Author Topic: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021  (Read 2839 times)

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Offline Birdman

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Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« on: September 10, 2021, 02:23:58 PM »
Lots of coins coming up in the Stacks Auctions.  Looks like the auction house will have some healthy revenues.

Here are the upcoming pieces sorted by current bid value  https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots?sort=current_price_desc&parent_category=1-11EIV&limit=96&lots_range=upcoming


And the individual auctions are listed below.  Mark your calendar and check your bank account.

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-SX2I7/september-2021-hong-kong-auction-session-a-chinese-hong-kong-world-paper-money-lots-10001-10802

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-T14VX/september-2021-hong-kong-auction-session-b-foreign-hong-kong-modern-chinese-coins-lots-20001-20642

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-T1C58/september-2021-hong-kong-auction-session-c-vintage-chinese-coins-lots-21001-21639

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-T1ISL/september-2021-hong-kong-auction-session-d-chinese-provincial-coins-part-1-lots-22001-22375

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-T1OSV/september-2021-hong-kong-auction-session-e-chinese-provincial-coins-part-2-lots-23001-23415

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-T3JYQ/september-2021-hong-kong-auction-session-g-internet-only-hong-kong-modern-ancient-chinese-coins-lots-24001-24603

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-SY1AZ/september-2021-hong-kong-auction-session-f-internet-only-the-hobart-collection-chinese-paper-money-lots-11001-11655

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-T3OWD/september-2021-hong-kong-auction-session-i-internet-only-empire-republic-chinese-coins-lots-25001-25680

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-SXDC8/september-2021-hong-kong-auction-session-h-internet-only-vignettes-hong-kong-foreign-paper-money-lots-12001-12615

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-T4KAV/september-2021-hong-kong-auction-session-j-internet-only-chinese-provincial-coins-part-1-lots-26001-26496

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-T4R2K/september-2021-hong-kong-auction-session-k-internet-only-chinese-provincial-coins-part-2-lots-27001-27446

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-T5RD0/september-2021-hong-kong-auction-session-l-internet-only-chinese-provincial-coins-part-3-lots-28001-28551

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-T5YX1/september-2021-hong-kong-auction-session-m-internet-only-foreign-coins-lots-29001-30145

Offline ChineseCoinQuest

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2021, 09:30:57 AM »
Thanks for the link! It’s always exciting to see what’s being offered and on the flip side what’s not being offered.

Online xc

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2021, 01:41:36 PM »
Thanks for the info. It is an auction in HK. For a US collector, will there be any import tax and how is oversea shipping situation nowadays?

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2021, 09:35:52 PM »
Huge amount of listings.   I found a few but not many.  Where are the MCC?....


Offline pandamonium

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2021, 10:42:08 AM »
Thanks for the link but many MCC are missing.   Guess i will continue to go over the 60 pages on your first link provided on your first post.   Many of these listings are ancient or vintage.....

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2021, 11:55:00 AM »
There are 120 modern lots, the most I have seen all year.  I am expecting very high prices unless new policy for mainlanders of no quarantine going into HK is reversed.  Travel into HK is still restricted so not sure how many dealers and investors will make the trip. 

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-T14VX/september-2021-hong-kong-auction-session-b-foreign-hong-kong-modern-chinese-coins-lots-20001-20642?categories=1-11F3S+1-11F22+1-11F22&limit=96&parent_category=1-11EIV

https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-health-travel-china-hong-kong-7f337f131ea650d43f31fa6c6e91b612

Offline Birdman

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2021, 12:41:03 PM »
There are 120 modern lots, the most I have seen all year.  I am expecting very high prices unless new policy for mainlanders of no quarantine going into HK is reversed.  Travel into HK is still restricted so not sure how many dealers and investors will make the trip. 

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-T14VX/september-2021-hong-kong-auction-session-b-foreign-hong-kong-modern-chinese-coins-lots-20001-20642?categories=1-11F3S+1-11F22+1-11F22&limit=96&parent_category=1-11EIV

https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-health-travel-china-hong-kong-7f337f131ea650d43f31fa6c6e91b612

Scrolling through, I don't see any MS (non-proof) 1/2 ounce gold pandas, either as single coins or as part of a set.  Zero, from 1982 to 2021.  That seems pretty remarkable, given the overall number of coins being offered in these auctions.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2021, 04:25:00 PM »
There are 120 modern lots, the most I have seen all year.  I am expecting very high prices unless new policy for mainlanders of no quarantine going into HK is reversed.  Travel into HK is still restricted so not sure how many dealers and investors will make the trip. 

