Topic: First impressions from the Baltimore Show

[Birdman]

I showed up to the Baltimore Show early with a number of graded, better-date gold pandas;  I was looking to trade for some dates I didn't have.  The only problem was that there were very few better-date gold pandas present at this large coin show.  I asked some dealers why there were so few.  More than one dealer said that the coins had been bought up and sent to China over the past few weeks/months.  Accordingly, I only traded one Panda today, and it was for a nice Thailand silver coin from 1863, not for modern Chinese.

I also observed several Chinese individuals today negotiating hard, and buying up a lot of coins.  I spoke to one Chinese man who said he was visiting from China on a coin buying trip.  He was buying dozens of coins.

A few dealers showed strong interest in buying what I had, but when I saw how little material was available on the floor, my thinking was that it is better to hold onto these pieces than sell to a dealer right now for 10% or so less than current retail price.  It seems that this depleted supply, and the apparent continued demand from China, will cause prices to rise higher.  I'll just keep the coins and use them to trade for pieces of similar scarcity.

Is there anyone else with perspectives/observations from the floor of the Baltimore show?

Birdman

[pandamonium]

Great information Birdman!  Comments like that will help us all.  Keeping a pulse on the market is vital, thanks again...........................

[Birdman]

Great information Birdman!  Comments like that will help us all.  Keeping a pulse on the market is vital, thanks again...........................

No problem, Pandamonium.  No one of us can be all places at all times, but if we each share a bit about what we are seeing in our part of the country/world, we can collectively piece together a patchwork understanding of the current market trends.

[Panda Halves]

 
It is nice to have someone as keenly perceptive as you out in the field
sharing information.

Thank you for the inside scoop!
PH

[badon]

Great writeup Birdman! fwang2450 has opened my eyes to unbelievable size of China. I'm happier than ever to own rare modern Chinese coins, and I can't wait to buy more when I find what I'm looking for. In the West, people are thinking that prices need to remain low to get buyers, but that's not the case at all from the Chinese perspective. From their point of view, it's amazing there's anything available to buy at any price.

[aragog]

I showed up to the Baltimore Show early with a number of graded, better-date gold pandas;  I was looking to trade for some dates I didn't have.   I also observed several Chinese individuals today negotiating hard, and buying up a lot of coins.  I spoke to one Chinese man who said he was visiting from China on a coin buying trip.  He was buying dozens of coins.

A few dealers showed strong interest in buying what I had, but when I saw how little material was available on the floor, my thinking was that it is better to hold onto these pieces than sell to a dealer right now for 10% or so less than current retail price.  It seems that this depleted supply, and the apparent continued demand from China, will cause prices to rise higher.  I'll just keep the coins and use them to trade for pieces of similar scarcity.

Is there anyone else with perspectives/observations from the floor of the Baltimore show?

Birdman

I am not surprised that at big coin show there are chinese coin collectors looking for nice coins.
But my were shut wide when I saw one chinese going from seller to seller and asking for chinese coins at one really small coin auction here in CZ. I am not sure if he found anything because it takes 2-3 months to come along a nice chinese coin. Nevertheless, there are quite a few nice collections of stamps and paper money, that were available always at discount prices ( about 30% of german or US prices, but now they are selling at more or less market prices and demand is still strong.
So, now even in a small 10mln country you cannot buy cheaply.
And a little off topic. Proof coins are really risky investment, did not expect that a scratch can take 90% off the price. I regret I did not win a 2000$ coin for that price I don`t mind a scratch at all.
http://www.ebay.de/itm/200780508262?ssPageName=STRK:MEDWX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1435.l2649

[davidt3251]

Badon, My only real concern about MCC market is that te wealthy Chinese think their own market unsustainable due to corruption. The party elite all have their families in the US. They berate subordinates to work hard and be patriotic while they have milked the system and have two feet out the door because they fear their wealth mightb be stolen.

From the Canadian newspaper Financial Post:

Brimming with the spoils of a historic economic expansion, Chinese millionaires by the tens of thousands wish to make Canada home for their families and their private wealth.

and

Her concerns with pollution are shared by a growing number of Chinese elite, as are fears of political instability, and security of their assets.

“We worked very hard on our business and we earn every penny. I don’t want somebody to take it back,” she said, indicating the family made its money from a electrical component manufacturing business.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/02/why-is-canada-keeping-out-chinas-rich/

When the US was having its boom years, immigrants would not pack up and go back to Europe the moment they amassed wealth. And its not just 'avoiding pollution' as some may counterargue. There are places in China with clean air, so why are the USA, Canada and Australia favored residences for the Chinese elite. The readiness of the wealthy-our ultimate MCC buyers-to abandon their country means a few things to me:
-weathy Chinese embrace western culture over Chinese culture.
-if they are largely discarding Chinese culture why would they want MCCs, they may be just as interested in Canadian or Auzzie lunars

In markets like MCCs you are dependent on a larger group of buyers coming in en masse to bolster demand and valuations. MCCs are produced in tiny numbers, but even with all the hype (books, articles, interviews) an=bout the 30yr anniversary of the panda, I know many dealers were expecting much higher prices a month back.

