandaCollector

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China and Chinese Numismatics
« on: December 11, 2017, 09:49:14 PM »
To understand what is happening in Chinese numismatics it might be useful to understand serious, positive developments in China. These changes reach down from the general secretary to every corner of the country, including coin and medal production. In that spirit, the following is from today's front page of the China Daily:

"Xi: Uproot undesirable work styles"

"Fight to continue against hedonism, extravagance and other misconduct"

"Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee stressed that the fight against undesirable work styles should not be stopped...The new forms of misconduct are, in their nature, old problems said Xi... "The...work to improve the Party's conduct and work styles should never end."

In other news:

Former Chongqing political official facing corruption investigation

"Sun Zhengcai, the former secretary of Chongqing Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China, has been placed under investigation on suspicion of accepting bribes...According to the procurator ate, Sun has been placed under "coercive measures," which may include summons by force, bail, residential surveillance, detention and arrest.

The investigation is underway, the procurotate said in a statement released on Monday...he abused power and used his job to gain benefits for others, then accepted their huge bribes in return, either paid in cash or property, the CCDI said. He was found to seek substantial benefits for his relatives' businesses and accepted valuable gifts."

This is intended to offer a background for occasional numismatic-related events. I hope any responses will be confined to coin-related subjects.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline Pandaguy

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2017, 11:35:37 PM »
I fail to see how the same-old, same-old of the Chinese Communist government can/will influence Chinese numismatics. Don't be fooled. What Xi has been doing is only "window-dressing" to set an example for his other buddies to "tow the party line" or be exposed with some trumped-up charges.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2017, 11:45:43 PM »
Is this the thesis?

Xi Jinping = anti-corruption crusader = Scores of officials accused of corrupt practices.

People lying low = No more “gifts” for now = Slow down in set building? = Or other effects?

Perhaps the important development in the Chinese economy is the re-engineering from an export oriented economy to one that relies on boosting domestic consumption; still in evolution.

Not an expert in this area; just a well wisher!
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Offline bonke

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #3 on: December 12, 2017, 11:05:40 AM »
Peter

As you are aware, I am a collector of modern Chinese coins and medals. 

Sometimes, I purchase items from USA-based dealers.  Is something "brewing" which will limit these dealers ability to obtain numismatic material from the PRC?  If so, it would be better for me to know sooner rather than later so that I purchase from these USA-based dealers while they still have inventory. 

Sometimes, I purchase items from PRC-based dealers.  Is something "brewing" which will (in general) limit the ability of numismatic materials to move into or out of the PRC?  If so, this would limit my ability to purchase items from PRC-based dealers.

I have read your post numerous times, trying to understand the underlying meaning and the impact on my ability to pursue my hobby.  Any additional information will be appreciated.

Mark Bonke

 

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #4 on: December 12, 2017, 01:41:28 PM »
I see few trends emerging and I have planned accordingly:

1) Free trade with china restricted, it will be harder to send or receive from china.  Trump protectionist agenda will have ripple effects through customs, shipper restrictions, foreign accounts, etc.  The only way to hedge against this is to own high numismatic value items, those items will always be difficult to find in the local market and collectors/investors will seek foreign sources to purchase, my minimum for ownership is at least $500 premium over spot to be worth keeping. 

2) Crackdowns against corruption will continue, before there may have been 100,000-1,000,000 corrupt politicians, today it may be 1,000-10,000 and those that are left are at the top of the food chain and have covered their tracks well.   The demand of 30-100 master sets will continue each year.  To make 30 complete sets is very difficult, it requires many key coins that are hard to find because investors have locked them out of the market.

3) Alternative investments are becoming available to chinese buyers, bitcoins (some have spiked 100-300% in the last few days), foreign properties, stock markets, business opportunities, visa programs, etc.  All these will compete with gold more so than ever, which will make bullion just an insurance hedge against inflation and war.   Bullion is no longer an investment, but a just a hedge. 

4) PCGS for modern coins is dead on arrival, anyone that is grading coins in PCGS is getting killed, I refuse to buy any MS69 or MS70 coins at price above MS68 price.   Silver PCGS I refuse to buy above melt, those coins are destroyed forever.