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-T14VX/september-2021-hong-kong-auction-session-b-foreign-hong-kong-modern-chinese-coins-lots-20001-20642?categories=1-11F3S+1-11F22+1-11F22&limit=96&parent_category=1-11EIV

https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-health-travel-china-hong-kong-7f337f131ea650d43f31fa6c6e91b612





Thanks for the additional link.  I chatted w/ a dealer and member here that is in HK or China and under quarantine too.  He is there for the auction, did not know......

Offline bonke

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2021, 08:12:51 PM »
Thanks for the links to the upcoming StacksBowers auctions.

I carefully looked through the various modern Chinese coins in the live and internet only auctions to determine whether there was anything I truly wanted without the opportunity to preview in person and, then, to determine the price I was willing to pay.  Surprisingly, there was little I wanted for my collection so the potential final bid (plus 20%) was not material.  I saw so many items which I do not own.  Still, as time passes, I am finding a lower interest level.  Next, I will look at the older (non-modern) Chinese coins.  Maybe, these will make me excited.

Mark Bonke

Offline Birdman

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2021, 08:40:52 PM »
Live bidding hasn't started yet, but a few have been bid up quite a bit already.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2021, 10:59:29 PM »
I didn't win anything in the Heritage auction last night and will not win anything in this auction either.  The market for lunars is in a multi-year bull market, I haven't listed a single lunar coin for sale in 2 years, they sell above market price before they even arrive.

There are two schools of thought about modern Chinese coins, 1) xi will kill the economy with his reforms against the rich and the market will crash, 2) xi will impose even stricter currency controls and monitor all your online assets so rich will buy collectibles to hide their wealth.   I am leaning towards the second scenario and would expect a super spike in some coins and would take advantage to sell into the strength.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2021, 08:47:48 AM »
I would agree w/ option 2) as gold/silver will soon take center stage.   It seems the option 1) is just a transfer of wealth from citizens to government....

Online xc

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Offline ChineseCoinQuest

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2021, 01:52:41 PM »
MS Empire Dragon dollars are really turning up, given there are high grade examples up for auction I would not be surprised to see record highs!  :ohmy: :thumbup:

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2021, 03:10:25 PM »
Year of Child pricing was all-time record.  Lunars Record pricing.

Offline panda

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2021, 09:44:40 PM »
Year of Child pricing was all-time record.

That's amazing!

Offline Birdman

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2021, 06:56:17 AM »
Very active bidding in last night's session  (the auction is still going this morning).  So many interesting results.  There were many rarities that went for huge prices, but one coin that caught my eye was this 1908 AU58--a coin that used to be available to people who weren't millionaires.  The fact that a less-than-mint-state example of this coin sold for over $33,000 is amazing.  I paid $850 for an MS61 back in 2010.  An MS62 went for $46,800 last night!

When this auction is over, it will be intriguing to hear what the total amount of money spent will be.  Such a huge number of coins, collectively going for record prices.  With the recent rulings against bitcoin in China and the increased sense of risk in the high-flying real estate market, it seems there is a massive flow of money from one asset class to another. 

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2021, 07:31:52 AM »
Silver dollars are the flagship of Vintage.  Prices have got to rise for the small sizes too at a faster pace, 50C, 20C, 10C & 5C.

This 1949 20 C XF Yunnan sold for $357 w/ ship.  They keep climbing even at very low grades on ebay...

It will be interesting how the small silver dragons price like the Yunnan, Kwangtung, etc...

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2021, 10:16:55 AM »
If I had only focused on vintage coins instead of modern coins I could be retiring now.  The appreciation of vintage coins during the last few years reminds us of the modern coin market during 2009-2011, coins went up 5x-20x in a short period of time.  It is hard to believe such a time can exist for any asset class, but now I have witnessed it twice in the last 12 years.   With China's real estate and stock markets plunging and bitcoin banned, the collectibles market will surely get attention. 

