Topic: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021

[pandamonium]

There are 120 modern lots, the most I have seen all year.  I am expecting very high prices unless new policy for mainlanders of no quarantine going into HK is reversed.  Travel into HK is still restricted so not sure how many dealers and investors will make the trip. 

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-T14VX/september-2021-hong-kong-auction-session-b-foreign-hong-kong-modern-chinese-coins-lots-20001-20642?categories=1-11F3S+1-11F22+1-11F22&limit=96&parent_category=1-11EIV

https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-health-travel-china-hong-kong-7f337f131ea650d43f31fa6c6e91b612

Here is KeyDate's link to the auction and there are gold pandas....

[rosab2000]

Thanks for the link.  I thought there were other and more pandas being sold.  The prices are pandas for them too and the kms sets are madness.  1oz 95 for $ 5600!  It doesn't matter if he's 66 or 69.  Insanity !!!  why is there no 1/2 ounce?  That would be the question of where the prices would have ended up .. I think high

[Birdman]

Thanks for the link.  I thought there were other and more pandas being sold.  The prices are pandas for them too and the kms sets are madness.  1oz 95 for $ 5600!  It doesn't matter if he's 66 or 69.  Insanity !!!  why is there no 1/2 ounce?  That would be the question of where the prices would have ended up .. I think high

Given the huge number of vintage coins listed in this auction, I was also surprised by the absence of key and semi-key gold pandas.  They aren't showing up in the major auctions and very few are listed for sale where they used to be readily available.

I wonder how many wealthy Chinese who saw prices run far higher than they expected for individual vintage coins in this auction, and who lost out in the bidding for expensive coins, might conclude that buying a master set of gold pandas (1982-2022) would be a nice place to put their profits from real estate, Bitcoin, etc.?  It wouldn't take too many orders to put significant upward pressure on some of the key and semi-key dates.

[rosab2000]

You should take your time, I'm working on my master set.  It's getting too expensive.  I was just surprised at the good prices of the 1oz 95!  And there is no difference at all between ms66 and 69?  I am very surprised

[KeyDate1/2ozPandas]

There is no supply of 1/2oz in the US market.  Even dates that are trading close to bullion are hard to find.  The supply of 1, 1/4, 1/10 and 1/20 are also hard to find. I think the dealers are scared to push prices up with supply so constraint, they are laying low and/or colluding to avoid pandamonium. When serious collector and investor money comes in, I can't even fathom where they are going to find coins to buy.

[Patschero]

The auction went crazy. The 150 Yuan Gold Lunar Year of the Goat usually costs no more than $ 800, here the coin was sold for over $ 2.600 - more than three times the price. https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-T1B1T/china-150-yuan-1991-lunar-series-year-of-the-goat-ngc-proof-69-ultra-cameo It´s just a common coin. Any idea for the high price? Thanks. 

[pandamonium]

There is no supply of 1/2oz in the US market.  Even dates that are trading close to bullion are hard to find.  The supply of 1, 1/4, 1/10 and 1/20 are also hard to find. I think the dealers are scared to push prices up with supply so constraint, they are laying low and/or colluding to avoid pandamonium. When serious collector and investor money comes in, I can't even fathom where they are going to find coins to buy.

When serious collector and investor money comes in       It will be pandamonium!
Maybe all those TV and on line people i have contacted over the years will kick this market off.  The world is aware of China's gold supply and that they were given the world economy so Chinese numismatics will make sense.   Some MCC are flat mostly silver, but i do not track the gold market much except some smalls.   This market is a big positive because there is so much negative news....

[rosab2000]

There is no supply of 1/2oz in the US market.  Even dates that are trading close to bullion are hard to find.  The supply of 1, 1/4, 1/10 and 1/20 are also hard to find. I think the dealers are scared to push prices up with supply so constraint, they are laying low and/or colluding to avoid pandamonium. When serious collector and investor money comes in, I can't even fathom where they are going to find coins to buy.

hm that's strange.  Almost no pandas were sold.  No 1/4 either.  What amazes me.  My contacts to China in Hong Kong and Shanghai now ask me for 1/2 pandas 02 and 96 every week.  You are looking for these two independently of each other.  Is 02 the new key?  I am surprised that no 94,95,98 is asked.  Always just the two.

[rosab2000]

The auction went crazy. The 150 Yuan Gold Lunar Year of the Goat usually costs no more than $ 800, here the coin was sold for over $ 2.600 - more than three times the price. https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-T1B1T/china-150-yuan-1991-lunar-series-year-of-the-goat-ngc-proof-69-ultra-cameo It´s just a common coin. Any idea for the high price? Thanks. 

Yes, this coin could also be bought much cheaper in Germany a long time ago.  But there are now almost no offers on the market.  ebay has also been empty since the fees were changed.  But my theory is that crypto currencies are getting more and more courageous here and are no longer interested in gold and silver coins and that is why the supply is so low

[KeyDate1/2ozPandas]

hm that's strange.  Almost no pandas were sold.  No 1/4 either.  What amazes me.  My contacts to China in Hong Kong and Shanghai now ask me for 1/2 pandas 02 and 96 every week.  You are looking for these two independently of each other.  Is 02 the new key?  I am surprised that no 94,95,98 is asked.  Always just the two.