5) Goldsheet and NGC price guide have taken the business opportunity of being a chinese dealer to razor thin margins.  You will see the number of sellers in the market increase as many coin shops will choose to sell on their own on Ebay, Heritage and Stacks, rather than wholesale to big chinese dealers.  This trend convinced me to move on from coin business to other opportunities few months ago.  Starting in 2018 I am just an investor, collector and consigner for past customers.

Happy hunting in the new year.

Arif


Offline bender9876

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #5 on: December 12, 2017, 02:16:23 PM »
Thank you for your input

Offline Clark Smith

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2017, 03:22:11 PM »
Older Chinese coins (pre-1949) in higher rarity might be a great investment going forward.    Better than modern coins.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2017, 05:20:59 PM »
Running with the herd .................... precarious (a la wg)!  :001_smile:
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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #8 on: December 12, 2017, 05:42:14 PM »
Peter

Sometimes, I purchase items from USA-based dealers.  Is something "brewing" which will limit these dealers ability to obtain numismatic material from the PRC?  If so, it would be better for me to know sooner rather than later so that I purchase from these USA-based dealers while they still have inventory. 

Sometimes, I purchase items from PRC-based dealers.  Is something "brewing" which will (in general) limit the ability of numismatic materials to move into or out of the PRC?  If so, this would limit my ability to purchase items from PRC-based dealers.
 

There may be some occasional temporary disruptions, but I do not expect the supply situation will fundamentally change for overseas buyers. I think that this policy is actually a very pro-business development that will benefit collectors. From what I have seen, people who reportedly have given and taken bribes, or business "gifts", never give collectors, honest dealers or anyone else a fair shake.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #9 on: December 12, 2017, 05:47:06 PM »
Older Chinese coins (pre-1949) in higher rarity might be a great investment going forward.    Better than modern coins.

The prohibition on exporting older Chinese coins from China should increase their scarcity outside the country. If demand remains strong then, yes, prices should continue to rise.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline bonke

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #10 on: December 12, 2017, 07:37:05 PM »
Peter

Do you have any information suggesting the PRC will impose restrictions on the movement of numismatic items (coins, currency or stamps) into or out of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region?  If the PRC wishes to limit or prohibit the export of numismatic items (pre-1949) from the PRC, it seems as though it is necessary to expand this limitation or prohibition to Hong Kong and Macau.  Otherwise, it is too easy for mainland collectors, investors and dealers to circumvent this limitation or prohibition, permitting them to sell items in the various auctions and permitting buyers to remove these items from the jurisdiction of the PRC.

Mark Bonke

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #11 on: December 13, 2017, 04:55:17 AM »
Peter

Do you have any information suggesting the PRC will impose restrictions on the movement of numismatic items (coins, currency or stamps) into or out of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region?  If the PRC wishes to limit or prohibit the export of numismatic items (pre-1949) from the PRC, it seems as though it is necessary to expand this limitation or prohibition to Hong Kong and Macau.  Otherwise, it is too easy for mainland collectors, investors and dealers to circumvent this limitation or prohibition, permitting them to sell items in the various auctions and permitting buyers to remove these items from the jurisdiction of the PRC.

Mark Bonke

Mark,

I haven't heard anything to suggest this will happen in the foreseeable future. Also, I think it is prohibited to take older items from the mainland to Hong Kong, so the only coins in question are those already in HK.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #12 on: December 13, 2017, 05:39:34 AM »

3) Alternative investments are becoming available to chinese buyers, bitcoins (some have spiked 100-300% in the last few days), foreign properties, stock markets, business opportunities, visa programs, etc.  All these will compete with gold more so than ever, which will make bullion just an insurance hedge against inflation and war.   Bullion is no longer an investment, but a just a hedge. 


Bitcoins are restricted in China and I have not found anyone there on this trip who owns any. Most of the time I needed to explain what they are. This is one area where I could see the People's Bank imposing further restrictions. I doubt that China will be a factor in any future growth for Bitcoin, at least for now. Either that, or I just don't know the right people!