Offline ChineseCoinQuest

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #20 on: September 29, 2021, 11:41:32 AM »
Very active bidding in last night's session  (the auction is still going this morning).  So many interesting results.  There were many rarities that went for huge prices, but one coin that caught my eye was this 1908 AU58--a coin that used to be available to people who weren't millionaires.  The fact that a less-than-mint-state example of this coin sold for over $33,000 is amazing.  I paid $850 for an MS61 back in 2010.  An MS62 went for $46,800 last night!


When this auction is over, it will be intriguing to hear what the total amount of money spent will be.  Such a huge number of coins, collectively going for record prices.  With the recent rulings against bitcoin in China and the increased sense of risk in the high-flying real estate market, it seems there is a massive flow of money from one asset class to another. 

WOW NOW THATS A RETURN!!!!! Congrats!!🍾

I switched my focus from modern to vintage a few years ago, now I’m on the brink of shutting down my business and putting all my attention into Chinese numismatics. 

I really hope the market holds up, because man I love coins! 


Offline pandamonium

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #21 on: September 29, 2021, 01:40:43 PM »
If I had only focused on vintage coins instead of modern coins I could be retiring now.  The appreciation of vintage coins during the last few years reminds us of the modern coin market during 2009-2011, coins went up 5x-20x in a short period of time.  It is hard to believe such a time can exist for any asset class, but now I have witnessed it twice in the last 12 years.   With China's real estate and stock markets plunging and bitcoin banned, the collectibles market will surely get attention. 




MCC were somewhat flat at Stacks, but that is OK.  You still have time to get into Vintage.  The small silver dragons are still affordable and they will easily double in price from today.   I picked up several OMP & graded for $20 to $55 each a few years ago out of curiousity for the most part.  They did not get many bids or watchers.  Now the graded are $150 on up.   Even the low grade Details are moving up.  They will still rise in price as Vintage is the race horse for now.  Chinese collectibles are going to have their day and the small silver dragons will do very well too....

Offline Birdman

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #22 on: September 29, 2021, 03:40:21 PM »
I switched my focus from modern to vintage a few years ago

Yes, I think I sold you one of my vintage coins too soon.  I should have held onto that one  ;)  as it has zoomed up in value since then, judging from yesterday's auction results.  Oh well, at least that one went to a good home...and fortunately I have a few others remaining  :001_smile:

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #23 on: September 29, 2021, 08:11:43 PM »
WOW NOW THATS A RETURN!!!!! Congrats!!🍾

I switched my focus from modern to vintage a few years ago, now I’m on the brink of shutting down my business and putting all my attention into Chinese numismatics. 

I really hope the market holds up, because man I love coins! 

Don't quit your day job, what goes up can also come down, it is called financial gravity or stupidity.  In January 2009 I bought a few 1995 1oz gold panda proofs for $3000 from heritage sale, in July 2011 I sold them at $22,000-$23,000.  In 2018 I bought them back at $6,000-7,200, now I am sold out at $10,000.  Unless you are a trader you can't expect to retire with buy and hold mindset, because everything has cycles, even vintage.

Not everything about China is glowing, imagine them banning winter Olympic ticket sales to non-mainland fans, there are risks to every investment. 
https://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking-no-one-outside-of-china-allowed-to-attend-2022-winter-games-in-beijing

Offline bonke

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #24 on: September 29, 2021, 10:01:08 PM »
Arif

If the PRC does not permit "outsiders" to attend the winter events, this may be an act of kindness.  In 2008, my friends bought expensive tickets to the Olympic Summer Games opening ceremony and other events (at the official Olympic website).  Upon their arrival at the gate in Beijing for the opening ceremony, they were informed that their tickets were counterfeit.  Ouch!  They will certainly never become Chinese coin collectors and do not want to see any of my "Chinese stuff" when they visit my home.

Mark Bonke

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #25 on: September 29, 2021, 11:40:58 PM »
Another 1949 20C Yunnan sold  $625 w/ ship

the only difference is XF Details $357  VS  XF 45  $625


I am bullish.  Everything does have cycles but i still think gold/silver will begin a big up cycle and Chinese will too.  MCC maybe flat today but not for long.  World debt & fiat is unmanageable....

Offline ChineseCoinQuest

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #26 on: September 30, 2021, 01:41:36 AM »
Yes, I think I sold you one of my vintage coins too soon.  I should have held onto that one  ;)  as it has zoomed up in value since then, judging from yesterday's auction results.  Oh well, at least that one went to a good home...and fortunately I have a few others remaining  :001_smile:


Haha I feel your pain, I have many stories of both coins I have sold and coins I have passed on that still hurt. To be honest I still have not been able to find a better piece to replace, at least within my budget.