Some will blame the economic slowdown. I am not so sure. Apple's iPad, iPhone sold well in the US in an economy with the highest unemployment in decades. Some will say 'no, MCCs are investments those are rtoys' others will reply 'iPhone and iPaad are good productivity tools for my business-they make me money'

[Batman]

Badon, My only real concern about MCC market is that te wealthy Chinese think their own market unsustainable due to corruption. The party elite all have their families in the US. They berate subordinates to work hard and be patriotic while they have milked the system and have two feet out the door because they fear their wealth mightb be stolen.

From the Canadian newspaper Financial Post:

Brimming with the spoils of a historic economic expansion, Chinese millionaires by the tens of thousands wish to make Canada home for their families and their private wealth.

and

Her concerns with pollution are shared by a growing number of Chinese elite, as are fears of political instability, and security of their assets.

“We worked very hard on our business and we earn every penny. I don’t want somebody to take it back,” she said, indicating the family made its money from a electrical component manufacturing business.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/02/why-is-canada-keeping-out-chinas-rich/

When the US was having its boom years, immigrants would not pack up and go back to Europe the moment they amassed wealth. And its not just 'avoiding pollution' as some may counterargue. There are places in China with clean air, so why are the USA, Canada and Australia favored residences for the Chinese elite. The readiness of the wealthy-our ultimate MCC buyers-to abandon their country means a few things to me:
-weathy Chinese embrace western culture over Chinese culture.
-if they are largely discarding Chinese culture why would they want MCCs, they may be just as interested in Canadian or Auzzie lunars

In markets like MCCs you are dependent on a larger group of buyers coming in en masse to bolster demand and valuations. MCCs are produced in tiny numbers, but even with all the hype (books, articles, interviews) an=bout the 30yr anniversary of the panda, I know many dealers were expecting much higher prices a month back.

Some will blame the economic slowdown. I am not so sure. Apple's iPad, iPhone sold well in the US in an economy with the highest unemployment in decades. Some will say 'no, MCCs are investments those are rtoys' others will reply 'iPhone and iPaad are good productivity tools for my business-they make me money'

IMHO, the short answer is that China is still a communist country.  I know if I had accumulated signficant wealth inside China, I would also try to get out as much as possible.  You have to ask just one question to see communism at work;  Where is Bo?

However, that does not mean the the people of China would abandon their rich history and culture, including MCC's.  MCC's tell a story, and they will always be collectible.

Regarding dealers expecting higher prices, maybe it was just a symptom of irrational exhuberance.

[GDG's]

Badon, My only real concern about MCC market is that te wealthy Chinese think their own market unsustainable due to corruption. The party elite all have their families in the US. They berate subordinates to work hard and be patriotic while they have milked the system and have two feet out the door because they fear their wealth mightb be stolen.

From the Canadian newspaper Financial Post:

Brimming with the spoils of a historic economic expansion, Chinese millionaires by the tens of thousands wish to make Canada home for their families and their private wealth.

and

Her concerns with pollution are shared by a growing number of Chinese elite, as are fears of political instability, and security of their assets.

“We worked very hard on our business and we earn every penny. I don’t want somebody to take it back,” she said, indicating the family made its money from a electrical component manufacturing business.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/02/why-is-canada-keeping-out-chinas-rich/

When the US was having its boom years, immigrants would not pack up and go back to Europe the moment they amassed wealth. And its not just 'avoiding pollution' as some may counterargue. There are places in China with clean air, so why are the USA, Canada and Australia favored residences for the Chinese elite. The readiness of the wealthy-our ultimate MCC buyers-to abandon their country means a few things to me:
-weathy Chinese embrace western culture over Chinese culture.
-if they are largely discarding Chinese culture why would they want MCCs, they may be just as interested in Canadian or Auzzie lunars

In markets like MCCs you are dependent on a larger group of buyers coming in en masse to bolster demand and valuations. MCCs are produced in tiny numbers, but even with all the hype (books, articles, interviews) an=bout the 30yr anniversary of the panda, I know many dealers were expecting much higher prices a month back.