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline bonke

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #13 on: December 13, 2017, 07:08:06 AM »
Peter

Thank you for the information.

My mistaken impressions were leading me to inappropriate and unnecessary concerns.  I will place my concerns to the side and return to my pursuit of new items for my small collection.

Mark Bonke

Offline pandamonium

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #14 on: December 13, 2017, 08:00:44 AM »
I understand the posts here are cautious as information is coming forward.           I think we have all been warned already and a matter of time for China to follow thru....   Let me go out on a limb...
We were told some vintage early years will have restrictions.     This will be enforced in time...
I agree w/ Clark that vintage Chinese will have a bigger upside than MCC.     MCC is almost 40 yrs old, vintage are over 100 yrs old....
China stated some time ago that their MCC will serve the domestic market when demand outstrips supply.    Is that happening now?    We in the West will not have access to many new medals and coins, etc.....
More books and research mean many early year, unknown medals will be discovered.    At some point early year artists will rise.   Everyone knows i think highly of Feng Yunming, what about Chen Jian?     I know of his God silver, gilt brass and 2 sizes of brass is about it.    Other early year artists?...
When the music stops, what we have is all that we have.....
Like others have posted, supply in the West is very thin.     Dealers in Asia (not China) say their Chinese were sold back years ago.     Probably the same worldwide......    Low supply and high demand on the way.....

Offline mazinger7000

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #15 on: December 14, 2017, 09:18:25 AM »
Bitcoins are restricted in China and I have not found anyone there on this trip who owns any. Most of the time I needed to explain what they are. This is one area where I could see the People's Bank imposing further restrictions. I doubt that China will be a factor in any future growth for Bitcoin, at least for now. Either that, or I just don't know the right people!

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

this is a quote from Elly Zhang's article on coindesk today. I'm assuming it's correct, but i have no personal experience to back that up.
"Relevant for this conversation is the fact that 70% of bitcoin's mining power belongs to China's miners, and the fact is that these entities can easily join forces. Bitcoin Cash, I believe, is a prime example of that." perhaps, as you said, you don't know the right people!

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #16 on: December 14, 2017, 11:11:04 AM »
Cheap electricity next to hydro dams in China makes mining bitcoins very profitables.

Getting people to talk about bitcoins in China is like asking a professional in US if they are going to vote for Trump before the election or asking a senior at bingo night what they think about bitcoin, either they don't want to admit owning a product that government and banks are trying to crush out of existence or they have no clue.  Go to Korea where freedom of speech is more protected and you will hear many talk about bitcoins.  I feeling is bitcoin is underground movement in China and talking about it implies gambling, illegal activities and desire of freedom from government hand.

Offline r3globe

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #17 on: December 14, 2017, 01:37:45 PM »
Cheap electricity next to hydro dams in China makes mining bitcoins very profitables.

Getting people to talk about bitcoins in China is like asking a professional in US if they are going to vote for Trump before the election or asking a senior at bingo night what they think about bitcoin, either they don't want to admit owning a product that government and banks are trying to crush out of existence or they have no clue.  Go to Korea where freedom of speech is more protected and you will hear many talk about bitcoins.  I feeling is bitcoin is underground movement in China and talking about it implies gambling, illegal activities and desire of freedom from government hand.
+1 wow great insights!

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #18 on: December 14, 2017, 05:20:41 PM »
To understand what is happening in Chinese numismatics it might be useful to understand serious, positive developments in China. These changes reach down from the general secretary to every corner of the country, including coin and medal production. In that spirit, the following is from today's front page of the China Daily:

"Xi: Uproot undesirable work styles"

"Fight to continue against hedonism, extravagance and other misconduct"

"Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee stressed that the fight against undesirable work styles should not be stopped...The new forms of misconduct are, in their nature, old problems said Xi... "The...work to improve the Party's conduct and work styles should never end."

In other news:

Former Chongqing political official facing corruption investigation

"Sun Zhengcai, the former secretary of Chongqing Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China, has been placed under investigation on suspicion of accepting bribes...According to the procurator ate, Sun has been placed under "coercive measures," which may include summons by force, bail, residential surveillance, detention and arrest.