Offline ChineseCoinQuest

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #27 on: September 30, 2021, 01:47:06 AM »
Don't quit your day job, what goes up can also come down, it is called financial gravity or stupidity.  In January 2009 I bought a few 1995 1oz gold panda proofs for $3000 from heritage sale, in July 2011 I sold them at $22,000-$23,000.  In 2018 I bought them back at $6,000-7,200, now I am sold out at $10,000.  Unless you are a trader you can't expect to retire with buy and hold mindset, because everything has cycles, even vintage.

Not everything about China is glowing, imagine them banning winter Olympic ticket sales to non-mainland fans, there are risks to every investment. 
https://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking-no-one-outside-of-china-allowed-to-attend-2022-winter-games-in-beijing

Not quitting yet but tempting, I will be elevating my side gig to another level and will soon be starting a website to sell my doubles and other numismatics. I don’t want to pay eBay fees if possible. But without any disrespect the markets are completely different, imho pandas are still tied too close to bullion at least 95% of the series is, so I wouldn’t compare them apples to apples. Just my thought thought.

Offline ChineseCoinQuest

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #28 on: September 30, 2021, 01:53:55 AM »
Arif

If the PRC does not permit "outsiders" to attend the winter events, this may be an act of kindness.  In 2008, my friends bought expensive tickets to the Olympic Summer Games opening ceremony and other events (at the official Olympic website).  Upon their arrival at the gate in Beijing for the opening ceremony, they were informed that their tickets were counterfeit.  Ouch!  They will certainly never become Chinese coin collectors and do not want to see any of my "Chinese stuff" when they visit my home.

Mark Bonke

Not sure what this story has anything to do with chinese coin market beside some people you know having a bad experience in China as tourist, who knows where they got the tickets. Personally 90% of people I sell Chinese numismatics to now a days is either chinese or have some sort of Chinese heritage or middle man for China
coin buyer. You seem to always have a bad experience with Chinese coins, why do you deal with them?

Offline rosab2000

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #29 on: September 30, 2021, 04:03:50 AM »
were there also panda gold coins or am I blind.  I only find a handful of results on Stack

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #30 on: September 30, 2021, 07:32:55 AM »
There are 120 modern lots, the most I have seen all year.  I am expecting very high prices unless new policy for mainlanders of no quarantine going into HK is reversed.  Travel into HK is still restricted so not sure how many dealers and investors will make the trip. 

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-T14VX/september-2021-hong-kong-auction-session-b-foreign-hong-kong-modern-chinese-coins-lots-20001-20642?categories=1-11F3S+1-11F22+1-11F22&limit=96&parent_category=1-11EIV

https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-health-travel-china-hong-kong-7f337f131ea650d43f31fa6c6e91b612




Here is KeyDate's link to the auction and there are gold pandas....

Offline rosab2000

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #31 on: September 30, 2021, 09:05:03 AM »
Thanks for the link.  I thought there were other and more pandas being sold.  The prices are pandas for them too and the kms sets are madness.  1oz 95 for $ 5600!  It doesn't matter if he's 66 or 69.  Insanity !!!  why is there no 1/2 ounce?  That would be the question of where the prices would have ended up .. I think high

Offline Birdman

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #32 on: September 30, 2021, 09:24:56 AM »
Thanks for the link.  I thought there were other and more pandas being sold.  The prices are pandas for them too and the kms sets are madness.  1oz 95 for $ 5600!  It doesn't matter if he's 66 or 69.  Insanity !!!  why is there no 1/2 ounce?  That would be the question of where the prices would have ended up .. I think high

Given the huge number of vintage coins listed in this auction, I was also surprised by the absence of key and semi-key gold pandas.  They aren't showing up in the major auctions and very few are listed for sale where they used to be readily available.

I wonder how many wealthy Chinese who saw prices run far higher than they expected for individual vintage coins in this auction, and who lost out in the bidding for expensive coins, might conclude that buying a master set of gold pandas (1982-2022) would be a nice place to put their profits from real estate, Bitcoin, etc.?  It wouldn't take too many orders to put significant upward pressure on some of the key and semi-key dates.

