I followed up on the 1981 Lu Xun. I found seven with connected dots out of 34 studied. I'm struck with the mirrored quality of all seven compared to the rest. I sorted the reverse based on mirrored quality and the top seven turned out to have connected dots on the obverse. All this reminds me of silver plated Pagoda which are significantly shinier than the true silver pagoda. My theory is that like pagoda, the 1981 Lu Xun with connected dot is not fake, but silver plated version. It is possible the silver plated version is lighter and of the same weight as the gilt version also on eBay from the same seller.
Ugh...I can't keep track of all these relatively obscure medals, much less the silver-plated-brass, gilt-brass, brass, or other versions of them! In the back of my mind, it seems like it might be an area where a counterfeiter could put out his own version of something, get it recognized as official, out of obscurity, and then make a lot of money. With the pagodas and the goldfish, I gather that NGC has done its research and is confident that they are authentic.
http://www.ngccoin.com/news/viewarticle.aspx?NewsletterNewsArticleID=1664http://www.ngccoin.com/news/viewarticle.aspx?IDArticle=3071If so, and if there is an NGC price guarantee, I guess buying an NGC-graded item could be an OK investment if you like the medals. But personally, in general, I would be cautious about trying to get ahead of the curve and invest heavily in the next silver-plated, gilt-brass, or brass version of something in advance of it being recognized by NGC. If you are a new collector, do your homework, be suspicious of potential conflicts of interest, and think independently.
Since I have a full time job, and coin collecting is just a side hobby, it is all I can do to try to keep up with the subtleties of population numbers and varieties for gold pandas. Maybe after I retire I'll have the time and brain cells available to branch out and try to thoroughly understand some of the more obscure Chinese numismatic offerings.
Having shared the above thoughts...in the interest of full disclosure, I have a significant investment in gold pandas, and I tend to like pure silver and pure gold, in general, so I have my own biases