The investigation is underway, the procurotate said in a statement released on Monday...he abused power and used his job to gain benefits for others, then accepted their huge bribes in return, either paid in cash or property, the CCDI said. He was found to seek substantial benefits for his relatives' businesses and accepted valuable gifts."

This is intended to offer a background for occasional numismatic-related events. I hope any responses will be confined to coin-related subjects.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

You are quoting of China Daily, a publication owned by Chinese Communist Party. It may not represent the view of ordinary Chinese. 10-20 years from now, we will find out if the anti-corruption activities are real or just political purging of competitive section of the communist party. Majority of younger generation do not care about what is going on with the Government.
 
Coin collecting is one of the longest hobbies in the world and will not be affected by the policy change of the government. During last few years, I did see China Mint issued more commemorative MCC related to the communist party vs. pre-2010 MCC.

Most culture revolution stamps are very valuable. IMO, the current anti-corruption activities inside China is a mini-culture revolution. 

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #19 on: December 14, 2017, 05:36:14 PM »
Cheap electricity next to hydro dams in China makes mining bitcoins very profitables.

Getting people to talk about bitcoins in China is like asking a professional in US if they are going to vote for Trump before the election or asking a senior at bingo night what they think about bitcoin, either they don't want to admit owning a product that government and banks are trying to crush out of existence or they have no clue.  Go to Korea where freedom of speech is more protected and you will hear many talk about bitcoins.  I feeling is bitcoin is underground movement in China and talking about it implies gambling, illegal activities and desire of freedom from government hand.

+ 1
Most bitcoin transactions are done in Asia, especially in those countries with corrupted government and business practices, such as China, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand and Japan, since the transactions are not traceable.
 
Here is an article from New York Times, dated 9/13/2017, about one of the largest Bitcoin farm in the world, located in China. China has not banned the transaction of Bitcoin, but has indefinitely suspended the operation of Exchanges.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/13/business/bitcoin-mine-china.html


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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #20 on: December 14, 2017, 11:22:15 PM »
You are quoting of China Daily, a publication owned by Chinese Communist Party. It may not represent the view of ordinary Chinese. 10-20 years from now, we will find out if the anti-corruption activities are real or just political purging of competitive section of the communist party. Majority of younger generation do not care about what is going on with the Government.


I quoted the China Daily precisely because it is government owned, as are all the official mints. The mints will always, always follow the direction of the Party as reflected by the China Daily. You may be aware of this already. The China Daily can provide insights for the rest of the world to understand events, too.

Some of the numismatically-connected people who rumor suggests may be involved are people I have met. Over time I have grown to believe that, overall, their actions have not been beneficial to collectors and the numismatic community. So the changes that I have heard about so far do not seem arbitrary or misguided. That said, this is an area where little is ever confirmed.

Unfortunately, a majority of younger generation do not care about coin collecting. They hardly even use coins in their daily life any more.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #21 on: December 15, 2017, 12:59:51 AM »
I quoted the China Daily precisely because it is government owned, as are all the official mints. The mints will always, always follow the direction of the Party as reflected by the China Daily. You may be aware of this already. The China Daily can provide insights for the rest of the world to understand events, too.

Some of the numismatically-connected people who rumor suggests may be involved are people I have met. Over time I have grown to believe that, overall, their actions have not been beneficial to collectors and the numismatic community. So the changes that I have heard about so far do not seem arbitrary or misguided. That said, this is an area where little is ever confirmed.

Unfortunately, a majority of younger generation do not care about coin collecting. They hardly even use coins in their daily life any more.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

I am not that pessimistic because “collecting” is a human trait; they will eventually come around to it in their own particular way. The only problem is what shape the narcissist baby boomers leave the whole field in, because they have always been resource hungry to the exclusion of others.

But those shiny metals have an age old allure that will eventually attract the young bucks’ currently defocussed gaze.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #22 on: December 17, 2017, 03:12:52 AM »
Most bitcoin transactions are done in Asia, especially in those countries with corrupted government and business practices, such as China, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand and Japan, since the transactions are not traceable...China has not banned the transaction of Bitcoin, but has indefinitely suspended the operation of Exchanges.