I told you that 1998 and 1995 are the rarest 1/2 dates and your plan is to build complete master sets, then you would go out and buy those dates in quantity and price would rise.  As you build more sets you already have the key dates at that is what you believe, but then something happens you find that your are missing 1996 or 2002 and nobody has it, the price of those coins then suddenly rises making it the constraint coin to complete the set.  Of course someone that doesn't own any coins, will see 1995 and 1998 as the key, but someone that has been hoarding those years will find other coins become their keys.

All the 1/2 from 1990-2003 have similar NGC population reports, indicating they all are roughly equally rare. Why 1993 1/2 sell for $1500 and 1995 sells for $18,000 is hard to understand when their NGC pops are similar. If enough collectors and investors put away 1990-1993 1/2 (cheaper dates), they could easily be trading north of $5000.  It really is that easy.

[PandaCollector]

The populations in grading companies’ censuses are influenced by not only actual population size, but by the value of the coins that are submitted. There is much greater motivation to spend the time and money to grade an expensive coin than there is to grade one that sells closer to its intrinsic, or melt, value. This means that a higher proportion of the population of the rarest and most desirable coins get graded compared to more common issues. In fact, a single rare coin may be submitted and counted multiple times (Arif is exemplary in informing grading companies of this for his own submissions, but many people do not). Relative to their true population rare coins are often overrepresented in census counts.

This can help to explain the price differences between coins with similar census populations. The grading censuses are useful tools, but in regards to population sizes they tell only part of the story.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and` More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the Valentine Panda
PCGS Consultant
www.pandacollector.com

[rosab2000]

You are right @ peter, many submit 2 or 3 times to get a better result.  What surprises me is that the 1oz 95 in ms66 and in 69 almost achieved the same results.  It doesn't matter what kind of grading result you have or not.  This is insane.  I only try to find top quality pieces that bring 69 and 70

[rosab2000]

I told you that 1998 and 1995 are the rarest 1/2 dates and your plan is to build complete master sets, then you would go out and buy those dates in quantity and price would rise.  As you build more sets you already have the key dates at that is what you believe, but then something happens you find that your are missing 1996 or 2002 and nobody has it, the price of those coins then suddenly rises making it the constraint coin to complete the set.  Of course someone that doesn't own any coins, will see 1995 and 1998 as the key, but someone that has been hoarding those years will find other coins become their keys.

All the 1/2 from 1990-2003 have similar NGC population reports, indicating they all are roughly equally rare. Why 1993 1/2 sell for $1500 and 1995 sells for $18,000 is hard to understand when their NGC pops are similar. If enough collectors and investors put away 1990-1993 1/2 (cheaper dates), they could easily be trading north of $5000.  It really is that easy.

Sa you are right that may well be possible.  It really surprised me.  But you can see that all kinds of pandas are still running in China.  Nothing is rare and rare.  Only in other countries such as Germany and the USA is the supply becoming scarce.  I think foreign collectors from the usa and europe are driving the price up or is it the chinese?  Unfortunately, I can't see any buyers for the bids.  it would be nonsense for chinese people to bid such high stacks if you can get it cheaper in china.  Or do you mean, like some of my collector colleagues, that zao and jixx auction platforms show us wrong results and prices in order to buy even cheaper outside of china?

[Patschero]

Yes, this coin could also be bought much cheaper in Germany a long time ago.  But there are now almost no offers on the market.  ebay has also been empty since the fees were changed.  But my theory is that crypto currencies are getting more and more courageous here and are no longer interested in gold and silver coins and that is why the supply is so low

That´s really strange. Instead of more than  $ 2.600 you can still buy the coin for the hals price on ebay https://www.ebay.at/itm/1991-GOLD-CHINA-150-YUAN-8-GRAM-PROOF-LUNAR-YEAR-OF-THE-GOAT-NGC-PF-69-UC-/302898170930?mkevt=1&mkcid=1&mkrid=5221-53469-19255-0&campid=5336458434&customid=&toolid=10001

[pandamonium]

The populations in grading companies’ censuses are influenced by not only actual population size, but by the value of the coins that are submitted. There is much greater motivation to spend the time and money to grade an expensive coin than there is to grade one that sells closer to its intrinsic, or melt, value. This means that a higher proportion of the population of the rarest and most desirable coins get graded compared to more common issues. In fact, a single rare coin may be submitted and counted multiple times (Arif is exemplary in informing grading companies of this for his own submissions, but many people do not). Relative to their true population rare coins are often overrepresented in census counts.

This can help to explain the price differences between coins with similar census populations. The grading censuses are useful tools, but in regards to population sizes they tell only part of the story.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and` More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the Valentine Panda
PCGS Consultant
www.pandacollector.com

A detailed article w/ examples would really help many new collectors understand graded populations.   Could you write one?....