Some will blame the economic slowdown. I am not so sure. Apple's iPad, iPhone sold well in the US in an economy with the highest unemployment in decades. Some will say 'no, MCCs are investments those are rtoys' others will reply 'iPhone and iPaad are good productivity tools for my business-they make me money'

David,

Do remember when Hong Kong was reverting back to mainland China. Canada enticed many wealthy Chinese from Hong Kong to settle in Canada. That turned out to be a big financial mistake on their part with many returning to Honk Kong. Singapore is also an authoritarian regime but you don't see anyone wanting to leave Singapore. Singapore, BTW, has the largest per capita number of Millionaires at 17 %. If you visit the Republic of China I for one find it a more Capitalistic society then America. The "communist" label is just that, a label.

I don't even want to get into Chinese corruption. Surely America's corruption is as great are even greater.  could expound on that for hours. Suffice it to say the 1800's were the century of England, the 1900's the century of America and the 21st Century is all Asia and in particular China. There is no avoiding it. There will be growth pains and setbacks but if I was a young man I'd be learning Mandarin FAST.

[GDG's]

David,

->>>>>weathy Chinese embrace western culture over Chinese culture.
-if they are largely discarding Chinese culture why would they want MCCs, they may be just as interested in Canadian or Auzzie lunars<<<<<

David,

In my humble opinion you couldn't be more wrong. I have friends that are in the U.S. for one year on business. They cannot wait to go back to Singapore. In particular the U.S school system they are horrified with(they have 3 young children who speak Mandarin and English)

I agree many areas in China suffer from pollution but America does also. Google super fund sites and watch how many come up. China puts a great emphasis on education which sadly America no longer does. We award scholarships for basketball, football, baseball and not enough for Math and Science. I do not believe the average Chinese has anything to worry about the Chinese government stealing their money. Just remember who stole our Gold and after they had it all raised the price of Gold. I fear my own government and have taken appropriate steps because of it.

[exchange]

If was a young man I'd be learning Mandarin FAST.

Your never to old to learn a new language.


exchange

[davidt3251]

"They cannot wait to go back to Singapore"

But Singapore isnt China (yet!) I like Singapore, HK too.

[dragonfan]

" However, that does not mean the the people of China would abandon their rich history and culture, including MCC's.  MCC's tell a story, and they will always be collectible."

Very true!

dragonfan

[davidt3251]

Well I never said abandon.

Here's an example:

In 1988 when I spent some time in Japan the women would buy $30-50k kimonos for their weddings, and then after the ceremony put them in a box which they would open just occasionally. There was a flourishing antique kimono business. Inherited kimonois had value.

Then as the people westernized, the young ladies would borrow the parents kimono if it had to be a traditional wedding. I once owned an event company and we even offered 'balloon theme weddings' at the annual wedding show at the Osaka Hilton Hotel in (1992)

Now, the trend is to have a foreigner who has a marriage license wed you. The foreigner is an english teacher who paid to get a license. The coyple saves over the traditional costs, which are the same frictionless costs in society we see all the time with institutionalized practices.

Nowadays, the antique kimono market is much smaller. Young ladies rarely spend the money on a kimono. They'd rather have a car or downpayment on a house.

to wit:

the kimono has a long history — more than 1,000 years — but most of the rules that the Japanese rely on today were established just 150 years ago, or less. The kimono has been worn much more freely for most of its history.

Unfortunately, the kimono market has been dramatically shrinking
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/12/opinion/12iht-edlet11.html

So my point was just that sometimes a cultural investment, where you think 1000 years gives you a base, doesnt pan out because societal tastes change, and I dont think China is much different.

[low]

So my point was just that sometimes a cultural investment, where you think 1000 years gives you a base, doesnt pan out because societal tastes change, and I dont think China is much different.

I agree.

I don't see many people talk about ancient Chinese coins. These are truly historically and culturally significant coins, but who really care to learn about them?

Not many.

I don't see how MCC can be more historically or culturally significant than the real Chinese coins with 1000s years of history.

No offence here. If one really appreciate Chinese culture, then the very first thing is to learn the language. You can't say you appreciate the culture just by buying few coins and hoping you made some profit along the way.

To me that is a real insult.

[dragonfan]

davidt3151, I only collect/invest in legal tender coins. Never in kimonos.

[dragonfan]

low, very few years (months) ago, Chinese people and culture were bull shit from a west perspective, please give them a chance!

[White_Rabbit]

I was at baltimore today. There were very little amount of graded pandas. What  little was there, was high dollar coins. I saw a 1996 pf69uc 1 oz gold panda. Gorgeous, but way out of my budget. 1992 ms70 1 oz gold panda. Also very nice from the same dealer. I also saw a 1988 1 oz gold basel from another dealer.  The most interesting thing I saw, was a 1982 coin with red spots. I know it may sound lame but it was a learning experience for me. Now I know what red spots look like.

[Year of the Dog]

I am willing to loan out my Mandarin Rosetta Stone. 

