Author Topic: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021  (Read 2868 times)

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Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #45 on: October 01, 2021, 09:28:06 AM »




A detailed article w/ examples would really help many new collectors understand graded populations.   Could you write one?....

That's an excellent idea and I have put it on my to-do list.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and` More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the Valentine Panda
PCGS Consultant
www.pandacollector.com

Offline rosab2000

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #46 on: October 01, 2021, 10:34:10 AM »
Very good idee N34

Online KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #47 on: October 01, 2021, 11:04:35 AM »
A couple of comments regarding the last few posts:

1) Prior to master set demand for gold panda, it was true that only the rarer coins got graded while bullion issues remained intact.  Once master set demand started, the price for OMP or MS69 was identical and most dealers stopped submitting key coins for grading because you upside was tiny and omps are easier to ship or carry back to china.  Non key coins that dealers wanted to sell on ebay, their website or other auctions still were getting graded to reduce risk on these transactions.  I am more likely to submit 1992 1/2 OMP worth $1200 than 2002 1/2 OMP worth $4500, because 1992 1/2 MS69 is $1450 ($250 spread) while 2002 1/2 MS69 is $4600 ($100 spread).  I am no longer convinced that only better coins are getting graded, with exception of 1985-1988, which rarely are graded.

2) Re-grading accounts for 5-10% of the population for grades below MS69 and the number keeps declining as NGC has been more consistent, the chance of upgrading a recent submission is close to zero.  Also, US-based dealers typically turn in labels from cracked coins so those get removed population reports. I only look at MS69 populations so those number typically don't have regrades in them, because it is very rare someone will crack out a 69 pre-2003 coin to go for 70.  So in terms of total graded population of a coin the regrades might only be 2-4% extra, since 69 and 70 are not regarded and they often account for the majority of the population report.

3) For modern Chinese coins, public auctions account for less than 1-2% of total sales volume, almost the entire market is private transactions.  Of course, super rare coins and top pop coins might be auctioned 10-30% of the time.  What you see in the auction is not always a correct representation of what a coin will sell for even the same day in different city.  I can say with certainty that 1995 1oz MS66 will usually sell for 2K less than MS69.  Auction results can be skewed due to shill bidding, buyer not reading the description carefully (I have done it a few times), protecting your inventory (bid up something above market value to keep the book value of your inventory high, similar to corner the market), 2 bidders that don't have a clue or too much money to wait to buy the coin in the future, unknown variety, shipping constraints (covid has really shown how hard it is to move merchandise across the country and world), and import taxes. 

4)  Sales prices posted on ebay are not true transaction prices, if I list a coin for $1500 and someone sends me a question will you take $1400, if I reply to them with a $1400 personalized offer while keeping the ebay posted price at $1500, when they buy it using the personalized offer link, the coin will show that it sold for $1500 even though the true price was $1400.  This happens a lot so be careful when interpreting sold transaction price.

Offline rosab2000

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #48 on: October 01, 2021, 12:50:40 PM »
Thanks @ Keydate.  A very good explanation!  I couldn't believe that an Ms66 should be the same as an Ms69.  Otherwise, they explained it very well.  Thanks very much.  I hope that the master sets will be resurrected, but slowly please.  The supply on the market has already become very scarce.  Maybe it will turn again sometime.  But I think gold is just beginning.  And after the real estate scandal that will continue to circulate, and after crypto currencies are monitored more closely, some rich Chinese will certainly return to the coins.  And after the kms market and the dollar market have risen sharply, it should be the turn of modern coins

Online pandamonium

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #49 on: October 01, 2021, 04:27:57 PM »
Keydate, hopefully Pandacollector will allow your opinions and others into the article or add to it when posted here.  We need that info because for most new collectors the pop is very confusing, this market is confusing at times...


rosab2000  I agree, gold is beginning.  Rich Chinese will return to numismatic coins as it is huge value in a small package.  The world understands China owns the gold and China controls most of the West.  The world will wake up to Chinese money.  Bullion will go to the moon but rare numismatic Chinese will go to Pluto.  Hopefully this will not happen for some time as I need to prepare...