Author Topic: Daily muses, nonsensical ramblings, stimulating topics & world affairs  (Read 3899 times)

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Offline KeepOnTrying!

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20 years ago China started making great strides to become a manufacturing global powerhouse.  In early 2020 everyone believed this dominance would continue into the next decade, but Covid, shipping constraints, and continuing lockdowns has put future dominance into serious jeopardy.  The trend now is on shoring, which for US means bring manufacturing back to US, Mexico and Canada.  Demand for Mexico industrial buildings is at record levels with record development occurring.  With this in mind I am expanding my focus into Mexican coins.  Below are pics of 2017 and 2018 BU Libertad Kilos, take a look at their mintage numbers (200 and 500) and for small premium over melt these seem like a steal right now.  Someday they could trade at 5-10x melt.  Today there are fewer than 200 collectors that can afford a $1000 coin, so market has a long way before it matures.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertad_(coin)




I collect Libertads, Gold and Silver sets, but not consecutive year offerings. They are quite interesting. Unlike the Pandas their design doesn’t change often. They have been talking of a design change for almost 10 years now. Mintage figures are not known until the end of the year. At times it is a BU coin that gains more value compared to the proof coin; at other times the reverse is the case. The 2014 gold fractional set is currently one of the most valuable.
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Offline pandamonium

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Mexico is very safe, it is propaganda that doesn't want you to spend your tourist dollars over there so they create an illusion of fear.  I know people that operate real estate in Mexico City and they consider Chicago more dangerous. Chicago has 80 murders every 45 days.  I try to take the family to Cancun once a year, even during covid years. 

Somebody needs to create a marketing program for US Hispanic community, it doesn't take much to mop up 500 mintage coins.  I also think Mexico's currency will outperform the USD over the next 10 years. 

I hope nobody fell for the 8% a month UST and Terra Luna Ponzi scheme this week.  A coin collector explained this opportunity to me last fall, he said I could earn 100% annualized risk-free, I didn't believe him despite his account increasing 10-15% a month without any trading, just buy and hold.  From Monday to Friday he lost $700K, almost his entire net worth.  It was too good to be true and in a few days, investors in those risk-free stable coins lost $60B. 

https://www.coindesk.com/layer2/2022/05/11/the-luna-and-ust-crash-explained-in-5-charts/




I would never travel to Mexico as Charlie Min documentaries and online photos show many innocent dead in gruesome
fashion.  Will not travel to Chicago, NY, California, Southern States, Portland OR or Seattle WA.  Even our Governor of OR was voted the worst of all 50 states.  Our oil, diesel is shipped to Europe.  Our food to China.  Our baby formula to the border.  More debt too to destroy our economy/USD.  All planned.   Watch "2000 mules"....


Offline KeepOnTrying!

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FRIDAY RANT!
US stocks and bonds seem to be closer to the end of sell-offs. However, the nadir and sustained bounce up point are both unpredictable as usual. There is likely to be more blood letting in the interim and a recession seems to be around the corner.

I am not too worried about the US stock market. Those who needed cash should have withdrawn what they wanted when the Dow was at 35,000-36,000. It was clear that the market was overheated then. The question was what would get it going downhill. Now we know!

The more problematic issue is inflation and consumer confidence. One would assume the Feds knew what they were doing, but their messing with the market predated the current imbroglios. Furthermore, why be so extreme? Would a savings interest rate of 3.5% have tempered people’s reactions? It is unnatural to force on us the current almost negative interest rates for savings and money market funds.

Finally, what is a coin collector to do? I have no interest in selling. All I have been doing in the $1800+ spot price era has been to search for particular coins I needed and swallow the bile. Is there another strategy for these times?

Best of wishes and luck to everyone.

*Disclaimer: I am not a professional in this stuff.
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Offline pandamonium

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Search for articles that say the USA is exporting record amounts of oil, gas and diesel.   This is why gas is so high. The leaders are shutting down what is left of our economy and will greatly harm the USD.   Bullion, coins at some point will see huge gains.   The planned destruction of the US economy is in full swing.   To bring back the economy and protect the USD we need to keep the oil, gas and diesel for our own use but that is not the plan.  It is a planned destruction.  This also means the Yuan w/ China's huge gold reserve, will rise in value.   The best of Chinese money is what we collect here....

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Pandamonium came to mind when I saw this article. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/rich-dad-poor-dad-author-154627142.html

Offline Clark Smith

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Do you want to partner up ?    We will start selling Tuna-coin.     

One can of tuna for each coin is stored somewhere.

It it gets really successful then tuna will go extinct and the cans will be worth even more.

Offline pandamonium

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I agree to food supply.   Currently there are 95 food processing plants that somehow burned down recently.    Gas in parts of CA is almost $10 gallon.  How high gas before it all shuts down?   Stock market does not look good....

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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There is nothing wrong with the Market. The US stock market goes up and down in the short and medium term, and goes up in the longterm. An understanding of market mechanisms prevents making unwise moves with your funds. For example, now is not the time to withdraw funds from the market unless you want to use the loss as a tax write-off. Instead, this is time to deploy more cash. I moved extra cash lying around into the market yesterday and today. Meanwhile the bi-monthly direct debits are currently buying cheaper stocks. I don’t know when the bottom will be reached. If it goes down further, this may be the time to liquidate some coins for more cash to throw into the market. The market is correcting for the irrational exuberance of recent years. When it’s done, it will resume the perennial march to the top. Now constitutes a buying opportunity.

*This is not professional investment advice.
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Offline KeepOnTrying!

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The long term trend of a major US stockmarket index, The Dow Jones Industrial Average.
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Offline pandamonium

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Sell your Chinese and buy stocks.   jsmineset a few banks in China are going under. 

South China Morning Post "Fears of data abuse as China's health code turns red...."

M/P "Iran proposes new currency for trade w/ China, Russia, India, Pakistan in Shanghai's Cooperative Organization".

Bloomberg "US oil exports soar as world works to replace Russian supplies".

Big Country News "United States oil & petroleum exports hit record high".

Gas, diesel & Oil shipped overseas but not for US consumers.  Planned disaster....

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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I guess gold is a winner for the year, just don’t mind the loss in purchasing power of +10%.  Can’t wait to see next year winners and losers. 

Gold:     12,400 yuan today vs 11,400 yuan a year ago, +9%
Gold:     $1840 today vs $1810 a year ago, +2%
ShComp $3300 today vs $3500 a year ago, -6%
Silver:    $21.50 today vs $26.00 a year ago, -17%
Nasdaq: $10800 today vs $14800 a year ago, -27%
Bitcoin:  $20500 today vs $48000 a year ago, -36%

Offline Clark Smith

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Numismatic coins did better than gold bullion.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Good point, rarity never goes out of style.  I will let you come up with vintage examples, here are some early modern examples.

1982 1oz gold panda NGC MS69, $11000 today vs $7500 last year, +47%
1983 1/20oz gold panda NGC MS69, $1000 today vs $600 last year, +66%
1984 8g gold rat NGC PF69, $26000 today vs $12000 last year, +117%
1985 27g silver panda NGC PF69, $2500 today vs $1800 last year, +39%