Offline rosab2000

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #33 on: September 30, 2021, 09:30:13 AM »
You should take your time, I'm working on my master set.  It's getting too expensive.  I was just surprised at the good prices of the 1oz 95!  And there is no difference at all between ms66 and 69?  I am very surprised

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #34 on: September 30, 2021, 03:02:39 PM »
There is no supply of 1/2oz in the US market.  Even dates that are trading close to bullion are hard to find.  The supply of 1, 1/4, 1/10 and 1/20 are also hard to find. I think the dealers are scared to push prices up with supply so constraint, they are laying low and/or colluding to avoid pandamonium. When serious collector and investor money comes in, I can't even fathom where they are going to find coins to buy.

Offline Patschero

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #35 on: September 30, 2021, 03:34:00 PM »
The auction went crazy. The 150 Yuan Gold Lunar Year of the Goat usually costs no more than $ 800, here the coin was sold for over $ 2.600 - more than three times the price. https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-T1B1T/china-150-yuan-1991-lunar-series-year-of-the-goat-ngc-proof-69-ultra-cameo It´s just a common coin. Any idea for the high price? Thanks.  N13 N2

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #36 on: September 30, 2021, 04:47:15 PM »
There is no supply of 1/2oz in the US market.  Even dates that are trading close to bullion are hard to find.  The supply of 1, 1/4, 1/10 and 1/20 are also hard to find. I think the dealers are scared to push prices up with supply so constraint, they are laying low and/or colluding to avoid pandamonium. When serious collector and investor money comes in, I can't even fathom where they are going to find coins to buy.




When serious collector and investor money comes in       It will be pandamonium!
Maybe all those TV and on line people i have contacted over the years will kick this market off.  The world is aware of China's gold supply and that they were given the world economy so Chinese numismatics will make sense.   Some MCC are flat mostly silver, but i do not track the gold market much except some smalls.   This market is a big positive because there is so much negative news....

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #37 on: October 01, 2021, 12:00:21 AM »
There is no supply of 1/2oz in the US market.  Even dates that are trading close to bullion are hard to find.  The supply of 1, 1/4, 1/10 and 1/20 are also hard to find. I think the dealers are scared to push prices up with supply so constraint, they are laying low and/or colluding to avoid pandamonium. When serious collector and investor money comes in, I can't even fathom where they are going to find coins to buy.


hm that's strange.  Almost no pandas were sold.  No 1/4 either.  What amazes me.  My contacts to China in Hong Kong and Shanghai now ask me for 1/2 pandas 02 and 96 every week.  You are looking for these two independently of each other.  Is 02 the new key?  I am surprised that no 94,95,98 is asked.  Always just the two.

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #38 on: October 01, 2021, 12:02:44 AM »
The auction went crazy. The 150 Yuan Gold Lunar Year of the Goat usually costs no more than $ 800, here the coin was sold for over $ 2.600 - more than three times the price. https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-T1B1T/china-150-yuan-1991-lunar-series-year-of-the-goat-ngc-proof-69-ultra-cameo It´s just a common coin. Any idea for the high price? Thanks.  N13 N2

Yes, this coin could also be bought much cheaper in Germany a long time ago.  But there are now almost no offers on the market.  ebay has also been empty since the fees were changed.  But my theory is that crypto currencies are getting more and more courageous here and are no longer interested in gold and silver coins and that is why the supply is so low

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #39 on: October 01, 2021, 01:46:47 AM »
hm that's strange.  Almost no pandas were sold.  No 1/4 either.  What amazes me.  My contacts to China in Hong Kong and Shanghai now ask me for 1/2 pandas 02 and 96 every week.  You are looking for these two independently of each other.  Is 02 the new key?  I am surprised that no 94,95,98 is asked.  Always just the two.

I told you that 1998 and 1995 are the rarest 1/2 dates and your plan is to build complete master sets, then you would go out and buy those dates in quantity and price would rise.  As you build more sets you already have the key dates at that is what you believe, but then something happens you find that your are missing 1996 or 2002 and nobody has it, the price of those coins then suddenly rises making it the constraint coin to complete the set.  Of course someone that doesn't own any coins, will see 1995 and 1998 as the key, but someone that has been hoarding those years will find other coins become their keys.