Why do you think they have not banned cryptocurrencies? I doubt it is because they are happy that a secret channel exists to bypass their nation's financial regulatory controls. My guess is that they are looking for a method and if and when they find a technical means to enforce a complete ban, they will impose one.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3

Offline poconopenn

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #23 on: December 17, 2017, 04:48:32 PM »
Why do you think they have not banned cryptocurrencies? I doubt it is because they are happy that a secret channel exists to bypass their nation's financial regulatory controls. My guess is that they are looking for a method and if and when they find a technical means to enforce a complete ban, they will impose one.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
Bitcoin mining is considered as one of high tech industry which has been the top priority during the last few years for China to be able to transfer from a low margin traditional manufacture industry to a high profit digital products manufacture base. China already has the fast and largest super-computer (overtook IBM last year) and bitcoin mining need high speed super-computers and is a nature extension of this development. In addition, mining of cryptocurrencies has created many high pay jobs.

The suspension of Bitcoin Exchange is the same as the suspension of some of Coins and Stamps Exchange last year, it is for the stability of the financial market due to the fraudulent activities and lack of transparency of the Exchanges.

China may need “free trade” more than other countries in the future, since they want to sell electric cars, airplanes and digital products worldwide. There is no reason to believe that China will restrict the export of collectible items, especially MCC, IMO. The market will be the controlling factor.


Offline poconopenn

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #24 on: December 17, 2017, 04:57:56 PM »
Here is website of Mrs. Xi Jinping, first lady of China.
 
Preparation of state banquet at Peoples’ Great Hall.

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0TfvOFxYDBaKDYyGfKcuUg

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #25 on: December 18, 2017, 03:49:24 PM »
There is no reason to believe that China will restrict the export of collectible items, especially MCC, IMO. The market will be the controlling factor.



In general I agree 100% with this. CGCI exports are automatic. For others each shipment must be approved. The devil is in the details.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #26 on: February 05, 2018, 05:13:12 PM »
Bitcoin mining is considered as one of high tech industry which has been the top priority during the last few years for China to be able to transfer from a low margin traditional manufacture industry to a high profit digital products manufacture base. China already has the fast and largest super-computer (overtook IBM last year) and bitcoin mining need high speed super-computers and is a nature extension of this development. In addition, mining of cryptocurrencies has created many high pay jobs.

The suspension of Bitcoin Exchange is the same as the suspension of some of Coins and Stamps Exchange last year, it is for the stability of the financial market due to the fraudulent activities and lack of transparency of the Exchanges.

China may need “free trade” more than other countries in the future, since they want to sell electric cars, airplanes and digital products worldwide. There is no reason to believe that China will restrict the export of collectible items, especially MCC, IMO. The market will be the controlling factor.



"China's regulators will reportedly block local investor access to cryptocurrency exchanges anywhere in the world, not just in mainland China. If you're a Chinese gambler in crypto, it will become even harder to buy from your laptop in Shanghai using exchanges in Hong Kong or Singapore." Forbes (https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2018/02/05/banks-retailers-china-have-all-turned-on-bitcoin/#185d3fb95caa)

This was predictable – and more. IMO, it is in a different category entirely than the coin exchanges.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

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Re: China and Chinese Numismatics
« Reply #27 on: February 05, 2018, 10:10:43 PM »
Last time China crackdown on bitcoin trading in a major way was in December of 2013 and the price dropped from $1200 to $400 in three weeks.  My target buy prices for bitcoins was in mid $5000 but now with china trading ban mid $3000 looks like better entry point, probably do 50/50 at each entry point.  With 75-85% correction I am sure some US big boys will step in and buy to preserve their investment and we could get a nice bounce back to $9000 quickly.  The key with an asset that really has zero fundamental value is to trade it and have pre-defined entry and exit points, owning these coins for the long term can be costly as I know at least two mcc investors got washed out today with margin calls. 

I think China will continue to mine coins, they will just do it on the down low, so certain government pockets are lined along the way.  As with all things China the government wants a piece of the action if someone is getting rich.