If anybody else wants to truly appreciate the Chinese Culture.

[GDG's]

I am willing to loan out my Mandarin Rosetta Stone. 

If anybody else wants to truly appreciate the Chinese Culture.

I too have all 5 sets of Rosetta Stone in Mandarin. My wife and I have also taken Mandarin Classes. We are giving some thought to moving to China for a year. I do appreciate the culture. There is so much to see and we just can't do it for a few months. Also a year would give us immersion into the language. We won't seek out English speaking Chinese but try to exclusively communicate through Mandarin. We are looking at Shanghai and also a few cities in Guangdong Province (warm). We will of course be traveling throughout China but are leaning to our home base being in the south.

[exchange]

I am willing to loan out my Mandarin Rosetta Stone.  

If anybody else wants to truly appreciate the Chinese Culture.

Absolutely correct, nothing more important than the language of a culture. Back in January I did purchase my rosetta stone levels 1 to 5. A few months ago I did my first order in Mandarin at a local Chinese restaurant. I impressed the heck out of all the family members who had no idea. That moment to me was worth more than all my coins combined. I also ended up getting a complimentary dish on the house for been a "Chinese comrade" 

 
exchange

[davidt3251]

I keep reading about how China goes through these booms and busts all through history. How they cant hold it together. Francis Fukuyama talked about it in his book Trust. He said that in countries like the US, Japan, you can have large organizations due to trust. When I lived in Johor Bahru, Malaysia, there was a Panasonic plant making TVs. The Japanese plant, the organization, was on one side of the road. Many Malaysian Malays and Indians worked there. Across the road was some industrial parks with many small garages. Thats where the Chinese worked, largely in 1-3 man operations, making the cable assemblies, buttons, casings and other components.

Has trust changed? NY Times today:

In Hong Kong, Frustration 15 Years After Return to Chinese Rule


Public mistrust of the central government in Beijing is at its highest since the handover in 1997, while approval ratings for Leung Chun-ying, the incoming Hong Kong chief executive, have dropped sharply before his inauguration.

Pressing economic worries have contributed to public frustration that has been building for months, both with Beijing and with the political and economic system in Hong Kong since 1997, a system in which special interests controlled by a small circle of wealthy tycoons select the chief executive.


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/30/world/asia/in-hong-kong-frustration-after-return-to-chinese-rule.html?pagewanted=all

[comeaux]

I agree.

I don't see many people talk about ancient Chinese coins. These are truly historically and culturally significant coins, but who really care to learn about them?

Not many.

I don't see how MCC can be more historically or culturally significant than the real Chinese coins with 1000s years of history.

No offence here. If one really appreciate Chinese culture, then the very first thing is to learn the language. You can't say you appreciate the culture just by buying few coins and hoping you made some profit along the way.

To me that is a real insult.

Well said low and I agree ... I just love the way you tell it like it is. I like your style ... 

[Birdman]

Absolutely correct, nothing more important than the language of a culture. Back in January I did purchase my rosetta stone levels 1 to 5. A few months ago I did my first order in Mandarin at a local Chinese restaurant. I impressed the heck out of all the family members who had no idea. That moment to me was worth more than all my coins combined. I also ended up getting a complimentary dish on the house for been a "Chinese comrade"  

exchange

Impressive, indeed.  Good work.  Keep up your studies...In my studies of Spanish (in college) and Vietnamese (albeit briefly using Rosetta Stone), few things establish a connection with those from different cultures as well as being able to speak their language (especially if you are an American, as their expectations for your language skills are very low).  The only thing that comes close is being able to play soccer well (I played in college) with locals in foreign countries.  I've been astonished how quickly the walls of being a "stranger" can crumble when you can connect through language and sport...

[GDG's]

>>>I don't see many people talk about ancient Chinese coins. These are truly historically and culturally significant coins, but who really care to learn about them?

Not many.<<<

LOW,

The problem lies with the inability to easily find credible information on these coins along with the prolific counterfeiting. I would love to learn more on the ancient Chinese coins but it is not an easy thing to do. If you have a command of the language and knowledge of the ancient coins I would be buying the rarest ones up pronto. Unfortunately and don't speak the language and fear the counterfeits.

[poconopenn]

Here is the book for ancient Chinese coin published on line by British Museum in English. The book covers most ancient Chinese cash coins for more than 2000 years and contains clear pictures of more than 500 coins. You can download the book from the following link(free). This is a must read book for collectors of Chinese ancient coins.

http://www.britishmuseum.org/pdf/RP%20152%20Metall%20Analysis%20Chinese%20coins-Prelims-Appendix.pdf

[Biggold1]

wery good information about the baltimore show :) nice that there are some people who has interests like me :)