All the 1/2 from 1990-2003 have similar NGC population reports, indicating they all are roughly equally rare. Why 1993 1/2 sell for $1500 and 1995 sells for $18,000 is hard to understand when their NGC pops are similar. If enough collectors and investors put away 1990-1993 1/2 (cheaper dates), they could easily be trading north of $5000.  It really is that easy.

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #40 on: October 01, 2021, 02:46:54 AM »
The populations in grading companies’ censuses are influenced by not only actual population size, but by the value of the coins that are submitted. There is much greater motivation to spend the time and money to grade an expensive coin than there is to grade one that sells closer to its intrinsic, or melt, value. This means that a higher proportion of the population of the rarest and most desirable coins get graded compared to more common issues. In fact, a single rare coin may be submitted and counted multiple times (Arif is exemplary in informing grading companies of this for his own submissions, but many people do not). Relative to their true population rare coins are often overrepresented in census counts.

This can help to explain the price differences between coins with similar census populations. The grading censuses are useful tools, but in regards to population sizes they tell only part of the story.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and` More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the Valentine Panda
PCGS Consultant
www.pandacollector.com

Offline rosab2000

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #41 on: October 01, 2021, 03:57:32 AM »
You are right @ peter, many submit 2 or 3 times to get a better result.  What surprises me is that the 1oz 95 in ms66 and in 69 almost achieved the same results.  It doesn't matter what kind of grading result you have or not.  This is insane.  I only try to find top quality pieces that bring 69 and 70

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #42 on: October 01, 2021, 04:01:30 AM »
I told you that 1998 and 1995 are the rarest 1/2 dates and your plan is to build complete master sets, then you would go out and buy those dates in quantity and price would rise.  As you build more sets you already have the key dates at that is what you believe, but then something happens you find that your are missing 1996 or 2002 and nobody has it, the price of those coins then suddenly rises making it the constraint coin to complete the set.  Of course someone that doesn't own any coins, will see 1995 and 1998 as the key, but someone that has been hoarding those years will find other coins become their keys.

All the 1/2 from 1990-2003 have similar NGC population reports, indicating they all are roughly equally rare. Why 1993 1/2 sell for $1500 and 1995 sells for $18,000 is hard to understand when their NGC pops are similar. If enough collectors and investors put away 1990-1993 1/2 (cheaper dates), they could easily be trading north of $5000.  It really is that easy.

Sa you are right that may well be possible.  It really surprised me.  But you can see that all kinds of pandas are still running in China.  Nothing is rare and rare.  Only in other countries such as Germany and the USA is the supply becoming scarce.  I think foreign collectors from the usa and europe are driving the price up or is it the chinese?  Unfortunately, I can't see any buyers for the bids.  it would be nonsense for chinese people to bid such high stacks if you can get it cheaper in china.  Or do you mean, like some of my collector colleagues, that zao and jixx auction platforms show us wrong results and prices in order to buy even cheaper outside of china?

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #43 on: October 01, 2021, 04:05:39 AM »
Yes, this coin could also be bought much cheaper in Germany a long time ago.  But there are now almost no offers on the market.  ebay has also been empty since the fees were changed.  But my theory is that crypto currencies are getting more and more courageous here and are no longer interested in gold and silver coins and that is why the supply is so low

That´s really strange. Instead of more than  $ 2.600 you can still buy the coin for the hals price on ebay https://www.ebay.at/itm/1991-GOLD-CHINA-150-YUAN-8-GRAM-PROOF-LUNAR-YEAR-OF-THE-GOAT-NGC-PF-69-UC-/302898170930?mkevt=1&mkcid=1&mkrid=5221-53469-19255-0&campid=5336458434&customid=&toolid=10001

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #44 on: October 01, 2021, 08:28:40 AM »
The populations in grading companies’ censuses are influenced by not only actual population size, but by the value of the coins that are submitted. There is much greater motivation to spend the time and money to grade an expensive coin than there is to grade one that sells closer to its intrinsic, or melt, value. This means that a higher proportion of the population of the rarest and most desirable coins get graded compared to more common issues. In fact, a single rare coin may be submitted and counted multiple times (Arif is exemplary in informing grading companies of this for his own submissions, but many people do not). Relative to their true population rare coins are often overrepresented in census counts.

This can help to explain the price differences between coins with similar census populations. The grading censuses are useful tools, but in regards to population sizes they tell only part of the story.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and` More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the Valentine Panda
PCGS Consultant
www.pandacollector.com





A detailed article w/ examples would really help many new collectors understand graded populations.   Could you write one?....

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #45 on: October 01, 2021, 09:28:06 AM »




A detailed article w/ examples would really help many new collectors understand graded populations.   Could you write one?....

That's an excellent idea and I have put it on my to-do list.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and` More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide
Home of the Valentine Panda
PCGS Consultant
www.pandacollector.com

Offline rosab2000

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #46 on: October 01, 2021, 10:34:10 AM »
Very good idee N34

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #47 on: October 01, 2021, 11:04:35 AM »
A couple of comments regarding the last few posts:

1) Prior to master set demand for gold panda, it was true that only the rarer coins got graded while bullion issues remained intact.  Once master set demand started, the price for OMP or MS69 was identical and most dealers stopped submitting key coins for grading because you upside was tiny and omps are easier to ship or carry back to china.  Non key coins that dealers wanted to sell on ebay, their website or other auctions still were getting graded to reduce risk on these transactions.  I am more likely to submit 1992 1/2 OMP worth $1200 than 2002 1/2 OMP worth $4500, because 1992 1/2 MS69 is $1450 ($250 spread) while 2002 1/2 MS69 is $4600 ($100 spread).  I am no longer convinced that only better coins are getting graded, with exception of 1985-1988, which rarely are graded.

2) Re-grading accounts for 5-10% of the population for grades below MS69 and the number keeps declining as NGC has been more consistent, the chance of upgrading a recent submission is close to zero.  Also, US-based dealers typically turn in labels from cracked coins so those get removed population reports. I only look at MS69 populations so those number typically don't have regrades in them, because it is very rare someone will crack out a 69 pre-2003 coin to go for 70.  So in terms of total graded population of a coin the regrades might only be 2-4% extra, since 69 and 70 are not regarded and they often account for the majority of the population report.

3) For modern Chinese coins, public auctions account for less than 1-2% of total sales volume, almost the entire market is private transactions.  Of course, super rare coins and top pop coins might be auctioned 10-30% of the time.  What you see in the auction is not always a correct representation of what a coin will sell for even the same day in different city.  I can say with certainty that 1995 1oz MS66 will usually sell for 2K less than MS69.  Auction results can be skewed due to shill bidding, buyer not reading the description carefully (I have done it a few times), protecting your inventory (bid up something above market value to keep the book value of your inventory high, similar to corner the market), 2 bidders that don't have a clue or too much money to wait to buy the coin in the future, unknown variety, shipping constraints (covid has really shown how hard it is to move merchandise across the country and world), and import taxes. 

4)  Sales prices posted on ebay are not true transaction prices, if I list a coin for $1500 and someone sends me a question will you take $1400, if I reply to them with a $1400 personalized offer while keeping the ebay posted price at $1500, when they buy it using the personalized offer link, the coin will show that it sold for $1500 even though the true price was $1400.  This happens a lot so be careful when interpreting sold transaction price.

Offline rosab2000

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #48 on: October 01, 2021, 12:50:40 PM »
Thanks @ Keydate.  A very good explanation!  I couldn't believe that an Ms66 should be the same as an Ms69.  Otherwise, they explained it very well.  Thanks very much.  I hope that the master sets will be resurrected, but slowly please.  The supply on the market has already become very scarce.  Maybe it will turn again sometime.  But I think gold is just beginning.  And after the real estate scandal that will continue to circulate, and after crypto currencies are monitored more closely, some rich Chinese will certainly return to the coins.  And after the kms market and the dollar market have risen sharply, it should be the turn of modern coins

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Stacks Auctions. Sept/Oct 2021
« Reply #49 on: October 01, 2021, 04:27:57 PM »
Keydate, hopefully Pandacollector will allow your opinions and others into the article or add to it when posted here.  We need that info because for most new collectors the pop is very confusing, this market is confusing at times...


rosab2000  I agree, gold is beginning.  Rich Chinese will return to numismatic coins as it is huge value in a small package.  The world understands China owns the gold and China controls most of the West.  The world will wake up to Chinese money.  Bullion will go to the moon but rare numismatic Chinese will go to Pluto.  Hopefully this will not happen for some time as I need to prepare...